Deconstructing the Galactic War Power Curve: A Detailed Look

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Please don't merge this right away. Thanks for your consideration. I posted this in the GW Feedback section, but thought it might also be of interest to the General Discussion topic. The thread over there is: https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/58768/deconstructing-the-galactic-war-power-curve-a-detailed-look
I originally posted a discussion about the GW power curve on 2016/06/30. Thread is here and recapped in the spoiler below.
https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/50621/sorry-everyone-i-broke-gw-todays-power-breakdown
I ran an experiment to determine how GW nodes were scaled: was the opponents power scaled based on the player's best Arena power, the player's 5 most powerful heroes regardless of Arena (I'll call them the Top5), or something else? EA/CG changed the algorithm on me twice during the experiment, so that limited the amount of data I could collect.

During the experiment, I held my Arena power and Top5 constant. Some of my Top5 were in my Arena team, and the top of my roster was fairly equal so my Top5 and Arena power were almost the same at ~35k. Not an ideal situation, but that's how it was. After GW was retuned on 06/30, I determined, by node, the new power curve based on Arena power was:
  1. 60.0%
  2. 62.5%
  3. 70.1%
  4. 61.1%
  5. 64.5%
  6. 95.5%
  7. 76.2%
  8. 77.0%
  9. 100.4%
  10. 86.3%
  11. 104.1%
  12. 115.4%

That curve was calculated on 06/30 and confirmed on 07/01.

As it turns out, the curves in the previous post were a little off because I was eventually able to determine that Top5 is more important to GW scaling. So, let's go over it all again, shall we?

Warning: there's a lot of data below. Peruse at your own risk.

A. GW Power Curve, pre-06/15
Based on Top5 power levels:
  1. 60%
  2. 65%
  3. 70%
  4. 77%
  5. 80%
  6. 84%
  7. 90%
  8. 95%
  9. 96%
  10. 97%
  11. 97%
  12. 100%
This part of the study didn't actually prove anything sadly, but you might be interested in seeing what we used to deal with.
  • Arena: 34883
  • Top5: 35047
I started collecting data on 06/08, although I wasn't doing a great job at first. During this period I managed to collect data from 8 GW runs. I completed all of them. Here's the power levels for those runs, both mine and my opponents:
KEPYuY9.png
You can see I was a bit sketchy at first, and clearly did an upgrade to my Arena squad on 06/10, but the power level was constant from then on. I don't recall what happened on 06/14 to boost the Top5 by 30 points, but this was a small change and I'm just going to ignore it.
If you convert those numbers into percentages based on Arena power levels, you get the following curve:
HRTZHCt.png
Converting into percentages based on Top5 power, you get:
SjJEZ1h.png
The curves are basically the same and we haven't proven anything yet. Then CG retuned the GW matching algorithm on 06/15 and screwed up my experiment this work went out the window.

B. GW Power Curve, 06/15 - 06/29
Based on Top5 power levels:
  1. 60%
  2. 62%
  3. 70%
  4. 61%
  5. 62%
  6. 80%
  7. 71%
  8. 72%
  9. 84%
  10. 81%
  11. 99%
  12. 100%
This part of the study didn't actually prove anything either because CG retuned GW again on 06/30. I was still collecting data to baseline the curve. But here it is
  • Arena: 34883
  • Top5: 35047
During this period I collected data from 14 GW runs. I completed all of them. Here's the power levels for those runs, both mine and my opponents:
yCAiaI1.png
Still some holes in the data because sometimes I just forgot to record it. One funny looking number shown in yellow because it just doesn't fit. Maybe I added wrong, I don't know and I honestly don't care anymore.
Percentages based on Arena power levels:
bMnsOUp.png
Percentages based on Top5 power:
pMlyL0W.png
Again, the curves are basically the same and we still haven't proven anything yet. After the 06/29 run, I decided it was time to power up one of my non-Arena Top5 and find out what was what. So I upgraded Savage Opress from L77-IX to L80-X, increasing his power from 6779 to 7540. This of course, coincided with CG's GW retune on 06/30, the one they didn't tell us about.

