Are you freaking kidding me?

Donmanolito

Just ****? This game loses any amount of fun... There is one guy in my shard that has already 3 G13 toons on his DR squad and I dont even get any pieces for one G13 sub piece...

TVF

Just 3? Lucky.

RandomSithLord

A sample of 11 attempts clearly provides sufficient data to make conclusions.

If only laboratories and companies would stop wasting money running hundreds or thousands of tests..

Daishi

I've had about 1/5 or less avg drop rates. Mynlast attempts were 0/14

Lysandrax

Donmanolito wrote: »

Just ****? This game loses any amount of fun... There is one guy in my shard that has already 3 G13 toons on his DR squad and I dont even get any pieces for one G13 sub piece...

You're 8/50 for the piece. You havent done any refreshes for it so you've hardly 'worked for it.'
Someone else having something doesnt mean you should have it too

leef

1/10 is weaksauce. Do enough refreshes and you'll be able to post a 0/20 screenshot, goodluck trying to capture one of those.

Morambar

Random question and this seems as good a spot as any for it, my guild just started clearing heroic Sith raid, do I need to put the 12.5 pieces on before the finisher or can I do the finisher first?

jhbuchholz

Austin9370 wrote: »

My experience is that g13 has pretty good drip rates.

Drip rate... That seems like a much better description than drop rate. I'm going to start using it. 👍

Eutus

jhbuchholz wrote: »

Drip rate... That seems like a much better description than drop rate. I'm going to start using it. 👍

I logged in just to agree with this sentiment. Drop rates will now be replaced with drip rates.

kello_511

Morambar wrote: »

Random question and this seems as good a spot as any for it, my guild just started clearing heroic Sith raid, do I need to put the 12.5 pieces on before the finisher or can I do the finisher first?

These are just additional gear pieces, can be applied in any order. The “finisher” will just be the 6th piece that you apply.
For those who had their toons maxes at g12+5, this new piece is the “finisher” only because it wasn’t available before.

BaldingHead90

RandomSithLord wrote: »

A sample of 11 attempts clearly provides sufficient data to make conclusions.

If only laboratories and companies would stop wasting money running hundreds or thousands of tests..

So to counter the 11 attempt 1 drop he'd have to get like 6 or 7 in his next 11 attempts this way he's right around 7-8 at 22 attempts. Which is roughly 30-35%, however I bet a finger that if he does another 11 he's not going to get more than 3 pieces, if he keeps doing 11 attempts he's going to get alot more 1s, 2s and 0s than 6-7s, so honestly I just don't buy that whole " drop rates will even out" argument.

I simply believe drop rates are just too low and to be quite honest if the devs wanted they could literally make it so that each individual attempt always gives the same amount of shard so for example if they wanted a true 30% they could program it so every time you do an attempt if it's a multiple of 3 you always get exactly 1/3 and any additional attempts will then have a 30% drop rate, for example:

If you do 1 attempt you have 30% to get 1 shard, if you do 2 attempts you get 30% to get 1 shard and 30% to get a second shard counting individually but if you do 3 attempts you always get 1 100% of the time. Do you understand what I'm saying?

So if I did 14 attempts it would be the highest product of 3 + whatever is left so at 14 attempts I'd get 12/3 so 4 shards 100% of the time and then 1*30% + 1*30% so I'd have an extra 30% chance to get 6 shards total. If I did 15 attempts I'd get exactly 5 shards.

This seems like the only way to actually remove the RNG and make drop rates more stable, you would only be gambling with 1/2 shards maximum at a time since if you got a multiple of 3 you're guaranteed to get that shard.

Now you may ask, what if I really need 3 shards and I only have enough energy for 3 attempts? Under the system I propose you would not have a chance to get more than 1 if you sim all 3 at the same time so you would have to sim 1 then 1 and then 1 agaim or you'd sim 2 then 1. Although this sounds like a problem the reality is that you're most likely not going to get 3/3 anyways and 100% chances to get 1 per 3 attempts over time it would benefit alot more. It's similar to the zeta challenge changes, sure you no longer can pull 2 but your chances of pulling it in the first place was too small so it pays off better to always get 1.

