This dude gets 0 hits in 20 attempts, a .08% chance of that happening, and dudes be like “seems reasonable to me, that’s rng”. People are so delusional lol
Setting aside that to find zero in twenty, you have to fish around the sets that did have hits?
In a game with a six- or seven-digit player base, .08% chances will happen multiple times per day.
The last time I expounded on the discussion to do "long-term" farming statistical research of what shard drop rates are and that someone was planning to do that who was told "don't do that", that thread suddenly disappeared from the forums. I'm sure it was just a bug in the forums though, right?
I'd love to see the statistics from someone who's done long-term farming of shards from nodes to see how each table drops. Like say a year-long examination though. Perhaps someone is doing that very thing? Perhaps they aren't?
By that logic, you should just as easily be able to find a player that gets 20 shards in 20 attempt everyday. But you don’t. And it’s not because people only complain on forums because we both know if someone got 20/20 they would brag about it. But instead you all ignore the fact that players never get large 100% drops but of course it’s xommon every day occurrence to have large 0% drop rates.
...no.
No, that is not how that works.
First of all, a 1/3 chance happening 20 times in a row is orders of magnitude less likely than a 2/3 chance happening that many times in a row. By which I mean precisely 1,048,576 times less likely. Because math.
Second, there is the question of circles. Yes, people may be inclined to share their good fortune at a great role. But with whom, and to what end?
People complaining about a bad string generally seek a platform to rail against CG, and the culture of Reddit and the forums are very conducive to that as well as giving that platform. People celebrating good rolls are more likely to go to a tighter peer group for a round of, "Yay." I know the last time I got a 5/5 drop, I posted that to my guild Discord, not to the forums or Reddit.
Here's another example for you. Carth and Juhani both came out on the same day as farmable. Juhani's on a regular energy node. We've been in both 5 and 8x drop rates since then. I've only done a couple refreshes on each total since they came out. More on Carth though, but I don't know how many for sure (maybe 5 node refreshes).
I currently have 12/100 shards for Juhani. I have 68/85 for Carth. That is a 29 shard difference in less than 3 months. (75ish days?) How's that for a statistic? I'm just really really unlucky on Carth and someone else has him 7* so it evens out in the averages for player total drop rates?
The last time I expounded on the discussion to do "long-term" farming statistical research of what shard drop rates are and that someone was planning to do that who was told "don't do that", that thread suddenly disappeared from the forums. I'm sure it was just a bug in the forums though, right?
I'd love to see the statistics from someone who's done long-term farming of shards from nodes to see how each table drops. Like say a year-long examination though. Perhaps someone is doing that very thing? Perhaps they aren't?
I just don’t understand why low drop rate denial is the hill people die on.
Because the people who can't show statistically significant data to support their position keep putting that position forward as fact rather than feeling.
The last time I expounded on the discussion to do "long-term" farming statistical research of what shard drop rates are and that someone was planning to do that who was told "don't do that", that thread suddenly disappeared from the forums. I'm sure it was just a bug in the forums though, right?
I'd love to see the statistics from someone who's done long-term farming of shards from nodes to see how each table drops. Like say a year-long examination though. Perhaps someone is doing that very thing? Perhaps they aren't?
I just don’t understand why low drop rate denial is the hill people die on.
Because the people who can't show statistically significant data to support their position keep putting that position forward as fact rather than feeling.
You making up **** that isn’t fact does t make it true. People constantly post data, one right above you has numbers over 3 months, I’ve tracked a 9% drop rate in the past. But whenever you guys get face to face with proof you cover your eyes and screech loudly. Your feelings are the irrelevant position here, buddy. Everyone else is discussing why EA is doing what they are very clearly doing with proof and your group jumps in and **** all over it with no basis other than “not muh goh!” I’m done talking to people like you. Keep providing substanceless discussion if you want but I won’t be reading or responding to it.
The numbers posted by Whatelse is meaningless, what he needs to do is record and post daily drop rates for every single day over 75 days, and you will see the true drop rate of that particular node
The last time I expounded on the discussion to do "long-term" farming statistical research of what shard drop rates are and that someone was planning to do that who was told "don't do that", that thread suddenly disappeared from the forums. I'm sure it was just a bug in the forums though, right?
I'd love to see the statistics from someone who's done long-term farming of shards from nodes to see how each table drops. Like say a year-long examination though. Perhaps someone is doing that very thing? Perhaps they aren't?
I just don’t understand why low drop rate denial is the hill people die on.
Because the people who can't show statistically significant data to support their position keep putting that position forward as fact rather than feeling.
