Drop rates sucking have nothing to do with biases and everything to do with what the developers set those drop rates at.
while i agree with everything the OP states, everything he said is in regards to a state of mind. what i quoted above is still true, regardless of what mindset the player has going into farming gear/shards. in other words, player mentality is separate from what's actually happening. in someone else's famous words: Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you react to it.
EA hasn't made it clear whether they use a random roll for each attempt at simming or if, as they do with GW, use a RNG seed which, if it contains x number of random generated numbers, may repeat the number list if enough turns are attempted in a row. This is the rationale for leaving a node, doing something else, and returning since we simply don't know their method.
At the very least, it may help to ease frustration if you're on a particularly cold streak, to just take a break.
EA hasn't made it clear whether they use a random roll for each attempt at simming or if, as they do with GW, use a RNG seed which, if it contains x number of random generated numbers, may repeat the number list if enough turns are attempted in a row. This is the rationale for leaving a node, doing something else, and returning since we simply don't know their method.
At the very least, it may help to ease frustration if you're on a particularly cold streak, to just take a break.
Edited for typo
^ This.
The system they are using for GW is not 'random' (I mentioned this in another thread). It can create a long enough string to appear random and many devs use this method because, frankly, it's easier than trying to actually create a more random result. Most devs also script flags that are attached to toons based on the actions they take while in the game and those scripts can artificially adjust the series created for random events (i.e., if you play 18 hours a day, you're chance of epic loot drops per minute in xyz game is lower than if you only played 2 hours a day). I don't know if CG/EA has gone this far (though it sometimes feels that way for the reasons Qeltar so eloquently pointed out).
That said, very good post @Qeltar. You clearly did some homework on it and it shows. It also reminded me just how much I would like to see drop rates in many areas of SWGoH adjusted more favorably (or requirements for some things reduced). But, that's because I'd like to have more than a handful of toons to mess around with at some point.
one of the first jobs I had in design was working for a gaming company and RNG systems are typically set to a value (or percentage), the thing that they may or may not have is a guarantee system, where if it has to give a shard every X number of misses.
Drop rates sucking have nothing to do with biases and everything to do with what the developers set those drop rates at.
yep...not sure why this long epistle...
"If the odds of a purple item dropping are 15%" meaning true cost of 1 purple is 40 energy or so...
with upgrades that cost 50 energy or 2000 energy, or a week give or take (excluding refills) you can clearly see it's just an artificial way of obfuscating the lack of content. No apologetics will hide this...
The thread offers no apologetics concerning the drop rate but a well written response to those claiming the system purposely changes to hurt them when they need mats the most or if they refresh. If you want the drop rates increased its an entirely different issue. I would hope they would increase them myself.
+1!
To some, this is a long, useless post.
But to others who appreciates good reads, maths, odds and such, this is a great article, not only game related but applicable in life as well!
Qeltar, you come off as such a defender of this app that I wonder if you're attached to it.
Regarding Daka, I see her revive someone well over 90%. Maybe after a few months of this happening you'll see it isn't just some streak or maybe you will still say it is a streak. Maybe it will go on for a year and you can still say streak. I won't even get into the difference between AI Dooku's Jedi stun and my Dooku's Jedi stun...
As for material/gear drop rates, it does seem quite odd that when you need a single thing that it can take ages to get. I can buy that is not done on purpose though although I can buy it is done on purpose as well.
With character shard rates, I think they are too low. I almost always get a 33% drop on them and feel that could be boosted just a bit.
Just because people who are behind something and stand to gain by claiming something say something doesn't mean it is true. Most people who have been caught doing something generally proclaim their innocence and it is **** to expect the devs to come out and say "yes, we have boosted AI proc rates."
I fail to see why I should trust the devs of this game instead of what I and others see with our own eyes.
Drop rates sucking have nothing to do with biases and everything to do with what the developers set those drop rates at.
yep...not sure why this long epistle...
"If the odds of a purple item dropping are 15%" meaning true cost of 1 purple is 40 energy or so...
with upgrades that cost 50 energy or 2000 energy, or a week give or take (excluding refills) you can clearly see it's just an artificial way of obfuscating the lack of content. No apologetics will hide this...
The thread offers no apologetics concerning the drop rate but a well written response to those claiming the system purposely changes to hurt them when they need mats the most or if they refresh. If you want the drop rates increased its an entirely different issue. I would hope they would increase them myself.
I have never seen such a claim on these forums. Does not mean there were none, but certainly it's not a common occurrence. Which brings me back to the purpose of this OP.
