Galactic Chase-Emperor's Shuttle [MEGA]

Replies

  • I should point out that if you're hoping to get a blueprint drop that's well above the average, you'll have a better chance with 8-energy nodes, simply because you have more attempts and can tolerate more fails. So, if you want to roll the dice ... ("Do I feel lucky?")

    @OldBaldOneKenobi that's all only applicable if they treat a node as a single trial. If they treat an 8-energy node as 8 trials with 4% chance each of dropping a Palpmobile shard, whereas a 20-energy node gives you 20 trials, then the resulting binomial distributions are identical and it makes no difference at all.

    This would be a distribution with very high variance, and spending the "average" amount of energy to get a 5* Palpmobile (3,625 energy), would really only give you about a 51% chance to actually get him to 5* (or higher), with a 49% chance of falling short.

    Now that people have started simming, have people seen multiple drops from a single sim? That would mean it is definitely the latter happening.
  • enlguy wrote: »
    @jkray622 Appreciate the reply. I wish they hadn't gone out of their way to say midnight your local time, then, but that makes sense. I'll just keep my eye out.

    It's probably when your daily activities reset? They periodically say things like that, which often lead to confusion. :P
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  • Did some calculations myself. It is definitely advantageous to farm the more expensive nodes:
    For at least a 95% chance of unlock (80 shards):
    109 farms of the 20-energy node (2180 energy total)
    139 farms of the 16-energy node (2224 energy total)
    230 farms of the 10-energy node (2300 energy total)
    289 farms of the 8-energy node (2312 energy total)
  • OldBaldOneKenobi
    34 posts Member
    edited February 2019
    Acrofales wrote: »
    @OldBaldOneKenobi that's all only applicable if they treat a node as a single trial. If they treat an 8-energy node as 8 trials with 4% chance each of dropping a Palpmobile shard, whereas a 20-energy node gives you 20 trials, then the resulting binomial distributions are identical and it makes no difference at all.

    I'll refer to the OP:
    This new ship's blueprints have a drop rate of 4% per point of Ship Energy per attempt (8 = 32%, 10 = 40%, 16 = 64%, 20 = 80%). Please note that each attempt is an independent event.[italics=my emphasis]
    Acrofales wrote: »
    This would be a distribution with very high variance, and spending the "average" amount of energy to get a 5* Palpmobile (3,625 energy), would really only give you about a 51% chance to actually get him to 5* (or higher), with a 49% chance of falling short.
    Yes. Exactly my point. If one wants a higher probability of success, then one should budget that into their planning. Except that it's only about 2000 energy on average.
  • Did some calculations myself. It is definitely advantageous to farm the more expensive nodes:
    For at least a 95% chance of unlock (80 shards):
    109 farms of the 20-energy node (2180 energy total)
    139 farms of the 16-energy node (2224 energy total)
    230 farms of the 10-energy node (2300 energy total)
    289 farms of the 8-energy node (2312 energy total)

    That matches my calculations. Of course, if you're the "never tell me the odds" kind of person ...
  • ozop9rkui22o.png
    And it's already broken

    So glad I used crystals to top up.
  • Weasel move to reduce the fleet energy pack from daily buy - to buy once only.

    Typo correction? I think not.

    Obviously the accountants got wind of players preloading energy and determining that a 7* unlock was achievable without significant impost if energy packs were available daily.
  • UdalCuain
    4996 posts Member
    edited February 2019
    Jedi_of_Oz wrote: »
    Weasel move to reduce the fleet energy pack from daily buy - to buy once only.

    Typo correction? I think not.

    Obviously the accountants got wind of players preloading energy and determining that a 7* unlock was achievable without significant impost if energy packs were available daily.

    Thought those energy packs were one purchase only anyway. They are there for one day only, if you buy it it goes and comes back a week or two later.