You making up **** that isn’t fact does t make it true. People constantly post data, one right above you has numbers over 3 months, I’ve tracked a 9% drop rate in the past. But whenever you guys get face to face with proof you cover your eyes and screech loudly. Your feelings are the irrelevant position here, buddy. Everyone else is discussing why EA is doing what they are very clearly doing with proof and your group jumps in and **** all over it with no basis other than “not muh goh!” The other problem is you people constantly shift the goal post on what you will “allow”. Someone brings up a day of 0 drops? Not good enough, you need more. A solid month of tracking data? Practically nothing so you won’t bother. A year? Well one guy got a 30% drop rate in one attempt so that proves more than your pathetic year of data. It’s always something. Oh just you collected data? If it’s not from 100 clans doing the exact same tracking method it’s not really valid. I’m done talking to people like you. Keep providing substanceless discussion if you want but I won’t be reading or responding to it.
People constantly post small sample sizes and whine about the results.... Look at any eBay or Amazon review..... For every ten that posts a 5*, there will be at least one that posts a one star for a bad experience..... These are the ones most likely to complain...... Confirmation bias....
The last time I expounded on the discussion to do "long-term" farming statistical research of what shard drop rates are and that someone was planning to do that who was told "don't do that", that thread suddenly disappeared from the forums. I'm sure it was just a bug in the forums though, right?
I'd love to see the statistics from someone who's done long-term farming of shards from nodes to see how each table drops. Like say a year-long examination though. Perhaps someone is doing that very thing? Perhaps they aren't?
I just don’t understand why low drop rate denial is the hill people die on.
Because the people who can't show statistically significant data to support their position keep putting that position forward as fact rather than feeling.
You making up **** that isn’t fact does t make it true. People constantly post data, one right above you has numbers over 3 months, I’ve tracked a 9% drop rate in the past. But whenever you guys get face to face with proof you cover your eyes and screech loudly. Your feelings are the irrelevant position here, buddy. Everyone else is discussing why EA is doing what they are very clearly doing with proof and your group jumps in and **** all over it with no basis other than “not muh goh!” I’m done talking to people like you. Keep providing substanceless discussion if you want but I won’t be reading or responding to it.
The numbers posted by Whatelse is meaningless, what he needs to do is record and post daily drop rates for every single day over 75 days, and you will see the true drop rate of that particular node
Unsurprisingly, its a 33% drop rate for Juhani, Carth, Canderous, Bastila Fallen
And if I did 76 days, you'd say "no no no, you need 80 days" and if I did 80 days, you'd say, "no no no you need 90 days!" and so on and so forth. Almost 30 fewer shards in 2.5 months is pretty substantial.
I bet even if I did drop rates for one year, you'd say, "well those were just YOUR results and you didn't track them long enough! Do two years and then you can talk...."
The last time I expounded on the discussion to do "long-term" farming statistical research of what shard drop rates are and that someone was planning to do that who was told "don't do that", that thread suddenly disappeared from the forums. I'm sure it was just a bug in the forums though, right?
I'd love to see the statistics from someone who's done long-term farming of shards from nodes to see how each table drops. Like say a year-long examination though. Perhaps someone is doing that very thing? Perhaps they aren't?
I just don’t understand why low drop rate denial is the hill people die on.
Because the people who can't show statistically significant data to support their position keep putting that position forward as fact rather than feeling.
You making up **** that isn’t fact does t make it true. People constantly post data, one right above you has numbers over 3 months, I’ve tracked a 9% drop rate in the past. But whenever you guys get face to face with proof you cover your eyes and screech loudly. Your feelings are the irrelevant position here, buddy. Everyone else is discussing why EA is doing what they are very clearly doing with proof and your group jumps in and **** all over it with no basis other than “not muh goh!” I’m done talking to people like you. Keep providing substanceless discussion if you want but I won’t be reading or responding to it.
The numbers posted by Whatelse is meaningless, what he needs to do is record and post daily drop rates for every single day over 75 days, and you will see the true drop rate of that particular node
Unsurprisingly, its a 33% drop rate for Juhani, Carth, Canderous, Bastila Fallen
And if I did 76 days, you'd say "no no no, you need 80 days" and if I did 80 days, you'd say, "no no no you need 90 days!" and so on and so forth. Almost 30 fewer shards in 2.5 months is pretty substantial.
I bet even if I did drop rates for one year, you'd say, "well those were just YOUR results and you didn't track them long enough! Do two years and then you can talk...."
No I wouldn't because the numbers would add up, like the multiple people did in that thread
Lets take an educated guess as to why Carth and Juhani, both farmable on the same day, have a difference with Juhani in the lead
Juhani is in 16 Energy Hard Node
Carth is in 20 Energy Fleet Hard Node
You get 540 Energy per day in LS/DS Nodes for free
You get 165 Energy per day in Ship Nodes for free
You cannot sim Carth's node twice a day after every few days, You can sim Juhani's node multiple times a day
I am willing to wager you refreshed Juhani's node more often than Carth's because of the total energy you gained throughout the day
Since you never kept track of how many times each node was refreshed, you just see what's in front of you now (30 shard difference in 2.5 months).