C. GW Power Curve, post-06/30
Based on Top5 power levels:
  1. 59%
  2. 61%
  3. 69%
  4. 60%
  5. 61%
  6. 93%
  7. 74%
  8. 75%
  9. 98%
  10. 84%
  11. 101%
  12. 112%
This is it, the one you've been waiting for. Proof! Kind of.
Having learned my lesson from the last two tries at this experiment, I started ramping up my Top5 after the first 9 runs to see what would happen. Guess what? Things started to change.
Now, it's critical you understand this: Arena power was constant throughout this period. If GW were based on the max power level of my Arena wins, then increasing my Top5 power should not have affected my GW opponents. It did, therefore, GW is scaled based on Top5, not Arena.
  • Arena: 34883
  • Top5 (ending): 36468
During this period I collected data from 13 GW runs. I may have actually completed two of the runs; I know I finished the run on 07/11 when I got an easy node 12 (that's the only one I've ever seen). Here's the power levels for those runs, both mine and my opponents:
c0c6F1j.png
A couple of data holes but not bad. 07/12 was Mod update day. I couldn't get past 9 on that run. After that, I was just disgusted with the whole GW thing and quit the experiment.
Percentages based on Arena power levels:
2Pr9bep.png
Percentages based on Top5 power:
yhA6KtY.png

Hold on a second. Before you math freaks point it out, the averages and standard deviations shown here are only for the GW runs through 07/09. Things really started to go haywire as I upgraded my Top5 after that point. You can see it in the percentages: check out Nodes 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9 ...
That craziness in the percentages just added a more questions.
  1. Are the node % levels really what I've shown above? They're varying so much, it's hard to know.
  2. Perhaps the percentages aren't based on Top5, but instead some other metric (Top6? Top10?). I could explore this concept more thoroughly if I wanted to, I have all the records, but I just don't care enough anymore.
  3. Maybe the matchmaking isn't based on straight percentages. If it isn't, then what is it based on?
  4. If matchmaking isn't based on percentages, they why do I reliably get the same percentages when I hold power constant? If it's based on some other algorithm, one would think the standard deviations would be larger.
  5. Was CG retuning GW difficulty yet again during my experiment?

So there you have it. The power curve shown in section C is probably close to correct, or at least was at some point. I may not have been able to nail it down exactly, but one thing I can say 100% for sure:
GW node scaling is definitely NOT based on Arena power, but is instead more affected by the most powerful heroes in your roster.

Now that I regularly can't get past node 9 anymore (sometimes 6), I am too fed up and disgusted with the GW to put anymore effort into it. For the record, I am currently sitting at
  • Arena: 36749
  • Top5: 37702

And that's it from here.

Cheers

Replies

  • Yudoka
    1274 posts Member
    If you have droids, use them. If not, get them. My full droid team makes GW nearly auto. Last night was easiest yet, finishing the run with everyone having some protection intact, with two still retaining 100%. Heck, I cleared node 11 without the opposing team getting a single shot off. Droids are pretty busted for PvE right now.
    They groaned, they stirred, they all uprose, Nor spoke, nor moved their eyes; It had been strange, even in a dream, To have seen those dead men rise.
  • Yudoka wrote: »
    If you have droids, use them. If not, get them. My full droid team makes GW nearly auto. Last night was easiest yet, finishing the run with everyone having some protection intact, with two still retaining 100%. Heck, I cleared node 11 without the opposing team getting a single shot off. Droids are pretty busted for PvE right now.

    I think you missed the point. I'm not looking for advice, but thank you.
  • Interesting analysis. Thanks for crunching the numbers.
  • gobears21
    1265 posts Member
    Well that doesn't match up to my GW at all... and if you can't finish GW where are you getting your numbers from?
  • Yudoka
    1274 posts Member
    Yudoka wrote: »
    If you have droids, use them. If not, get them. My full droid team makes GW nearly auto. Last night was easiest yet, finishing the run with everyone having some protection intact, with two still retaining 100%. Heck, I cleared node 11 without the opposing team getting a single shot off. Droids are pretty busted for PvE right now.

