Has anyone calcaulated the actual chance to escape in HAAT raid?

Bane1492
121 posts Member
edited June 2018
It states 40%, but I have to call foul on this. I was wondering if anyone has been collecting data.

I just started documenting this the last 3 raids since I notice BB8 has always struggled to escape. In 3 raids, he has escaped 2 times out of 11 attempts in P2.

This is not 40%. I'll keep this updated each raid from here on out.

There does seem to be a problem with data and stats not actually representing what happens in the game. Across the board. From this to critical chance to dodges and target lock chance in fleet.

Replies

  • Ultra
    4469 posts Member
    Its 40%
  • Last time I used zylo in P1 he got 13 failed escapes in a row, but then 5 successful ones. I know RNG doesn't like me, so if the escape isn't successful I just deal with it, I'm only playing a game. At times it does seem like less than 40% though.
  • crzydroid
    4603 posts Moderator
    I've had BB-8 escape quite a few times in the past, as well as JTR.
  • crzydroid
    4603 posts Moderator
    To bounce off what @DJphenom said though, the 95% confience interval for your sample is about 0-41%.

    For @DaPowerfulJedi's, it is about 12%-54%.
  • CYG77
    66 posts Member
    I've been wondering about this as well. In Phase 2, i decided to try and escape from the start of the battle to see if something was flawed. I kept attempting to escape JTR and BB8 everytime the cool down reset and did not get a single escape the entire run.

    I know RNG plays a part but that's a little far fetched to have no one escape. I made it to enrage and everyone was defeated. I think i managed to get 4 or 5 escape attempts (i believe, didn't keep track but it was 3 or more)
  • TVF
    17944 posts Member
    It feels like I succeed more than 40%. You feel like it's less than 40%.

    It's 40%.
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  • crzydroid
    4603 posts Moderator
    It's all RNG. One raid I had something like five failed escapes with CLS before he succeeded. Next team, BB-8 escaped on first try, robbing me of extra damage I could have gotten by waiting. So that particular raid was 29%, but again, small sample. I've had enough first try escape attempts in the past that I don't have any reason to feel it's other than 40%.
  • Last time I used zylo in P1 he got 13 failed escapes in a row, but then 5 successful ones. I know RNG doesn't like me, so if the escape isn't successful I just deal with it, I'm only playing a game. At times it does seem like less than 40% though.

    Same
  • Yeah it is 40%
  • If I had to guess, 40%
  • CaptainRex
    2773 posts Member
    When I used to pull Luke or Han out of my HAAT P1 solo, it would take me an average of 2 tries. On rare occasions that number would be 1 or 3, and twice it was 4, but 2 was the most common result, with a pretty big sample size (at least 4 or 5 months of HAAT raids).
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  • If you’re doing it in the same run (close game after fail and retry) you always pull the same result if you ran the raid exactly like your failed attempt. There’s RNG, but there seems to be a set run of things regardless of how many times you reset. Try in GW too. If your first hit misses in GW and you retry, that shot will always fail.
  • The answer is a ridiculous percentage...
    Do or don't there is no try
  • Deadheat wrote: »
    If you’re doing it in the same run (close game after fail and retry) you always pull the same result if you ran the raid exactly like your failed attempt. There’s RNG, but there seems to be a set run of things regardless of how many times you reset. Try in GW too. If your first hit misses in GW and you retry, that shot will always fail.

    There was an old post related to GW about "battle seed". Any random number generator requires a seed. Using the same seed results in the same random number being generated. Now, we don't know how the seed is constructed, but a "bad seed" could result in a string of "poor" results on a random number generation. I use "poor" in the context of user experience. There's nothing "poor" about the result itself, just how it's interpreted.

    for example, the seed 130438 could result in consecutive "rolls" of 87, 41, 99, 66, 63, 51, 77, 71, etc. All seemingly random and within the bounds of 0-100, but frustrating to us if that number needed to be 40 or less for our escape to be successful.
  • It does seem lower than 40%, or not random. Tonight in the tank raid I had one instance of six failed escapes, and another with seven straight failed escapes. The probability for this happening randomly at 40% is incredibly low.
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