Got 2K guild currency for over a week.
no Logray and I missed no refresh.
Spend all my currency, appears 4 time in a row...
Stopped farming because p*ssed, appears on a more regular base...
CG not messing around ? I doubt it...

The lesson should be that you always need to have say 900 spare guild currency just in case he shows up. If you actually wanted to be farming Logray you would have been smart and not spent that 2k guild currency.

Do you honestly think that CG personally goes into YOUR account, waits till you have spent all of your guild currency AND THEN places Logray in the shop?? Come on..

You're naive if you think they arent harvesting every piece of data and using that to set variables. They will know absolutely everything about your playing and spending habits and will adjust rates accordingly to trigger a response (i.e spending money on crystals to get Logray).

Since posting above 3 weeks ago, he's appeared twice for me. Both times when I had no currency. That's not confirmation bias when more than 1 person experiences it...

More than one person experiencing something doesn't mean it isnt confirmation bias. It could just be more than one person with confirmation bias.

I have a screenshot showing I was at 226/330 on Feb 11th. In the following 20 days he showed up 20 times in Guild Store (no refreshes), and as a reward for the Ewok event once. I think that was above standard for the guild store, but certainly seems to point towards disproving the coding conspiracy you've presented and lends itself towards RNG being both bane and boon.

It's not a coding conspiracy - it's industry standard in P2W games. It's how they set prices, know when to market, and as the guy above posted, when to remove buttons like 'buy now'.

I dont doubt they have meta data on app usage. What I do doubt is that in a P2W game, they would use dynamic odds for their RNG in areas affected by Crystals (i.e. money). Seems like they'd be exposing themselves to more legal headaches than such a scam would be worth.

What legal headache? Quite the opposite. Dynamic changing of odds (or Dynamic Serving of content) happens in every game and is covered in the EULA. Dynamic meaning it requires user inputs - your metrics in this instance.

I have exteme doubts on this as well. All that odds manipulation at play, and CG hasn't made a single mistake that exposes it?

On the heels of a botched GA scheduling, I am extemely skeptical.

It's not odds manipulation though. It's content purchased by virtual currency and has no stated odds of appearing. Someone further up has crazily suggested it's 16% cause it's a 6 character rotation which is just plain wrong.

What's the point in it being on a rotation if the purpose is not to enable the manipulation of it appearing? There is code driving it's appearance rate, and they will be determined by variables that includes your metrics (one of which is your propensity to purchase)

The purpose of putting it into a rotation is to manipulate how often it appears based on how many other items are in the rotation. Nothing more.

6 items? You have a 1 in 6 chance (roughly 16%).

If you want to claim otherwise you'll have to collect data and share it, otherwise it's just speculation.

It's not odds manipulation though. It's content purchased by virtual currency and has no stated odds of appearing. Someone further up has crazily suggested it's 16% cause it's a 6 character rotation which is just plain wrong.

What's the point in it being on a rotation if the purpose is not to enable the manipulation of it appearing? There is code driving it's appearance rate, and they will be determined by variables that includes your metrics (one of which is your propensity to purchase)

Based on my data, it tracked pretty close to 16% when looked at over 85 days. 54 purchases in 340 refreshes. Not gonna lie, I didnt believe it was 16% either.

And Im just saying that with so much user data going into such a calculation, seems slim odds that game updates wouldnt accidentally break that at least once...

Not if they aren't being amended tho. And yes the 16% should hold over a large array of data. That's the issue here. Your small sample leveled at 16%. I and others have said this isn't our experience. For example, if I see 3 mob enforcers in a day, then the drop rate for logray is not 16% - it's 6^3 (provided there are 6 toons rotating that instance). Even if I saw logray 16% of the time in 100 instances, that would equal once every 6 days. That's 222 days to get 185 shards. 5 a day every 6 days

Your math here is off. 16% of the time on 100 attempts means 80 shards in 25 days or an average of 3.2 shards a day. About 100 days to farm from 0 to 330 shards with no guild shop refreshes or Ewok Event assistanc.

It's not odds manipulation though. It's content purchased by virtual currency and has no stated odds of appearing. Someone further up has crazily suggested it's 16% cause it's a 6 character rotation which is just plain wrong.

What's the point in it being on a rotation if the purpose is not to enable the manipulation of it appearing? There is code driving it's appearance rate, and they will be determined by variables that includes your metrics (one of which is your propensity to purchase)

Based on my data, it tracked pretty close to 16% when looked at over 85 days. 54 purchases in 340 refreshes. Not gonna lie, I didnt believe it was 16% either.

And Im just saying that with so much user data going into such a calculation, seems slim odds that game updates wouldnt accidentally break that at least once...

Not if they aren't being amended tho. And yes the 16% should hold over a large array of data. That's the issue here. Your small sample leveled at 16%. I and others have said this isn't our experience. For example, if I see 3 mob enforcers in a day, then the drop rate for logray is not 16% - it's 6^3 (provided there are 6 toons rotating that instance). Even if I saw logray 16% of the time in 100 instances, that would equal once every 6 days. That's 222 days to get 185 shards. 5 a day every 6 days

Your math here is off. 16% of the time on 100 attempts means 80 shards in 25 days or an average of 3.2 shards a day. About 100 days to farm from 0 to 330 shards with no guild shop refreshes or Ewok Event assistanc.

Yes I tried to amend it but it got stopped by moderator. It's 3 times per day so it's a 3rd of that. But it's still the same basis. Purely stating it's 16% suggests I should see him once every 2 days.

And to the guy above about data....you just dismissing half the posters on this thread as liars?

It's not odds manipulation though. It's content purchased by virtual currency and has no stated odds of appearing. Someone further up has crazily suggested it's 16% cause it's a 6 character rotation which is just plain wrong.

What's the point in it being on a rotation if the purpose is not to enable the manipulation of it appearing? There is code driving it's appearance rate, and they will be determined by variables that includes your metrics (one of which is your propensity to purchase)

Based on my data, it tracked pretty close to 16% when looked at over 85 days. 54 purchases in 340 refreshes. Not gonna lie, I didnt believe it was 16% either.

And Im just saying that with so much user data going into such a calculation, seems slim odds that game updates wouldnt accidentally break that at least once...

Not if they aren't being amended tho. And yes the 16% should hold over a large array of data. That's the issue here. Your small sample leveled at 16%. I and others have said this isn't our experience. For example, if I see 3 mob enforcers in a day, then the drop rate for logray is not 16% - it's 6^3 (provided there are 6 toons rotating that instance). Even if I saw logray 16% of the time in 100 instances, that would equal once every 6 days. That's 222 days to get 185 shards. 5 a day every 6 days

Your math here is off. 16% of the time on 100 attempts means 80 shards in 25 days or an average of 3.2 shards a day. About 100 days to farm from 0 to 330 shards with no guild shop refreshes or Ewok Event assistanc.

Yes I tried to amend it but it got stopped by moderator. It's 3 times per day so it's a 3rd of that. But it's still the same basis. Purely stating it's 16% suggests I should see him once every 2 days.

