Rey Drop Rate - 32.72%

cosmicturtle333

After 379 attempts my guild has received 124 shards.

32.72% of 9 attempts per day is 2.94 shards.

So basically a 1/3 drop rate.

Just thought it might interest someone.

Artas

Yes, thanks for that. I m farming her.

Nutteralex

I think all hard shards are 1/3

Catomking

I have her and am finally almost at the 7 star but she seems worth it. I fare well between her high attack and foresight

Supreme

Thanks for sharing that.

Does that mean one has to SIM the Hard Nodes 990 times to get a 7*?

Huitzy

Nutteralex wrote: »

I think all hard shards are 1/3

I think the same

Achilles

Nutteralex wrote: »

I think all hard shards are 1/3

same for cantina battles

cosmicturtle333

Supreme wrote: »

Thanks for sharing that.

Does that mean one has to SIM the Hard Nodes 990 times to get a 7*?

Yep. Energy costs are 12,16 and 20.

So 330 x 12 + 330 x 16 + 330 x 20 = 15840 energy to farm her.

StarNickRulex

Good as always @cosmicturtle333

I had noticed it, yet.. This is the demonstration.
Mine is on 3/85 (5* yesterday, yesss! )
Very slowly farm with 18 attemps per day, too

cosmicturtle333

Achilles wrote: »

Nutteralex wrote: »

I think all hard shards are 1/3

same for cantina battles

Finn is 40% for me.

Achilles

cosmicturtle333 wrote: »

Achilles wrote: »

Nutteralex wrote: »

I think all hard shards are 1/3

same for cantina battles

Finn is 40% for me.

Well farmed GS, Acolyte, JC, Talia and Barriss ... all together were at 34%, didnt look at each char so far.

Supreme

cosmicturtle333 wrote: »

Supreme wrote: »

Thanks for sharing that.

Does that mean one has to SIM the Hard Nodes 990 times to get a 7*?

Yep. Energy costs are 12,16 and 20.

So 330 x 12 + 330 x 16 + 330 x 20 = 15840 energy to farm her.

If I do the normal daily limit of 3 times per Node, it will take 110 days.

Can you help with a calculation, how many Crystals needed if I want to 7* her in 55 days?

To do it in 55 days, that's 1 refresh per Node, so 3 Nodes will be 150 Crystals per day. I'd need 288 Energy for 1 day on Rey only, that's 3 Energy Refreshes 50+50+100, so in total I need to spend 350 Crystals per day if I want to get her in 55 days? Correct?

Irrlicht

Nice. I haven't calculated personally but my observations also say that it is 1 to 3.

cosmicturtle333

Supreme wrote: »

cosmicturtle333 wrote: »

Supreme wrote: »

Thanks for sharing that.

Does that mean one has to SIM the Hard Nodes 990 times to get a 7*?

Yep. Energy costs are 12,16 and 20.

So 330 x 12 + 330 x 16 + 330 x 20 = 15840 energy to farm her.

If I do the normal daily limit of 3 times per Node, it will take 110 days.

Can you help with a calculation, how many Crystals needed if I want to 7* her in 55 days?

To do it in 55 days, that's 1 refresh per Node, so 3 Nodes will be 150 Crystals per day. I'd need 288 Energy for 1 day on Rey only, that's 3 Energy Refreshes 50+50+100, so in total I need to spend 350 Crystals per day if I want to get her in 55 days? Correct?

Yeah. That's correct.

Supreme

That's a whopping 19,250 Crystals worth, $180.

Or should I instead pull 6 times of 8x Chromium

I kinda want Leia, but Rey is good too, even 6 x Chromium pulls won't get her to useable tier.

Sighs

Achilles

Supreme wrote: »

cosmicturtle333 wrote: »

Supreme wrote: »

Thanks for sharing that.

Does that mean one has to SIM the Hard Nodes 990 times to get a 7*?

Yep. Energy costs are 12,16 and 20.

So 330 x 12 + 330 x 16 + 330 x 20 = 15840 energy to farm her.

If I do the normal daily limit of 3 times per Node, it will take 110 days.

Can you help with a calculation, how many Crystals needed if I want to 7* her in 55 days?

To do it in 55 days, that's 1 refresh per Node, so 3 Nodes will be 150 Crystals per day. I'd need 288 Energy for 1 day on Rey only, that's 3 Energy Refreshes 50+50+100, so in total I need to spend 350 Crystals per day if I want to get her in 55 days? Correct?

you get 2x 120 + 3x 45 = 375 energy per day, so if you focus on Rey only, you have to refresh the 3 nodes only (3x 50 energy)

Supreme

Hard to keep track of the Energy refill because I use them as and when available.