    I think you missed the point. I'm not looking for advice, but thank you.

    My reply was to the final comment of your post about not being able to get past node 6 sometimes.
    They groaned, they stirred, they all uprose, Nor spoke, nor moved their eyes; It had been strange, even in a dream, To have seen those dead men rise.
  • gobears21 wrote: »
    Well that doesn't match up to my GW at all... and if you can't finish GW where are you getting your numbers from?

    I don't have to finish node 12 to know the power level, I only have to get there.
  • @Yudoka what do you mean by busted?
  • Yudoka
    1274 posts Member
    @Yudoka what do you mean by busted?

    Really good. Too good. It makes most combat where you can take droids into fairly trivial.

    They groaned, they stirred, they all uprose, Nor spoke, nor moved their eyes; It had been strange, even in a dream, To have seen those dead men rise.
  • Thanks for taking the time to do this before you got too frustrated. I can certainly appreciate that because I too have days where it's simply not worth the effort. They're becoming more frequent the higher I gear my characters now.

    It's sad to me that people just want to post negative things like "if you can't finish it, where are you getting your numbers from?", when you clearly said you NOW regularly can't get past node 9 and are too fed up with it to bother. Clearly that implies that prior to that happening, you were completing it and hence, that's where your numbers come from. Sad that this is such a toxic topic that people can't even use common sense to draw conclusions from.

    I appreciate the effort it took to put this together and wish the developers would take some of this excellent feedback into consideration, but I just don't see that happening at this point.
  • Yudoka, what is your droid team roster?
  • So the take away being that if you have 5 really powerful toons and the rest are underdeveloped you will struggle?

    What you are saying about top 5 makes sense though. Once I got GS to 7* and Old Daka up to gear 9 I noticed a sharp increase in GW difficulty (last two nodes).
  • Yudoka
    1274 posts Member
    ScottyLee wrote: »
    Yudoka, what is your droid team roster?

    @ScottyLee

    HK lead, 88, 86, JE. The three droids are just about at the cap with everything and use optimized 1 and 2 star mods. JE is 5* and G8 but his stats don't really matter as his abilities largely ignore his own stats. The last slot can be whatever. I'll sometimes run QGJ for more DPS or RG if I'm up against a node where I need some protection.
    They groaned, they stirred, they all uprose, Nor spoke, nor moved their eyes; It had been strange, even in a dream, To have seen those dead men rise.
  • Doggirl211 wrote: »
    Thanks for taking the time to do this before you got too frustrated. I can certainly appreciate that because I too have days where it's simply not worth the effort. They're becoming more frequent the higher I gear my characters now.

    It's sad to me that people just want to post negative things like "if you can't finish it, where are you getting your numbers from?", when you clearly said you NOW regularly can't get past node 9 and are too fed up with it to bother. Clearly that implies that prior to that happening, you were completing it and hence, that's where your numbers come from. Sad that this is such a toxic topic that people can't even use common sense to draw conclusions from.

    I appreciate the effort it took to put this together and wish the developers would take some of this excellent feedback into consideration, but I just don't see that happening at this point.

    He obviously didn't read any of the spoilers. TLDR. It's okay.
  • Agree with your power matching analysis - mine shows average of 99%/85%/103%/114% for last 4 nodes with variance +/-1%. No idea what basis is for additional matching on gear, abilities and mods (if any).
  • So the take away being that if you have 5 really powerful toons and the rest are underdeveloped you will struggle?

    What you are saying about top 5 makes sense though. Once I got GS to 7* and Old Daka up to gear 9 I noticed a sharp increase in GW difficulty (last two nodes).

    I first noticed this in April when I was starting to build a Nightsister team and starred-up Initiate. She never made it into Arena, but GW kept getting harder because she was one of my most powerful characters. I didn't have the numerical proof at the time, but it got me thinking and formulating this experiment.
  • pac0naut
    3236 posts Member
    Doggirl211 wrote: »
    I appreciate the effort it took to put this together and wish the developers would take some of this excellent feedback into consideration, but I just don't see that happening at this point.