And to the guy above about data....you just dismissing half the posters on this thread as liars?

It's not odds manipulation though. It's content purchased by virtual currency and has no stated odds of appearing. Someone further up has crazily suggested it's 16% cause it's a 6 character rotation which is just plain wrong.

What's the point in it being on a rotation if the purpose is not to enable the manipulation of it appearing? There is code driving it's appearance rate, and they will be determined by variables that includes your metrics (one of which is your propensity to purchase)

Based on my data, it tracked pretty close to 16% when looked at over 85 days. 54 purchases in 340 refreshes. Not gonna lie, I didnt believe it was 16% either.

And Im just saying that with so much user data going into such a calculation, seems slim odds that game updates wouldnt accidentally break that at least once...

Not if they aren't being amended tho. And yes the 16% should hold over a large array of data. That's the issue here. Your small sample leveled at 16%. I and others have said this isn't our experience. For example, if I see 3 mob enforcers in a day, then the drop rate for logray is not 16% - it's 6^3 (provided there are 6 toons rotating that instance). Even if I saw logray 16% of the time in 100 instances, that would equal once every 6 days. That's 222 days to get 185 shards. 5 a day every 6 days

Your math here is off. 16% of the time on 100 attempts means 80 shards in 25 days or an average of 3.2 shards a day. About 100 days to farm from 0 to 330 shards with no guild shop refreshes or Ewok Event assistanc.

It's not attempts tho is it? This isn't the same as farming a fixed node. You can only farm it when it appears which is the crux of this whole arguement. And it's actually 4 instances, I forgot about the one I miss at midnight . (midnight, 8am, lunchtime, payout)

6 toons rotate that one node, which on a purely rotational basis means atleast 1 of those 6 instances it will be logray (6 instances = 2 days without refreshing). As you've stated, you could get lucky and go on a great run. But even if you just got 1 every 6 (for simplicity), 330 shards at 5 every 2 days would mean needing to see logray 66 times (330/5). If you only saw logray every 2 days on the 6th instance, It would take 132 days.

Now that's keeping it simple. Now imagine an extreme where you don't see logray every two days cause it's landed on 1 of the other 5 toons which it will do 84% of the time. You can see that the time taken would drastically increase.

As people above have said, they've seen him once in 2 weeks

It's not odds manipulation though. It's content purchased by virtual currency and has no stated odds of appearing. Someone further up has crazily suggested it's 16% cause it's a 6 character rotation which is just plain wrong.

What's the point in it being on a rotation if the purpose is not to enable the manipulation of it appearing? There is code driving it's appearance rate, and they will be determined by variables that includes your metrics (one of which is your propensity to purchase)

Based on my data, it tracked pretty close to 16% when looked at over 85 days. 54 purchases in 340 refreshes. Not gonna lie, I didnt believe it was 16% either.

And Im just saying that with so much user data going into such a calculation, seems slim odds that game updates wouldnt accidentally break that at least once...

Not if they aren't being amended tho. And yes the 16% should hold over a large array of data. That's the issue here. Your small sample leveled at 16%. I and others have said this isn't our experience. For example, if I see 3 mob enforcers in a day, then the drop rate for logray is not 16% - it's 6^3 (provided there are 6 toons rotating that instance). Even if I saw logray 16% of the time in 100 instances, that would equal once every 6 days. That's 222 days to get 185 shards. 5 a day every 6 days

Your math here is off. 16% of the time on 100 attempts means 80 shards in 25 days or an average of 3.2 shards a day. About 100 days to farm from 0 to 330 shards with no guild shop refreshes or Ewok Event assistanc.

It's not attempts tho is it? This isn't the same as farming a fixed node. You can only farm it when it appears which is the crux of this whole arguement. And it's actually 4 instances, I forgot about the one I miss at midnight . (midnight, 8am, lunchtime, payout)

6 toons rotate that one node, which on a purely rotational basis means atleast 1 of those 6 instances it will be logray (6 instances = 2 days without refreshing). As you've stated, you could get lucky and go on a great run. But even if you just got 1 every 6 (for simplicity), 330 shards at 5 every 2 days would mean needing to see logray 66 times (330/5). If you only saw logray every 2 days on the 6th instance, It would take 132 days.

Now that's keeping it simple. Now imagine an extreme where you don't see logray every two days cause it's landed on 1 of the other 5 toons which it will do 84% of the time. You can see that the time taken would drastically increase.

As people above have said, they've seen him once in 2 weeks

If you aren't checking all 4 shop refreshes, you have an incomplete data set and you are literally missing 25% of the chances for Logray to show up.

Also, your language here implies that you aren't thinking of each atrempt as an independent event. Think of it as rolling a six sided die every 6 hours. What you rolled before has no bearing on your next roll, but with a large number of rolls you would expect the odds to even out to about 1/6.

Long story short, don't look at it on a day by day basis. Look at it from a farm start to farm end. And dont miss your refreshes. That's cutting your rates significantly!

It's not odds manipulation though. It's content purchased by virtual currency and has no stated odds of appearing. Someone further up has crazily suggested it's 16% cause it's a 6 character rotation which is just plain wrong.

What's the point in it being on a rotation if the purpose is not to enable the manipulation of it appearing? There is code driving it's appearance rate, and they will be determined by variables that includes your metrics (one of which is your propensity to purchase)

Based on my data, it tracked pretty close to 16% when looked at over 85 days. 54 purchases in 340 refreshes. Not gonna lie, I didnt believe it was 16% either.

And Im just saying that with so much user data going into such a calculation, seems slim odds that game updates wouldnt accidentally break that at least once...

Not if they aren't being amended tho. And yes the 16% should hold over a large array of data. That's the issue here. Your small sample leveled at 16%. I and others have said this isn't our experience. For example, if I see 3 mob enforcers in a day, then the drop rate for logray is not 16% - it's 6^3 (provided there are 6 toons rotating that instance). Even if I saw logray 16% of the time in 100 instances, that would equal once every 6 days. That's 222 days to get 185 shards. 5 a day every 6 days

Your math here is off. 16% of the time on 100 attempts means 80 shards in 25 days or an average of 3.2 shards a day. About 100 days to farm from 0 to 330 shards with no guild shop refreshes or Ewok Event assistanc.

It's not attempts tho is it? This isn't the same as farming a fixed node. You can only farm it when it appears which is the crux of this whole arguement. And it's actually 4 instances, I forgot about the one I miss at midnight . (midnight, 8am, lunchtime, payout)

6 toons rotate that one node, which on a purely rotational basis means atleast 1 of those 6 instances it will be logray (6 instances = 2 days without refreshing). As you've stated, you could get lucky and go on a great run. But even if you just got 1 every 6 (for simplicity), 330 shards at 5 every 2 days would mean needing to see logray 66 times (330/5). If you only saw logray every 2 days on the 6th instance, It would take 132 days.

Now that's keeping it simple. Now imagine an extreme where you don't see logray every two days cause it's landed on 1 of the other 5 toons which it will do 84% of the time. You can see that the time taken would drastically increase.

