Every time this comes up it makes me laugh. The drop rate is consistent if tracked long enough. Even one month isn't a big enough sample size.
When I first started T3, it was abysmal. I was at like 10/70 or something along those lines. But I kept going instead of jumping onto the forums to preach "Conspiracy!".
My cantina farms for the last 6 months or so:
1,510 / 4,039
Which is a 37.39% drop rate.
This includes 10, 12, and 16 energy nodes. It also includes two notoriously "bad" characters for drop rate, according to the forum wizards: Vet Chewie & Mission Vao (38.17, 36.46 respectively).
EDIT - this is also based on "max available sims" each time I spend energy, so it debunks the "# at a time is better" arguments too.
The last time I expounded on the discussion to do "long-term" farming statistical research of what shard drop rates are and that someone was planning to do that who was told "don't do that", that thread suddenly disappeared from the forums. I'm sure it was just a bug in the forums though, right?
Backing up unsubstantiated claims with additional unsubstantiated claims!
You take the bad rolls now, and you'll get better rolls later. It all averages out in the long run.
not on double drops. There are not enough double drop events over the lifespan of the game to have enough attempts for some good luck to override the bad luck. So in effect people who are spending money on double drops who get crap year after year lose the incentive to spend money on them....
Me personally as an addict would always spend for refreshes on double drops.
But RNG make too many losers out of people who spend money.
25-25-25-25-50 is my run so far on the gear packs.....starting off 0-4 hurts and do you think the gear packs will stay long enough for me to break even ??? Prob not.
Like Zeta drops on challenges over the years...... My luck is pathetic... so someone who started around the same time as me and ranks 500 in the fleet arena has 25 more full zetas than me finishing at 1st every day cause for 3 years he always get's 1-2 zetas where i get 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-2-0-0-1-0-0-0-0-0-2-0-0-0-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-2-1-0-0-0-0-0--0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-0-0-0-0-0-2-2-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-0-0-0
and his looks like 222222222222222222221111111111112221111111111111111111111111111112222222222222222002222222222222222222222222221111111111111111111111111111111111111111111112222222222222222222221212121222222222222222222000111111111111111111111111111111111111111
oh man ... every time. The subject matter is difficult to understand, even for those who have studied it. Many of you have done a good job explaining it. Some of you are not getting it.
I understand independent events and "dice rolls". Not to boast, but I'm degreed in economics and statistics and probability was a required course of study.... Anyway, 57 attempts is more than a sufficient sample size, and given it yielded only 5 results, or 8.7% positive results, it strongly suggests they dropped there yield rate. (5/57 = 8.7%) If the published rate is roughly 30%, then my 8.7% yield resulted in a fulfillment rate that was 71% below the average or reasonably anticipated outcome. This suggests the drop rates where reduced..... sure, it could be a fluke, but I highly doubt it.
Congratulations on your degree, you worked hard to achieve that goal. I hope you enjoyed your statistics class. 57 attempts is not a sufficient sample size, sorry. There is far too much uncertainty in the result. ~200 attempts should give you a decent estimate of actual drop rate.
This dude gets 0 hits in 20 attempts, a .08% chance of that happening, and dudes be like “seems reasonable to me, that’s rng”. People are so delusional lol
Setting aside that to find zero in twenty, you have to fish around the sets that did have hits?
In a game with a six- or seven-digit player base, .08% chances will happen multiple times per day.
By that logic, you should just as easily be able to find a player that gets 15 shards in 15 attempt everyday. But you don’t. And it’s not because people only complain on forums because we both know if someone got 20/20 they would brag about it. But instead you all ignore the fact that players never get large 100% drops but of course it’s xommon every day occurrence to have large 0% drops
@Wookiebush sorry, I understand why you might think this, but no. The odds of getting 0 shards in a single attempt is 70%; the odds of getting 0 shards in 5 attempts is ~17% (=0.7^5); and the odds of getting 0 shards in 15 attempts is ~0.5% (=0.7^15). Conversely, the odds of getting 1 shard in a single attempt is 30%; the odds of getting 5 shards in 5 attempts is 0.2% (=0.3^5); and the odds of getting 15 shards in 15 attempts is ~0.000001%. It is more than 300,000 times more likely to draw 0/15 shards than it is to draw 15/15 shards. So no, it is not "just as easy" to find players with 15/15 draws as it is to find players with 0/15 draws.