Morambar

kello_511 wrote: »

Morambar wrote: »

Random question and this seems as good a spot as any for it, my guild just started clearing heroic Sith raid, do I need to put the 12.5 pieces on before the finisher or can I do the finisher first?

These are just additional gear pieces, can be applied in any order. The “finisher” will just be the 6th piece that you apply.
For those who had their toons maxes at g12+5, this new piece is the “finisher” only because it wasn’t available before.

Thankyou!

makoamagana

Donmanolito wrote: »

Just ****? This game loses any amount of fun... There is one guy in my shard that has already 3 G13 toons on his DR squad and I dont even get any pieces for one G13 sub piece...

Ya but how many porgs did you sacrifice to rngeezus?

Wrain

Omg drop rate is awesome...I feel the 0 and 1s coming asap 😉

RandomSithLord

BaldingHead90 wrote: »

RandomSithLord wrote: »

A sample of 11 attempts clearly provides sufficient data to make conclusions.

If only laboratories and companies would stop wasting money running hundreds or thousands of tests..

So to counter the 11 attempt 1 drop he'd have to get like 6 or 7 in his next 11 attempts this way he's right around 7-8 at 22 attempts. Which is roughly 30-35%, however I bet a finger that if he does another 11 he's not going to get more than 3 pieces, if he keeps doing 11 attempts he's going to get alot more 1s, 2s and 0s than 6-7s, so honestly I just don't buy that whole " drop rates will even out" argument.

Why do you think it should balance out in 22 attempts? You missed the point completely. These double digits are irrelevant, if you want to get statistically correct data you need to increase the sample size.

There is nothing to buy about it. It's maths that should be taught in every school.

Phern

I’m ready for double drips!!!! 2 x drip = dripdrip

Lovimgsaskia1

Geo tb drops them too, we just got 20 from 20 stars, so I guess my primary farm for them will be there.

DarjeloSalas

BaldingHead90 wrote: »

for example if they wanted a true 30% they could program it so every time you do an attempt if it's a multiple of 3 you always get exactly 1/3 and any additional attempts Do you understand what I'm saying?

So if I did 14 attempts it would be the highest product of 3 + whatever is left so at 14 attempts I'd get 12/3 so 4 shards 100% of the time and then 1*30% + 1*30% so I'd have an extra 30% chance to get 6 shards total. If I did 15 attempts I'd get exactly 5 shards.

This seems like the only way to actually remove the RNG and make drop rates more stable, you would only be gambling with 1/2 shards maximum at a time since if you got a multiple of 3 you're guaranteed to get that shard.

Now you may ask, what if I really need 3 shards and I only have enough energy for 3 attempts? Under the system I propose you would not have a chance to get more than 1 if you sim all 3 at the same time so you would have to sim 1 then 1 and then 1 agaim or you'd sim 2 then 1. Although this sounds like a problem the reality is that you're most likely not going to get 3/3 anyways and 100% chances to get 1 per 3 attempts over time it would benefit alot more. It's similar to the zeta challenge changes, sure you no longer can pull 2 but your chances of pulling it in the first place was too small so it pays off better to always get 1.

1) do you understand what you’re saying? Your 14 sim example, where you claim you’d have a 30% chance of getting 6 shards, is mathematically flawed. If it’s 30% chance for 1 event happening, the odds of it happening twice is NOT 30%

2) do you really think there’s any mileage in such a convoluted system? I mean, if 3 sims guarantees a shard then shouldn’t shards just accumulate like energy?

The drop rates are what they are, are not manipulated or changed, and a great many forum users are too statistically challenged to understand and deal with this.

five2zero

spend more money.......

BaldingHead90

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

BaldingHead90 wrote: »

for example if they wanted a true 30% they could program it so every time you do an attempt if it's a multiple of 3 you always get exactly 1/3 and any additional attempts Do you understand what I'm saying?

So if I did 14 attempts it would be the highest product of 3 + whatever is left so at 14 attempts I'd get 12/3 so 4 shards 100% of the time and then 1*30% + 1*30% so I'd have an extra 30% chance to get 6 shards total. If I did 15 attempts I'd get exactly 5 shards.

