Yeah, why are so many people attributing those words to Doja?
Because he linked it? Are suggesting he linked it but didn't read it?
Yes?
So you're going with Hanlon's Razor on this one?
But then that razor cuts both ways...
The article said “assuming a 4% drop rate”, and the use of the word “assuming” immediately flagged to me that this was not an official statement. Many others didn’t read it as carefully, it would seem.
So, yes, Doja should have had more sense than to link an article that gave detailed farming calculations based on a false assumption. Because he should have known that a section of the people reading the article would jump to a conclusion.
For clarity, the word “assuming” made me sceptical about 4% drop rates, but I still hoped that’s what they would be. When it became clear that the drop rates were not 4% I was as disappointed as anyone, and I do think Doja should either not have linked the swgoh events page, or posted a disclaimer (even then, some would have glossed over that)
It was crumb who linked to it in the official post.
Yeah, why are so many people attributing those words to Doja?
Because he linked it? Are suggesting he linked it but didn't read it?
Yes?
So you're going with Hanlon's Razor on this one?
But then that razor cuts both ways...
The article said “assuming a 4% drop rate”, and the use of the word “assuming” immediately flagged to me that this was not an official statement. Many others didn’t read it as carefully, it would seem.
So, yes, Doja should have had more sense than to link an article that gave detailed farming calculations based on a false assumption. Because he should have known that a section of the people reading the article would jump to a conclusion.
For clarity, the word “assuming” made me sceptical about 4% drop rates, but I still hoped that’s what they would be. When it became clear that the drop rates were not 4% I was as disappointed as anyone, and I do think Doja should either not have linked the swgoh events page, or posted a disclaimer (even then, some would have glossed over that)
It was crumb who linked to it in the official post.
You are correct. Early on, I think I said that it was Doja - but he only posted in the announcement thread. Crumb actually posted the links. But again, to be clear, neither one of them is to blame. Someone higher up in CG, who knew full well that the drop rate and the refresh estimations in the write up were flat out wrong, approved Crumb linking it. That's my issue.
In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie
In game guild: TNR Uprising I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
It would be nice to have an official response from CG. At this point I'm over the anger and just disappointed, especially with Kyno's response. To say that the whole thing was anything but misleading seems to be ignoring reality and bending over backwards to defend CG. The simple truth is either provide the information yourself, or, if you are referring us to a 3rd party for the information, make sure that it is accurate. Any other business would do the same.
But then they did the silent nerf to 2% per energy for the Y-wing chase. So the droprate changes.
Yep. Although there was a specific justification for that: Fleet energy accumulation rates had doubled.
This "Chase" is using Cantina Energy, so it would still be at 4% per energy if using the old rules.
Ironically, I am in the opposite situation from many. If I had known we would go through the whole 3 weeks without finishing either toon, I would have stockpiled Cantina energy over previous days.
However, since the evidence (and the dev-linked post) seemed to indicate that 2 refills per day would be sufficient to get the characters, and since we have up to 3 refills per day at the base crystal cost, there was no reason for me to pre-load energy and miss out on daily accumulation which could be used for signal data (but not Kuill/IG-11) in the days before the event.
But even at the reduced rate of 1% per character per point of energy that seems to be the norm for this event,
1% of 120 energy = 1.2
for 2 characters, that's 2.4 shards per toon.
100 crystals/ 2.4 shards = 41.6667 crystals per shard. This is about half the cost of buying these shards from shipments.
Also, if you are farming these on a hard node, 120 energy = 2 shards, but you need a 25 crystal node refresh to get the full use, so...
If you're using 1 node refresh... 2 shards per 75 crystals = 37.5 crystals per shard
If you're farming fast, your farming after your 2nd refresh gives you these stats: 2 shards per 100 crystals = 50 crystals per shard
This cost is worse than, but fairly comparable to, farming a hard node with one node refresh. It is better than farming through a 2nd node refresh, though still in that "comparable" ballpark.
So there it is: we got bad communication, but the risk/reward is the same as or similar to hard node farming where you're using crystal-purchased energy and at least 2 node refresh. Because of this, I would have wanted to stockpile energy and did not get that chance. I'm actually jealous of the stockpilers who made a bad decision based on the information we had, but that decision turned out to be the best one possible.
