Darth Revan requirement farming
Can someone point me to where I can find the probability of shard drops on Bastila Fallen, Carth and Juhani, as I’m getting terrible rates, and would like to know what’s wrong.
I’ve got screenshots of the last week or so of each daily attempt of every character, sometimes I’m getting “zero” shards from one toon, when I’ve been spending 700 crystals a day.
Something is definitely broken since the 8-5 sim reduction.
I’ve got screenshots of the last week or so of each daily attempt of every character, sometimes I’m getting “zero” shards from one toon, when I’ve been spending 700 crystals a day.
Something is definitely broken since the 8-5 sim reduction.
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Howdy, Stranger!
Replies
Austin, there’s no conspiracy, there’s a reality, I’ll send you a few hundred screenshots if you like, and my point is I want to know what the rates are, nothing else.
What did you reply for exactly ? if you have no input other than to call me crazy don’t bother.
As I’ve said before, I want to know the drop rates of the characters mentioned, nothing else, you have issues.
33% per attempt. Over 3 days with no refresh u should expect 3-8 shards on average
Further update: 3-8 shards is an 80% confidence interval if im using the terms right
Thank you so much, where can I find this information ?
I’ve been doing 3 refreshes of each character and I’m not getting anything like that.
Drop rates across all characters have been collected by the player base over the years. Given a large enough sample size, we can have a fairly high confidence of the rate.
As with any probability, some players will see lower than 33% rate, and others will see higher than 33%. Typically, only the players who fall below 33% will come to the forums to complain, so we see periodic posts of players who are "convinced" the drop rate was reduced for: them/this event/this node/this character
The drop rates on nodes are not officially announced anywhere. They are determined by groups of players that collectively tracked their drops over large sets of attempts. Those players have consistently found that the drop rates for shards are 33%.
And people who have already made IP their minds that there’s a conspiracy against them refuse to believe it.
It sounds like what you’re looking for is something you can point to to say “my drop rate doesn’t match the published rate” and demand compensation. That’s not how it works.
Thanks for your response, I can see your point, the only problem is I’ve been playing the game for over two years and have a a fair amount of experience farming characters.
If something is out of whack then what can I do apart from let everyone know ?
Someone said above that it will even out, I hope he’s right, because this has been going on a while, which is why I’m posting.
Please don’t assume, I’m not after anything but to see a pdf or something similar from the developers stating what to expect.
They did the same with the pack probabilities, so I imagined that would do the same with this.
I can’t be compensated for the amount of time I’ve spent on this game, it’s about the only thing I’d like back sometimes.
That sounds interesting, would be good to see.
Players tend only to notice statistical anomalies when they are not in their favor. A player gets ~33% for 3 weeks in a row? Doesn't even ping their mental radar. A player gets two days of 10-20% drops in a row? Their "omg the drop rate was nerfed" radar starts going crazy.
I use spreadsheets to plan my farming. When the Darth Revan toons first became farmable, I extrapolated how long it would take me to farm them given how many refreshes I was buying, and then I think one toon finished a couple days early, 2 of them were within a day of target, and 1 of them was a couple of days late.
Does my experience confirm the drop rates? No. But neither does your seeing lower than 33% drop rates.
I just started farming B1 and Droideka yesterday. Got 9 B1 shards in 15 sims, and 11 Droideka shards in 20 sims. Does that mean those two toons have a higher drop rate? I doubt it - it just looks like I had a lucky day.
So unless you've collected data for every sim you've ever done over 2 years for all characters, your individual data set is going to be so small as to be statistically insignificant.
tl;dr Any single player's lower-than-expected drop rates do not mean there's a problem.
I have taken a record of each sim probably two weeks now, and I’ll do the same until they’re done, are you saying that data is meaningless ?
Here ya go.
https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/196365/new-old-republic-characters-drop-rates-day-28-completed/p1
If you keep it up long enough, than less so, but really you want a bunch of ppl recording data over a long period of time
They didn’t do it for pack probabilities until various countries’ laws and Apple/google policies forced their hands, which was pretty recently. There hasn’t been similar pressure on node drop rates and they haven’t published anything.
It is wrong assumption. If drop is truly random then further drop rates are completely unaffected by previous (i.e. further drop rate still 33% even for someone who didn't get a single shard in years). And if it's pseudo-random then there is no point to assume higher than 33% drop rates in the future without knowing the function used.
Do you do it all at once or 2 sims at a time?
I try to stick to 2 or 3 sims at a time. When I go max at once I feel prone to the luck you're having.
- Grand Admiral Thrawn
The thing is however, that the whole system is built on coincidence; i.e. luck. Meaning that you get lucky streaks, unlucky streaks, in addition to, well, ordinary streaks.
Basically it's like rolling a dice. And in reality, you could roll a dice an infinite number of times, and only roll a 1, or never roll a 6. It's unlikely but still possible. That's how coincidence and luck works.
Throughout my time playing this game, I've certainly felt that some shard nodes have been more rewarding than others, some characters harder than others. But in reality that really is just an illusion.