When will I finish?

Darthpenguin3

This is my acount. https://swgoh.gg/p/345373133/characters/
When do you think that I will finish farming all my Old Republic to seven stars. Zalbaar is around 46/85 shards, Shan is around 36/85 shards, and Jolee is around 30/65 shards. I sim 3 of each everyday, all bonuse energy goes to Jango Fett. Should I focus more on my Old Republic?

Waqui

Drop rates for character shards are approximately 1/3. Use this number to calculated an approximate end date depending on how many battles you plan to do every day.

OldBaldOneKenobi

From the time you wrote this, it would take you approx 660 attempts to get the 220 shards you need for Jolee (the one you have the least shards for). At 3 attempts per day, this amounts to 220 days or sometime around Aug. 8, 2019. Strictly speaking, you only have about a 50% chance of getting your shards in that time, but usually I find this approximation to be good within a couple of days.

So, given that Revan is likely to come back in mid-Feb (and then again maybe mid-May-to-June and again in mid-Aug-Sept-Oct, depending on the cycle length), yeah, you'll want to use more energy--unless you're good missing two more cycles of Revan.

If you had switched to 8 attempts per day on Jan. 1, you'd have a 50-50 chance at getting Bindo in 82 days, or by Mar. 23, so unless you're using crystals to get extra attempts, probably still not going to make it for the next Revan, but might be close, if EA makes it a longer cycle.

OldBaldOneKenobi

BTW, if you want to rigorously calculate your probability of finishing by a certain day, count the number of shards you need, then count the number of days and multiply by the number of attempts per day to get the total number of attempts through that day. Then go to http://wolframalpha.com/ and enter this formula:
replacing "660" in both places with the total number of attempts, and replacing "220" with the number of shards you need. The answer will come up as a fraction, e.g. 0.514637 = 51.4637%.

Jarvind

If you want to finish in any reasonable amount of time, you're gonna need to table Jango and focus on the OR guys.

Do note that Jolee and Bastila (and I think maybe Zaalbar?) can also all be farmed with ship energy, so you can double up ship/normal energy on one of them until they're finished, then move on to the next.

OldBaldOneKenobi

True, Jarvind. I had forgotten about the Fleet nodes. Thanks.