100 crystal energy refreshes vs rate of return for double drops
September 13, 2019 5:45PM
edited September 2019
Is it worth it to refresh for 100 crystals to get energy for double drops?
Or should you just spend it to get gear from the stores?
The cheapest MK 5 stun gun drop is 10 energy, so 100 crystals gets you 12 plays. At a 20% drop rate (generous?) you get on average 2.4 pieces of gear, which we need to round down because we can't get a partial piece of gear, and 2x for the DD bonus. So assuming our 20% drop rate we get 4 stun guns on average for 100 crystals, or 25 each. Stun guns are 260 crystals for 10 in the shipments or 26 each, for a savings of one crystal. (Also note, you can buy a complete Mk 5 Stun Gun prototype for 1274 crystals, or 25.5 crystals - so even less of a savings).
For Mk 5 Stun Cuffs, they are 28 crystals each so the savings is 3 crystals on double drop days. Marginally better than stun guns.
-o-tech are also 28 crystals each in the store.
For Mk 8 Golden eyeballs are a bargain in the store, for 15 crystals each. So spending 100 crystal refreshes to get them is a net loss of (-)10 crystals per.
For Mk III Carbanti's, you can farm them on an 8 energy node, so you get 15 plays / 100 energy. Which give us an average drop rate of 6 pieces for 100 crystals, or ~17 crystals. An 11 crystal savings vs the 28 crystal price in the store.
G12 gear pieces are either 30 or 35 crystals in the store, so there is a 10 or 15 crystal savings each depending on the piece.
So the big question is at the 100 crystal refresh rate, is the crystal savings per gear piece worth it to potentially get less than the minimum amount you could buy in the store? I'll leave that to everyone to decide for themselves, but for me I would say no - especially for Mk 5 Stun guns. I'll be stopping at 50 crystal refreshes, or spend my 100 crystal refreshes on G13 finishing pieces, which are only available on farming nodes or for real $$$$ in store.
My other big takeaway on this is that if you think the in-game economy isn't built on 'i have to have it now' impulse buying, here is the math that says otherwise.
Edit: formatting error
Or should you just spend it to get gear from the stores?
The cheapest MK 5 stun gun drop is 10 energy, so 100 crystals gets you 12 plays. At a 20% drop rate (generous?) you get on average 2.4 pieces of gear, which we need to round down because we can't get a partial piece of gear, and 2x for the DD bonus. So assuming our 20% drop rate we get 4 stun guns on average for 100 crystals, or 25 each. Stun guns are 260 crystals for 10 in the shipments or 26 each, for a savings of one crystal. (Also note, you can buy a complete Mk 5 Stun Gun prototype for 1274 crystals, or 25.5 crystals - so even less of a savings).
For Mk 5 Stun Cuffs, they are 28 crystals each so the savings is 3 crystals on double drop days. Marginally better than stun guns.
-o-tech are also 28 crystals each in the store.For Mk 8 Golden eyeballs are a bargain in the store, for 15 crystals each. So spending 100 crystal refreshes to get them is a net loss of (-)10 crystals per.
For Mk III Carbanti's, you can farm them on an 8 energy node, so you get 15 plays / 100 energy. Which give us an average drop rate of 6 pieces for 100 crystals, or ~17 crystals. An 11 crystal savings vs the 28 crystal price in the store.
G12 gear pieces are either 30 or 35 crystals in the store, so there is a 10 or 15 crystal savings each depending on the piece.
So the big question is at the 100 crystal refresh rate, is the crystal savings per gear piece worth it to potentially get less than the minimum amount you could buy in the store? I'll leave that to everyone to decide for themselves, but for me I would say no - especially for Mk 5 Stun guns. I'll be stopping at 50 crystal refreshes, or spend my 100 crystal refreshes on G13 finishing pieces, which are only available on farming nodes or for real $$$$ in store.
My other big takeaway on this is that if you think the in-game economy isn't built on 'i have to have it now' impulse buying, here is the math that says otherwise.
Edit: formatting error
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My break at work is over, so I can't write anything super long. My first reaction to this is - I don't burn 50 crystal refreshes for gear, except during double drops - I save crystals to buy gear from the store, or use free energy.
But I do agree with your premise, if this is how you are using your crystal spends outside double-drop events.
It's usually still more cost efficient to farm with the 50 crystal refresh than it is to save up and buy them outright from the store
Legit question, is there math to back that up? (not trolling)
I do think the word gamble is entirely appropriate.
YES there is math.... The accepted drop rate is 20%. And assuming you need 50 salvage for a piece and the energy cost is 10...
If you buy 50 refreshes @50c (over several days) that would cost 2500c and give you 6000 energy enough for 600 attempts @10 energy each..... With a 20% drop rate that is 150 salvage. Enough for 3 complete pieces. Making your cost per complete piece 833 crystals. *note expected cost, but it does average out over time*
During double drops the 100c refreshes would net you the same return.
