Wow, you must feel so smart now. My question is clearly if something changed in the RNG setup. In a casino you can set slot machines to pay out as much as you want, have they equivalently changed the payout here?
Yes after 18 months of this game they secretly changed the droprates without us knowing, except for me ofcourse.
You are the 500th topicstarter with this question so you won the game!
They said they would decrease dropchance with the 500th topic.
We all feel smart here on a sidenote.
439-259-888 I have a bad habit of editing my typo's after posting
Wow, you must feel so smart now. My question is clearly if something changed in the RNG setup. In a casino you can set slot machines to pay out as much as you want, have they equivalently changed the payout here?
I love it when people spin 20 times notice there's a decrease and think they something must've changed.
If you've used 10,000 energy and tracked it since the update then you might have a case. Otherwise you're just an old man yelling at a cloud.
Wow, you must feel so smart now. My question is clearly if something changed in the RNG setup. In a casino you can set slot machines to pay out as much as you want, have they equivalently changed the payout here?
I love it when people spin 20 times notice there's a decrease and think they something must've changed.
If you've used 10,000 energy and tracked it since the update then you might have a case. Otherwise you're just an old man yelling at a cloud.
Well law of large numbers just requires 30 data points. My sample size was about 300 (30x 10 days) about 3000 in energy and verfied that, so what's your opinion on the cloud now?
Ok... I love a good RNG is killing me thread as much as the next person. The only argument worse than "for the last 3 weeks RNG has been" is "all my guild mates agree with me". I don't even want to get into the problem with these arguments.
This comment is the one that takes all laws of statistics and throws it in the trash. How did you determine 30 as proper sample size? Let's assume that you are trying to assess if the RNG has been changed. You would need to understand what it was before and after.
Using basic Bayesian Approach to establish a baseline on something as simple as a cointoss it would take 1500 data points to give you a 3% margin on average. Then you would have to repeat the analysis at different times to establish if there was any variation.
That is all if the calculation was on something so basic as a coin toss. I assume a RNG generator of something more complex than a 50/50 base is being used. In which case these numbers increase significantly.
So.....did the developers change the RNG? Who knows. But my guess is most likely not as the only calculation more complex than if the RNG was changed is trying to predict what a change would have on the overall profitability of the game.
But the one thing I know for sure is your 30 or 300 sample size gets you nothing but frustration and even if you did go to the required number would only set a baseline at that time. Then you would have to rinse and repeat to get a variation.
Here is a good basic statistics lesson you may want to review and understand before throwing out completely crazy numbers. Please keep in mind the problem you are trying to solve which is "Am I experiencing a different RNG than before?"
I debate on quitting probably every other day but haven't yet. If the new toons completely trounce the just released sith, that'll be the nail though. don't want to spend time or money on that type of gaming model.
Do a search. Actual facts turn up. Drop rates haven't changed since launch - and there are people (and entire guilds) that have quite literally tracked thousands of drops and recorded hard data for weeks - not the anecdotal tripe some are posting in this thread. This has been done at many points in the game's history - and they all come up with the same drop rates, showing not only that drop rates are consistent - but have been that way since the game started.
TL;DR: No they haven't changed the drop rates. Ever. But feel free to believe (this time/just for you/as you get closer/whatever tinfoil hat conspiracy you think of) is true instead of extensive data supported facts.
In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie
In game guild: TNR Uprising I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
There's no way anyone could know that a drop rate has been nerfed without carefully looking at the drop rates of literally hundreds of people. You should expect one person's experience to vary significantly with constant drop rates, precisely because drop rates are a likelihood. If it's a 20 drop rate, then each mission has a 20% chance of dropping that item. You should expect some runs of five missions to give five drops, some to give none, but you will likely get around one per five missions over a long run of many missions, and you can't test it with one person's experience in a week. People who have done those long-term studies have given drop rates that have been constant since the game has started, at least for most things. When the DEVs do change drop rates, they have told us, even if it's unpopular, as in the mod drop rate change about a week or two into mods. They're not constantly changing drop rates just because your small sample of drops is giving you different amounts than the last few small samples of drops had.