As people above have said, they've seen him once in 2 weeks

If you aren't checking all 4 shop refreshes, you have an incomplete data set and you are literally missing 25% of the chances for Logray to show up.

Also, your language here implies that you aren't thinking of each atrempt as an independent event. Think of it as rolling a six sided die every 6 hours. What you rolled before has no bearing on your next roll, but with a large number of rolls you would expect the odds to even out to about 1/6.

Long story short, don't look at it on a day by day basis. Look at it from a farm start to farm end. And dont miss your refreshes. That's cutting your rates significantly!

I don't know what you mean. I think you're missing my point or I'm not being clear.

I'm talking farming from Guild Store, which is what most of this is about, and the rate he appears. Not other sources (I'm not personally using them unless it's the weekly store for creds and I'm not including the percentage chance of him dropping on ewok events or at the end of GW cause that's a different story ). Also consider, I like most, have probably used crystals on farming the plethora of stuff thrown at us recently rather than refreshing guild store.

The question is simply is 'logray in the shop?' there's a 16% chance it's yes, 84% chance it's no. That's meaningless in terms of 'i got him at a 16% drop rate' cause it makes no sense - the odds of logray on that shard is 16% because it's based on him being 1/6 toons on rotation.

If the rotation is fixed where logray appeared 1/6 instances then you would get 5 shards every 2 days. It's not fixed tho, so it could be any other of the 5 toons and I could get a run where I see the same one lots. If I saw Rey 4/6 instances, her drop rate would be 66%. That would then mean the other 5 toons drop rates have fallen to 6% each.

Okay... i think you are confused. The rate of him showing up is 16% or 1/6. That's what you would expect to see if you looked at the data over time.

Its not a rotation. Its 4 shop refreshes per day. Each time the shop resets, you have a 1/6 chance that a given character will show up. These odds are entirely independent of what has shown up before and have no bearing on what will show up next. Over a large sample size (say, 340 shop refreshes) one would expect a given character to show up about 50 times (1/6 odds).

It's not odds manipulation though. It's content purchased by virtual currency and has no stated odds of appearing. Someone further up has crazily suggested it's 16% cause it's a 6 character rotation which is just plain wrong.

What's the point in it being on a rotation if the purpose is not to enable the manipulation of it appearing? There is code driving it's appearance rate, and they will be determined by variables that includes your metrics (one of which is your propensity to purchase)

Based on my data, it tracked pretty close to 16% when looked at over 85 days. 54 purchases in 340 refreshes. Not gonna lie, I didnt believe it was 16% either.

And Im just saying that with so much user data going into such a calculation, seems slim odds that game updates wouldnt accidentally break that at least once...

Not if they aren't being amended tho. And yes the 16% should hold over a large array of data. That's the issue here. Your small sample leveled at 16%. I and others have said this isn't our experience. For example, if I see 3 mob enforcers in a day, then the drop rate for logray is not 16% - it's 6^3 (provided there are 6 toons rotating that instance). Even if I saw logray 16% of the time in 100 instances, that would equal once every 6 days. That's 222 days to get 185 shards. 5 a day every 6 days

Your math here is off. 16% of the time on 100 attempts means 80 shards in 25 days or an average of 3.2 shards a day. About 100 days to farm from 0 to 330 shards with no guild shop refreshes or Ewok Event assistanc.

It's not attempts tho is it? This isn't the same as farming a fixed node. You can only farm it when it appears which is the crux of this whole arguement. And it's actually 4 instances, I forgot about the one I miss at midnight . (midnight, 8am, lunchtime, payout)

6 toons rotate that one node, which on a purely rotational basis means atleast 1 of those 6 instances it will be logray (6 instances = 2 days without refreshing). As you've stated, you could get lucky and go on a great run. But even if you just got 1 every 6 (for simplicity), 330 shards at 5 every 2 days would mean needing to see logray 66 times (330/5). If you only saw logray every 2 days on the 6th instance, It would take 132 days.

Now that's keeping it simple. Now imagine an extreme where you don't see logray every two days cause it's landed on 1 of the other 5 toons which it will do 84% of the time. You can see that the time taken would drastically increase.

As people above have said, they've seen him once in 2 weeks

If you aren't checking all 4 shop refreshes, you have an incomplete data set and you are literally missing 25% of the chances for Logray to show up.

Also, your language here implies that you aren't thinking of each atrempt as an independent event. Think of it as rolling a six sided die every 6 hours. What you rolled before has no bearing on your next roll, but with a large number of rolls you would expect the odds to even out to about 1/6.

Long story short, don't look at it on a day by day basis. Look at it from a farm start to farm end. And dont miss your refreshes. That's cutting your rates significantly!

I don't know what you mean. I think you're missing my point or I'm not being clear.

I'm talking farming from Guild Store, which is what most of this is about, and the rate he appears. Not other sources (I'm not personally using them unless it's the weekly store for creds and I'm not including the percentage chance of him dropping on ewok events or at the end of GW cause that's a different story ). Also consider, I like most, have probably used crystals on farming the plethora of stuff thrown at us recently rather than refreshing guild store.

The question is simply is 'logray in the shop?' there's a 16% chance it's yes, 84% chance it's no. That's meaningless in terms of 'i got him at a 16% drop rate' cause it makes no sense - the odds of logray on that shard is 16% because it's based on him being 1/6 toons on rotation.

If the rotation is fixed where logray appeared 1/6 instances then you would get 5 shards every 2 days. It's not fixed tho, so it could be any other of the 5 toons and I could get a run where I see the same one lots. If I saw Rey 4/6 instances, her drop rate would be 66%. That would then mean the other 5 toons drop rates have fallen to 6% each.

Okay... i think you are confused. The rate of him showing up is 16% or 1/6. That's what you would expect to see if you looked at the data over time.

Its not a rotation. Its 4 shop refreshes per day. Each time the shop resets, you have a 1/6 chance that a given character will show up. These odds are entirely independent of what has shown up before and have no bearing on what will show up next. Over a large sample size (say, 340 shop refreshes) one would expect a given character to show up about 50 times (1/6 odds).

This is just statistics of independent events...

And how many days for 340 refreshes? What if I didn't get the expected run of 16%?

It's not odds manipulation though. It's content purchased by virtual currency and has no stated odds of appearing. Someone further up has crazily suggested it's 16% cause it's a 6 character rotation which is just plain wrong.

What's the point in it being on a rotation if the purpose is not to enable the manipulation of it appearing? There is code driving it's appearance rate, and they will be determined by variables that includes your metrics (one of which is your propensity to purchase)

Based on my data, it tracked pretty close to 16% when looked at over 85 days. 54 purchases in 340 refreshes. Not gonna lie, I didnt believe it was 16% either.

And Im just saying that with so much user data going into such a calculation, seems slim odds that game updates wouldnt accidentally break that at least once...