    Edit: I'm right. See this thread from January and read the energy pack details. I'm taking "day" as the 24 hour period the pack is available for: https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/192437/content-update-1-9-2019
  • Jedi_of_Oz wrote: »
    Weasel move to reduce the fleet energy pack from daily buy - to buy once only.

    Typo correction? I think not.

    Obviously the accountants got wind of players preloading energy and determining that a 7* unlock was achievable without significant impost if energy packs were available daily.

    Thought those energy packs were one purchase only anyway. They are there for one day only, if you buy it it goes and comes back a week or two later.

    Edit: I'm right. See this thread from January and read the energy pack details. I'm taking "day" as the 24 hour period the pack is available for: https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/192437/content-update-1-9-2019

    I'm aware of the typical frequency and limits applying to the these packs. But the content update text yesterday specifically stated you could buy packs daily without restrictions.
  • Jedi_of_Oz wrote: »
    Jedi_of_Oz wrote: »
    Weasel move to reduce the fleet energy pack from daily buy - to buy once only.

    Typo correction? I think not.

    Obviously the accountants got wind of players preloading energy and determining that a 7* unlock was achievable without significant impost if energy packs were available daily.

    Thought those energy packs were one purchase only anyway. They are there for one day only, if you buy it it goes and comes back a week or two later.

    Edit: I'm right. See this thread from January and read the energy pack details. I'm taking "day" as the 24 hour period the pack is available for: https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/192437/content-update-1-9-2019

    I'm aware of the typical frequency and limits applying to the these packs. But the content update text yesterday specifically stated you could buy packs daily without restrictions.

    Sorry, my bad. Missed that sneaky edit. Looks like a copy and paste job and they just change the date each time.
  • crzydroid wrote: »
    I should point out that if you're hoping to get a blueprint drop that's well above the average, you'll have a better chance with 8-energy nodes, simply because you have more attempts and can tolerate more fails. So, if you want to roll the dice ... ("Do I feel lucky?")

    It is literally the same chance. The drop rate scales on energy cost. It is an expected value of 25 energy per blueprint no matter what kind of node you farm.

    I don't think either of you are correct. Let's compare 10 and 20 energy nodes. The cumulative probability of 2 independent events with 0.4 probability each is not 0.8 but 1 - (0.6)^2 = 0.64. In other words, two 10-energy nodes only have a 64% chance of dropping a shard.

    Of course this assumes that there is only one RNG calculation per node with an actual 40% and 80% chance for 10- and 20-energy nodes, respectively. If each energy point were an individual event with 0.04 probability, it would indeed make no difference, but then the cumulative probability of a 20-energy-node attempt would only be 1 - (0.96)^20 = 0.56.


  • Nauros
    5429 posts Member
    crzydroid wrote: »
    I should point out that if you're hoping to get a blueprint drop that's well above the average, you'll have a better chance with 8-energy nodes, simply because you have more attempts and can tolerate more fails. So, if you want to roll the dice ... ("Do I feel lucky?")

    It is literally the same chance. The drop rate scales on energy cost. It is an expected value of 25 energy per blueprint no matter what kind of node you farm.

    I don't think either of you are correct. Let's compare 10 and 20 energy nodes. The cumulative probability of 2 independent events with 0.4 probability each is not 0.8 but 1 - (0.6)^2 = 0.64. In other words, two 10-energy nodes only have a 64% chance of dropping a shard.

    Of course this assumes that there is only one RNG calculation per node with an actual 40% and 80% chance for 10- and 20-energy nodes, respectively. If each energy point were an individual event with 0.04 probability, it would indeed make no difference, but then the cumulative probability of a 20-energy-node attempt would only be 1 - (0.96)^20 = 0.56.


