Check the data, guilds are not catching up
May 23, 2017 9:33PM
edited May 2017
Draw this graph:
X axis: Time
Y axis (line 1): Number of players that activate General Kenobi
Y axis (line 2): Number of players that activate Han Solo
What I want to know is; are both those lines healthy?
Think of it as a heart monitor. You want both lines to be fluctuating at a more or less steady state. If one of those lines flatlines for an extended period of time, it means guilds aren't catching up fast enough and the game is stagnating - players aren't progressing. If one of those lines goes too high, it means the raid has become a free for all, and players aren't being incentivised to put in time and resources into the game.
My hypothesis is this:
I bet you line 2 is doing just fine. The Rancor Raid is eminently achieveable for players; it follows a nice progression curve from Tiers 4 through to 7, with incremental progress and a clear strategy for improving.
But I'll also bet you line 1 (General Kenobi activation) has flatlined. I.e. Middling guilds have been stuck trying to progress from Normal raids to Heroic for months and are not catching up with those guilds that beat Heroic within the first few months. The jump from Normal to Heroic is a devastating barrier to cross - it's hard to sustain progression. Some guilds never make it.
With the proposed changes to Raid escape, and the signal of intent to crack down on strategies for beating Heroic AAT too quickly - all I'm going to say is: keep an eye on that line. Don't let it flatline.
X axis: Time
Y axis (line 1): Number of players that activate General Kenobi
Y axis (line 2): Number of players that activate Han Solo
What I want to know is; are both those lines healthy?
Think of it as a heart monitor. You want both lines to be fluctuating at a more or less steady state. If one of those lines flatlines for an extended period of time, it means guilds aren't catching up fast enough and the game is stagnating - players aren't progressing. If one of those lines goes too high, it means the raid has become a free for all, and players aren't being incentivised to put in time and resources into the game.
My hypothesis is this:
I bet you line 2 is doing just fine. The Rancor Raid is eminently achieveable for players; it follows a nice progression curve from Tiers 4 through to 7, with incremental progress and a clear strategy for improving.
But I'll also bet you line 1 (General Kenobi activation) has flatlined. I.e. Middling guilds have been stuck trying to progress from Normal raids to Heroic for months and are not catching up with those guilds that beat Heroic within the first few months. The jump from Normal to Heroic is a devastating barrier to cross - it's hard to sustain progression. Some guilds never make it.
With the proposed changes to Raid escape, and the signal of intent to crack down on strategies for beating Heroic AAT too quickly - all I'm going to say is: keep an eye on that line. Don't let it flatline.
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Replies
P2 is the biggest hurdle in hAAT. Nute and the Jawas breaking it? I fully understand the devs immediately plugging that hole. If they had waited, 7* omega'd Nute would have been a requirement for entry into all guilds, and line 1 would have spiked ridiculously. Any fix after that would have required huge apologies and amends.
Zylo is not required by any guild. Nice to have, but ... meh. Who wants to spend 3 hours soloing P1 anyway? No need to fix it immediately, because there were other costs associated. No need to offer huge apologies and amends, because it was clear it was pretty exploity, but at the same time not an easy or highly effective exploit.
In the end, completing hAAT without leaning on Nute or Zylo will feel like a real accomplishment. I like stuff that's hard. Victories handed out like candy turn to ash in one's mouth ...
https://swgoh.gg/u/arkham/, A Team
I also agree that Zylo wasn't a win button for Heroic - you still had to beat three other phases.
But I worry that too many guilds have now built Zylo into their strategy for beating Heroic. Many guild members will have taken one for the team by investing in Zylo whilst their fellow guild mates focused on other phases. That's cooperative.
Removing Zylo may drive an even deeper wedge between those that are close to beating Heroic and those that completed it literally 8 months ago.
I guess you complete your raids without Clones, Droids, Chirpa, Zader, and rebels huh. Good for u.
It will just be even more tedious and RNG dependent than it was before.
You can also do the same thing with Zavage. Escaping is just harder with him, and it will be with Zylo when the do the bug fix.
My guild has a 3 hit limit for any phase so no one solos P1 with Zylo anyways.
It's still doable. The phases where most guilds stall out is P2 because of the sticker shock of how much faster the turrets are from normal to Heroic.
The main issue guilds have with completing HAAT has more to do with mods than it does with any specific toons or bug fixes.
Nute wasn't causing any such thing. It had only been out for 3 freaking days.
We don't have that data. Only the devs do.