The rates fluctuate, but over time they even out. Some days I can spend all my energy in Cantina and get nothing; other days, I'll get 7 out of 10. Over time, it seems pretty consistent to be about 1/3 for most cantina nodes and low-level gear. Higher level stuff, maybe 1/4. But no big change I've noticed.
The worst thing you can do is to use anecdotal evidence (especially with a limited sample size) to ascertain a numerical variable that is a mystery beyond developers.
The worst thing you can do is to use anecdotal evidence (especially with a limited sample size) to ascertain numerical variable that is a mystery beyond developers.
And yet, people do it over and over and over...
In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie
In game guild: TNR Uprising I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
The worst thing you can do is to use anecdotal evidence (especially with a limited sample size) to ascertain numerical variable that is a mystery beyond developers.
And yet, people do it over and over and over...
If it happens to X person, and it can be replicated, even if it's purely by chance (or selective interpretation of the data), and supported by confirmation bias - then it must be true!
The worst thing you can do is to use anecdotal evidence (especially with a limited sample size) to ascertain numerical variable that is a mystery beyond developers.
And yet, people do it over and over and over...
If it happens to X person, and it can be replicated, even if it's purely by chance (or selective interpretation of the data), and supported by confirmation bias - then it must be true!
In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie
In game guild: TNR Uprising I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
It's all RNG, perception and confirmation bias. I have over 100 days of cantina farming tracked which is about 3400 battles (working on a post to share) and there is no statistical evidence that I have found that drop rates either have changed or vary between nodes. You're daily perception will change based on luck, but the overall average will be constant.
For the cantina, the average drop rate is 0.33, but the standard deviation on the daily drop rate (#shards / #battles per day) is about 0.085. Which means that a drop rate of 0.16 (or 16%) still occurs with two standard deviations of the mean. So, it is entirely likely to have a few bad days and those days color your perception of reality
See the thing about randomness is that you could get zero drops for the next year and it could still be the same random drop rate and just have bad luck. There is no constant amount you must get for it to retain the same randomness since it's completely random! Please don't use the, "my guild agrees with me" argument. If one person says it in the group, everyone is going to think about their last drop and go, "Yeah, I had a bad drop, you must be right!". This is an argument by inception. This post comes up everyday and is always finished by the numbers. There have been huge sample sizes done by huge guilds that were actually looking for variant drop rates, but found that on average, the drop rates have remained constant. End of post, drops rates haven't changed. You're welcome.
Wow, you must feel so smart now. My question is clearly if something changed in the RNG setup. In a casino you can set slot machines to pay out as much as you want, have they equivalently changed the payout here?
I've been in the Casino Gaming industry for 17 years and that's not true either. The hold % / payback % is a mean score based on around 1M handle pulls and there's a pretty severe standard deviation (more in some games, less in others). Actual versus theoretical hold is probably close after 12-months or so but for an individual player it can range from 150% payback to -100% loss (as an example). Even the biggest players may only see a couple thousand handle pulls at best which is still very volatile.
I would imagine that the volatility in mod, gear, and shard drop rates is very similar which is why you see some extreme differences every time you SIM a challenge. Even if the mean is a 50% drop rate for example, there's some Std Dev that can make that within some range of more or less than the mean drop rate.
Wow, you must feel so smart now. My question is clearly if something changed in the RNG setup. In a casino you can set slot machines to pay out as much as you want, have they equivalently changed the payout here?
I've been in the Casino Gaming industry for 17 years and that's not true either. The hold % / payback % is a mean score based on around 1M handle pulls and there's a pretty severe standard deviation (more in some games, less in others). Actual versus theoretical hold is probably close after 12-months or so but for an individual player it can range from 150% payback to -100% loss (as an example). Even the biggest players may only see a couple thousand handle pulls at best which is still very volatile.
I would imagine that the volatility in mod, gear, and shard drop rates is very similar which is why you see some extreme differences every time you SIM a challenge. Even if the mean is a 50% drop rate for example, there's some Std Dev that can make that within some range of more or less than the mean drop rate.
