Credit Heist Fixed???
Hello all,
So for the past 5-6 credit heists I've only been able to get 5 million credits. It says 1.5 - 10 million credits. According to what the game says its based on statistics. Like drop rates. So why is this number coming up? Statistically speaking I should have gotten 7.5 million atleast once already. Has new management abandoned the statistics posted by the game and dropped them. In other aspects as well?
I mean I've never simmed 5, and then refreshed for 25 crystals, and simmed 5, and refreshed for 50 crystals and simmed 5 for a character and receive 0 shards.!!! If that's the fact isn't that breach of contract agreement to distribute shards at a certain %? And if not how do you explain my credit Heist and I shards after 2 refreshes?
So for the past 5-6 credit heists I've only been able to get 5 million credits. It says 1.5 - 10 million credits. According to what the game says its based on statistics. Like drop rates. So why is this number coming up? Statistically speaking I should have gotten 7.5 million atleast once already. Has new management abandoned the statistics posted by the game and dropped them. In other aspects as well?
I mean I've never simmed 5, and then refreshed for 25 crystals, and simmed 5, and refreshed for 50 crystals and simmed 5 for a character and receive 0 shards.!!! If that's the fact isn't that breach of contract agreement to distribute shards at a certain %? And if not how do you explain my credit Heist and I shards after 2 refreshes?
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Replies
2.5M is by far the most common outcome from one attempt, so 5M is by far the most common outcome from the two attempts combined.
5M, 1.5M are much less common, but over, say, 10 credit heists I’d be surprised if you didn’t see at least one of them appear.
10M is like the golden snitch. Very rare. I’d be surprised if it was as much as 1% probability to happen.
I’ve been playing 4 years. I once got 15M total for my credit heists. I’ve had 3M total, the absolute minimum, more than once.
As for your statistics comment, could you point me to where the developers have stated what the probabilities for credit heist are? Or shard drop rate?
As for how to explain them, you should study probability. The best summary I can give you is if you toss a coin and get heads, you should not expect the next toss to give you tails.
There is a thing called sample size. Please go get a coin and flip it, do sets of 2 or 4, see how many come out to 50/50. then track the long term and see how many flips it takes you to see 50/50 for all your flips, after say 10 sets to remove those possibly lucky starts. it can take quite a lot to see that within 1% and even more to approach the actual proven mathematical answer. Sure you could get lucky in the first 10, but its a good experiment to see why a small sample size is unreliable towards real statistics.
there is no breach, there is also no contract. just math.