Not if they aren't being amended tho. And yes the 16% should hold over a large array of data. That's the issue here. Your small sample leveled at 16%. I and others have said this isn't our experience. For example, if I see 3 mob enforcers in a day, then the drop rate for logray is not 16% - it's 6^3 (provided there are 6 toons rotating that instance). Even if I saw logray 16% of the time in 100 instances, that would equal once every 6 days. That's 222 days to get 185 shards. 5 a day every 6 days

Your math here is off. 16% of the time on 100 attempts means 80 shards in 25 days or an average of 3.2 shards a day. About 100 days to farm from 0 to 330 shards with no guild shop refreshes or Ewok Event assistanc.

It's not attempts tho is it? This isn't the same as farming a fixed node. You can only farm it when it appears which is the crux of this whole arguement. And it's actually 4 instances, I forgot about the one I miss at midnight . (midnight, 8am, lunchtime, payout)

6 toons rotate that one node, which on a purely rotational basis means atleast 1 of those 6 instances it will be logray (6 instances = 2 days without refreshing). As you've stated, you could get lucky and go on a great run. But even if you just got 1 every 6 (for simplicity), 330 shards at 5 every 2 days would mean needing to see logray 66 times (330/5). If you only saw logray every 2 days on the 6th instance, It would take 132 days.

Now that's keeping it simple. Now imagine an extreme where you don't see logray every two days cause it's landed on 1 of the other 5 toons which it will do 84% of the time. You can see that the time taken would drastically increase.

As people above have said, they've seen him once in 2 weeks

If you aren't checking all 4 shop refreshes, you have an incomplete data set and you are literally missing 25% of the chances for Logray to show up.

Also, your language here implies that you aren't thinking of each atrempt as an independent event. Think of it as rolling a six sided die every 6 hours. What you rolled before has no bearing on your next roll, but with a large number of rolls you would expect the odds to even out to about 1/6.

Long story short, don't look at it on a day by day basis. Look at it from a farm start to farm end. And dont miss your refreshes. That's cutting your rates significantly!

I don't know what you mean. I think you're missing my point or I'm not being clear.

I'm talking farming from Guild Store, which is what most of this is about, and the rate he appears. Not other sources (I'm not personally using them unless it's the weekly store for creds and I'm not including the percentage chance of him dropping on ewok events or at the end of GW cause that's a different story ). Also consider, I like most, have probably used crystals on farming the plethora of stuff thrown at us recently rather than refreshing guild store.

The question is simply is 'logray in the shop?' there's a 16% chance it's yes, 84% chance it's no. That's meaningless in terms of 'i got him at a 16% drop rate' cause it makes no sense - the odds of logray on that shard is 16% because it's based on him being 1/6 toons on rotation.

If the rotation is fixed where logray appeared 1/6 instances then you would get 5 shards every 2 days. It's not fixed tho, so it could be any other of the 5 toons and I could get a run where I see the same one lots. If I saw Rey 4/6 instances, her drop rate would be 66%. That would then mean the other 5 toons drop rates have fallen to 6% each.

Okay... i think you are confused. The rate of him showing up is 16% or 1/6. That's what you would expect to see if you looked at the data over time.

Its not a rotation. Its 4 shop refreshes per day. Each time the shop resets, you have a 1/6 chance that a given character will show up. These odds are entirely independent of what has shown up before and have no bearing on what will show up next. Over a large sample size (say, 340 shop refreshes) one would expect a given character to show up about 50 times (1/6 odds).

This is just statistics of independent events...

And how many days for 340 refreshes? What if I didn't get the expected run of 16%?

The shop refreshs every 6 hours, so 340 refreshes is 85 days.

And it wont be exactly 16%, but it should be very close. Within a couple percent.

It's not odds manipulation though. It's content purchased by virtual currency and has no stated odds of appearing. Someone further up has crazily suggested it's 16% cause it's a 6 character rotation which is just plain wrong.

What's the point in it being on a rotation if the purpose is not to enable the manipulation of it appearing? There is code driving it's appearance rate, and they will be determined by variables that includes your metrics (one of which is your propensity to purchase)

Based on my data, it tracked pretty close to 16% when looked at over 85 days. 54 purchases in 340 refreshes. Not gonna lie, I didnt believe it was 16% either.

And Im just saying that with so much user data going into such a calculation, seems slim odds that game updates wouldnt accidentally break that at least once...

Not if they aren't being amended tho. And yes the 16% should hold over a large array of data. That's the issue here. Your small sample leveled at 16%. I and others have said this isn't our experience. For example, if I see 3 mob enforcers in a day, then the drop rate for logray is not 16% - it's 6^3 (provided there are 6 toons rotating that instance). Even if I saw logray 16% of the time in 100 instances, that would equal once every 6 days. That's 222 days to get 185 shards. 5 a day every 6 days

Your math here is off. 16% of the time on 100 attempts means 80 shards in 25 days or an average of 3.2 shards a day. About 100 days to farm from 0 to 330 shards with no guild shop refreshes or Ewok Event assistanc.

It's not attempts tho is it? This isn't the same as farming a fixed node. You can only farm it when it appears which is the crux of this whole arguement. And it's actually 4 instances, I forgot about the one I miss at midnight . (midnight, 8am, lunchtime, payout)

6 toons rotate that one node, which on a purely rotational basis means atleast 1 of those 6 instances it will be logray (6 instances = 2 days without refreshing). As you've stated, you could get lucky and go on a great run. But even if you just got 1 every 6 (for simplicity), 330 shards at 5 every 2 days would mean needing to see logray 66 times (330/5). If you only saw logray every 2 days on the 6th instance, It would take 132 days.

Now that's keeping it simple. Now imagine an extreme where you don't see logray every two days cause it's landed on 1 of the other 5 toons which it will do 84% of the time. You can see that the time taken would drastically increase.

As people above have said, they've seen him once in 2 weeks

If you aren't checking all 4 shop refreshes, you have an incomplete data set and you are literally missing 25% of the chances for Logray to show up.

Also, your language here implies that you aren't thinking of each atrempt as an independent event. Think of it as rolling a six sided die every 6 hours. What you rolled before has no bearing on your next roll, but with a large number of rolls you would expect the odds to even out to about 1/6.

Long story short, don't look at it on a day by day basis. Look at it from a farm start to farm end. And dont miss your refreshes. That's cutting your rates significantly!

I don't know what you mean. I think you're missing my point or I'm not being clear.

I'm talking farming from Guild Store, which is what most of this is about, and the rate he appears. Not other sources (I'm not personally using them unless it's the weekly store for creds and I'm not including the percentage chance of him dropping on ewok events or at the end of GW cause that's a different story ). Also consider, I like most, have probably used crystals on farming the plethora of stuff thrown at us recently rather than refreshing guild store.

The question is simply is 'logray in the shop?' there's a 16% chance it's yes, 84% chance it's no. That's meaningless in terms of 'i got him at a 16% drop rate' cause it makes no sense - the odds of logray on that shard is 16% because it's based on him being 1/6 toons on rotation.

If the rotation is fixed where logray appeared 1/6 instances then you would get 5 shards every 2 days. It's not fixed tho, so it could be any other of the 5 toons and I could get a run where I see the same one lots. If I saw Rey 4/6 instances, her drop rate would be 66%. That would then mean the other 5 toons drop rates have fallen to 6% each.