Then I seriously question your credentials. And your doubt over this being a fluke is hilarious.
Check my other posts before you got trolling please. I've been talking about this issue for a while, and not just the x2 bonus....... For example, I've been farming Hound's Tooth for 4 or 5 months, and i'm still only at 5 stars. Even when attempts were capped at 8 per day, I was lucky to get even 1 shard a day. In the last week, I have only received 3 shards total.... that's 7 days, 5 attempts per day, 35 total attempts, yielded 3 shards!
Also, this was not a 1 day observation on the 4th. It's already the 5th where I am and I'm talking about what happened today and yesterday. The moment the x2 drop bonus kicked in, my shard drops fell off the planet. I was getting 7-8 shards a day for L3, WITHOUT buying additional cantina energy, but on the 4th and 5th, after buying additional energy 3 times, I yielding only 10 shards total..... so, let's see.... before x2 bonus, I had roughly 20 attempts a day for 7 shard drops on average. Then with the x2 drop bonus, I had roughly 45 attempts yielding 5 shard average? Hmm... seems legit right? Over a two day period, roughly 90 attempts for L3, got 10 shards.... So if we double the attempts, double the drop rate, but the outcome is less than before, it suggests something is not right. Perhaps my experience is an isolated issue, and perhaps it was just bad luck, but I felt it was not, thus I posted this in a PUBLIC forum, to get public and transparent feedback from others, in an attempt to learn more and see if others had the same experience.
So, please don't be a troll, contribute something helpful to the community or don't say anything.
Thanks,
My friend, this is not data. This is a story. This is you saying you did a thing EVERY day exactly the same way, but then you add in all kinds of modifiers. "4 or 5 months" ... there is a large difference between 120 and 150 days worth of attempts ... "7-8" shards a day" ... was it 7 or 8? ... "Roughly X attempts" ... we are going to need exact numbers here ... "outcome is less than before" ... how much less? Your claim requires data to back it up. Record exactly how many attempts per node, per day, and the number of shards you were awarded. Write it down; tally it up. Calculate the drop rate. Report your results. You wouldn't write an economic report based on vague time periods and feelings, would you? I must empathize with your situation though; I have experienced dry spells and it sucks. Try to ignore it and move on.
Here is an example of what a shard drops actually look like when the data is painstakingly collected. Hey ... this says that the drop rate for Captain Han Solo is 38.8% ... RNGesus be praised!
Then I seriously question your credentials. And your doubt over this being a fluke is hilarious.
Check my other posts before you got trolling please. I've been talking about this issue for a while, and not just the x2 bonus....... For example, I've been farming Hound's Tooth for 4 or 5 months, and i'm still only at 5 stars. Even when attempts were capped at 8 per day, I was lucky to get even 1 shard a day. In the last week, I have only received 3 shards total.... that's 7 days, 5 attempts per day, 35 total attempts, yielded 3 shards!
Also, this was not a 1 day observation on the 4th. It's already the 5th where I am and I'm talking about what happened today and yesterday. The moment the x2 drop bonus kicked in, my shard drops fell off the planet. I was getting 7-8 shards a day for L3, WITHOUT buying additional cantina energy, but on the 4th and 5th, after buying additional energy 3 times, I yielding only 10 shards total..... so, let's see.... before x2 bonus, I had roughly 20 attempts a day for 7 shard drops on average. Then with the x2 drop bonus, I had roughly 45 attempts yielding 5 shard average? Hmm... seems legit right? Over a two day period, roughly 90 attempts for L3, got 10 shards.... So if we double the attempts, double the drop rate, but the outcome is less than before, it suggests something is not right. Perhaps my experience is an isolated issue, and perhaps it was just bad luck, but I felt it was not, thus I posted this in a PUBLIC forum, to get public and transparent feedback from others, in an attempt to learn more and see if others had the same experience.
So, please don't be a troll, contribute something helpful to the community or don't say anything.
Thanks,
Wear your tin foil hat for my absolutely true conspiracy theory.