The last time I expounded on the discussion to do "long-term" farming statistical research of what shard drop rates are and that someone was planning to do that who was told "don't do that", that thread suddenly disappeared from the forums. I'm sure it was just a bug in the forums though, right?
I'd love to see the statistics from someone who's done long-term farming of shards from nodes to see how each table drops. Like say a year-long examination though. Perhaps someone is doing that very thing? Perhaps they aren't?
I just don’t understand why low drop rate denial is the hill people die on.
Because the people who can't show statistically significant data to support their position keep putting that position forward as fact rather than feeling.
You making up **** that isn’t fact does t make it true. People constantly post data, one right above you has numbers over 3 months, I’ve tracked a 9% drop rate in the past. But whenever you guys get face to face with proof you cover your eyes and screech loudly. Your feelings are the irrelevant position here, buddy. Everyone else is discussing why EA is doing what they are very clearly doing with proof and your group jumps in and **** all over it with no basis other than “not muh goh!” I’m done talking to people like you. Keep providing substanceless discussion if you want but I won’t be reading or responding to it.
The numbers posted by Whatelse is meaningless, what he needs to do is record and post daily drop rates for every single day over 75 days, and you will see the true drop rate of that particular node
Unsurprisingly, its a 33% drop rate for Juhani, Carth, Canderous, Bastila Fallen
And if I did 76 days, you'd say "no no no, you need 80 days" and if I did 80 days, you'd say, "no no no you need 90 days!" and so on and so forth. Almost 30 fewer shards in 2.5 months is pretty substantial.
I bet even if I did drop rates for one year, you'd say, "well those were just YOUR results and you didn't track them long enough! Do two years and then you can talk...."
No I wouldn't because the numbers would add up, like the multiple people did in that thread
Lets take an educated guess as to why Carth and Juhani, both farmable on the same day, have a difference with Juhani in the lead
Juhani is in 16 Energy Hard Node
Carth is in 20 Energy Fleet Hard Node
You get 540 Energy per day in LS/DS Nodes for free
You get 165 Energy per day in Ship Nodes for free
You cannot sim Carth's node twice a day after every few days, You can sim Juhani's node multiple times a day
I am willing to wager you refreshed Juhani's node more often than Carth's because of the total energy you gained throughout the day
Since you never kept track of how many times each node was refreshed, you just see what's in front of you now (30 shard difference in 2.5 months).
Like I said, CG_Ultra, I refreshed Carth's node maybe 5 times total since he became farmable (including 4 times this weekend, two each day). When their nodes were 8 Sims, I did 8 sims for BOTH of them. Every. Day. I didn't refresh the node daily, like some do. I did the basic 8, or the basic 5 for each. I buy energy refreshes everyday from my arena crystals. Once in a while I had to buy more fleet energy to do the max amount of sims with no 'node' refresh to get Carth. Hopefully that clears up your confusion about how many times a day I did each?
And yes, I KNOW I did the max for each because I really really want Darth Revan the next time he shows up. I might have to start buying shards from the stores for Carth, but not in Panic mode yet. Anything else you're confused by? (And the only thing I farm from fleet nodes besides Carth is ETA2 shards, which has a crahppy drop rate too, but only if I have energy left over when I max out Carth's, which is much easier since everything dropped to 5 sims a day.)
You making up **** that isn’t fact does t make it true. People constantly post data, one right above you has numbers over 3 months, I’ve tracked a 9% drop rate in the past. But whenever you guys get face to face with proof you cover your eyes and screech loudly. Your feelings are the irrelevant position here, buddy. Everyone else is discussing why EA is doing what they are very clearly doing with proof and your group jumps in and **** all over it with no basis other than “not muh goh!” The other problem is you people constantly shift the goal post on what you will “allow”. Someone brings up a day of 0 drops? Not good enough, you need more. A solid month of tracking data? Practically nothing so you won’t bother. A year? Well one guy got a 30% drop rate in one attempt so that proves more than your pathetic year of data. It’s always something. Oh just you collected data? If it’s not from 100 clans doing the exact same tracking method it’s not really valid. I’m done talking to people like you. Keep providing substanceless discussion if you want but I won’t be reading or responding to it.
Randomness is random. The "one right above you" you refer to is not evidence of different drop rates. It's divergence. The longer you're rolling, the higher divergence can get just through random drift.
I just did a very quick experiment. I opened Excel, and input the command, "=if((RANDBETWEEN(1,3)=1),1,0)" which simulates a 1/3 chance of getting 1 shard. I then copied this command six hundred times per column, across ten columns. What this does is give us a simulated result for 90 days of farming at somewhere between 5 and 8 attempts per day. I'm not going back to look up exactly when the shift happened. 5/day would be 450, and 8/day would be 720, so this is somewhere in the middle. I reproduced this across ten columns, and summed each of the ten columns.
