Tie Dagger daily refreshes

Replies

  • AlexanderG
    1927 posts Member
    Obviously there’s no conclusive proof, but it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility that they might attach a lower than usual drop rate to this chase, given that it’ll be needed at 7* to just unlock the new CS.
    The problem with that sort of conspiratorial chat is that the drop rates have been different for different ships before.

    3%, which this ship clearly is, is not lower than usual as there have been other ships dropping at that rate.

    Agreed. All the data I've seen or experienced myself (a small data sample, admittedly) points to an average of 3%.
  • ragnoris
    70 posts Member
    Instead of 1212 from natural should be 2020, which means 57 refreshes, so 7 days of 7 and 1 day of 8.
  • Notthatguyfrombefore
    1061 posts Member
    edited May 2023
    Obviously there’s no conclusive proof, but it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility that they might attach a lower than usual drop rate to this chase, given that it’ll be needed at 7* to just unlock the new CS.
    The problem with that sort of conspiratorial chat is that the drop rates have been different for different ships before.

    3%, which this ship clearly is, is not lower than usual as there have been other ships dropping at that rate.

    I wasn’t aware that previous ships had had different chase drop rates. Were there any in particular you can remember as having higher or lower ones. Just interested.

    I do know that I’m just looking at confirmation bias given my own drop rate so far has been close to 2.5%. Some people will end up with higher or lower than 3% (that’s just how stats work), it just sucks this time around to be tracking below the average personally. Maybe I’ll get luckier with the second new release that’ll be needed for Leviathan.
    Account started June 2020. 100% FTP. 8.2m GP. JMK, JML, SLKR, and SEE. Exe and Levi. Ally code 117-269-921. Swgoh.gg
  • ragnoris
    70 posts Member
    ragnoris wrote: »
    Also are there 3 100 refreshes available a day? I normally only do the 50’s.
    Yes there are 3 x 100 a day.

    Rest of your maths looks about right to me, apart from getting 10 energy per hour… 😉

    Thanks. That’s what I get for not labeling anything to make sure anyone who walks by thinks I’m doing actual work…
  • Obviously there’s no conclusive proof, but it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility that they might attach a lower than usual drop rate to this chase, given that it’ll be needed at 7* to just unlock the new CS.
    The problem with that sort of conspiratorial chat is that the drop rates have been different for different ships before.

    3%, which this ship clearly is, is not lower than usual as there have been other ships dropping at that rate.

    I wasn’t aware that previous ships had had different chase drop rates. Were there any in particular you can remember as having higher or lower ones. Just interested.

    I do know that I’m just looking at confirmation bias given my own drop rate so far has been close to 2.5%. Some people will end up with higher or lower than 3% (that’s just how stats work), it just sucks this time around to be tracking below the average personally. Maybe I’ll get luckier with the second new release that’ll be needed for Leviathan.
    Speaking of how stats work, it’s a little early to decry your drops. You could easily get above 3% by the end of tomorrow.
  • AlexanderG
    1927 posts Member
    Obviously there’s no conclusive proof, but it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility that they might attach a lower than usual drop rate to this chase, given that it’ll be needed at 7* to just unlock the new CS.
    The problem with that sort of conspiratorial chat is that the drop rates have been different for different ships before.

    3%, which this ship clearly is, is not lower than usual as there have been other ships dropping at that rate.

    I wasn’t aware that previous ships had had different chase drop rates. Were there any in particular you can remember as having higher or lower ones. Just interested.

    I do know that I’m just looking at confirmation bias given my own drop rate so far has been close to 2.5%. Some people will end up with higher or lower than 3% (that’s just how stats work), it just sucks this time around to be tracking below the average personally. Maybe I’ll get luckier with the second new release that’ll be needed for Leviathan.

    The TIE Defender was generous. 5% maybe?

    If you stick with the TIE Dagger farm, you'll probably find the drop rate will even out. I'd stick it out if you can - you've got 8 days left.
  • Obviously there’s no conclusive proof, but it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility that they might attach a lower than usual drop rate to this chase, given that it’ll be needed at 7* to just unlock the new CS.
    The problem with that sort of conspiratorial chat is that the drop rates have been different for different ships before.

