When i say/said five...i said SHARDS max....as in you go into characters, click on the character, chose to go for shards and one multi-sim maxes out at 5 tries before having to refresh. Not 5 refreshes.
Doing. 3 per day i average maybe 3 shards total per day on Juhanni. Occasionally i get more, but those are more than countered with the days i get 1 or none.
When i say/said five...i said SHARDS max....as in you go into characters, click on the character, chose to go for shards and one multi-sim maxes out at 5 tries before having to refresh. Not 5 refreshes.
Doing. 3 per day i average maybe 3 shards total per day on Juhanni. Occasionally i get more, but those are more than countered with the days i get 1 or none.
How many shards it feels like and how many shards you actually average are not the same thing. And if you're saying things like "maybe 3 shards," that sounds more like feeling than you're actually tracking on a spreadsheet.
The odds are one in three. That means on average, 5 attempts gives 1 2/3 shards. That also means you're going to get a lot of 0's and 1's. If you actually crunch the numbers for the distribution on five node attempts, it approximately comes out to a 1/6 chance of no shards, a 1/3 chance of 1 shard, a 1/3 chance of 2 shards, and a 1/6 chance of 3 or more shards.*
This means half the time, you will get 0 or 1 shards, which is disappointing and that feeling sticks out in the mind more prominently, making the drop rate feel like it averages out to 1 or less per 5 attempts. That's why you have to actually track it over a period in order to make a determination; your feelings will deceive you when it comes to statistics.
*Actual values come out to 0: 13.17%, 1: 32.92%, 3: 16.46%, 4: 4.12%, 5: 0.41%.
I understand the odds. I'm just telling you, i can say it averages 3, at best because it's an abject rarity that i get more than 1 in any one sim. I get 2-3 much more often on any other toon not named Sabine frankly I've not felt that way on any other toon i've farmed. But i do feel on these two specific ones. I can't do too much speculation on Sabine now because i've frankly give up on that one. I've not started vets so it'll be a LONG time before i could get back to it.
I suppose it's not impossible that i just get bad rolls on just juhanni,but i doubt it. Especially when simultaneously working a second toon on HM's and getting better results. I'd wager doing that and one toon always doing worse than the other over a long span is substantially low. Given their odds, it should be much closer to even in the long run. Just since getting them both to 5*, if i maintained the rates and flipped priority to BSF, she'd be around 35/100 whereas Juhanni is now at 75/85.
There’s a level of vagueness in your post that makes it difficult to explain. +1 or 2 crystal refreshes “most” days leaves us completely guessing
Let me clarify... "most days" is more than 90% of the days over the 10 month stretch. "+1 or 2" means I used 1 or 2 crystal refreshes on top of whatever accrued cantina energy I had. I do not see the "vagueness" to which you refer.
If you can’t see the vagueness in that I won’t be able to help you.
How much more than 90%?
How many days did you do 1 refresh?
How many days did you do 2?
How many days did you do no refreshes?
How many total attempts did it take to take Vet Chewy to 7⭐️?
I understand the odds. I'm just telling you, i can say it averages 3, at best because it's an abject rarity that i get more than 1 in any one sim. I get 2-3 much more often on any other toon not named Sabine frankly I've not felt that way on any other toon i've farmed. But i do feel on these two specific ones. I can't do too much speculation on Sabine now because i've frankly give up on that one. I've not started vets so it'll be a LONG time before i could get back to it.
I suppose it's not impossible that i just get bad rolls on just juhanni,but i doubt it. Especially when simultaneously working a second toon on HM's and getting better results. I'd wager doing that and one toon always doing worse than the other over a long span is substantially low. Given their odds, it should be much closer to even in the long run. Just since getting them both to 5*, if i maintained the rates and flipped priority to BSF, she'd be around 35/100 whereas Juhanni is now at 75/85.
Everything about this post says that no, you do not understand odds or how they work, and your claims are literal nonsense.
Show your data or stop spreading conspiracy theories.
At a 1/3 drop rate, it works out to 1 2/3 shards each day on average.
This means getting 2 or 3 shards is above the needed average to have a 1/3 drop rate. 3 is by a large margin.
This also means that getting 0 is easily made up for. Perception makes us think we aren't getting that large a drop rate because we only ever see low numbers, when in reality that's all we need to see to actually have a pretty robust drop rate.
I get 2-3 much more often on any other toon not named Sabine frankly I've not felt that way on any other toon i've farmed. But i do feel on these two specific ones. I can't do too much speculation on Sabine now because i've frankly give up on that one.
You must have data to have this discussion. You can record and analyze data. You most certainly cannot record or analyze feelings and speculation.
Well, I suppose a psychiatrist can analyze feelings. But a psychiatrist cannot tell you what your Sabine drop rates were based on your feelings, just how you might better cope with the results.
Replies
When i say/said five...i said SHARDS max....as in you go into characters, click on the character, chose to go for shards and one multi-sim maxes out at 5 tries before having to refresh. Not 5 refreshes.
Doing. 3 per day i average maybe 3 shards total per day on Juhanni. Occasionally i get more, but those are more than countered with the days i get 1 or none.
The odds are one in three. That means on average, 5 attempts gives 1 2/3 shards. That also means you're going to get a lot of 0's and 1's. If you actually crunch the numbers for the distribution on five node attempts, it approximately comes out to a 1/6 chance of no shards, a 1/3 chance of 1 shard, a 1/3 chance of 2 shards, and a 1/6 chance of 3 or more shards.*
This means half the time, you will get 0 or 1 shards, which is disappointing and that feeling sticks out in the mind more prominently, making the drop rate feel like it averages out to 1 or less per 5 attempts. That's why you have to actually track it over a period in order to make a determination; your feelings will deceive you when it comes to statistics.
*Actual values come out to 0: 13.17%, 1: 32.92%, 3: 16.46%, 4: 4.12%, 5: 0.41%.
That’s cool and all but I can’t waste crystals on refreshes since I need them for bloody stun gun gears
Swgoh.gg
I suppose it's not impossible that i just get bad rolls on just juhanni,but i doubt it. Especially when simultaneously working a second toon on HM's and getting better results. I'd wager doing that and one toon always doing worse than the other over a long span is substantially low. Given their odds, it should be much closer to even in the long run. Just since getting them both to 5*, if i maintained the rates and flipped priority to BSF, she'd be around 35/100 whereas Juhanni is now at 75/85.
If you can’t see the vagueness in that I won’t be able to help you.
How much more than 90%?
How many days did you do 1 refresh?
How many days did you do 2?
How many days did you do no refreshes?
How many total attempts did it take to take Vet Chewy to 7⭐️?
Show your data or stop spreading conspiracy theories.
This means getting 2 or 3 shards is above the needed average to have a 1/3 drop rate. 3 is by a large margin.
This also means that getting 0 is easily made up for. Perception makes us think we aren't getting that large a drop rate because we only ever see low numbers, when in reality that's all we need to see to actually have a pretty robust drop rate.
You must have data to have this discussion. You can record and analyze data. You most certainly cannot record or analyze feelings and speculation.
Well, I suppose a psychiatrist can analyze feelings. But a psychiatrist cannot tell you what your Sabine drop rates were based on your feelings, just how you might better cope with the results.