Qeltar, you come off as such a defender of this app that I wonder if you're attached to it.
I'm not terribly surprised that you would say this, considering that about half of your posts consist of griping about drop rates, claiming AI proc rates are stacked, and generally complaining about how CG is out to get us all. What's funny is that your hysterical posts about how AI always procs everything are part of why I started collecting hard data and part of why I wrote this article.
As for me, I get called a "whiner" more than I get called a "fanboi", so once again I have no idea what you are talking about. I criticize CG plenty, probably more than most. At any rate, I am not defending CG here so much as I am defending math and reason.
Regarding Daka, I see her revive someone well over 90%. Maybe after a few months of this happening you'll see it isn't just some streak or maybe you will still say it is a streak. Maybe it will go on for a year and you can still say streak. I won't even get into the difference between AI Dooku's Jedi stun and my Dooku's Jedi stun...
You may think you see this, but I doubt that you do. Because I spent a couple of hours collecting data on the weekend, and what I've seen suggests you are grossly exaggerating. Just as data I collect in other areas suggests you are grossly exaggerating.
My Daka data so far spans 35 fights. In that time I observed a 13% passive revive rate out of 133 trials - a bit high, but not beyond statistical reasonableness. Her active heal revived 32% (14 of 44). This is actually below what she's supposed to be able to do.
I haven't tracked Dooku's stun yet but I did do a short comparison of my Daka to enemy Dakas on stuns. Data so far: my Daka, 65% total stun rate; AI Daka, 61% total stun rate.
Sorry, but I prefer my hard facts over your conjecture, especially given your very biased attitude.
As for material/gear drop rates, it does seem quite odd that when you need a single thing that it can take ages to get. I can buy that is not done on purpose though although I can buy it is done on purpose as well.
This is addressed directly in the article.
As an example, this morning I needed 12 Finn shards to unlock him. I got them in 24 attempts, well above the normal average, including the last 3 in a row. Of course nobody notices that unless they are paying attention to it, but I sure would have noticed if I had gotten 4 out of 24 (statistically as likely as 12 of 24 given the 1/3 drop rate I am pretty confident of for Cantina).
Just because people who are behind something and stand to gain by claiming something say something doesn't mean it is true. Most people who have been caught doing something generally proclaim their innocence and it is **** to expect the devs to come out and say "yes, we have boosted AI proc rates."
I have usually found that in games where developers are tinkering in this manner, they are either evasive when asked about it, or refuse to answer at all. CG has answered directly, and flatly said they are not doing what you are accusing them of.
Could they be lying? Sure, anyone can be lying about anything. But where I come from you don't accuse someone of being a liar without good reason. And I see no good reason here.
--
Thanks to those who have been pointing out that my article actually says nothing about the drop rates themselves. But for those interested: I think they are mostly just fine. Progression (unlocking new chars and leveling them up) is multiples faster in this game than it is in many others I have played. My only complaint about drops would be for hard missions, and there, I don't think the drop rate is the problem so much as the limitation of 3 per day. This is artificial and makes it take weeks to unlock and promote certain characters, unnecessarily limiting build diversity unless you pay $3000+ for chromium packs. I would prefer, at a minimum, to see that 3 changed to 5 or 6.
And now for a moment of real irony, right after writing this, I did my "daily Dooku" and got 5 shards in 6 tries, which I have never done before. RNG, ya gotta love it.
Why don't you guys try to make your game more fun and rewarding instead of your broken **** mindless grind. Maybe instead of justifying your " randomness" in the game, why don't you spend this time balancing your game.
Thanks for the post, very interesting and I appreciate the time involved in presenting the facts. Know I know why it'll be summer before I unlock Rey ;-)
This is a great post. I was already aware of all of it, as this is s topic I Love, but it's great to have all of it in a briefing, so we can link to it when somebody comes with a conspiracy theory about how the drop este has changed or is different for some particular behaviour
Good read. I wonder simply if people would be much less salty if they removed statistical odds in the character power descriptors. If, for example, Phasma's ability simply read "This hero has a chance to call in a random ally assist," people would be less upset.
You are a true internet hero, @Qeltar . Good threads like this one are very scarce and definitely not randomly generated.
One thing I have to remark: you actually had a day where you hit 3x 3/3? Wow, I'm self-aware on this matter and actually keeping track constantly, but I've only had 3/3 happen once a day at max. Both times were Rey, mysteriously. But that only adds to the random numbers part, I guess.