This seems like the only way to actually remove the RNG and make drop rates more stable, you would only be gambling with 1/2 shards maximum at a time since if you got a multiple of 3 you're guaranteed to get that shard.

Now you may ask, what if I really need 3 shards and I only have enough energy for 3 attempts? Under the system I propose you would not have a chance to get more than 1 if you sim all 3 at the same time so you would have to sim 1 then 1 and then 1 agaim or you'd sim 2 then 1. Although this sounds like a problem the reality is that you're most likely not going to get 3/3 anyways and 100% chances to get 1 per 3 attempts over time it would benefit alot more. It's similar to the zeta challenge changes, sure you no longer can pull 2 but your chances of pulling it in the first place was too small so it pays off better to always get 1.

1) do you understand what you’re saying? Your 14 sim example, where you claim you’d have a 30% chance of getting 6 shards, is mathematically flawed. If it’s 30% chance for 1 event happening, the odds of it happening twice is NOT 30%

2) do you really think there’s any mileage in such a convoluted system? I mean, if 3 sims guarantees a shard then shouldn’t shards just accumulate like energy?

The drop rates are what they are, are not manipulated or changed, and a great many forum users are too statistically challenged to understand and deal with this.

Actually it is 30% each individual attempt is it's own 30% so it would be the same thing as repeating it 2 separate times.

Can you explain what you mean in the second point? I completely lost you there

BaldingHead90

@DarjeloSalas like I said, IF the drop rates aren't manipulated and they truly are a fixed percentage that is never changed for any reason, then there is absolutely not difference made other than the fact that you remove the whole gambling feeling from it, which again is optional because if you don't want the guaranteed 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 you can do the base rate -1 amount of attempts so you can sim 2 at a time in the example I gave you which wouldn't trigger the algorithm to give you your 1/3 guaranteed shard.

Like I said there is absolutely no difference between doing that and what they already did with the zeta challenge. If it's all in our mind then I'd love to have more peace of mind and know what I'm getting every time instead of having to justify all the 0s with: "hey next time I'll get an extra this many so it's all going to even out eventually", this is highly addictive gambling behavior that doesn't have to be in the game, but if course for $ reasons it's going to be.

jhbuchholz

BaldingHead90 wrote: »

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

BaldingHead90 wrote: »

for example if they wanted a true 30% they could program it so every time you do an attempt if it's a multiple of 3 you always get exactly 1/3 and any additional attempts Do you understand what I'm saying?

So if I did 14 attempts it would be the highest product of 3 + whatever is left so at 14 attempts I'd get 12/3 so 4 shards 100% of the time and then 1*30% + 1*30% so I'd have an extra 30% chance to get 6 shards total. If I did 15 attempts I'd get exactly 5 shards.

This seems like the only way to actually remove the RNG and make drop rates more stable, you would only be gambling with 1/2 shards maximum at a time since if you got a multiple of 3 you're guaranteed to get that shard.

Now you may ask, what if I really need 3 shards and I only have enough energy for 3 attempts? Under the system I propose you would not have a chance to get more than 1 if you sim all 3 at the same time so you would have to sim 1 then 1 and then 1 agaim or you'd sim 2 then 1. Although this sounds like a problem the reality is that you're most likely not going to get 3/3 anyways and 100% chances to get 1 per 3 attempts over time it would benefit alot more. It's similar to the zeta challenge changes, sure you no longer can pull 2 but your chances of pulling it in the first place was too small so it pays off better to always get 1.

1) do you understand what you’re saying? Your 14 sim example, where you claim you’d have a 30% chance of getting 6 shards, is mathematically flawed. If it’s 30% chance for 1 event happening, the odds of it happening twice is NOT 30%

2) do you really think there’s any mileage in such a convoluted system? I mean, if 3 sims guarantees a shard then shouldn’t shards just accumulate like energy?

The drop rates are what they are, are not manipulated or changed, and a great many forum users are too statistically challenged to understand and deal with this.

Actually it is 30% each individual attempt is it's own 30% so it would be the same thing as repeating it 2 separate times.

That's right. And the chances of it hitting both times are 30% * 30% or 9%.