Okay... i think you are confused. The rate of him showing up is 16% or 1/6. That's what you would expect to see if you looked at the data over time.

Its not a rotation. Its 4 shop refreshes per day. Each time the shop resets, you have a 1/6 chance that a given character will show up. These odds are entirely independent of what has shown up before and have no bearing on what will show up next. Over a large sample size (say, 340 shop refreshes) one would expect a given character to show up about 50 times (1/6 odds).

This is just statistics of independent events...

And how many days for 340 refreshes? What if I didn't get the expected run of 16%?

The shop refreshs every 6 hours, so 340 refreshes is 85 days.

And it wont be exactly 16%, but it should be very close. Within a couple percent.

What if I got 13% I'd have less logray shards over 85 days, correct?

It's not odds manipulation though. It's content purchased by virtual currency and has no stated odds of appearing. Someone further up has crazily suggested it's 16% cause it's a 6 character rotation which is just plain wrong.

What's the point in it being on a rotation if the purpose is not to enable the manipulation of it appearing? There is code driving it's appearance rate, and they will be determined by variables that includes your metrics (one of which is your propensity to purchase)

Based on my data, it tracked pretty close to 16% when looked at over 85 days. 54 purchases in 340 refreshes. Not gonna lie, I didnt believe it was 16% either.

And Im just saying that with so much user data going into such a calculation, seems slim odds that game updates wouldnt accidentally break that at least once...

Not if they aren't being amended tho. And yes the 16% should hold over a large array of data. That's the issue here. Your small sample leveled at 16%. I and others have said this isn't our experience. For example, if I see 3 mob enforcers in a day, then the drop rate for logray is not 16% - it's 6^3 (provided there are 6 toons rotating that instance). Even if I saw logray 16% of the time in 100 instances, that would equal once every 6 days. That's 222 days to get 185 shards. 5 a day every 6 days

Your math here is off. 16% of the time on 100 attempts means 80 shards in 25 days or an average of 3.2 shards a day. About 100 days to farm from 0 to 330 shards with no guild shop refreshes or Ewok Event assistanc.

It's not attempts tho is it? This isn't the same as farming a fixed node. You can only farm it when it appears which is the crux of this whole arguement. And it's actually 4 instances, I forgot about the one I miss at midnight . (midnight, 8am, lunchtime, payout)

6 toons rotate that one node, which on a purely rotational basis means atleast 1 of those 6 instances it will be logray (6 instances = 2 days without refreshing). As you've stated, you could get lucky and go on a great run. But even if you just got 1 every 6 (for simplicity), 330 shards at 5 every 2 days would mean needing to see logray 66 times (330/5). If you only saw logray every 2 days on the 6th instance, It would take 132 days.

Now that's keeping it simple. Now imagine an extreme where you don't see logray every two days cause it's landed on 1 of the other 5 toons which it will do 84% of the time. You can see that the time taken would drastically increase.

As people above have said, they've seen him once in 2 weeks

If you aren't checking all 4 shop refreshes, you have an incomplete data set and you are literally missing 25% of the chances for Logray to show up.

Also, your language here implies that you aren't thinking of each atrempt as an independent event. Think of it as rolling a six sided die every 6 hours. What you rolled before has no bearing on your next roll, but with a large number of rolls you would expect the odds to even out to about 1/6.

Long story short, don't look at it on a day by day basis. Look at it from a farm start to farm end. And dont miss your refreshes. That's cutting your rates significantly!

I don't know what you mean. I think you're missing my point or I'm not being clear.

I'm talking farming from Guild Store, which is what most of this is about, and the rate he appears. Not other sources (I'm not personally using them unless it's the weekly store for creds and I'm not including the percentage chance of him dropping on ewok events or at the end of GW cause that's a different story ). Also consider, I like most, have probably used crystals on farming the plethora of stuff thrown at us recently rather than refreshing guild store.

The question is simply is 'logray in the shop?' there's a 16% chance it's yes, 84% chance it's no. That's meaningless in terms of 'i got him at a 16% drop rate' cause it makes no sense - the odds of logray on that shard is 16% because it's based on him being 1/6 toons on rotation.

If the rotation is fixed where logray appeared 1/6 instances then you would get 5 shards every 2 days. It's not fixed tho, so it could be any other of the 5 toons and I could get a run where I see the same one lots. If I saw Rey 4/6 instances, her drop rate would be 66%. That would then mean the other 5 toons drop rates have fallen to 6% each.

Okay... i think you are confused. The rate of him showing up is 16% or 1/6. That's what you would expect to see if you looked at the data over time.

Its not a rotation. Its 4 shop refreshes per day. Each time the shop resets, you have a 1/6 chance that a given character will show up. These odds are entirely independent of what has shown up before and have no bearing on what will show up next. Over a large sample size (say, 340 shop refreshes) one would expect a given character to show up about 50 times (1/6 odds).

This is just statistics of independent events...

And how many days for 340 refreshes? What if I didn't get the expected run of 16%?

The shop refreshs every 6 hours, so 340 refreshes is 85 days.

And it wont be exactly 16%, but it should be very close. Within a couple percent.

What if I got 13% I'd have less logray shards over 85 days, correct?

Yes. Such is a possibility. Doesnt change the independent odds though.

Got 2K guild currency for over a week.
no Logray and I missed no refresh.
Spend all my currency, appears 4 time in a row...
Stopped farming because p*ssed, appears on a more regular base...
CG not messing around ? I doubt it...

The lesson should be that you always need to have say 900 spare guild currency just in case he shows up. If you actually wanted to be farming Logray you would have been smart and not spent that 2k guild currency.

Do you honestly think that CG personally goes into YOUR account, waits till you have spent all of your guild currency AND THEN places Logray in the shop?? Come on..

You're naive if you think they arent harvesting every piece of data and using that to set variables. They will know absolutely everything about your playing and spending habits and will adjust rates accordingly to trigger a response (i.e spending money on crystals to get Logray).

Since posting above 3 weeks ago, he's appeared twice for me. Both times when I had no currency. That's not confirmation bias when more than 1 person experiences it...

More than one person experiencing something doesn't mean it isnt confirmation bias. It could just be more than one person with confirmation bias.

I have a screenshot showing I was at 226/330 on Feb 11th. In the following 20 days he showed up 20 times in Guild Store (no refreshes), and as a reward for the Ewok event once. I think that was above standard for the guild store, but certainly seems to point towards disproving the coding conspiracy you've presented and lends itself towards RNG being both bane and boon.

It's not a coding conspiracy - it's industry standard in P2W games. It's how they set prices, know when to market, and as the guy above posted, when to remove buttons like 'buy now'.

I dont doubt they have meta data on app usage. What I do doubt is that in a P2W game, they would use dynamic odds for their RNG in areas affected by Crystals (i.e. money). Seems like they'd be exposing themselves to more legal headaches than such a scam would be worth.

