Mission Shard Drop Rates

USAFmedic129

Anyone else having horrible luck with Mission’s cantina node.

Over the last several days I have spent all earned cantina energy and refreshes on her and earned 1 character shard and 2 purple ability mats per day. I got T3 up to 7* in under a month. Is Mission the vHan of Revan?

CCyrilS

I was just thinking this... Sure it's just a bad run, but it still stinks

thedrjojo

I am having worse luck with t3 than mission... I think people are claiming one of them have lower drop rates, but it's 30% vs 35%, not like 5%

TVF

USAFmedic129 wrote: »

Anyone else having horrible luck with Mission’s cantina node.

Over the last several days I have spent all earned cantina energy and refreshes on her and earned 1 character shard and 2 purple ability mats per day. I got T3 up to 7* in under a month. Is Mission the vHan of Revan?

It's RNG + more expensive node.

DaPowerfulJedi

I’m at 58/245 on Mission (about 24% drop rate). I could be off because I didn’t really track T3, but I think his drop rate was about 37%.

TVF

Lol that's pretty specific for not tracking it.

Ugnaught

I am also having unusually poor drop rates of mission shards.

DaPowerfulJedi

TVF wrote: »

Lol that's pretty specific for not tracking it.

Estimates

TVF

Yes and 37% is a pretty specific estimate. But ok.

CCyrilS

TVF wrote: »

Yes and 37% is a pretty specific estimate. But ok.

He meant 37% +- 15%, which I believe to be totally accurate.

Gair

I switched to T3-M4 because the rate was just so terrible. Now I just swap between the two like a bandaid for the pain.

TVF

The overall game-wide rate is the same.

DaPowerfulJedi

TVF wrote: »

Yes and 37% is a pretty specific estimate. But ok.

I guessed that I simmed his node 21 times a day for 32 days, which gave me the 250 shards I needed. That’s about 37%.

BobaFetaCheese

I've not had any issues with Mission (7*) or T3 (6*, 51/100).

Jolee and Z however have been terrible recently.

TVF

Key word: Recently

Boov

I would love it if someone actually shows a certain character has a significantly lower droprate when farming them from marquee to 7*. Why can't people just do that instead of asking/saying it's less due to percieving a lower droprate?
I'm no expert in statistics by any means, but the roughly 900 attempts it takes to farm 280 shards (assuming 30/33% droprate is the case) would come close to a reliable representation of the droprate right?
unlike feeling you've gotten a horrible droprate the last couple of days..

Vendi1983

Vet Chewie: 305/799 - 38.17%
Qi'ra: (currently) 75/275 -27.27%

jkray622

The thing about probabilities - everyone's individual results will still vary. But over a large enough sample size, the overall drop rate is highly likely to center around the theoretical drop rate (assuming all characters have the same drop rate, which has always been the "party line" from the devs).

For example: Vendi's numbers *can* be broken into individual characters...but I believe it's more accurate to combine them into a 380/1074 = 35% drop rate over those two characters. Since I believe the drop rate should be 30%, that means he's experiencing a statistically "lucky" break, and there is likely a corresponding person who is experiencing a 25% drop rate.

USAFmedic129

Holding steady at 1 shard per refresh, today. The drop rate on ability mats is terrible, too. I know it’s just my horrible RNG this week and as pointed out it’s 16 energy instead of 10 or 12 which is 1 top less per refresh.

Tromedlov13

Not to put anyone to sleep with statistics, but to add to what @jkray622 said, it takes a very large sample size to be sure of what a random number drop is.

In order to be 99% sure what the actual drop rate is with a even a +/- 5 percent on either side the sample size needs to be 666 attempts.

So even 2 people did the same 666 attempts there is only a 99% chance that both of them would be within 5% of the actual drop rate. Meaning that I could (though highly unlikely) get a 35% drop rate, someone else could get a 25% drop rate (assuming the actual drop rate is 30%), even with 666 attempts (and no I am not making that number up).

If you want to be 99% sure with a +/- of 1 you need to do 16,641 attempts.

With an expected percentage of 30 if you were to do 20 attempts (which I believe is the max you can do at one time in the game) you can be 99% sure that the drop rate will be between 3.56% and 56.44% or 30% +/- 26.44%. In other words 20 attempts gives you no clue about what the percentage is and the drops at that low a sample size can be wildly different.

TLDR - none of us are doing a large enough sample size (attempts) on a single node in a row to remove the RNG and get a true drop rate for that node.

USAFmedic129

Even under double drops I am only getting 0-1 shard returns on Mission. This is also now day 3 of no shards dropping for Zalbar in either fleet or hard node. The RNG in this game is just too much. Grats to those with awesome shard drop rates.

TVF

3 days of not a single shard from either hard or fleet? I find that hard to believe. Are you doing 8 of each for each day? You either have the worst possible luck of anyone in the game, or you're exaggerating.

USAFmedic129

TVF wrote: »

3 days of not a single shard from either hard or fleet? I find that hard to believe. Are you doing 8 of each for each day? You either have the worst possible luck of anyone in the game, or you're exaggerating.

There is no exaggerating a drop. You either get a shard or you don’t. I do 8 hard nodes of Jolee and 8 of Zalbar with 2 refreshes of Zalbar Hard node only and 3 refreshes of Mission per day. Even the purple ability mats with Mission are garbage drop rate. On a bonus drop chance of 7 sims I netted 2. There is no reason to lie or eggagerate a crappy drop rate node.

TVF

There's no reason for people to complain about getting a free stun cuff and free carbanti but they still do it.

If you get zero shards from 32 sims three straight days, you're the only one.

EDIT: This is my last post about it because I've already given more time to it than it deserves.

FailingCrab

USAFmedic129 wrote: »

Even under double drops I am only getting 0-1 shard returns on Mission. This is also now day 3 of no shards dropping for Zalbar in either fleet or hard node. The RNG in this game is just too much. Grats to those with awesome shard drop rates.

You can't get 1 shard drops under double drops; 1 is not a multiple of 2.

Vendi1983

@FailingCrab are you sure though? CG might have found a way to make it so.

FailingCrab

'Hiya holotable heroes!

Now that Double Drops are over we're thrilled to let you know that the shard drops for Hard Nodes have been changed to 0.5 shards per drop. That gives you even more opportunity to farm gear so you can enjoy your favourite toons when you unlock them!'

USAFmedic129

The pain is real.

USAFmedic129

FailingCrab wrote: »

USAFmedic129 wrote: »

Even under double drops I am only getting 0-1 shard returns on Mission. This is also now day 3 of no shards dropping for Zalbar in either fleet or hard node. The RNG in this game is just too much. Grats to those with awesome shard drop rates.

You can't get 1 shard drops under double drops; 1 is not a multiple of 2.

1 shard under double drops does = 2, but it still counts as a single shard per attempt. I am just being given a free shard if I happen to get lucky and actually get one from her node

Nikoms565

Character shard drop rates are 30-35% across all nodes. Period. Entire guilds have tracked the data. Search is your friend. Your "feelings" or past week of "bad luck" are variance.
Vent about a bad run? Sure, I guess. Try to claim that drop rates have suddenly been changed for you...or the character you're farming? Just stop..it makes you look silly.

Syrup_Chugger3

I've averaged 15-17% drop rate for the last 9 days