This,
It all has to do with the Std Dev of the Gaussian model they use. it's just the PDF(probability density function) of random processes.
Wow, you must feel so smart now. My question is clearly if something changed in the RNG setup. In a casino you can set slot machines to pay out as much as you want, have they equivalently changed the payout here?
No they haven't, it's always the same. If they had done anything, they would've told us
just like they told us 4 days after making gw impossible?
Replies
Yes after 18 months of this game they secretly changed the droprates without us knowing, except for me ofcourse.
You are the 500th topicstarter with this question so you won the game!
They said they would decrease dropchance with the 500th topic.
We all feel smart here on a sidenote.
Ok... I love a good RNG is killing me thread as much as the next person. The only argument worse than "for the last 3 weeks RNG has been" is "all my guild mates agree with me". I don't even want to get into the problem with these arguments.
This comment is the one that takes all laws of statistics and throws it in the trash. How did you determine 30 as proper sample size? Let's assume that you are trying to assess if the RNG has been changed. You would need to understand what it was before and after.
Using basic Bayesian Approach to establish a baseline on something as simple as a cointoss it would take 1500 data points to give you a 3% margin on average. Then you would have to repeat the analysis at different times to establish if there was any variation.
That is all if the calculation was on something so basic as a coin toss. I assume a RNG generator of something more complex than a 50/50 base is being used. In which case these numbers increase significantly.
So.....did the developers change the RNG? Who knows. But my guess is most likely not as the only calculation more complex than if the RNG was changed is trying to predict what a change would have on the overall profitability of the game.
But the one thing I know for sure is your 30 or 300 sample size gets you nothing but frustration and even if you did go to the required number would only set a baseline at that time. Then you would have to rinse and repeat to get a variation.
http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~s133/Random1.html
Here is a good basic statistics lesson you may want to review and understand before throwing out completely crazy numbers. Please keep in mind the problem you are trying to solve which is "Am I experiencing a different RNG than before?"
xD
This
Do a search. Actual facts turn up. Drop rates haven't changed since launch - and there are people (and entire guilds) that have quite literally tracked thousands of drops and recorded hard data for weeks - not the anecdotal tripe some are posting in this thread. This has been done at many points in the game's history - and they all come up with the same drop rates, showing not only that drop rates are consistent - but have been that way since the game started.
TL;DR: No they haven't changed the drop rates. Ever. But feel free to believe (this time/just for you/as you get closer/whatever tinfoil hat conspiracy you think of) is true instead of extensive data supported facts.
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
RNG is a huge part of this game. you don't like RNG, don't play the game.
do please stop complaining and acting like a d bag though.
The worst thing you can do is to use anecdotal evidence (especially with a limited sample size) to ascertain a numerical variable that is a mystery beyond developers.
And yet, people do it over and over and over...
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
If it happens to X person, and it can be replicated, even if it's purely by chance (or selective interpretation of the data), and supported by confirmation bias - then it must be true!
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
For the cantina, the average drop rate is 0.33, but the standard deviation on the daily drop rate (#shards / #battles per day) is about 0.085. Which means that a drop rate of 0.16 (or 16%) still occurs with two standard deviations of the mean. So, it is entirely likely to have a few bad days and those days color your perception of reality
DarthBarron (Kevin, aka KevWalker)
I've been in the Casino Gaming industry for 17 years and that's not true either. The hold % / payback % is a mean score based on around 1M handle pulls and there's a pretty severe standard deviation (more in some games, less in others). Actual versus theoretical hold is probably close after 12-months or so but for an individual player it can range from 150% payback to -100% loss (as an example). Even the biggest players may only see a couple thousand handle pulls at best which is still very volatile.
I would imagine that the volatility in mod, gear, and shard drop rates is very similar which is why you see some extreme differences every time you SIM a challenge. Even if the mean is a 50% drop rate for example, there's some Std Dev that can make that within some range of more or less than the mean drop rate.
This,
It all has to do with the Std Dev of the Gaussian model they use. it's just the PDF(probability density function) of random processes.
just like they told us 4 days after making gw impossible?
Now it's 0/5.
Why is it different now? Must be rng...