Proud and Belgian officer of [DTA] BIER DTA | official Lando Calrissian fanboy KappaPride
The problem is we are playing a RNG lotto where we have no idea the odds. The lotto, at least you know you have a 1 in 256 million chance to win. This is just hoping for the best. If each node would show odds it would help us humans quantify what is going on. With just simply a lotto of "give me your energy and I'll let you know if you won" we have no idea if we even had a chance. If I knew that at node 4b hard I had a 35% chance to get the gear piece or shard I needed but at 6c hard I had a 50% chance, I would be able to make a little more of an informed decision. The current system combines RNG without odds of success so to our human brains, we jump to conclusions to rationalize how we spent 240 energy to get 1 shard but get snubbed 23 of 24 times. While RNGs could be 50/50 for all we know and we just got unlucky, without seeing odds we think that the games must be rigged and is only trying to bait us into spending real money on crystals to buy energy to get that shard we want. It's a terrible mix of basic OCD that every human has along with a blind chance at success. The current system is much like the old fish pond game you played as a kid at local festivals. You pay your ticket and throw your line over the wall. The person on the other side of the wall just gives you toy, a good one or a junk one, all random. Same think is going on with this game in it's current state.
Drop rates sucking have nothing to do with biases and everything to do with what the developers set those drop rates at.
yep...not sure why this long epistle...
"If the odds of a purple item dropping are 15%" meaning true cost of 1 purple is 40 energy or so...
with upgrades that cost 50 energy or 2000 energy, or a week give or take (excluding refills) you can clearly see it's just an artificial way of obfuscating the lack of content. No apologetics will hide this...
But... As you have stated, randomness experience is hard to deal with for human minds. Besides, after all, this is a game where those humans spend their time (and their money!)
From a development point of view things are perfect, but this approach can lead to a user experience problem and it could end in a profit loss. Jus think of the frustration of a bad run compared to the happiness of a good one. The former can make a user stop playing (or spending) while the later is quite ephemeral.
I am not sure, but maybe a not pure random alternative that guarantees a desired distribution can perform better in terms of user experience.
Every time I read this article, the words are the same. I think it's rigged to be non-random! ...or maybe I can only read it when the words make sense, so it's confirmation bias. I'll try reading another thread to reset my odds, then come back to see if it changes. Certainly it's due to change by now anyway.
Thanks for the great stats review!
My ally code: 296-673-769. Wish we could have more than 35.
I want to know what the odds are of an enemy Phasma team ALL proccing an extra attack, with two enemies proccing a double attack. And then the odds of that happening multiple times. Because that happens constantly against me, and is infuriating, lol.
Qeltar, are you a pshrink by chance? Your post took me back to psychology classes in college. I'd completely forgotten so many of the terms you used. Thanks for an unexpected trip down memory lane.
With all of this said, i do have a follow up question. Is it possible to provide an option take the RNG outfor players who feel frustrated. Few ways to do that come to mind. (For the sake of example, i will assume 1/4 drop rate)
Scenario 1: create a mode that changes drops to fractions. So instead of having 1/4 rate to get a purple item, you get a 0.25 of an item. After 4 runs, it becomes a full item. No mystery
Scenario 2: (this scenario changes the probability outcome & probably harder to implement): havevthe game keep track and guarantee certain minimal drop rate. So if it's 1/4, the game could guarantee say 1/6 drop rate, so if u had a coldstreak of 5 pulls, next one guarantees success. That would require storing data on orevious pulls so unlikely
Scenario 3 (similar to 1) - offer a "full pull" button. So if your pull chance is1/4, that button will cost 4x energy but guarantee the pull. It could be placed when opening the popup menu by clicking on tge rewards icons, & only guarantee the pull of the one u clicked on, while acting as regular run for all else.
Obviously, some of these scenarios would require the devs sharing the drop rates. 1 & 3 shouldnt change the gameplay much, but woild certainly offer sn option to not test your luck when you are in the middle of those coldstreaks that we all love so much
The problem is we are playing a RNG lotto where we have no idea the odds. The lotto, at least you know you have a 1 in 256 million chance to win. This is just hoping for the best. If each node would show odds it would help us humans quantify what is going on. With just simply a lotto of "give me your energy and I'll let you know if you won" we have no idea if we even had a chance. If I knew that at node 4b hard I had a 35% chance to get the gear piece or shard I needed but at 6c hard I had a 50% chance, I would be able to make a little more of an informed decision. The current system combines RNG without odds of success so to our human brains, we jump to conclusions to rationalize how we spent 240 energy to get 1 shard but get snubbed 23 of 24 times. While RNGs could be 50/50 for all we know and we just got unlucky, without seeing odds we think that the games must be rigged and is only trying to bait us into spending real money on crystals to buy energy to get that shard we want. It's a terrible mix of basic OCD that every human has along with a blind chance at success. The current system is much like the old fish pond game you played as a kid at local festivals. You pay your ticket and throw your line over the wall. The person on the other side of the wall just gives you toy, a good one or a junk one, all random. Same think is going on with this game in it's current state.