    Same. No changes, working as intended unfortunately.
    Meanwhile, down on the farm....
  • Yudoka
    1274 posts Member
    So the take away being that if you have 5 really powerful toons and the rest are underdeveloped you will struggle?

    What you are saying about top 5 makes sense though. Once I got GS to 7* and Old Daka up to gear 9 I noticed a sharp increase in GW difficulty (last two nodes).

    I first noticed this in April when I was starting to build a Nightsister team and starred-up Initiate. She never made it into Arena, but GW kept getting harder because she was one of my most powerful characters. I didn't have the numerical proof at the time, but it got me thinking and formulating this experiment.

    Yeah, this formula can be very frustrating when even your most powerful toon isn't actually powerful. My highest power character right now is Puggle. But he actually pailes in comparison to majority of my other guys who are way below him. For Example, my Rey would be way more useful in GW yet she's about the 15th down the line in terms of actual power rating.

    So if you're top 5 guys are not DPS, you're going to have a fairly hard time with GW.
    They groaned, they stirred, they all uprose, Nor spoke, nor moved their eyes; It had been strange, even in a dream, To have seen those dead men rise.
  • I ran similar analysis pre-June 15th and found that the nodes were an increasing % of the mid-point between my top 5 strongest toons and my strongest arena team that had won (as shown in guild stats).

    This was the same figure post June 15th update, although the % were revised to make it easier.

    I haven't bothered monitoring it since they made it harder after June 29th, mainly because I find GW to be incredibly boring nowadays, and I don't want to prolong it completing it anymore than necessary!
  • I ran similar analysis pre-June 15th and found that the nodes were an increasing % of the mid-point between my top 5 strongest toons and my strongest arena team that had won (as shown in guild stats).

    This might explain why the percentages were going bonkers. But since the whole thing is buggered now, I don't care to explore it any further. Well done on you, though.
  • RoJaGiTa wrote: »
    Agree with your power matching analysis - mine shows average of 99%/85%/103%/114% for last 4 nodes with variance +/-1%. No idea what basis is for additional matching on gear, abilities and mods (if any).

    I did it one day and got those exact numbers for the last 4 nodes
  • If you increase the power of your top 5 toons with additional stars, gear or mods, the total power of your matches in GW will also increase. I have 26 toons with similar power levels and I use DPS team (QGJ, FOTP, IG86, GS and Rey - all with speed mods) to get me through GW every day.
    Yudoka wrote: »
    So the take away being that if you have 5 really powerful toons and the rest are underdeveloped you will struggle?

    What you are saying about top 5 makes sense though. Once I got GS to 7* and Old Daka up to gear 9 I noticed a sharp increase in GW difficulty (last two nodes).

    I first noticed this in April when I was starting to build a Nightsister team and starred-up Initiate. She never made it into Arena, but GW kept getting harder because she was one of my most powerful characters. I didn't have the numerical proof at the time, but it got me thinking and formulating this experiment.

    Yeah, this formula can be very frustrating when even your most powerful toon isn't actually powerful. My highest power character right now is Puggle. But he actually pailes in comparison to majority of my other guys who are way below him. For Example, my Rey would be way more useful in GW yet she's about the 15th down the line in terms of actual power rating.

    So if you're top 5 guys are not DPS, you're going to have a fairly hard time with GW.

  • leef
    13458 posts Member
    Is there some way to check enemy squad power that i'm not aware of, or did you add each individual character's power to make this post? If so, kudos for putting in the work! actually, kudos either way!
    I coincidentally checked node 6 and node 11 powers today, they are slightly higher than the percentages in powercurve C. (and my top5)
    Based on Top5 power levels:
    1. 59%
    2. 61%
    3. 69%
    4. 60%
    5. 61%
    6. 93%
    7. 74%
    8. 75%
    9. 98%
    10. 84%
    11. 101%
    12. 112%