For fun, the odds of a 30% chance occurring 20 times (max sims) is: 0.00000000348% (about 1/28,000,000,000)

The odds of it occurring 0 times is: 0.00365% (about 1/27,000)

This is why you see so many 0/20 posts and no (to my knowledge) 20/20 posts. The latter is orders of magnitude less likely to happen.

(someone good with stats is welcome to check my math, I believe the underlying point is solid though)

BaldingHead90

RandomSithLord wrote: »

BaldingHead90 wrote: »

RandomSithLord wrote: »

A sample of 11 attempts clearly provides sufficient data to make conclusions.

If only laboratories and companies would stop wasting money running hundreds or thousands of tests..

So to counter the 11 attempt 1 drop he'd have to get like 6 or 7 in his next 11 attempts this way he's right around 7-8 at 22 attempts. Which is roughly 30-35%, however I bet a finger that if he does another 11 he's not going to get more than 3 pieces, if he keeps doing 11 attempts he's going to get alot more 1s, 2s and 0s than 6-7s, so honestly I just don't buy that whole " drop rates will even out" argument.

Why do you think it should balance out in 22 attempts? You missed the point completely. These double digits are irrelevant, if you want to get statistically correct data you need to increase the sample size.

There is nothing to buy about it. It's maths that should be taught in every school.

No that's not what I said don't take my words out of context. I don't think it should balance in 22 attempts I just think the amount of times you get way lower than average are generally speaking way more frequent than their counterparts. It's my own personal experience with the game.

The whole sample size thing seems like the scapegoat in these conversations. Even so, even if it truly does even out after hundreds of attempts, it doesn't change the fact that when you need it the most the game seems to fail you. I don't care if I'm going to get an extra 2-3 shards in the future to even out for my poor results today because I need the rewards TODAY, not in 2 days not in 10 days not in a month. And the fact that EA has been actively working on parents for years and years to optimize this particular fact and turn it into profit it only takes comes to show you that all these people are right to complain.

Check out my most recent example, I'm sitting at 10 salvages away from finishing a certain piece I want to wait until it shows at a raid, I keep seeing it at the store where I can buy 5 salvages, after I see it in literally every store reset for 4 days in a row and I keep passing it, eventually I get tired and I decide to commit, I buy 5 shards so now I need 5 more, I wait for the next reset, not there!, I wait for another reset not there again I waste 100 crystals for 2 more resets no there still. So after seeing it for 4 days in a row in every single reset and when I commit it's not there, I mean I honestly saw it there so many times that I thought it was a permanent slot. But hey for 1500 crystals you can buy some of them...

DarjeloSalas

BaldingHead90 wrote: »

@DarjeloSalas like I said, IF the drop rates aren't manipulated and they truly are a fixed percentage that is never changed for any reason, then there is absolutely not difference made other than the fact that you remove the whole gambling feeling from it, which again is optional because if you don't want the guaranteed 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 you can do the base rate -1 amount of attempts so you can sim 2 at a time in the example I gave you which wouldn't trigger the algorithm to give you your 1/3 guaranteed shard.

Like I said there is absolutely no difference between doing that and what they already did with the zeta challenge. If it's all in our mind then I'd love to have more peace of mind and know what I'm getting every time instead of having to justify all the 0s with: "hey next time I'll get an extra this many so it's all going to even out eventually", this is highly addictive gambling behavior that doesn't have to be in the game, but if course for $ reasons it's going to be.

I don’t see this as a problem tbh. The game has RNG - as do most games of this nature.

USAFmedic129

Because some rum is better than the topic.

Nikoms565

I hit 5 on 5 attempts on Brood dude today. I fist pumped.

YaeVizsla

On a small scale, some sets are better. Some sets are worse.

I've been tracking my finisher and kryotech drops. So far for finishers, I'm at 92/390 overall. 23.6%.

In there, I've got a couble 8/20s. I've got a 4/7. But I've also got a 1/13 and a 0/6.

It happens. Dice are swingy. But one bad roll does not a rigged RNG make.

TVF

Nikoms565 wrote: »

I hit 5 on 5 attempts on Brood dude today. I fist pumped.

I hit 10/20. This means I was 5/15 after my first 5/5. Slap in the face.