What legal headache? Quite the opposite. Dynamic changing of odds (or Dynamic Serving of content) happens in every game and is covered in the EULA. Dynamic meaning it requires user inputs - your metrics in this instance.

Logray doesn't cost money, and if he does, you've chosen to spend it and know what you're getting. I.e 25 shards for 2k.

The farmable logray is bought using virtual currency, which has no real world value and is not caught by the Fixed Odds legislation (like the pack probabilities). They could make Logray appear once a year if they wanted.

'But that just forces people to spend money!' I hear people retort. Not really, you push the button that says "Take my money'

It's not odds manipulation though. It's content purchased by virtual currency and has no stated odds of appearing. Someone further up has crazily suggested it's 16% cause it's a 6 character rotation which is just plain wrong.

What's the point in it being on a rotation if the purpose is not to enable the manipulation of it appearing? There is code driving it's appearance rate, and they will be determined by variables that includes your metrics (one of which is your propensity to purchase)

Based on my data, it tracked pretty close to 16% when looked at over 85 days. 54 purchases in 340 refreshes. Not gonna lie, I didnt believe it was 16% either.

And Im just saying that with so much user data going into such a calculation, seems slim odds that game updates wouldnt accidentally break that at least once...

Not if they aren't being amended tho. And yes the 16% should hold over a large array of data. That's the issue here. Your small sample leveled at 16%. I and others have said this isn't our experience. For example, if I see 3 mob enforcers in a day, then the drop rate for logray is not 16% - it's 6^3 (provided there are 6 toons rotating that instance). Even if I saw logray 16% of the time in 100 instances, that would equal once every 6 days. That's 222 days to get 185 shards. 5 a day every 6 days

Your math here is off. 16% of the time on 100 attempts means 80 shards in 25 days or an average of 3.2 shards a day. About 100 days to farm from 0 to 330 shards with no guild shop refreshes or Ewok Event assistanc.

It's not attempts tho is it? This isn't the same as farming a fixed node. You can only farm it when it appears which is the crux of this whole arguement. And it's actually 4 instances, I forgot about the one I miss at midnight . (midnight, 8am, lunchtime, payout)

6 toons rotate that one node, which on a purely rotational basis means atleast 1 of those 6 instances it will be logray (6 instances = 2 days without refreshing). As you've stated, you could get lucky and go on a great run. But even if you just got 1 every 6 (for simplicity), 330 shards at 5 every 2 days would mean needing to see logray 66 times (330/5). If you only saw logray every 2 days on the 6th instance, It would take 132 days.

Now that's keeping it simple. Now imagine an extreme where you don't see logray every two days cause it's landed on 1 of the other 5 toons which it will do 84% of the time. You can see that the time taken would drastically increase.

As people above have said, they've seen him once in 2 weeks

If you aren't checking all 4 shop refreshes, you have an incomplete data set and you are literally missing 25% of the chances for Logray to show up.

Also, your language here implies that you aren't thinking of each atrempt as an independent event. Think of it as rolling a six sided die every 6 hours. What you rolled before has no bearing on your next roll, but with a large number of rolls you would expect the odds to even out to about 1/6.

Long story short, don't look at it on a day by day basis. Look at it from a farm start to farm end. And dont miss your refreshes. That's cutting your rates significantly!

I don't know what you mean. I think you're missing my point or I'm not being clear.

I'm talking farming from Guild Store, which is what most of this is about, and the rate he appears. Not other sources (I'm not personally using them unless it's the weekly store for creds and I'm not including the percentage chance of him dropping on ewok events or at the end of GW cause that's a different story ). Also consider, I like most, have probably used crystals on farming the plethora of stuff thrown at us recently rather than refreshing guild store.

The question is simply is 'logray in the shop?' there's a 16% chance it's yes, 84% chance it's no. That's meaningless in terms of 'i got him at a 16% drop rate' cause it makes no sense - the odds of logray on that shard is 16% because it's based on him being 1/6 toons on rotation.

If the rotation is fixed where logray appeared 1/6 instances then you would get 5 shards every 2 days. It's not fixed tho, so it could be any other of the 5 toons and I could get a run where I see the same one lots. If I saw Rey 4/6 instances, her drop rate would be 66%. That would then mean the other 5 toons drop rates have fallen to 6% each.

Okay... i think you are confused. The rate of him showing up is 16% or 1/6. That's what you would expect to see if you looked at the data over time.

Its not a rotation. Its 4 shop refreshes per day. Each time the shop resets, you have a 1/6 chance that a given character will show up. These odds are entirely independent of what has shown up before and have no bearing on what will show up next. Over a large sample size (say, 340 shop refreshes) one would expect a given character to show up about 50 times (1/6 odds).

This is just statistics of independent events...

And how many days for 340 refreshes? What if I didn't get the expected run of 16%?

The shop refreshs every 6 hours, so 340 refreshes is 85 days.

And it wont be exactly 16%, but it should be very close. Within a couple percent.

What if I got 13% I'd have less logray shards over 85 days, correct?

Yes. Such is a possibility. Doesnt change the independent odds though.

So the 16% rate only holds true over a large enough data set? Remember the data set here is days to obtain logray. That's what the thread is about. The logray problem - the problem being it might take you 85 days, but take me 200.

It's not the same as hard fast farming of a node where you see instant results and it's easy to map. The data is measured in days not refreshes.

It's not odds manipulation though. It's content purchased by virtual currency and has no stated odds of appearing. Someone further up has crazily suggested it's 16% cause it's a 6 character rotation which is just plain wrong.

What's the point in it being on a rotation if the purpose is not to enable the manipulation of it appearing? There is code driving it's appearance rate, and they will be determined by variables that includes your metrics (one of which is your propensity to purchase)

Based on my data, it tracked pretty close to 16% when looked at over 85 days. 54 purchases in 340 refreshes. Not gonna lie, I didnt believe it was 16% either.

And Im just saying that with so much user data going into such a calculation, seems slim odds that game updates wouldnt accidentally break that at least once...

Not if they aren't being amended tho. And yes the 16% should hold over a large array of data. That's the issue here. Your small sample leveled at 16%. I and others have said this isn't our experience. For example, if I see 3 mob enforcers in a day, then the drop rate for logray is not 16% - it's 6^3 (provided there are 6 toons rotating that instance). Even if I saw logray 16% of the time in 100 instances, that would equal once every 6 days. That's 222 days to get 185 shards. 5 a day every 6 days

Your math here is off. 16% of the time on 100 attempts means 80 shards in 25 days or an average of 3.2 shards a day. About 100 days to farm from 0 to 330 shards with no guild shop refreshes or Ewok Event assistanc.

It's not attempts tho is it? This isn't the same as farming a fixed node. You can only farm it when it appears which is the crux of this whole arguement. And it's actually 4 instances, I forgot about the one I miss at midnight . (midnight, 8am, lunchtime, payout)

6 toons rotate that one node, which on a purely rotational basis means atleast 1 of those 6 instances it will be logray (6 instances = 2 days without refreshing). As you've stated, you could get lucky and go on a great run. But even if you just got 1 every 6 (for simplicity), 330 shards at 5 every 2 days would mean needing to see logray 66 times (330/5). If you only saw logray every 2 days on the 6th instance, It would take 132 days.

