Character Shard Payouts

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Hi all. New to the forum so forgive me if this has been bought up before. I've played the game for a few years now and whilst I realise EA need to make money I have become very disappointed with the character shard payouts in Cantina, Fleet, Light and Dark Side Battles. I am currently farming several different ships and characters and can go days withouts getting anything. And it's been getting worse. At this rate it will take years. Is this a glitch, bad luck or a deliberate ploy to make us spend money?

Replies

  • AlexanderG
    1927 posts Member
    There's been a lot of data collection and the consensus (for the most part) is that you'll average about 1 shard per 3 sims. This is for character and ship shards.
  • I regularly do the maximum 5 a day on several characters at the moment and receive either 0 or 1 shards. Just did 10 attempts on a ship in fleet battles - 1, just 1 shards. It's woeful
  • Liath
    5140 posts Member
    Track your attempts every single time over a long period. Chances are you too will find that they approach the 1/3 drop rate over a large sample size. If you just rely on memories and feelings instead of data you are likely to be incorrect because humans are notoriously terrible at judging this sort of thing.
  • AlexanderG
    1927 posts Member
    It's certainly frustrating when we get a run of bad RNG. But I really do believe the long term drop rate is 33% or thereabouts. I'd suggest you put together a spreadsheet and diligently record your farming outcomes. I think you'll also find the same thing but you need a lot of data. Not a few days as you can't work out the long term average.
  • Gouj4
    416 posts Member
    Fleet battle shards have been particularly bad for me, went 3 full days without getting a single zaalbar shard last week. A solid 0 out of 15
  • TVF
    36528 posts Member
    Is this a glitch, bad luck or a deliberate ploy to make us spend money?

    It's the second one.

    You can work out how long it will take for a farm based on the 33% drop rate. Over the length of the farm, the final drop rate will come pretty close to that number.

    If you don't want the farm to take forever, you'll (probably) need to stop doing several farms and just focus on a couple. Refresh the node at least once, and more if you can afford the crystals.
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • TVF
    36528 posts Member
    Gouj4 wrote: »
    Fleet battle shards have been particularly bad for me, went 3 full days without getting a single zaalbar shard last week. A solid 0 out of 15

    That will happen over a small sample size like 15.
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Guys i have been monitoring it for the last few months and it's exactly as i say. That's what bought me to the forum.
  • AlexanderG
    1927 posts Member
    Gouj4 wrote: »
    Fleet battle shards have been particularly bad for me, went 3 full days without getting a single zaalbar shard last week. A solid 0 out of 15

    While I don't doubt what you said, I think there's a human tendency to remember worse than average outcomes and gloss over the better than average ones. I know last week I did 20 sims on a G12 finisher piece and didn't get a single drop (gear drop rates are different but I remember it clearly as it was particularly annoying). So confirmation bias, essentially.
  • AdmiralAJRimmer
    7 posts Member
    edited July 2020
    33% would be a dream. I farm several characters because of the 5 a day max and use all my crystals on gear
  • TVF
    36528 posts Member
    Guys i have been monitoring it for the last few months and it's exactly as i say. That's what bought me to the forum.

    "monitoring"

    Tracking all your sims? Can you show your data?
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Tracking all your sims? Can you show your data?[/quote]

    Show my data? Why would I wanna do that
  • Joebo720
    646 posts Member
    It's 33% on each shard. It's not cumulative. There are definitely days when i get 0 of the shards i want. But other days i'll do 5 sims and get 3 shards. Heck i've rolled a full cantina energy sim and got 0 shards. It will even out in the end. If you are on a bad streak now, it will even out over time.
  • AlexanderG
    1927 posts Member
    Tracking all your sims? Can you show your data?

    Show my data? Why would I wanna do that [/quote]

    You would be presenting an idea that is supported by actual data rather than a recollection, a feeling, an observation etc. As one of the replies said above, humans just aren't great at accurately recalling this stuff from memory alone.
  • Why do you keep saying humans like you aren't one? :D Look guys I was just hoping for some friendly advice
  • TVF
    36528 posts Member
    I gave you some (focus your farms and refresh) and you rejected it, so I don't know what else you want.
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Apparently I opened the wrong door and fell into a courtroom full of mechanoids :D
  • TVF
    36528 posts Member
    You fell into a courtroom of people with data and experience. Sorry you just wanted a bunch of people to agree with you.
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • AlexanderG
    1927 posts Member
    Why do you keep saying humans like you aren't one? :D Look guys I was just hoping for some friendly advice

    I'm not saying I'm any better or trying to be unfriendly. I tracked my sim outcomes for about 6 months and from that I could see that the much cited 33% drop rate was correct.