    3%, which this ship clearly is, is not lower than usual as there have been other ships dropping at that rate.

    I wasn’t aware that previous ships had had different chase drop rates. Were there any in particular you can remember as having higher or lower ones. Just interested.

    I do know that I’m just looking at confirmation bias given my own drop rate so far has been close to 2.5%. Some people will end up with higher or lower than 3% (that’s just how stats work), it just sucks this time around to be tracking below the average personally. Maybe I’ll get luckier with the second new release that’ll be needed for Leviathan.
    Speaking of how stats work, it’s a little early to decry your drops. You could easily get above 3% by the end of tomorrow.

    Not necessarily. Assuming a Poissonian distribution (which seems most appropriate for this combination of probability and trials) having this drop rate puts me in the bottom 10%. Obviously it can improve, but at the end of the day there’s a fair probability people will end up with less than the average. I’m not actually that annoyed about it, more of an inconvenience.
    Account started June 2020. 100% FTP. 8.2m GP. JMK, JML, SLKR, and SEE. Exe and Levi. Ally code 117-269-921. Swgoh.gg
  • AlexanderG
    1927 posts Member
    Obviously there’s no conclusive proof, but it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility that they might attach a lower than usual drop rate to this chase, given that it’ll be needed at 7* to just unlock the new CS.
    The problem with that sort of conspiratorial chat is that the drop rates have been different for different ships before.

    3%, which this ship clearly is, is not lower than usual as there have been other ships dropping at that rate.

    I wasn’t aware that previous ships had had different chase drop rates. Were there any in particular you can remember as having higher or lower ones. Just interested.

    I do know that I’m just looking at confirmation bias given my own drop rate so far has been close to 2.5%. Some people will end up with higher or lower than 3% (that’s just how stats work), it just sucks this time around to be tracking below the average personally. Maybe I’ll get luckier with the second new release that’ll be needed for Leviathan.
    Speaking of how stats work, it’s a little early to decry your drops. You could easily get above 3% by the end of tomorrow.

    Not necessarily. Assuming a Poissonian distribution (which seems most appropriate for this combination of probability and trials) having this drop rate puts me in the bottom 10%. Obviously it can improve, but at the end of the day there’s a fair probability people will end up with less than the average. I’m not actually that annoyed about it, more of an inconvenience.

    While you might end up with less than average (although the event only dropped yesterday - and there's no reason to think that you're just stuck behind unfavourable RNG) - I'd still push it. Personally, I'd much rather get as close as I can rather than farm it on a hard node. Now that's a pain.
  • TVF
    36526 posts Member
    AlexanderG wrote: »
    Obviously there’s no conclusive proof, but it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility that they might attach a lower than usual drop rate to this chase, given that it’ll be needed at 7* to just unlock the new CS.
    The problem with that sort of conspiratorial chat is that the drop rates have been different for different ships before.

    3%, which this ship clearly is, is not lower than usual as there have been other ships dropping at that rate.

    I wasn’t aware that previous ships had had different chase drop rates. Were there any in particular you can remember as having higher or lower ones. Just interested.

    I do know that I’m just looking at confirmation bias given my own drop rate so far has been close to 2.5%. Some people will end up with higher or lower than 3% (that’s just how stats work), it just sucks this time around to be tracking below the average personally. Maybe I’ll get luckier with the second new release that’ll be needed for Leviathan.

    The TIE Defender was generous. 5% maybe?

    4%
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Joebo720
    646 posts Member
    Thought TD was 3% as well.
  • I guess I'm on the low end with 27 from 1029 Ship Energy.
    When you're accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression.

    Started mid-FEB 2017, and not trying to reach the top.
  • AlexanderG
    1927 posts Member
    I guess I'm on the low end with 27 from 1029 Ship Energy.

    I got 30 from about the same.
  • I’m a conspiracy believer. I’m convinced day 1 drop rates are always higher. After max saving to almost 1200 energy plus the refreshes through 100s, on Day 1, I did sims in sets of five. I had zero zeros and even a 5 of 5. I ended up with 68 shards. Throughout the day, I picked up 12 more shards.
    This morning with my overnight earned energy plus the 100s refreshes, I earned 21 shards.
  • BubbaFett
    3311 posts Member
    Range1974 wrote: »
    I’m a conspiracy believer. I’m convinced day 1 drop rates are always higher. After max saving to almost 1200 energy plus the refreshes through 100s, on Day 1, I did sims in sets of five. I had zero zeros and even a 5 of 5. I ended up with 68 shards. Throughout the day, I picked up 12 more shards.
    This morning with my overnight earned energy plus the 100s refreshes, I earned 21 shards.