Now that's keeping it simple. Now imagine an extreme where you don't see logray every two days cause it's landed on 1 of the other 5 toons which it will do 84% of the time. You can see that the time taken would drastically increase.

As people above have said, they've seen him once in 2 weeks

If you aren't checking all 4 shop refreshes, you have an incomplete data set and you are literally missing 25% of the chances for Logray to show up.

Also, your language here implies that you aren't thinking of each atrempt as an independent event. Think of it as rolling a six sided die every 6 hours. What you rolled before has no bearing on your next roll, but with a large number of rolls you would expect the odds to even out to about 1/6.

Long story short, don't look at it on a day by day basis. Look at it from a farm start to farm end. And dont miss your refreshes. That's cutting your rates significantly!

I don't know what you mean. I think you're missing my point or I'm not being clear.

I'm talking farming from Guild Store, which is what most of this is about, and the rate he appears. Not other sources (I'm not personally using them unless it's the weekly store for creds and I'm not including the percentage chance of him dropping on ewok events or at the end of GW cause that's a different story ). Also consider, I like most, have probably used crystals on farming the plethora of stuff thrown at us recently rather than refreshing guild store.

The question is simply is 'logray in the shop?' there's a 16% chance it's yes, 84% chance it's no. That's meaningless in terms of 'i got him at a 16% drop rate' cause it makes no sense - the odds of logray on that shard is 16% because it's based on him being 1/6 toons on rotation.

If the rotation is fixed where logray appeared 1/6 instances then you would get 5 shards every 2 days. It's not fixed tho, so it could be any other of the 5 toons and I could get a run where I see the same one lots. If I saw Rey 4/6 instances, her drop rate would be 66%. That would then mean the other 5 toons drop rates have fallen to 6% each.

Okay... i think you are confused. The rate of him showing up is 16% or 1/6. That's what you would expect to see if you looked at the data over time.

Its not a rotation. Its 4 shop refreshes per day. Each time the shop resets, you have a 1/6 chance that a given character will show up. These odds are entirely independent of what has shown up before and have no bearing on what will show up next. Over a large sample size (say, 340 shop refreshes) one would expect a given character to show up about 50 times (1/6 odds).

This is just statistics of independent events...

And how many days for 340 refreshes? What if I didn't get the expected run of 16%?

The shop refreshs every 6 hours, so 340 refreshes is 85 days.

And it wont be exactly 16%, but it should be very close. Within a couple percent.

What if I got 13% I'd have less logray shards over 85 days, correct?

Yes. Such is a possibility. Doesnt change the independent odds though.

So the 16% rate only holds true over a large enough data set? Remember the data set here is days to obtain logray. That's what the thread is about. The logray problem - the problem being it might take you 85 days, but take me 200.

It's not the same as hard fast farming of a node where you see instant results and it's easy to map. The data is measured in days not refreshes.

It is analogous to the farming of a node though. Shop refreshes are analagous to attempts on a node. 1/6 chance of appearing is analagous to the 1/3 drop rate from a node per attempt.

And you can measure it in days or refreshes if you know the number of refreshes you are checking per day.

With all the data (which I track with a reasonable level of diligence) I would assume that someone checking all 4 of their shop refreshes per day, would be done with him in just over 3 months (99 days). If you miss even 1 refresh every day, I would expect just over 4 months (132 days).

It's all estimates, but it seems to be holding true when looking at it from the data of my farming over the course of 3 months.

the biggest take away from all this and I am not trying to be mean, farm the shards as a priority going forward.

It is a lot easier to farm the gear needed for a character than the shards when an event comes around. Yes I farmed Logray when he first came to the guild store, 7 Stared, Level 85 and gl7 (no omega's) adding "fluff" to my roster. When 3PO was announced I started to hoard gear and omega's for they team and sure enough got 3PO to 7 star with the first hour of the event. I may be lucky and my strategy worked in this case, it sure hasn't for GA but that is a different matter.

Looking ahead long term, We know ep9 events are coming but how many people are farming First Order Special Forces Tie Pilot (FOSFTP) or his ship from the guild store right now? He may not be used but it would be better to start farming him now in case than leave it till later?

The gear and mod salvage is great in there but with characters that cannot be farmed elsewhere, isn't it better to get them out of the way first?

I hope you all make it over the line and get the character this time around, I really do but Its not too hard to see what events are possibly coming in the future (**** you Solo characters), farm the shards first and gear second.

I've been farming Logray since the last event. I'm 12 shards shy. And he has disappeared. Even with 2 refreshes a day, I haven't seen him in a week. Let's call that 30 refreshes. If he really were showing up 1/6 of the time, the odds of 30 straight refreshes not showing him is 0.4%.

I've been farming Logray since the last event. I'm 12 shards shy. And he has disappeared. Even with 2 refreshes a day, I haven't seen him in a week. Let's call that 30 refreshes. If he really were showing up 1/6 of the time, the odds of 30 straight refreshes not showing him is 0.4%.

I've been watching for the last 6 months easy, and he shows up like once a week at the MOST, often less like every 10 days, no way is it 1/6 of the time

I've been farming Logray since the last event. I'm 12 shards shy. And he has disappeared. Even with 2 refreshes a day, I haven't seen him in a week. Let's call that 30 refreshes. If he really were showing up 1/6 of the time, the odds of 30 straight refreshes not showing him is 0.4%.

I've been watching for the last 6 months easy, and he shows up like once a week at the MOST, often less like every 10 days, no way is it 1/6 of the time

I've been farming Logray since the last event. I'm 12 shards shy. And he has disappeared. Even with 2 refreshes a day, I haven't seen him in a week. Let's call that 30 refreshes. If he really were showing up 1/6 of the time, the odds of 30 straight refreshes not showing him is 0.4%.

I've been watching for the last 6 months easy, and he shows up like once a week at the MOST, often less like every 10 days, no way is it 1/6 of the time

Are you checking all 4 times a day?

Yeah that is the sad part, just another paywall to C3PO, likely they lowered Logray's drop rate once the Gold God hit

Got 2K guild currency for over a week.
no Logray and I missed no refresh.
Spend all my currency, appears 4 time in a row...
Stopped farming because p*ssed, appears on a more regular base...
CG not messing around ? I doubt it...

The lesson should be that you always need to have say 900 spare guild currency just in case he shows up. If you actually wanted to be farming Logray you would have been smart and not spent that 2k guild currency.

Do you honestly think that CG personally goes into YOUR account, waits till you have spent all of your guild currency AND THEN places Logray in the shop?? Come on..

That's not confirmation bias when more than 1 person experiences it...

That’s actually the definition of confirmation bias. There are hundreds of thousands of active players of this game and there are maybe a dozen here complaining and you’re looking at the small number that confirms your viee. What would you call that if not confirmation bias?

