Speed secondaries and slicing - 0/26 on blue mods

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Sirlagzalott
838 posts Member
edited May 16
I’ve been focusing on slicing blue mods with +10 speed secondaries. I’ve sliced 26 mods and not a single one has increased speed. Am I missing something or is this just bad RNG?

Replies

  • jkray622
    1311 posts Member
    The odds of that happening are about 0.0564% chance. Seems very low. However, in a population of 1M players, about 564 of then will likely see similar results.

    So it's unlucky to be in that pool, but not unreasonable.
  • DadKev
    101 posts Member
    Bad rng
  • You need to want it more
  • I had to look this up, but isn't the probability of that happening actually 2.22e-16%? It would be great if someone could correct me, but if each individual instance of getting a speed secondary is 25% and you tried that 26 times, then the probability of not getting any speedy secondaries is 25%/(4^25), right? That is absolutely awful RNG.
  • Liath
    3731 posts Member
    thehi13 wrote: »
    I had to look this up, but isn't the probability of that happening actually 2.22e-16%? It would be great if someone could correct me, but if each individual instance of getting a speed secondary is 25% and you tried that 26 times, then the probability of not getting any speedy secondaries is 25%/(4^25), right? That is absolutely awful RNG.

    I’m not entirely clear on your notation but I think you are calculating the probability of speed hitting all 26 times. The probability that speed doesn’t hit is 75%, not 25% (assuming all secondaries have an equal chance which I’m not sure has ever been proven).

    But regardless of the specific probability, if it happened to the OP (assuming that the OP is not mistaken as to the facts), then the only options are that it was bad RNG or that something has gone wrong with the OP’s account specifically (since there is no universal problem of speed never slicing), and bad RNG is far more likely by a huge order of magnitude.
  • Dk_rek
    2557 posts Member
    thehi13 wrote: »
    I had to look this up, but isn't the probability of that happening actually 2.22e-16%? It would be great if someone could correct me, but if each individual instance of getting a speed secondary is 25% and you tried that 26 times, then the probability of not getting any speedy secondaries is 25%/(4^25), right? That is absolutely awful RNG.

    But it's not 25% some dude on reddit has massive sample size or something..... I think ONCE you have the speed secondary it's 25% chance to increase....but GETTING the speed secondary according to data is below 25%
  • Liath
    3731 posts Member
    Dk_rek wrote: »
    thehi13 wrote: »
    I had to look this up, but isn't the probability of that happening actually 2.22e-16%? It would be great if someone could correct me, but if each individual instance of getting a speed secondary is 25% and you tried that 26 times, then the probability of not getting any speedy secondaries is 25%/(4^25), right? That is absolutely awful RNG.

    But it's not 25% some dude on reddit has massive sample size or something..... I think ONCE you have the speed secondary it's 25% chance to increase....but GETTING the speed secondary according to data is below 25%

    The OP is talking about slicing mods that already have speed secondaries.
  • Yes, GETTING speed is not 25% as there are 12 secondaries. That sounds like 8.333% to me.
    Officer of recruiting for Ewoks Fit In Blenders. Traya on farm. 2 spots open, ask me for an invite.
  • Dk_rek
    2557 posts Member
    Yes, GETTING speed is not 25% as there are 12 secondaries. That sounds like 8.333% to me.

    yes
  • evoluza
    1819 posts Member
    Yes, GETTING speed is not 25% as there are 12 secondaries. That sounds like 8.333% to me.

    One slice causes out of 4 secondaries. I don't know where you get the other 8 from... As every slice has his own probabilities.
  • TVF
    12521 posts Member
    evoluza wrote: »
    Yes, GETTING speed is not 25% as there are 12 secondaries. That sounds like 8.333% to me.

    One slice causes out of 4 secondaries. I don't know where you get the other 8 from... As every slice has his own probabilities.

    A slice can be female too :p
    TVF's guild is recruiting. Say hi in our Discord! https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Dk_rek
    2557 posts Member
    edited May 16
    TVF wrote: »
    evoluza wrote: »
    Yes, GETTING speed is not 25% as there are 12 secondaries. That sounds like 8.333% to me.