For people who wonder about the wisdom of spending any crystals, you can, of course, use only accumulated energy and no node refreshes. This makes those shards free, but means the character will take a long time to farm.
Ultimately, then, the questions you have to ask yourself going forward are these:
Am I the type of person who would be willing to refresh energy and nodes to get get Kuiil & IG-11 twice as fast? Would I be willing to spend twice a day to get the characters three times as fast?
If you're willing to spend on these characters at all, then spending on them here still makes sense - it's in between the cost of 1 node refresh per day and 2 node refreshes per day, but closer to the cheaper cost.
If you weren't willing to spend any hard-node refreshes at all on these, then you shouldn't spend on Cantina energy during this event. (At least not for pursuing these characters. You should only refresh when you have a different reason to do so.)
This event doesn't turn out to be a great limited time offer. It's a limited time offer that's about the same as the long-term offer you would have gotten by them going straight to a hard node. The only difference is that if you're someone who finds spending on these toons worthwhile, then you can get more attempts per day at the same cost through cantina energy refreshes (360 energy for 300 crystals = 7.2 shards/day vs. only 1.6 or 3.3 shards/day using the hard node refresh).
The cost is not reduced at all with this chase-style release. What is reduced is the time to finish - you make 4.4 or 2.2 days worth of progress for every single day of this chase.
With 21 days of the event, we can make 151 extra shards above free farming, or 75 for each character. Add back in free farming and...
... you get the toons finished 45 days earlier than free farming only, 22.5 days earlier than one-node refresh/day, and 15 days earlier than 2 node refreshes per day.
This isn't a great gift, but it's still of benefit to people. Spending the crystals is still (barely) worth it.
So, y'know, I stand with all the people who think CG did a bad thing by linking to an article that used wrong assumptions, thus giving it a stamp of approval it had not earned, but for those simply wondering what the drop rates are and whether it's worth spending crystals with the drop rates so low, there's your answer. ...
Good analysis. I'll just add that getting whatever other cantina farm or signal data farm done much sooner in addition to thos pretty much make the 100 crystal refreshes worth it regardless of whether you are in a hurry to farm ig11 or kuiil.
Assuming you aren't permanently skipping them or planning to wait a year until they are accelerated characters.
By the way ive been spending 700 a day in crystals on cantina and get 5 shards each if im lucky ill be able to get a 100 shards by the time this event is over. I feel said for the people that only can spend 300 a day on it
Not sure where you've heard they are 2% from. I've tracked every shard and energy I've gotten and I'm at a .87% drop rate (over 1500 energy spent) each. This is a large enough sample to say that it's not 2%. I'd say it's at 1% per energy and I've just had a little less than average RNG for it.
What bothers me is that CG posted an article as their "preview of Beskar Mando" in which they do some math assuming a 4% drop rate. I understand this wasn't written by them, but it was promoted by CG. To have a 1% per energy drop rate is just crumby way of getting people to buy crystals anticipating a decent benefit from the creators, when in actuality, it's an inefficient use of money and crystals. That's my personal frustration though, I don't expect all to agree - but I don't think they should have promoted an article discussing a 4% drop rate.
Not sure where you've heard they are 2% from. I've tracked every shard and energy I've gotten and I'm at a .87% drop rate (over 1500 energy spent) each. This is a large enough sample to say that it's not 2%. I'd say it's at 1% per energy and I've just had a little less than average RNG for it.
You're misunderstanding what people are saying. If you read carefully, people are saying that there's a 2% chance of getting some kind of shard, which means, if the two toons drop equally often, that they each have a 1% drop rate.
Your estimate of 1% each is exactly what everyone else is saying. And everyone else got it from the same place you did. We're not bad at math, you're just misunderstanding what people are trying to say.
My drop rates are decent. I nearly got a 4* Kuill with NO refreshes
My stamina, my sense of humor, and my fashion sense are all decent.
