OK -really simplified math - so let's say that there is a 40% chance of a drop (EA said it was better than Shards and shards are about 1/3 for cantina from what I read and experienced) and that all mod shapes drop equal (or 1/6 chance of any type of mod). Stats accumulate as multiples, therefore you have a 0.4 x 0.167 = 0.067 or 6.7% chance of getting the mod type you want from any battle.
Now let's sat you are doing a 4-dot challenge... if you assume that the 3 dot types (2 dot, 3 dot and 4 dot) possible all drop at the same chance (1/3 or 0.333), you have a 2.2% chance of getting the mod shape with the mod rarity that you want.....
For reference, betting #21 of an american roulette table has a 2.6% chance of hitting....
Now, let's say you really want a 4-dot arrow with speed as a primary. Note that there are 7 possible primary stats for the arrow, assuming an equal distribution your chance is 1/7 or 0.143. Your chance:
OK -really simplified math - so let's say that there is a 40% chance of a drop (EA said it was better than Shards and shards are about 1/3 for cantina from what I read and experienced) and that all mod shapes drop equal (or 1/6 chance of any type of mod). Stats accumulate as multiples, therefore you have a 0.4 x 0.167 = 0.067 or 6.7% chance of getting the mod type you want from any battle.
Now let's sat you are doing a 4-dot challenge... if you assume that the 3 dot types (2 dot, 3 dot and 4 dot) possible all drop at the same chance (1/3 or 0.333), you have a 2.2% chance of getting the mod shape with the mod rarity that you want.....
For reference, betting #21 of an american roulette table has a 2.6% chance of hitting....
Now, let's say you really want a 4-dot arrow with speed as a primary. Note that there are 7 possible primary stats for the arrow, assuming an equal distribution your chance is 1/7 or 0.143. Your chance:
0.4 x 0.167 x 0.333 x 0.143 = 0.32%
Pretty good argument for just buying mods....
I think you are generous with drop rate. They said higher than shards but who is to say they didn't nerf shard drop rate. Either way, thanks a lot, Now I really feel defeated!!! LOL
Replies
@Kyno
If only! But you see:
You must have an RNG for the drop, which RNG's the shape, which RNG's the stats.
You have missed a whole RNG!
Seriously, I'm getting **** off be the amount of posts about too many square mods when I can't get a single one.
Don't forget about the RNG for quality of mod (E-A).
and the mk3/4/5
@leef
@armyhutchings
Oh gods! It's even worse than I imagined!
Now let's sat you are doing a 4-dot challenge... if you assume that the 3 dot types (2 dot, 3 dot and 4 dot) possible all drop at the same chance (1/3 or 0.333), you have a 2.2% chance of getting the mod shape with the mod rarity that you want.....
For reference, betting #21 of an american roulette table has a 2.6% chance of hitting....
Now, let's say you really want a 4-dot arrow with speed as a primary. Note that there are 7 possible primary stats for the arrow, assuming an equal distribution your chance is 1/7 or 0.143. Your chance:
0.4 x 0.167 x 0.333 x 0.143 = 0.32%
Pretty good argument for just buying mods....
DarthBarron (Kevin, aka KevWalker)
I think you are generous with drop rate. They said higher than shards but who is to say they didn't nerf shard drop rate. Either way, thanks a lot, Now I really feel defeated!!! LOL