Got 2K guild currency for over a week.
no Logray and I missed no refresh.
Spend all my currency, appears 4 time in a row...
Stopped farming because p*ssed, appears on a more regular base...
CG not messing around ? I doubt it...

The lesson should be that you always need to have say 900 spare guild currency just in case he shows up. If you actually wanted to be farming Logray you would have been smart and not spent that 2k guild currency.

Do you honestly think that CG personally goes into YOUR account, waits till you have spent all of your guild currency AND THEN places Logray in the shop?? Come on..

That's not confirmation bias when more than 1 person experiences it...

That’s actually the definition of confirmation bias. There are hundreds of thousands of active players of this game and there are maybe a dozen here complaining and you’re looking at the small number that confirms your viee. What would you call that if not confirmation bias?

Well I could make the argument that a small number of people complaining about it is due to the fact the vast majority of people do not post on forums and if they did come here to complain would read a thread or two first and realize complaining does nothing and decide not to waste their time.......

(taking no sides on this argument just pointing out you premise may not be that solid) (does make sense and sound good though just not provable)

Are you looking at every refresh every day? That's 4x/day, 56 times total over two weeks. The odds of going 0-56 are extremely long.

A lot of my guild have been complaining that hes not dropped once in two weeks too, tbh though I need 21 shards so 2000 crystals will get him but need 33 shards for Chirpa. Not really sure if I want to spend £20 on ewoks, They’re all gear 8-10 so probably a waste of money. Need to wait and see.

Well, he finally showed up. Twice in three tries. Maybe the odds finally lining up? Anyway. Only 2 shards shy now. Let's see if I can get them. Anyone seen Logray showing up for crystals with less than a 25-pack?

## Replies

The purpose of putting it into a rotation is to manipulate how often it appears based on how many other items are in the rotation. Nothing more.

6 items? You have a 1 in 6 chance (roughly 16%).

If you want to claim otherwise you'll have to collect data and share it, otherwise it's just speculation.

Yes I tried to amend it but it got stopped by moderator. It's 3 times per day so it's a 3rd of that. But it's still the same basis. Purely stating it's 16% suggests I should see him once every 2 days.

And to the guy above about data....you just dismissing half the posters on this thread as liars?

It's not attempts tho is it? This isn't the same as farming a fixed node. You can only farm it when it appears which is the crux of this whole arguement. And it's actually 4 instances, I forgot about the one I miss at midnight . (midnight, 8am, lunchtime, payout)

6 toons rotate that one node, which on a purely rotational basis means atleast 1 of those 6 instances it will be logray (6 instances = 2 days without refreshing). As you've stated, you could get lucky and go on a great run. But even if you just got 1 every 6 (for simplicity), 330 shards at 5 every 2 days would mean needing to see logray 66 times (330/5). If you only saw logray every 2 days on the 6th instance, It would take 132 days.

Now that's keeping it simple. Now imagine an extreme where you don't see logray every two days cause it's landed on 1 of the other 5 toons which it will do 84% of the time. You can see that the time taken would drastically increase.

As people above have said, they've seen him once in 2 weeks

Also, your language here implies that you aren't thinking of each atrempt as an independent event. Think of it as rolling a six sided die every 6 hours. What you rolled before has no bearing on your next roll, but with a large number of rolls you would expect the odds to even out to about 1/6.

Long story short, don't look at it on a day by day basis. Look at it from a farm start to farm end. And dont miss your refreshes. That's cutting your rates significantly!

Its not a rotation. Its 4 shop refreshes per day. Each time the shop resets, you have a 1/6 chance that a given character will show up. These odds are entirely independent of what has shown up before and have no bearing on what will show up next. Over a large sample size (say, 340 shop refreshes) one would expect a given character to show up about 50 times (1/6 odds).

This is just statistics of independent events...

And how many days for 340 refreshes? What if I didn't get the expected run of 16%?

And it wont be exactly 16%, but it should be very close. Within a couple percent.

What if I got 13% I'd have less logray shards over 85 days, correct?

Yes. Such is a possibility. Doesnt change the independent odds though.

Silliness. Got evidence for this claim?

So the 16% rate only holds true over a large enough data set? Remember the data set here is days to obtain logray. That's what the thread is about. The logray problem - the problem being it might take you 85 days, but take me 200.

It's not the same as hard fast farming of a node where you see instant results and it's easy to map. The data is measured in days not refreshes.

When CG gets around to taking him to the vet.

And you can measure it in days or refreshes if you know the number of refreshes you are checking per day.

With all the data (which I track with a reasonable level of diligence) I would assume that someone checking all 4 of their shop refreshes per day, would be done with him in just over 3 months (99 days). If you miss even 1 refresh every day, I would expect just over 4 months (132 days).

It's all estimates, but it seems to be holding true when looking at it from the data of my farming over the course of 3 months.

It is a lot easier to farm the gear needed for a character than the shards when an event comes around. Yes I farmed Logray when he first came to the guild store, 7 Stared, Level 85 and gl7 (no omega's) adding "fluff" to my roster. When 3PO was announced I started to hoard gear and omega's for they team and sure enough got 3PO to 7 star with the first hour of the event. I may be lucky and my strategy worked in this case, it sure hasn't for GA but that is a different matter.

Looking ahead long term, We know ep9 events are coming but how many people are farming First Order Special Forces Tie Pilot (FOSFTP) or his ship from the guild store right now? He may not be used but it would be better to start farming him now in case than leave it till later?

The gear and mod salvage is great in there but with characters that cannot be farmed elsewhere, isn't it better to get them out of the way first?

I hope you all make it over the line and get the character this time around, I really do but Its not too hard to see what events are possibly coming in the future (**** you Solo characters), farm the shards first and gear second.

I've been watching for the last 6 months easy, and he shows up like once a week at the MOST, often less like every 10 days, no way is it 1/6 of the time

This thread 100x more enjoyable then reading about people complaining about getting free wins in GA from no shows

Better than threads with people trying to justify GA matchups where they have 30-50 more g12 toons than someone.....

Ship thread> EWOK thread>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> GA thread>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2000 posts not one response theead !!!!!!

Ewoks4lyfe

Yeah that is the sad part, just another paywall to C3PO, likely they lowered Logray's drop rate once the Gold God hit

That’s actually the definition of confirmation bias. There are hundreds of thousands of active players of this game and there are maybe a dozen here complaining and you’re looking at the small number that confirms your viee. What would you call that if not confirmation bias?

Well I could make the argument that a small number of people complaining about it is due to the fact the vast majority of people do not post on forums and if they did come here to complain would read a thread or two first and realize complaining does nothing and decide not to waste their time.......

(taking no sides on this argument just pointing out you premise may not be that solid) (does make sense and sound good though just not provable)

Must be nice, NONE for me in the last 14 days

A lot of my guild have been complaining that hes not dropped once in two weeks too, tbh though I need 21 shards so 2000 crystals will get him but need 33 shards for Chirpa. Not really sure if I want to spend £20 on ewoks, They’re all gear 8-10 so probably a waste of money. Need to wait and see.