I too nearly got a 4* Kuiil, but I, however, am doing THREE refreshes a day. It was either use my crystals saved up or quit playing altogether. But the sunk cost fallacy is a cognitive bias for a reason, and quite hard to break.
For now, the rancor challenge raid, the assumption of galactic chase percentages as drop rates without statement to the contrary, and the use of a newly released toon in galactic challenges will all, I hope, wear away at my silly, misguided brain. I'll have some time to think over the next two weeks.
It would be nice to have an official response from CG. At this point I'm over the anger and just disappointed, especially with Kyno's response. To say that the whole thing was anything but misleading seems to be ignoring reality and bending over backwards to defend CG. The simple truth is either provide the information yourself, or, if you are referring us to a 3rd party for the information, make sure that it is accurate. Any other business would do the same.
THIS.
There are only two possibilities I can see here:
CG didn't bother to read the post that they officially referred to and implicitly endorsed. Any business that did this would be considered careless, irresponsible, and potentially liable.
CG did read the post that they endorsed, knew that the information in it was inaccurate, and consciously decided to let us all be mislead. Any business that did this would be considered malicious, dishonest, and very likely liable.
Whichever turns out to be true, CG doesn't come out of this well. And they simply do not care.
To clear up any potential confusion surrounding drop rates for IG-11 and Kuiil, the drop rate scales based on the cost of a node. This means the overall drop rate for shards is even across the nodes and you can farm these shards from 6 energy nodes or 20 energy nodes at the same efficiency.
The SWGOH Events article we linked to explains this mechanic clearly. We usually don't share drop rates for events. Anything about drop rates on SWGOH events is speculative and likely based on their estimations.
To clear up any potential confusion surrounding drop rates for IG-11 and Kuiil, the drop rate scales based on the cost of a node. This means the overall drop rate for shards is even across the nodes and you can farm these shards from 6 energy nodes or 20 energy nodes at the same efficiency.
The SWGOH Events article we linked to explains this mechanic clearly. We usually don't share drop rates for events. Anything about drop rates on SWGOH events is speculative and likely based on their estimations.
Then why link to a site that states information you know is false. I rarely have issues with this game or company but the way you have rolled out the event with requiring a gated toon for GC without notice or precedent and then misleading players on drop rates rather it was intended or oversight is absolutely damaging to your brand and image. I still love the game, but absolutely hate what you guys did here and I'm not one who easily forgets. While the game will go on, as it should, it will be without my support.
To clear up any potential confusion surrounding drop rates for IG-11 and Kuiil, the drop rate scales based on the cost of a node. This means the overall drop rate for shards is even across the nodes and you can farm these shards from 6 energy nodes or 20 energy nodes at the same efficiency.
The SWGOH Events article we linked to explains this mechanic clearly. We usually don't share drop rates for events. Anything about drop rates on SWGOH events is speculative and likely based on their estimations.
Then why link to a site that states information you know is false. I rarely have issues with this game or company but the way you have rolled out the event with requiring a gated toon for GC without notice or precedent and then misleading players on drop rates rather it was intended or oversight is absolutely damaging to your brand and image. I still love the game, but absolutely hate what you guys did here and I'm not one who easily forgets. While the game will go on, as it should, it will be without my support.
The website never said what the drop rates for additive drops are. They were conveying how player friendly additive drops are, compared to toons going straight to hard node farms
To clear up any potential confusion surrounding drop rates for IG-11 and Kuiil, the drop rate scales based on the cost of a node. This means the overall drop rate for shards is even across the nodes and you can farm these shards from 6 energy nodes or 20 energy nodes at the same efficiency.
The SWGOH Events article we linked to explains this mechanic clearly. We usually don't share drop rates for events. Anything about drop rates on SWGOH events is speculative and likely based on their estimations.
I think most if not all of us posting here understand the mechanics, it's the % chance per energy we have an issue with.
Previous similar events have used 4% chance per point of energy spent so up to 80% on a 20 energy node. So people were optimistically hoping for / expecting that.
With two characters available simultaneously, I think 2% per energy for each character would have elicited some grumbling but been generally accepted.
