Found this talk illuminating about the dynamics and health of the market, wanted to share.
Here are a few opinions how this applies to SW/CG:
I've played CG's still ongoing game Hoda for two years without spending a single dime. In that games most of the high end content has always been away from f2p reach regardless of effort put in. That's besides f2p saving for at least a month to have a go at the slot machine which will once again at the best get a single unit out of the meta. Due to lack of balance in initial release, the game pushed immense power creep which basically made all previous content starting from a few releases ago subpar and out of meta. Many players dropped the game due to this snowball of constant cashin demand. The game contracted to in my guesstimate supported by 20k people in it's current state.
When SW came out, I didn't want to check it out. I wanted to go through HODAs lifetime till the end and get out of mobile market forever. While just trying to experience the hype, I played SW for a few days. This made me quit HODA all together. After principal -never spend a dime- policy I enforced on myself, I spent a total of $15 here because the deals felt worth it.
Compared to HODA and Hearthstone example in the video this game falls in between. F2p can be competetive in this game currently with patience and well planning. Balance is somewhat present also, a good portion of the avaliable units are in a usable state, if not the best. CGs movie releases startled me since I find this out of their habit. Finn,Poe,Phasma,Rey are all good, but not op replacement units and they are mostly avaliable to all the playerbase.
Yet given the shard system, not all game locations being fast enough to farm them to full in a months time and refill costs climbing after few; I think they would have pulled a full hearthstone on us easily and make everything avaliable across the game. I'm optimistic and wary of where we are at the same time. They seem to have different intentions with SW than HODA. But any moment they create the power creep snowball we can get into the infinite cycle where key pieces in upcoming metas are kept out of reach. I'll adjust my expectations and desire to play long term looking at next 2 character releases and overall direction.