What is the algorithm for the final shards of a general character unlock
In reference to the image, I’ve spent maybe 400-500 crystals for the past couple of days refreshing shipments in search of a measly 8 shards for Logray. And this is just an example. I know others share my frustration and I’m just curious. Why is it that when the player is about to max out a character those last few shards won’t drop? What is the drop rate for 92/100?
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You are paying super close attention to a statistical system and trying to force a result. They actually change at the same rate as always, you are just focused looking for a result and getting frustrated it's not coming.
If you were at any other number of shards the restuls would work out the same as an overall process because it is a statistical system.
Track your results over a good sample size and you will see highs and lows that share no correlation.
If the player base is huge enough you might well find a player where Logray didn't show up at all, not a single time. On the other hand you might also find a player who got Logray shards let's say 100 times in a row.
Unlikely yes, but it can happen. Meaning it will eventually. Is it fair? Probably, as anyone has got the same chances. Does it feel fair? Hardly. But it's gambling so you can either get lucky or not.
Kakaka
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Where's your data?
Oh wait you said "observation."
Exactly. Thanks for noticing. Since you add nothing to the discussion I will.
Every time I farm a character there are certain patches of persistant bad rng u need to get through. At the beginning of 4 *, at the beginning and end of 5*, at the beginning of 6* and at about 85-95/100. The rest seems to yield pretty much the same return. While u are farming a toon or if said toon is needed for an event it will appear in the shop more often if u dont have enough cristals to buy it.
Gear works similar. Certain pieces seem to disappear from the shop just when u most need them (I buy them all the time whether i need them or not so it is really stands out)
Now, when all the trolls come out of their caves and ask for my data and the statistical analysis to back all this up....I say if u need proof of this go and take the data yourself.
3 years of playing here I have seen enough. I can see the patterns already pretty clearly. I dont get flustered by a day with no shards anymore.
To me this all makes sense....after all if we get all the pieces right away they wouldnt make money. The game works like that....you need something and u cant get it for a while. Then it shows up in the shop but u have no cristals....you pop the visa and get instant gratification.
Its the way I think it works.
Kakaka
Telegram @Kakakawakaka
https://swgoh.gg/u/kakakawakaka/
Código aliado 192-195-873
https://swgoh.gg/g/516/global-elite-games/
It is a game, it meant to be enjoyed and be challenging at the same time but simming 8 times on hard node and get 0 shards is just a very poor way of laying out progression.
I understand that 33% will even out in long run.
It has been some time since I dealt with these types of algorithms but a much better way:
1 sim, no drops, rate bumps by 5%(just an example)
2nd sim, now at 38%
Once you get a drop it resets to 33%.
May cap top at 50% or not.
Or guarantee 1 drop per 8 sims.
There are many ways to do it. It won’t be game breaking and it may actually be an incentive to spend crystals. Just a cpl shards short? Let me refresh for 200 crystals because i will get at least a drop.
Rng will still be there.
Maybe I should put in feedback but I haven’t seen anything being answered there by dev team.
The problem here is that there are players out there that have shown the drop rate is 30%, so the proof is out there.
You are the one making these claims and therefore the burden of proof is on you.
Not going to waste my time taking the data when I know it is so.
Kakaka
Telegram @Kakakawakaka
https://swgoh.gg/u/kakakawakaka/
Código aliado 192-195-873
https://swgoh.gg/g/516/global-elite-games/
Feelings aren't relevant.
There is no algorithm. There's a drop rate.
8/20 = 40%
You're ahead of the game.
Do you really think they would invest that kind of time when they're trying to get a mobile game off the ground? Do you think they've invest that kind of time to go back and replace all that code now that the game is successful?
It just wouldn't make economic sense to the business model.
so on a limited budget with limited content they decided to put their design power into making it super technically tricky to get those last 5 shards?
conspiracy theories never cease to amaze me.
I'm talking about at launch. They wouldn't retroactively apply that code, so you're talking about something that would have needed to be coded at the time the game was developed... so yes, limited budget and time applies.
Secondly, the guild store didn't even exist when the game was developed, so again, you're making claim that when they went to install that store that rotated character shards they thought to themselves "no wait, if a player is approaching unlock or 7* we should reduce the likelihood that character appears! MUHAHAHAHAHA". Again, you must not be a programmer if you think this is something they would spend time designing.
Lastly, do you not work for a business? You know how those things work right? No matter how much money is made every department works within a specific budget that was set at the beginning of the year... you know that right?
Famous last words
An approach which served medical science well for 2000 years.
Discord: Iona Starbound#5299
And thus was born the anti-vax movement ... And the flat Earth society ... And the Salem witch trials ...
Take that, science! Who needs you!