This is a huge post. It's impossible to know hiw much anything costs, and what is normal, unless we know the odds. There are more than 2000 item at different locations.
We also cannot check in any way if prices change. CG has not said odds will change, or nit change. Or that any change in odds tlwould be ever communicated
So people using money to get gear - in spite of all the math - are playing against a system masks true actual costs, and future change. After all, if you experience a certain drop, bad luck is indistinguishable from low drop rates, as drop rates are unkown.
The current sustemnis a belief syatem. We believe CG will give something, and when it's something else entirely, we procastinate - and there's no way to know if it's just bad luck, or the worst investement ever.
Is like buying from amazon, and being informed of the price right after the return window expires.
Replies
while i agree with everything the OP states, everything he said is in regards to a state of mind. what i quoted above is still true, regardless of what mindset the player has going into farming gear/shards. in other words, player mentality is separate from what's actually happening. in someone else's famous words: Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you react to it.
Don't know why people are ranting about his post. He's not supporting the Developer criteria for drop rates. He's just explaining how gambling works
At the very least, it may help to ease frustration if you're on a particularly cold streak, to just take a break.
Edited for typo
^ This.
The system they are using for GW is not 'random' (I mentioned this in another thread). It can create a long enough string to appear random and many devs use this method because, frankly, it's easier than trying to actually create a more random result. Most devs also script flags that are attached to toons based on the actions they take while in the game and those scripts can artificially adjust the series created for random events (i.e., if you play 18 hours a day, you're chance of epic loot drops per minute in xyz game is lower than if you only played 2 hours a day). I don't know if CG/EA has gone this far (though it sometimes feels that way for the reasons Qeltar so eloquently pointed out).
That said, very good post @Qeltar. You clearly did some homework on it and it shows. It also reminded me just how much I would like to see drop rates in many areas of SWGoH adjusted more favorably (or requirements for some things reduced). But, that's because I'd like to have more than a handful of toons to mess around with at some point.
one of the first jobs I had in design was working for a gaming company and RNG systems are typically set to a value (or percentage), the thing that they may or may not have is a guarantee system, where if it has to give a shard every X number of misses.
+1!
To some, this is a long, useless post.
But to others who appreciates good reads, maths, odds and such, this is a great article, not only game related but applicable in life as well!
Bottom line, great job @Qeltar !
Much respect.
Regarding Daka, I see her revive someone well over 90%. Maybe after a few months of this happening you'll see it isn't just some streak or maybe you will still say it is a streak. Maybe it will go on for a year and you can still say streak. I won't even get into the difference between AI Dooku's Jedi stun and my Dooku's Jedi stun...
As for material/gear drop rates, it does seem quite odd that when you need a single thing that it can take ages to get. I can buy that is not done on purpose though although I can buy it is done on purpose as well.
With character shard rates, I think they are too low. I almost always get a 33% drop on them and feel that could be boosted just a bit.
Just because people who are behind something and stand to gain by claiming something say something doesn't mean it is true. Most people who have been caught doing something generally proclaim their innocence and it is **** to expect the devs to come out and say "yes, we have boosted AI proc rates."
I fail to see why I should trust the devs of this game instead of what I and others see with our own eyes.
I have never seen such a claim on these forums. Does not mean there were none, but certainly it's not a common occurrence. Which brings me back to the purpose of this OP.
As for me, I get called a "whiner" more than I get called a "fanboi", so once again I have no idea what you are talking about. I criticize CG plenty, probably more than most. At any rate, I am not defending CG here so much as I am defending math and reason.
You may think you see this, but I doubt that you do. Because I spent a couple of hours collecting data on the weekend, and what I've seen suggests you are grossly exaggerating. Just as data I collect in other areas suggests you are grossly exaggerating.
My Daka data so far spans 35 fights. In that time I observed a 13% passive revive rate out of 133 trials - a bit high, but not beyond statistical reasonableness. Her active heal revived 32% (14 of 44). This is actually below what she's supposed to be able to do.