What's the cost for the 3rd Node refresh? 100 Crystals?

AlexHermanssonGr

35/126 for me since i started tracking. Roughly 27%

DV_27

I've never kept track of my drops. Might get more frustrating that way lol. But I just unlocked her at 4* a couple hours ago. Still a long way to go til she's arena ready though

Ztyle

Still 59 days left to 7* her however the RNG owes me big time on Ray, only 3 times since December 17th had I gotten over 1/3 rate on her, last time was the day after I mentioned it on the forum, however on my daily shard hunt(Ray, Anakin, RG, FOTP, Fives, EE, FOST, HRS) I'm getting +40% in the big picture

Skye

It goes through lows and highs for me.. not too unusual to see a week of low returns.. i.e. around 0 to 2 shards a day from nine nodes.. and then you get like a super good streak of 3-6 shards from those nine nodes per day over several days.. and it'll fluctuate between the two...

All I know it's not uncommon to see no drops for four days straight on nine attempts in a day

Nikoms565

Thanks cosmicturtle. Facts >> anecdote. Good work.

AlexHermanssonGr

Ztyle wrote: »

Still 59 days left to 7* her however the RNG owes me big time on Ray, only 3 times since December 17th had I gotten over 1/3 rate on her, last time was the day after I mentioned it on the forum, however on my daily shard hunt(Ray, Anakin, RG, FOTP, Fives, EE, FOST, HRS) I'm getting +40% in the big picture

Do you do all their nodes? That has to be like 1000 energy/day

JohnnySteelAlpha

Nice info to share with everyone. Thanks @cosmicturtle333

RJ__Brando

cosmicturtle333 wrote: »

After 379 attempts my guild has received 124 shards.

32.72% of 9 attempts per day is 2.94 shards.

So basically a 1/3 drop rate.

Just thought it might interest someone.

I've been keeping track for chirpa as well. ...I'll post once we get close to the same attempts to compare. (Since his gear is a nightmare similar to Rey's)

Ztyle

AlexHermanssonGr wrote: »

Ztyle wrote: »

Still 59 days left to 7* her however the RNG owes me big time on Ray, only 3 times since December 17th had I gotten over 1/3 rate on her, last time was the day after I mentioned it on the forum, however on my daily shard hunt(Ray, Anakin, RG, FOTP, Fives, EE, FOST, HRS) I'm getting +40% in the big picture

Do you do all their nodes? That has to be like 1000 energy/day

768 energy
I use energy refresh 50-50-100-100-100 = 600 energy plus we get 135 in bonus energy and the time refresh gives 240 a day in all 975 energy, giving 207 energy for gear farming

scuba

Going old school with pen and paper.

Ztyle

@cosmicturtle333 nice work btw and thanks for sharing

cosmicturtle333

scuba wrote: »

Going old school with pen and paper.

My guild is tracking everything in a large, unorganized note on line, to tally everything up its easier to use pen and paper.

Qleak

Nice work

Note to reach 330 successful attempts this will have a Negative Binomial Distribution. So you expect to have 660 attempts to farm her to 7* (not 990). Here's a quick table of the probability (as a decimal) vs number of attempts (or fewer):

0.05 589
0.10 605
0.15 615
0.20 623
0.25 631
0.30 637
0.35 643
0.40 649
0.45 655
0.50 660
0.55 666
0.60 671
0.65 677
0.70 684
0.75 691
0.80 698
0.85 707
0.90 719
0.95 736
0.99 768

Here's what the distribution looks like



Best,

-Q

cosmicturtle333

Qleak wrote: »

Nice work

Note to reach 330 successful attempts this will have a Negative Binomial Distribution. So you expect to have 660 attempts to farm her to 7* (not 990). Here's a quick table of the probability (as a decimal) vs number of attempts (or fewer):

0.05 589
0.10 605
0.15 615
0.20 623
0.25 631
0.30 637
0.35 643
0.40 649
0.45 655
0.50 660
0.55 666
0.60 671
0.65 677
0.70 684
0.75 691
0.80 698
0.85 707
0.90 719
0.95 736
0.99 768

Here's what the distribution looks like



Best,

-Q

Umm no.

It's a 1 in 3 chance of a shard drop. You need 330 shards. 330 x 3 = 990.

Nice graph, but you're wrong.