executor fleet evasion off??

When attacking Executor fleets - HT, RC, XB, IG, S1, and misc. the evasion calculation seems way different than fleet arena. I was suspicious so I tracked stats 20 battles in each of Fleet Arena and GAC. This was always against an Executor using my Malevolence with Tie Fighter, HB, VD (starting) and Spy, Soldier, and Ebon Hawk (reins).
I know this is not a consistent counter, but that is not the specific issue I am addressing.
In 20 battles in Grand Arena, I had 215 attacks against ships with evasion up, which I understand is supposed to be 15 + 2% evasion rate. Out of 215 attacks I hit 124 times. This equals a 42% evasion rate. In those same battles, I did 181 attacks on ships without evasion up and was able to hit 158 times, which is a 12.7% evasion rate.

In Fleet Arena, in 20 battles, I had 204 attack on ships with evasion up, and was able to hit 163 times, which is a 20% evasion rate. There I had 312 attacks on ships with no evasion up and was able to hit 301 times, which is an evasion rate of 3.5%

NOTE: I was able to get more overall attacks per battle in Fleet Arena because I would win more of those.
NOTE2: Anytime I attacked a ship with foresight, I did NOT use it in my total.
NOTE3: The vast majority of the defenders has HT in starting lines up, but a few used IG2000. This shouldn't make a difference as far as I can tell, but maybe I am missing something.

Why is the evasion rate in GAC so much higher than fleet arena? Is there a different mechanic in GAC My sample size seems large enough to account for random differences. It is really frustrating because I use Fleet Arena to practice for GAC and feel completely misled by the differences. Also, a 42% evasion rate is ridiculous.

Replies

  • crzydroid
    7301 posts Moderator
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    The sample size is large enough that the confidence intervals don't overlap. That doesn't rule out a type I error, of course. What's interesting is that you are using a Malevolence counter, so there's no potential unspotted Breach messing with the results.

    I'd be interested to see if you keep tracking and if others want to start tracking too, to see if these differences even out or if we have more evidence of a discrepancy.
  • Options
    I am legitimately interested in this, can you please keep tracking?
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