    This doesnt seem that bad to me. Personally i face alot of freebies on node 12, but I'm fairly certain I would win 100% aswell vs a normal node 12. So please don't hold that against me.
    I would also like to note that some reports of players facing squads with 10k power more dont seem to fit in your model. If this model is correct, or atleast close enough to be assumed correct, that would mean some players are being untruthfull about the squads they face, or that EA/CG use different percentages in their matchmaking calculations.
    I can understand that the 112% pushes the enemy team just over that higher gear edge and make it a very, very hard battle though. +mods aren't powerfull in terms of squad power, but are the direct opposite in battle. Other than that, the percentages dont look that bad, still wondering why so many people are struggling with it. I dont consider myself a very good player, and i'm not having problems with GW whatsoever. I'm sorry to say it, but if this model is correct the always loved "learn to play" "get better toons" etc. arguments seem to be somewhat true.
    From that perspective i would like to say some things to why I am always drawn to those arguments. I try not to use them though, because its super counterproductive and makes me look like a duuche.
    I always liked GW, completing GW has always been a main goal for me, even more than finishing high in arena. I made some choices ingame characterwise to keep up with GW and to ensure that I could always finish it. Furthermore I use strategy; cooldown management, TM management, specific characters vs specific teams, saving good characters for the last nodes, fast retreating when i start of wrong, bringing in healers at the right moment etc etc. I know for fact that if i didnt do all these things i wouldnt be able to clear GW as consistandly as i've been doing. Since I also find it hard to believe that EA/CG would use a different matchmaking alghorithm/calculations for individual users, i cant help but wondering what others are doing wrong.
    But then agian, should only investing in 5 characters or wrong characters be punished this hard by giving those players a unbeatable GW? But also, should my GW be a cakewalk, wich will eventually become boring, because other players didnt invest in toons to stay competative in all modes of the game?
    Both perspectives make alot of sence to me, but in the end i'm just happy that i'm finishing GW without issues.
    sorry for the long response
    Save water, drink champagne!
  • Goodbye f2p hello p2w
  • Looks about right. Though 12th node is about 5% for me. GW works very well and is perfectly balanced, don't touch it anymore.
  • tRRRey
    2782 posts Member
    Looks about right. Though 12th node is about 5% for me. GW works very well and is perfectly balanced, don't touch it anymore.

    I don't think they plan on touching it anytime soon
    https://swgoh.gg/u/trey 66/
    Make Zader Great Again!
  • leef wrote: »
    Is there some way to check enemy squad power that i'm not aware of, or did you add each individual character's power to make this post? If so, kudos for putting in the work! actually, kudos either way!
    Tap each character individually and add them all up. It gets tedious and introduces the possibility for input errors that can skew results.
    This doesnt seem that bad to me. Personally i face alot of freebies on node 12, but I'm fairly certain I would win 100% aswell vs a normal node 12. So please don't hold that against me.
    Some people get the Node 12 freebies. Many don't. I assume freebies happen when your Top5 power gets too high for the algorithm to deal with. I got one when I pushed Top5 over 36k, but I don't anymore. Top5 is now over 37k and I still don't get them. Actually, maybe I do. I haven't seen Node 12 in a long time.
    I would also like to note that some reports of players facing squads with 10k power more dont seem to fit in your model. If this model is correct, or atleast close enough to be assumed correct, that would mean some players are being untruthfull about the squads they face, or that EA/CG use different percentages in their matchmaking calculations.
    Agreed, the 10k discrepancy doesn't fit. That doesn't mean it isn't happening. The curve I have posted is, of course, wholly dependent on my GW experience. It doesn't make sense that others would get a different curve, unless something else is also affecting matchmaking. It would be nice if CG would come clean about this.
    Other than that, the percentages dont look that bad, still wondering why so many people are struggling with it. ... if this model is correct the ... "get better toons" etc. arguments seem to be somewhat true.
    This may very well be the case at higher power levels. The problem may be that many people haven't farmed the Arena meta characters by choice because they weren't interested in chasing the meta or taking #1 Arena. But then they hit the meta teams in GW and can't beat them. It may be the only way to get past is to farm the meta. I believe this is what has happened to my progress.
    Furthermore I use strategy; cooldown management, TM management, specific characters vs specific teams, saving good characters for the last nodes, fast retreating when i start of wrong, bringing in healers at the right moment etc etc.
    Lots of other people do this too. Sometimes it just doesn't matter.
    But then agian, should only investing in 5 characters or wrong characters be punished this hard by giving those players a unbeatable GW?
    Please stop with the 5 character argument. Nobody has ever claimed they expect to clear GW with 5 characters. I have 27 7* and 13 L80 with gear IX or greater, with 14 more L70 gear VIII and still can't do it. Rey and Qui-Gon should not be required so completely.

