No...and it is out of 6, not out of 5. There are 6 samples (0/5), (1/5), (2/5), (3/5), (4/5) and (5/5) But we know that the probabily of scoring is 33% <<< everyone seems to agree with this. What is the probability of scoring...the probability THAT we score. In individual score...we can say. 1st attempt = (1/1) <<< scores…
No...not once a week. I am sure it is more than once a week, according to (what little) experience i have. So...1 out of 5 is 33% (i dont ask much. Just 1 battle out of 5 gives me the shards. So lets put aside, for now, the "2 out of 5 = 10.9%") and 0 out of 5 is 13.5%... Why do i get the feeling that i often get 0 out of…
Not deleted...it disappeared suddenly... I rewrote it above... So, point out where is the uncoreect math... You surely agree with the math of the individual attempt. (0/1) = 67% (1/1) = 33% Now see the 5 collective attempts as 5 attempts per day....and do it 1000 days = 5000 attempts >>> 67% x 5000 attempts = 3350 failed…
Oh there you go starslayer caught it in a quote before you got rid of it. Said by you: "It means >>> the Probability of (1/5) + P(2/5) + P(3/5) + P(4/5) + P(5/5) = 33% And the probability of (0/5) = 67%" This is just all wrong. Way back at the start of the thread I showed you the math for a 0/5, which is definitely not 67%.
NOTE: i had to rewite this, because when i had edited the origjnal post, suddenly it disappeared. Yes, because i was talking about (0/5) as AN attempt, not as 5 individual attempts. Having said that, there are now 6 samples. (0/5) = none is successful. Gets 0 shards in 5 attempts. (1/5) = 1 attempts out of 5 scores some…
Why do you keep on with the collective attempts? Each attempt is an individual 33% chance. You can't lump 5 attempts together and say 0/5 is the 67% fail. You have about a 14% chance of a 0 out of 5. The 1/5 has 1 drop and 4 not drops. The 2/5 has 2 drops and 3 not drops. Etc Why would you do 1000 days if you are doing 5…
2/5 seems to be the default, funny how frequently you get 1/0 but how incredibly rarely you get 4/5 to offset those 1s and 0s. Same with gear, I regularly do 12 attempts and the expected outcome is 3 but often I'll get 0-1-2 and sometimes 4-5 but getting 6 is extremely rare and getting 7-8-9 is dang near impossible, it…
The mistake was transferring the 33% drop rate to the success of the full set. I don’t know if you were going with the chance to roll at least one success out of five, which would be 33%; but the inverse of that would be the chance to roll at least one failure out of five, which would be 67%. So the chance of rolling 1, 2,…
Thanks for the info. I mean...i can handle 2 shards per 5 allowed hard battles (that is 1 out of 5, because each battle potentialy gives 2 shards)... But 0 shard per 5 allowed hard battles is too much for the heart...lol And i must add...it happens often for me... Some days...i spends 120 energies w/o getting any shards...…
33% drop rate means 67% no drop. The chance of 5 in a row of a 67% thing happening is .67x.67x.67x.67x.67 for a pretty high 13.5%. Pretty close to 1/7, so seeing this once a week if you do 5 sims a day is pretty much to be expected. The chance of just 2 in a row at 33% is .33x.33 for 10.9% So 5 in a row of no drops is more…