I haven't tracked Dooku's stun yet but I did do a short comparison of my Daka to enemy Dakas on stuns. Data so far: my Daka, 65% total stun rate; AI Daka, 61% total stun rate.
Sorry, but I prefer my hard facts over your conjecture, especially given your very biased attitude.
This is addressed directly in the article.
As an example, this morning I needed 12 Finn shards to unlock him. I got them in 24 attempts, well above the normal average, including the last 3 in a row. Of course nobody notices that unless they are paying attention to it, but I sure would have noticed if I had gotten 4 out of 24 (statistically as likely as 12 of 24 given the 1/3 drop rate I am pretty confident of for Cantina).
I have usually found that in games where developers are tinkering in this manner, they are either evasive when asked about it, or refuse to answer at all. CG has answered directly, and flatly said they are not doing what you are accusing them of.
Could they be lying? Sure, anyone can be lying about anything. But where I come from you don't accuse someone of being a liar without good reason. And I see no good reason here.
--
Thanks to those who have been pointing out that my article actually says nothing about the drop rates themselves. But for those interested: I think they are mostly just fine. Progression (unlocking new chars and leveling them up) is multiples faster in this game than it is in many others I have played. My only complaint about drops would be for hard missions, and there, I don't think the drop rate is the problem so much as the limitation of 3 per day. This is artificial and makes it take weeks to unlock and promote certain characters, unnecessarily limiting build diversity unless you pay $3000+ for chromium packs. I would prefer, at a minimum, to see that 3 changed to 5 or 6.
And now for a moment of real irony, right after writing this, I did my "daily Dooku" and got 5 shards in 6 tries, which I have never done before. RNG, ya gotta love it.
One thing I have to remark: you actually had a day where you hit 3x 3/3? Wow, I'm self-aware on this matter and actually keeping track constantly, but I've only had 3/3 happen once a day at max. Both times were Rey, mysteriously. But that only adds to the random numbers part, I guess.
Have to log in just to raise thump up!!!!!! This is so refresh reading. Thank you sir.
Btw, i guess most of you are requesting a guaranteed system behind the random cold streak.
And I think the devs are working on it
P.s: that triangle smilies is random.
Bingo.
But... As you have stated, randomness experience is hard to deal with for human minds. Besides, after all, this is a game where those humans spend their time (and their money!)
From a development point of view things are perfect, but this approach can lead to a user experience problem and it could end in a profit loss. Jus think of the frustration of a bad run compared to the happiness of a good one. The former can make a user stop playing (or spending) while the later is quite ephemeral.
I am not sure, but maybe a not pure random alternative that guarantees a desired distribution can perform better in terms of user experience.
Thanks for the great stats review!
Scenario 1: create a mode that changes drops to fractions. So instead of having 1/4 rate to get a purple item, you get a 0.25 of an item. After 4 runs, it becomes a full item. No mystery
Scenario 2: (this scenario changes the probability outcome & probably harder to implement): havevthe game keep track and guarantee certain minimal drop rate. So if it's 1/4, the game could guarantee say 1/6 drop rate, so if u had a coldstreak of 5 pulls, next one guarantees success. That would require storing data on orevious pulls so unlikely
Scenario 3 (similar to 1) - offer a "full pull" button. So if your pull chance is1/4, that button will cost 4x energy but guarantee the pull. It could be placed when opening the popup menu by clicking on tge rewards icons, & only guarantee the pull of the one u clicked on, while acting as regular run for all else.
Obviously, some of these scenarios would require the devs sharing the drop rates. 1 & 3 shouldnt change the gameplay much, but woild certainly offer sn option to not test your luck when you are in the middle of those coldstreaks that we all love so much
Funny how some people just think rage and lashing out can just replace a logical rebuttal...
Imagine being an new order imp officer having to explain to Kylo Ren why he got no shards today.
This is a huge post. It's impossible to know hiw much anything costs, and what is normal, unless we know the odds. There are more than 2000 item at different locations.
We also cannot check in any way if prices change. CG has not said odds will change, or nit change. Or that any change in odds tlwould be ever communicated
So people using money to get gear - in spite of all the math - are playing against a system masks true actual costs, and future change. After all, if you experience a certain drop, bad luck is indistinguishable from low drop rates, as drop rates are unkown.
The current sustemnis a belief syatem. We believe CG will give something, and when it's something else entirely, we procastinate - and there's no way to know if it's just bad luck, or the worst investement ever.
Is like buying from amazon, and being informed of the price right after the return window expires.