I just had a TIE Fighter dodge 8 attacks in a row (0.1% chance) at a supposed 44.08% evasion. Okay, sure, it happens. My next fleet battle, 7 straight dodges (0.3% chance).
So you're telling me I just hit a 1 in 309249? Talk about successfully navigating the asteroid field...
And no, before you all mention it, there was no foresight involved.
Psychology is a heck of a thing. ANY specific combination of 15 attacks with dodge chance that close to 50% is bound to be low probability. Even if it were alternating hits and dodges, your odds would be in a similar range. This one just happens to be (understandably) noticeable because it is unfavorable.
It's like playing poker. With a fair deck, you have an equal chance of hitting 2-4-7-J-A as you do 10-J-Q-K-A, but one is more noteworthy because it's more impactful.
Vader's basic can't miss. Therefore, the only ship that should be attacking the TIE is Vader.
The only monkey in the wrench to that strategy is if Vader dies quickly. If that's the case then leave TIE until last - and I mean don't touch him, at all, and that means no capital ships AoEs either. Especially so if you're against a Tarkin capital. Based on what capital ship you're running, if he's the only one left use any non-attacks if possible (e.g. Rex's defense buff) until you're Tarkin ultimate is ready or Thrawn's insta-death.
Other issue is if you killed a ship with non vader, they reinforce with scimitar, and tie now has retribution and all others are stealthed. Then you have to attack with 5 non vader. Had one unfortunate match where they focused my vader and he died right away. Their tie dodged 2 full rounds of me attacking until I landed a hit. And of course my tie took 3 consequtive hits and died. No dodge. But if you average his dodging and mine not, it's 40%...
Scimitar stealths everyone but the highest health ship. If TIE has the highest health, then yes... it will be the only ship you can focus fire on. Probably best to not let that happen.
RNG is the game's mechanism to ensure weaker players have a shot at winning so they don't get discouraged and leave the game. A fleet with rating of 300k and a **** poor reinforcement squad beats someone with 430k and a loaded squad top to bottom. How is that even possible?!?!
Because power is just a measure of how much you've invested in that ship. Every ship has a defined maximum power based on the number of pilots, number of abilities on those pilots, number of mods at level 15 with 5-dots, etc. You can max out your pilot, bring the ship to 7*, and max out its abilities--but a bad ship is still going to be a bad ship.
Like, my Millennium Falcon is my "most powerful" ship because I have Rey and Finn at 7*, full mods, all abilities omega/zeta, and the ship's abilities are maxed as well. But it's still a bad ship (too slow, has to sacrifice a turn just to do anything useful) and only gets used to fill platoons...
Stop using bad ships just because the number next to them is really high.
that's like 1 in 6.25 million (not exactly, but something like this)
0.0000784% to be exact, which is 1 in 1,275,510.2040816
roughly 1 in 1.275 million
Considering the number of players in the game and the number of potential fleet battles per day, mathematically something like this is going to happen to one person one time every day. It was just Dryff's day, is all.
Replies
Psychology is a heck of a thing. ANY specific combination of 15 attacks with dodge chance that close to 50% is bound to be low probability. Even if it were alternating hits and dodges, your odds would be in a similar range. This one just happens to be (understandably) noticeable because it is unfavorable.
It's like playing poker. With a fair deck, you have an equal chance of hitting 2-4-7-J-A as you do 10-J-Q-K-A, but one is more noteworthy because it's more impactful.
Other issue is if you killed a ship with non vader, they reinforce with scimitar, and tie now has retribution and all others are stealthed. Then you have to attack with 5 non vader. Had one unfortunate match where they focused my vader and he died right away. Their tie dodged 2 full rounds of me attacking until I landed a hit. And of course my tie took 3 consequtive hits and died. No dodge. But if you average his dodging and mine not, it's 40%...
Like, my Millennium Falcon is my "most powerful" ship because I have Rey and Finn at 7*, full mods, all abilities omega/zeta, and the ship's abilities are maxed as well. But it's still a bad ship (too slow, has to sacrifice a turn just to do anything useful) and only gets used to fill platoons...
Stop using bad ships just because the number next to them is really high.
Considering the number of players in the game and the number of potential fleet battles per day, mathematically something like this is going to happen to one person one time every day. It was just Dryff's day, is all.