  • I have found Teebo and Ventress to be very helpful in GW.

    Teebo is good against counter teams.

    Ventress is good agains buff teams.

    Stun teams are good too.

    I'm sure you will say you've tried all of that and I believe you.

    However there are lots of portions of the game that require specific toons to be successful. GW should be more endurance based than having the right toons but nothing is perfect.

    I can't do most of the mods challenges or events. However, I can do well in GW.

    I'm working on scoundrels, Empire, resistence, and First Order. I would be glad to only have to go after a couple of toons (like QGJ or Rey) lol.
  • I'm working on scoundrels, Empire, resistence, and First Order. I would be glad to only have to go after a couple of toons (like QGJ or Rey) lol.

    We're going off the rails here, away from the purpose of the topic. This was not intended to be another discussion about how to beat GW. I wanted to share with the forum what I had learned about the GW matchmaking algorithm and the apparent underlying power curve, and I wanted to get it out here before I completely lost interest.
    However ... I am working on Rey and QGJ now precisely because I went after First Order, Rebels, and Empire instead. Yay, I can do mod challenges, but that's not what I need most.
  • leef
    13458 posts Member
    Agreed, the 10k discrepancy doesn't fit. That doesn't mean it isn't happening. The curve I have posted is, of course, wholly dependent on my GW experience. It doesn't make sense that others would get a different curve, unless something else is also affecting matchmaking. It would be nice if CG would come clean about this.
    Yes, that would be awesome. Don't think it will happen though.
    Please stop with the 5 character argument. Nobody has ever claimed they expect to clear GW with 5 characters. I have 27 7* and 13 L80 with gear IX or greater, with 14 more L70 gear VIII and still can't do it. Rey and Qui-Gon should not be required so completely.
    i did specify with "or wrong characters". I assume some people have invested heavily in their arena team alone and have trouble with GW. Just because this isnt the case for you personally doesnt mean it doesnt happen, thats why I added it to my response. In hindsight, i can see how that looks demeaning and implies others are doing something wrong, wich isnt necessarily the case.
    The last part of my response was mainly to explain my (and probably others) way of thinking when it comes to people not being able to clear GW. That includes the part about using strategy, it is one of the possible, and easiest, explainations why others have such a different outcome when it comes to GW. Like i said, both perspectives make alot of sence to me.


    Save water, drink champagne!
  • I'm working on scoundrels, Empire, resistence, and First Order. I would be glad to only have to go after a couple of toons (like QGJ or Rey) lol.

    We're going off the rails here, away from the purpose of the topic. This was not intended to be another discussion about how to beat GW. I wanted to share with the forum what I had learned about the GW matchmaking algorithm and the apparent underlying power curve, and I wanted to get it out here before I completely lost interest.
    However ... I am working on Rey and QGJ now precisely because I went after First Order, Rebels, and Empire instead. Yay, I can do mod challenges, but that's not what I need most.

    Okay. Based off of the percentages though, it seems like it should be doable. I face arena teams that are almost as strong as 12th node and with them, I only get one shot. In GW I can retreat, try different toons, strategies, etc.

    Were you sharing for no other reason than informing the community?

    It seemed that added in your first post that you have essentially given up on GW. Do the statistics on the power curve bolster your desire to give up on it?

    To me they don't. It actually seems pretty doable.

    It also seems like it is important to keep as many toons as possible close to my "top 5" to avoid being in the same predicament as so many other players.

    I am very grateful for your efforts and it inspired to track my own numbers and power curve. They match almost exactly what you shared. However, in my case, it took longer to write down all of the power numbers of the nodes than it did to actually beat even the hardest node. I had maybe two retreats and reworkings of my squad.
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