NOTE: it has been said that the drop rate is higher if you have <20 salvage on hand and lower when you have more then 40. Personally I do not believe that, but if you do, your better off farming the first 25 stun guns salvage, then buying 25 salvage from the shop to complete the piece.
600 x 20% (.2) = 120, not 150
2500c / 120 units = ~21 crystals
So in your example each completed piece of 50 units = ~1042c, and the cost for certainty (because in the shop you are paying for a return of a specific amount) per unit is ~5c (just a little over) for Mk 5 Stun Guns (more for more expensive pieces, but significantly less than the example above).
That said, the real difference between our two examples is that in my example, I'm proposing that you can't get a return of a partial piece of gear, and I've factored that in by rounding down after each 'batch' of plays, purchased in 100c quantities. So in my example, 20% of 12 plays is 2, not 2.4. Over time, this leads to a significantly lower rate of return, because I'm eliminating partial units over the course of multiple plays, rather than at the end.
At the moment, my thinking is that this gives a more realistic projection of actual returns and much cheaper cost for certainty.
You are choosing to make a math error so no wonder you’re getting the wrong answer.
You won’t always get two. You’ll have horrible drops, and amazing drops, but it will average out to 2.4 per 12 sims. NOT 2.
If the question is, ‘should I do 100 refreshes on double drop days’ then it’s such a high price for a small sample size. That is a legitimate concern. If the question is, “should I farm gear for 50 crystals or save up and buy it, then unquestionably you WILL have a large enough sample size over weeks and months and beyond that it will average out to 20% and it WILL be a better return on investment. It’s not an insignificant amount you’re rounding off when it will be multiplied by thousands upon thousands of times. You are fudging the numbers by doing that.
Irrelevant anecdote: I spent 3x100 refreshes today and got 16 kyrotechs. That’s 18.75 crystals each. To buy 25 for 700 out of shipments is 28 crystals a piece. I’ll take that savings thanks. And my drop rates weren’t anomalous. 8/36 (which is what I got before double drops) is only 22%.
Thanks for the response. I think it's a little rough to say that I'm "choosing to make a math error" - it implies that I knew the right answer to start with. I don't (or didn't, when I first posted), which is why I'm working my way through the problem. But I do appreciate the help, and I see where I'm going wrong.
Up until the last week or so (since unlocking Darth Revan) I haven't had felt like I could afford using my 50c refreshes for gear every day. So, I started out working this problem with the first question: ‘should I do 100 refreshes on double drop days’. It didn't seem to make sense to me.
But I do see and understand where, over several thousand plays you will average out your returns and you can't just chop off .4 of a piece for every 12 plays. In that context - which is probably the better question than what I originally asked - it makes sense and the math backs it up.
Nice! You gambled and won - kudos. I got 12 G13 finishers for 12 plays on one of my refreshes. I felt pretty good about that.
If you are an new player, then those credits, training droids and other gear are all very useful, and make it so the 50 energy refresh is the clear choice.
Now with relics burning through all gear, I think the 50 refresh stays the way to go for everyone.
It all depends on your crystal income I guess.
Not implying you knew the right answer, but you chose to use a wrong variable. The drop rate for purple gear is definitely 20%. I tracked all kinds of drops for months and months, and some things for over a year. Foil hat wearers will tell you otherwise, but it’s solidly 20%. You were operating with a drastically lower number. Might seem like a small amount, but as I said it compounds thousands of times.
Feel free to experiment yourself if you have the patience. Do it over a long period of time. A day or two is useless as an indication. Just one 50 refresh a day, and see what you get over 3 months.
Nope. I got just a tad over 20% for a tiny sample size. Normal day of farming. Like with the lottery, you got to be in it to win it. The difference is that we know the precise rate that “winning tickets” show up. If there were a stack of scratch-off tickets, and you had inside info from the makers that 20% were winners, then it’s no longer gambling. You’re just doing the math on cost vs return to see if there is enough value to offset the cost. If it’s worth it mathematically then it’s just a matter of buying enough.
Here’s what it looks like over time. If you are farming a 20% drop rate item that costs 1400 crystals to get fully crafted...
Buying 3x150 refreshes will get you 52.5 fully crafted items per year.
Saving 1400 crystals and buying them gets you 39.1 fully crafted items per year.
So you get an extra 13 full items for free in a year by knowing the math, and not getting panicked by occasional bad runs.
Thanks for the input! The original question was about Double Drop days, and it was correctly pointed out that if you are willing to spend 50 crystals on regular days, then the odds are the same for spending 100 crystals on double drop days.
Yes, rip off is more accurate.