CG sets up special drop rates for snowflake accounts. Rest of the community who bothers to sample and has a better understanding of statistics always get the same drop rates on average and decent sample sizes. This is just to mess with your heads.
Replies
When I first started T3, it was abysmal. I was at like 10/70 or something along those lines. But I kept going instead of jumping onto the forums to preach "Conspiracy!".
My cantina farms for the last 6 months or so:
1,510 / 4,039
Which is a 37.39% drop rate.
This includes 10, 12, and 16 energy nodes. It also includes two notoriously "bad" characters for drop rate, according to the forum wizards: Vet Chewie & Mission Vao (38.17, 36.46 respectively).
EDIT - this is also based on "max available sims" each time I spend energy, so it debunks the "# at a time is better" arguments too.
Backing up unsubstantiated claims with additional unsubstantiated claims!
not on double drops. There are not enough double drop events over the lifespan of the game to have enough attempts for some good luck to override the bad luck. So in effect people who are spending money on double drops who get crap year after year lose the incentive to spend money on them....
Me personally as an addict would always spend for refreshes on double drops.
But RNG make too many losers out of people who spend money.
25-25-25-25-50 is my run so far on the gear packs.....starting off 0-4 hurts and do you think the gear packs will stay long enough for me to break even ??? Prob not.
Like Zeta drops on challenges over the years...... My luck is pathetic... so someone who started around the same time as me and ranks 500 in the fleet arena has 25 more full zetas than me finishing at 1st every day cause for 3 years he always get's 1-2 zetas where i get 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-2-0-0-1-0-0-0-0-0-2-0-0-0-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-2-1-0-0-0-0-0--0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-0-0-0-0-0-2-2-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-0-0-0
and his looks like 222222222222222222221111111111112221111111111111111111111111111112222222222222222002222222222222222222222222221111111111111111111111111111111111111111111112222222222222222222221212121222222222222222222000111111111111111111111111111111111111111
You're right, actually. It's just as irrelevant as the other posts that are complaining about drop rates.
Your right too, it hasn’t changed or the data miners would’ve found it out
Congratulations on your degree, you worked hard to achieve that goal. I hope you enjoyed your statistics class. 57 attempts is not a sufficient sample size, sorry. There is far too much uncertainty in the result. ~200 attempts should give you a decent estimate of actual drop rate.
@Wookiebush sorry, I understand why you might think this, but no. The odds of getting 0 shards in a single attempt is 70%; the odds of getting 0 shards in 5 attempts is ~17% (=0.7^5); and the odds of getting 0 shards in 15 attempts is ~0.5% (=0.7^15). Conversely, the odds of getting 1 shard in a single attempt is 30%; the odds of getting 5 shards in 5 attempts is 0.2% (=0.3^5); and the odds of getting 15 shards in 15 attempts is ~0.000001%. It is more than 300,000 times more likely to draw 0/15 shards than it is to draw 15/15 shards. So no, it is not "just as easy" to find players with 15/15 draws as it is to find players with 0/15 draws.
My friend, this is not data. This is a story. This is you saying you did a thing EVERY day exactly the same way, but then you add in all kinds of modifiers. "4 or 5 months" ... there is a large difference between 120 and 150 days worth of attempts ... "7-8" shards a day" ... was it 7 or 8? ... "Roughly X attempts" ... we are going to need exact numbers here ... "outcome is less than before" ... how much less? Your claim requires data to back it up. Record exactly how many attempts per node, per day, and the number of shards you were awarded. Write it down; tally it up. Calculate the drop rate. Report your results. You wouldn't write an economic report based on vague time periods and feelings, would you? I must empathize with your situation though; I have experienced dry spells and it sucks. Try to ignore it and move on.
Here is an example of what a shard drops actually look like when the data is painstakingly collected. Hey ... this says that the drop rate for Captain Han Solo is 38.8% ... RNGesus be praised!
Wear your tin foil hat for my absolutely true conspiracy theory.
CG sets up special drop rates for snowflake accounts. Rest of the community who bothers to sample and has a better understanding of statistics always get the same drop rates on average and decent sample sizes. This is just to mess with your heads.