    One slice causes out of 4 secondaries. I don't know where you get the other 8 from... As every slice has his own probabilities.

    A slice can be female too :p

    or a delicious soda

    orange slice whipped cream vodka satisfies when i realize all the scotch is gone

    drunken zeta ragrets big part of my life
  • Rath_Tarr wrote: »
    Next time roll up your trouser leg, sacrifice a chicken and pray to whatever RNG gods you believe in. Even if it doesn't work you can still have roast chicken for dinner. :D

    This. But I prefer goats to chickens.
  • Definitely not RNG I've been upgrading tons of gold and purples and the vast majority of the time speed is the only thing that doesn't upgrade
  • That said; I had no speed secondaries roll for months then got 3 at over 20 in the last month soooo....
  • TVF
    12521 posts Member
    Definitely not RNG I've been upgrading tons of gold and purples and the vast majority of the time speed is the only thing that doesn't upgrade

    That's not how it works.
    TVF's guild is recruiting. Say hi in our Discord! https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • I had a purple mod just drop today from the event, added speed on upgrade then proceeded to only hit speed, (4) +18 speed, guess I got your RNG, thank you.
    Officer of recruiting for Ewoks Fit In Blenders. Traya on farm. 2 spots open, ask me for an invite.
  • Rath_Tarr
    1881 posts Member
    Definitely not RNG I've been upgrading tons of gold and purples and the vast majority of the time speed is the only thing that doesn't upgrade
    Definitely not a scientific analysis. :D
  • Dk_rek
    2557 posts Member
    Pray to Jobu
    1duglookzbso.jpeg

    he will come
  • I didn't look so close on % when speed happens to increase during slicing, but of course it does happen, but really RNG based.

    But what i noticed in the last few weeks slicing blue mods with speed stats, that if speed got increased, very often only by +1, very rarely with higher numbers.
  • Palanthian
    1102 posts Member
    When you play the Game of Mods, you roll speed, or you sell.
  • Huatimus
    3669 posts Member
    Manumicio wrote: »
    I didn't look so close on % when speed happens to increase during slicing, but of course it does happen, but really RNG based.

    But what i noticed in the last few weeks slicing blue mods with speed stats, that if speed got increased, very often only by +1, very rarely with higher numbers.

    Are you sure? I've never seen anything lesser than a +3 for slicing on speed.
  • Rath_Tarr
    1881 posts Member
    Huatimus wrote: »
    Manumicio wrote: »
    I didn't look so close on % when speed happens to increase during slicing, but of course it does happen, but really RNG based.

    But what i noticed in the last few weeks slicing blue mods with speed stats, that if speed got increased, very often only by +1, very rarely with higher numbers.

    Are you sure? I've never seen anything lesser than a +3 for slicing on speed.
    Ditto. The only time I've seen +1 speed on a slice is slicing a mod with a speed secondary up to 6-dot.
  • I am 100% sure that speed secondaries are designed to roll less than others. I spend 3 refreshes to buy mods every day for the past year. While I don’t keep track, I know that speed is handicapped
  • jkray622 wrote: »
    The odds of that happening are about 0.0564% chance. Seems very low. However, in a population of 1M players, about 564 of then will likely see similar results.

    So it's unlucky to be in that pool, but not unreasonable.

    That is sexy. We are Borg.
  • Manumicio wrote: »
    I didn't look so close on % when speed happens to increase during slicing, but of course it does happen, but really RNG based.

    But what i noticed in the last few weeks slicing blue mods with speed stats, that if speed got increased, very often only by +1, very rarely with higher numbers.

    Yeah, that doesn't happen. Ever
  • evoluza wrote: »
    Yes, GETTING speed is not 25% as there are 12 secondaries. That sounds like 8.333% to me.

    One slice causes out of 4 secondaries. I don't know where you get the other 8 from... As every slice has his own probabilities.

    Trying to teach probabilities on a forum thread is probably as ineffective as the people on here that dont get probabilities
    Take it from a chemistry teacher
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