    But did you wear the same underwear on day 2 that you wore on day 1?..... Were you sitting in the same chair?... :)

    All kidding aside, your drop rate for day one was 3.5%, your drop rate for day 2 was (roughly) 2.5%... That puts you right at the 3% average....

    FYI, that was your 777th post, better start simming...
  • LordDirt
    4941 posts Member
    After today’s refreshes I am at 21/65.
    Why wasn't Cobb Vanth shards a reward for the Krayt Dragon raid? Why wasn't Endor Gear Luke shards a reward for the Speeder Bike raid?
  • crzydroid
    7254 posts Moderator
    Egnards had estimated 7 refreshes a day (one of the 200s) if you had hoarded.

    I've been following that and my personal rate has been around 2.5%...after today it seems to be creeping towards 3% overall (83/2900).
  • LordDirt
    4941 posts Member
    54/65 after todays refreshes
    Why wasn't Cobb Vanth shards a reward for the Krayt Dragon raid? Why wasn't Endor Gear Luke shards a reward for the Speeder Bike raid?
  • 3/85 after today's refreshes.
  • So far I'm at 3.25% - I expect that to trend down though.

    x6v3u8wvx427.png
    F2P since the last time I bought Kyros, Crystals, or the Conquest Pass.
  • crzydroid
    7254 posts Moderator
    So far I'm at 3.25% - I expect that to trend down though.

    x6v3u8wvx427.png

    Nice. I'm only at 2.7%...109/4020. I'm going to need to start buying more refreshes.
  • So far I'm at 3.25% - I expect that to trend down though.

    Very jealous. I’m at 123 now for 4480 energy, a little over 2.7%
    Account started June 2020. 100% FTP. 8.2m GP. JMK, JML, SLKR, and SEE. Exe and Levi. Ally code 117-269-921. Swgoh.gg
  • herd_nerfer
    1749 posts Member
    So far I'm at 3.25% - I expect that to trend down though.

    Very jealous. I’m at 123 now for 4480 energy, a little over 2.7%

    Don't be too jealous - all it will take is one day of a lower average and my drop rate will tank lol

    On the bright side - a single day of above average drops brings you back in line with the expected rate.
    F2P since the last time I bought Kyros, Crystals, or the Conquest Pass.
  • LordDirt
    4941 posts Member
    21/85 after todays refreshes
    Why wasn't Cobb Vanth shards a reward for the Krayt Dragon raid? Why wasn't Endor Gear Luke shards a reward for the Speeder Bike raid?
  • 51/85 down to needing 27 a day.
  • 55/85 with 5 full days left. That's 26/day needed
  • LordDirt
    4941 posts Member
    You guys doing all three 200 refreshes a day?
    Why wasn't Cobb Vanth shards a reward for the Krayt Dragon raid? Why wasn't Endor Gear Luke shards a reward for the Speeder Bike raid?
  • LordDirt wrote: »
    You guys doing all three 200 refreshes a day?

    I've been doing 2 of the 200c refreshes daily and am at 167/330 shards. That was with 1000+ energy hoarded before the chase started.
    Account started June 2020. 100% FTP. 8.2m GP. JMK, JML, SLKR, and SEE. Exe and Levi. Ally code 117-269-921. Swgoh.gg
  • I'm at 147/330, with 1x200 every day. Depending on luck I may need a couple extra 200's towards the end.
  • LordDirt
    4941 posts Member
    Just wondering how some have 30+ more shards. I have been doing on 200 refresh a day.
    Why wasn't Cobb Vanth shards a reward for the Krayt Dragon raid? Why wasn't Endor Gear Luke shards a reward for the Speeder Bike raid?
  • BubbaFett
    3311 posts Member
    LordDirt wrote: »
    Just wondering how some have 30+ more shards. I have been doing on 200 refresh a day.

    Did you preload 1000 ship energy before the chase started?
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