I'd be really interested to know from a data perspective how healthy the guild progression is going. From what I see on these forums and in my own guild, I'd guess that the situation has been something like:
- For the last 6 months there has been a tiny percentage of hyper committed / high spending players that completed Heroic months ago (let's say 3% of daily players)
- I imagine this percentage has barely grown at all in the intervening time (maybe 1 extra percent for the sake of illustration)
- Now, I'd happily wager that in the last 2 months we've seen an upward tick in that rate of progression (Let's say we now have 5% of daily players able to farm Kenobi)
- But overall, this is a pretty poor progression curve if the goal is to keep a large majority of those players who beat T7 of the Rancor on the merry-go-round of playing the game and investing their time and money.
Now:
- The Nute combo would probably have sent this upward tick into a hockey graph. Much as players would like to see that, I don't think it would have been healthy.
- But getting rid of Zylo is likely to kill off the small upward tick that we've seen altogether; keeping the game on a flatline.
- Either way, unless the progression line improves (without becoming unsustainable) we better hope that players are extraordinarily patient at playing a game where there is such a huge gulf (on their own arena shard) between each other.
It's really hard for players to judge this without the data. A lot of the people in the 2, 3... 5 per cent (whatever it is) will struggle to understand why this is even a problem.
If your members had all started farming the teams/toons 'needed' for the raid 6 months ago, you would have had it on farm by now.
I'm not saying that this will happen, but it is definitely worrisome. It just seems like slap in the face to smaller guilds. I understand that smaller guilds should get the same rewards as fast as the monster guilds with big rosters, but what is an acceptable amount of time for smaller guilds to even start getting such rewards? Months later? Years?
Like I mentioned we were able to smoke the rancor six months ago (with out the Teebo or Zader, aka the easy teams) and as of now we are no where close of being able to complete Haat. Why is there such a disparity in the difficulty between the raids to begin with? And what's the point of being in a guild if if the challenge seems truly insurmountable?
Rant mode off.
They should be designed for guilds with 25% top players, 25% average players, 25% low players and 25% mostly inactive players.
This would make it easier and funnier to lower player to progress and get inputs from higher players, while helping them in other ways (tickets, equipment they don't still need and so on).
Guilds made only of top players shouldn't complain if contents are too easy to them, they should just switch to more challenging situations
No way it's 30%. My guild is ranked ~800 and it takes us 20 min to clear Heroic Rancor but we're not quite there yet on HAAT.
This^
Plus now we know what teams are good. And it's not like is easy to get them. You have to maxed them zeta them and mod them which isn't easy if most of your guild is FTP. So even after working on such teams we are still far from having them viable for Haat.
I don't have Zylo, but curious to what your response is to P2-P4? And if people don't check this site or use chat apps how would they know it's a "bug", especially if it was made by the dev and put in the game?
Just because you can't do it and are stuck doesn't mean others are, the reason is your guild has a problem.
Either
You're not gearing the right toons
You have poor communication
You have poor turn out
You have poor mods
Either way you need to give your guild direction not blame the content.
Zylo and Nute are fixed... Just means that only people that should be able to finish HAAT will finish it now rather than the ones who were a bit weak and relying on Zylo.
Is there any data?
There are less than 500 guilds able to complete haat. There are probably 50k guilds around
Only people it hurts are people with dead guilds if your team contributes you'll finish the raid.
Btw @Darax_ren this thread is complete garbage you've posted 0 data and just plucked figures out of the air.
90% of guilds finish HAAT <- see I can say random numbers and call it data too.
Hyperbole is strong on these forums Ouchie. Alot of people make things a bigger deal than what it is.
Kinda like the latest mod fiasco..i read a few players complaining it was gonna set so many players back becuase of the few that benefited from it.
To everyone else complaining..you all should know by now the devs never intended for a single player to do 8plus million damage with a single team. GK is good...really good. If you all want him join together as a guild and get it done, but dont think you deserve him cause 10 people decided to run a certain team while the rest of you leech off their damage and reap the rewards.
The OP wasn't saying he had numbers, he was saying that the devs, who do have the numbers should make sure to keep an eye on them. There are however people who have posted hard numbers based on how their guild ranks and it seems that maybe 500 guilds can finish the HAAT.
At a guess, I would say that translates into somewhere around 1% of active players have GK now, and the rate at which that number is going up is almost certainly slowing.
gotta love your made up numbers.
Not sure how you came up with an estimated 5% of players able to farm GK.
so here ill through you some actual numbers. based on the meta report at swhoh.gg
22% of teams in the top 100 use GK, who knows how many other players have him but don't have him geared and/or levelled enough to be arena ready.
the ingame leaderboard shows that at least 200 guilds are finishing heroic. that's a lot more than there where 3 months ago.
you may not be in a guild that can clear heroic tank raid. but don't assume that means not many guilds can.