But 1% per energy, combined with the fact that Cantina energy is neither plentiful nor cheap to begin with and that Cantina nodes top out at 16 energy just makes the whole thing feel unnecessarily stingy. Bah Humbug rather than Happy Holidays!
Then the Beskar Mando GC feat on top of all that was just rubbing salt in the wound.
Replies
It was crumb who linked to it in the official post.
You are correct. Early on, I think I said that it was Doja - but he only posted in the announcement thread. Crumb actually posted the links. But again, to be clear, neither one of them is to blame. Someone higher up in CG, who knew full well that the drop rate and the refresh estimations in the write up were flat out wrong, approved Crumb linking it. That's my issue.
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
Is there a Bristol Stool chart for drop rates ?
It's modeled on the Couric scale really...
Good analysis. I'll just add that getting whatever other cantina farm or signal data farm done much sooner in addition to thos pretty much make the 100 crystal refreshes worth it regardless of whether you are in a hurry to farm ig11 or kuiil.
Assuming you aren't permanently skipping them or planning to wait a year until they are accelerated characters.
Day 3. Only done 1 refresh but still??
What bothers me is that CG posted an article as their "preview of Beskar Mando" in which they do some math assuming a 4% drop rate. I understand this wasn't written by them, but it was promoted by CG. To have a 1% per energy drop rate is just crumby way of getting people to buy crystals anticipating a decent benefit from the creators, when in actuality, it's an inefficient use of money and crystals. That's my personal frustration though, I don't expect all to agree - but I don't think they should have promoted an article discussing a 4% drop rate.
You're misunderstanding what people are saying. If you read carefully, people are saying that there's a 2% chance of getting some kind of shard, which means, if the two toons drop equally often, that they each have a 1% drop rate.
Your estimate of 1% each is exactly what everyone else is saying. And everyone else got it from the same place you did. We're not bad at math, you're just misunderstanding what people are trying to say.
My stamina, my sense of humor, and my fashion sense are all decent.
I too nearly got a 4* Kuiil, but I, however, am doing THREE refreshes a day. It was either use my crystals saved up or quit playing altogether. But the sunk cost fallacy is a cognitive bias for a reason, and quite hard to break.
For now, the rancor challenge raid, the assumption of galactic chase percentages as drop rates without statement to the contrary, and the use of a newly released toon in galactic challenges will all, I hope, wear away at my silly, misguided brain. I'll have some time to think over the next two weeks.
THIS.
There are only two possibilities I can see here:
Whichever turns out to be true, CG doesn't come out of this well. And they simply do not care.
Fool me every couple of months for 5 years straight and counting...
33 attempts, 16 energy per.
15 total drops (11 Kuiil, 4 IG-11)
45% per attempt & 2.8% per energy. That's, like, 70% of the drop rate we expected instead of 50%. Guess I'll throw a party.
(Running total: 22/64 + 15/33 = 37/97 = 38% per attempt = 2.38% per energy)
The SWGOH Events article we linked to explains this mechanic clearly. We usually don't share drop rates for events. Anything about drop rates on SWGOH events is speculative and likely based on their estimations.
Then why link to a site that states information you know is false. I rarely have issues with this game or company but the way you have rolled out the event with requiring a gated toon for GC without notice or precedent and then misleading players on drop rates rather it was intended or oversight is absolutely damaging to your brand and image. I still love the game, but absolutely hate what you guys did here and I'm not one who easily forgets. While the game will go on, as it should, it will be without my support.
The website never said what the drop rates for additive drops are. They were conveying how player friendly additive drops are, compared to toons going straight to hard node farms
Previous similar events have used 4% chance per point of energy spent so up to 80% on a 20 energy node. So people were optimistically hoping for / expecting that.
With two characters available simultaneously, I think 2% per energy for each character would have elicited some grumbling but been generally accepted.
But 1% per energy, combined with the fact that Cantina energy is neither plentiful nor cheap to begin with and that Cantina nodes top out at 16 energy just makes the whole thing feel unnecessarily stingy. Bah Humbug rather than Happy Holidays!
Then the Beskar Mando GC feat on top of all that was just rubbing salt in the wound.