    You need to account for the chance to get two shards from two 10 energy pulls as well, which is 16%. Your 64% is the probability of getting any shards, 1-(probability of getting nothing). This contains the probability to get exactly one shard (2x0,4x0,6) and the probability of two shards (0,4x0,4). On average, you will get to the same amount of shards either way.
  • Seeing that a few others have the same issues I am having with the fleet battles. Hopefully it will get noticed and fixed quickly
  • I just bought like 300 crystals of fleet energy before the emperor's shuttle event started...and i can't use it... game is bugged on fleet battles...😠😠😠😠😠😠😠
  • WreckingGamer
    11 posts Member
    edited February 2019
    At least it isn't a legendary where you have to use ANY 7 rebel ships to unlock it.
  • I got 18 shards off 400energy
  • ATAT1977
    36 posts Member
    edited February 2019
    @CG_SBCrumb what’s up with this ? Shenanigans, come on man, was the ship too cheap for us ?
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  • Nauros wrote: »
    crzydroid wrote: »
    I should point out that if you're hoping to get a blueprint drop that's well above the average, you'll have a better chance with 8-energy nodes, simply because you have more attempts and can tolerate more fails. So, if you want to roll the dice ... ("Do I feel lucky?")

    It is literally the same chance. The drop rate scales on energy cost. It is an expected value of 25 energy per blueprint no matter what kind of node you farm.

    I don't think either of you are correct. Let's compare 10 and 20 energy nodes. The cumulative probability of 2 independent events with 0.4 probability each is not 0.8 but 1 - (0.6)^2 = 0.64. In other words, two 10-energy nodes only have a 64% chance of dropping a shard.

    Of course this assumes that there is only one RNG calculation per node with an actual 40% and 80% chance for 10- and 20-energy nodes, respectively. If each energy point were an individual event with 0.04 probability, it would indeed make no difference, but then the cumulative probability of a 20-energy-node attempt would only be 1 - (0.96)^20 = 0.56.


    You need to account for the chance to get two shards from two 10 energy pulls as well, which is 16%. Your 64% is the probability of getting any shards, 1-(probability of getting nothing). This contains the probability to get exactly one shard (2x0,4x0,6) and the probability of two shards (0,4x0,4). On average, you will get to the same amount of shards either way.

    Doh. You're right :) I didn't consider that.
  • Midnight local time? Personal reset time (if you changed it)? Or midnight "somewhere"? When does this thing drop?
    In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie

    In game guild: TNR Uprising
    I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
    *This space left intentionally blank*
  • Nikoms565 wrote: »
    Midnight local time? Personal reset time (if you changed it)? Or midnight "somewhere"? When does this thing drop?

    Has to be midnight where you set it. I switched to an Asian Tz and was there since 12pm (est)
  • Está roto. Se nota habrá fila para entrar a esta ruleta de cristales.beannmh6j429.png
  • crzydroid wrote: »
    DEV POST
    CG_SBCrumb wrote: »
    Not working for me shuttle drop won’t show up:(

    Hi Holotable Heroes,

    We are introducing Galactic Chase, a new type of event! During a Galactic Chase, you can earn shards or blueprints for a new character or ship by playing a particular type of node (hard, Dark Side, Cantina, Fleet, etc.).

    Starting on midnight February 8th (Player Local Time), blueprints for the EMPEROR’S SHUTTLE will be available as a bonus reward on any Fleet Battles node until February 12th!

    This new ship's blueprints have a drop rate of 4% per point of Ship Energy per attempt (8 = 32%, 10 = 40%, 16 = 64%, 20 = 80%). Please note that each attempt is an independent event.


    DEV POST

  • Will the shuttle appear in tomorrows platoons?
  • So far so not good.....
  • I wonder how this passed testing..

    Can we get 5 shards compensation pretty please?
  • Gorem
    1190 posts Member
    Almost unlocked mine already, at 79/80 shards (typical)

    Experiences, Did a 8 hit on a 20 node, got 8 shards.

    Did multiple 20 hits on 10 nrg nodes, got between 8-12 on a constant basis.

    It is pretty average between them even in best case scenarios, So farm for whatever you want I say... but man do I wish Fleet nrg cost only 50 to refresh to start with... What do they think it is, Catina!?
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