I'm not sure if anyone did this yet, but I went ahead and calculated the expected value of the 2 different Marquee Packs (1299 crystals and 2599 crystals), and found the cost per shard.
So to summarize, you'll get on average 7.77 shards in the 1299 packs, and an average of 19.59 shards in the 2599 packs. On average, you'll get a better value with the more expensive pack (167 crystals per shard vs 133 crystals per shard).
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