    I don't know what other advice I can give you. Sorry.
  • So rude and judgemental. Never mind
  • Gouj4
    416 posts Member


    AlexanderG wrote: »

    While I don't doubt what you said, I think there's a human tendency to remember worse than average outcomes and gloss over the better than average ones. I know last week I did 20 sims on a G12 finisher piece and didn't get a single drop (gear drop rates are different but I remember it clearly as it was particularly annoying). So confirmation bias, essentially.

    Yeah you’re probably right, was probably made worse by the fact I only needed the 5 shards and it ended up taking like 6 days to get it. I know it is the 33% I’ve seen everyone say but sometimes it just feels so much less so can get annoying.
  • TVF
    36528 posts Member
    Gouj4 wrote: »

    AlexanderG wrote: »

    While I don't doubt what you said, I think there's a human tendency to remember worse than average outcomes and gloss over the better than average ones. I know last week I did 20 sims on a G12 finisher piece and didn't get a single drop (gear drop rates are different but I remember it clearly as it was particularly annoying). So confirmation bias, essentially.

    Yeah you’re probably right, was probably made worse by the fact I only needed the 5 shards and it ended up taking like 6 days to get it. I know it is the 33% I’ve seen everyone say but sometimes it just feels so much less so can get annoying.

    Just to clarify it's not just everyone saying. There is actual data that has been crowdsourced showing it's right around 33%.
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Gouj4
    416 posts Member
    edited July 2020
    TVF wrote: »


    Just to clarify it's not just everyone saying. There is actual data that has been crowdsourced showing it's right around 33%.

    Yeah I’ve seen people talk about it I’ve just not seen it myself so it was easier to say “everyone saying”. I’m not disputing it I’m just saying sometimes it does feel less but i guess I was just on a bad run at the time.
  • Cara Dune: 22/50 (44%)
    Greef Karga: 15/45 (33%)
    Mando: 16/50 (32%)

    @AdmiralAJRimmer Keep track of your farming data like this. One of 2 things will happen:

    1) your theory will be proved correct

    2) your drop rates will actually settle at 33%

    Most drop rate conspiracists refuse to track their data properly. The ones that do it soon accept that there’s nothing weird going on.
  • TVF
    36528 posts Member
    edited July 2020
    Cara Dune: 22/50 (44%)
    I've been saying that CG is too generous with shard drops and this proves it.
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Waqui
    8802 posts Member
    Guys i have been monitoring it for the last few months and it's exactly as i say. That's what bought me to the forum.

    Since you've been monitoring your attempts:

    How many battles did you fight/Sim? How many character shards dropped in those attempts? Did you track it individually for each of your farms?
  • Waqui
    8802 posts Member
    Tracking all your sims? Can you show your data?

    Show my data? Why would I wanna do that

    Why? To convince us all that you really experienced some extraordinary low drop rates. Why would you not want to do that?

  • kiar1404
    241 posts Member
    edited July 2020
    It is always the same ... Money buys you time.
    Farming too slow? - buy crystals
    Building your house too slow? - hire some worksmen
    Cooking a diner for 20 persons too much work? - pay a caterer
    Walking from one end of the city to the other takes too long? - get a train/subway/bus/taxi ... or buy a car
    Don't want to wait for you favorite TV-show in free tv - get netflix/amazon/...
    Be patient or be a spender
    I was a spender till Malak - don't know if I will spend again ... right now I know farming takes time - I calculate in month - not in days or weeks
  • Nikoms565
    14242 posts Member
    edited July 2020
    So rude and judgemental. Never mind

    No one is being rude or judgemental. They were just explaining that anyone in the long history of this game that has actually tracked shard drop rates for any character over a decent sample size always. ALWAYS. Has gotten about a 33% drop rate. That's not rude or judgemental - it's factual. I apologize if you find reality "rude" or "judgmental". ;)
    In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie

    In game guild: TNR Uprising
    I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
    *This space left intentionally blank*
  • Why do you keep saying humans like you aren't one? :D Look guys I was just hoping for some friendly advice

    Honestly, I think you're getting the advice. Look at the drop rates over a long period of time. Just like TVF said a sample size of 15 is small. Not statistically insignificant but not large enough to really count. If you assume that the 1/3 chance to get a shard/blueprint per attempt is correct, that means that every time you get 2 shards/blueprints on 5 attempts, you are beating the average. Yes, it seems like you're getting the shaft. I've tracked my data for about a year and a half now and everything I've done points to 1/3 success rate. I've had the same thing where I'm having crappy drop rates on a node. B1 was that one for me. From the date I started tracking it took 2 weeks longer than anticipated, but my IG-2000 took less than predicted. Meanwhile I'm having lots of 0 days on Nihilus but am still staying on track. If you have your data saved for a length, double check it. It feels frustrating, I know. But if you look at it over the long term it'll keep true to the 1/3.
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