The simulated results are as follows:
197 217 205 191 188 175 212 184 194 195
The theoretical average is two hundred. The average of these sets is 195.8. Some did better than 200. Some did worse. None got exactly 200. And despite all having the same odds, the difference between the best and the worst of this narrow set is 37. It happens.
Things like that instance of a 29 shard difference for one person are not meaningful evidence that nodes have different drop rates, or that CG mucks around with the drop rates, or that the drop rate is not one in three. It is a normal, expected phenomenon in a random system.
5 attempts for Hound's tooth, got 2 shards (1 hit)
5 attempts for F.O. Storm Trooper, got 0 shards
5 attempts for Jolee, got 0 shards
5 attempts for Finn, got 2 shards (1 hit)
So, in at least 57 attempts, I yielding 5 shard rewards!!! CG, if you are going to screw us, please be transparent about it! This is the last time I EVER buy an in-app purchase from you.
You forgot to give evidence to them cutting drop rates. Your bad luck is just that. Your bad luck.
I've had to complete opposite outcomes as you, so....
The last time I expounded on the discussion to do "long-term" farming statistical research of what shard drop rates are and that someone was planning to do that who was told "don't do that", that thread suddenly disappeared from the forums. I'm sure it was just a bug in the forums though, right?
I'd love to see the statistics from someone who's done long-term farming of shards from nodes to see how each table drops. Like say a year-long examination though. Perhaps someone is doing that very thing? Perhaps they aren't?
I just don’t understand why low drop rate denial is the hill people die on.
Because the people who can't show statistically significant data to support their position keep putting that position forward as fact rather than feeling.
You making up **** that isn’t fact does t make it true. People constantly post data, one right above you has numbers over 3 months, I’ve tracked a 9% drop rate in the past. But whenever you guys get face to face with proof you cover your eyes and screech loudly. Your feelings are the irrelevant position here, buddy. Everyone else is discussing why EA is doing what they are very clearly doing with proof and your group jumps in and **** all over it with no basis other than “not muh goh!” I’m done talking to people like you. Keep providing substanceless discussion if you want but I won’t be reading or responding to it.
The numbers posted by Whatelse is meaningless, what he needs to do is record and post daily drop rates for every single day over 75 days, and you will see the true drop rate of that particular node
Unsurprisingly, its a 33% drop rate for Juhani, Carth, Canderous, Bastila Fallen
And if I did 76 days, you'd say "no no no, you need 80 days" and if I did 80 days, you'd say, "no no no you need 90 days!" and so on and so forth. Almost 30 fewer shards in 2.5 months is pretty substantial.
I bet even if I did drop rates for one year, you'd say, "well those were just YOUR results and you didn't track them long enough! Do two years and then you can talk...."
It’s what they do. I tracked a 9% drop rate once and I was told it wasn’t valid because I was just one guy and I should get my whole guild to track it if I wanted to have real numbers.
If that’s what “ they “ do, then what you do is just make up nonsense and call it fact. You don’t understand chance and probability. You’re a gamer with nerd rage mad that things aren’t working out for you. Bleed yourself dry on the double drops. Keep refreshing and refreshing , take screen shots of every single one , post them here. If you can’t post the results for everyone else to see as proof then I’m sure you will be dismissed. Even after that , if your 9 percent holds true, you are still a small sample size. Facts and proof my dude. That’s what will change these people’s mind.
It takes a bit to understand RNG and percentages. Every single sim is its own separate roll, independent of any pervious rolls or subsequent rolls. You have a flat percentage rate to win a character or ship shard. And the chance never goes up or down based on any other factors.
5 attempts for Hound's tooth, got 2 shards (1 hit)
5 attempts for F.O. Storm Trooper, got 0 shards
5 attempts for Jolee, got 0 shards
5 attempts for Finn, got 2 shards (1 hit)
So, in at least 57 attempts, I yielding 5 shard rewards!!! CG, if you are going to screw us, please be transparent about it! This is the last time I EVER buy an in-app purchase from you.
Hahah no you're just the unluckiest person playing swgoh apparently. I had a blast during the weekend. Managed to collect over 50 Droideka shards, over 30 B2 shards, some 30 Nihilus shards, and both Carth and Juhani from 4* to more than halfway to 6*. Really it was great.
Replies
Second day: carth 15 times, 8 shards.
In a game with a six- or seven-digit player base, .08% chances will happen multiple times per day.
I'd love to see the statistics from someone who's done long-term farming of shards from nodes to see how each table drops. Like say a year-long examination though. Perhaps someone is doing that very thing? Perhaps they aren't?
No, that is not how that works.
First of all, a 1/3 chance happening 20 times in a row is orders of magnitude less likely than a 2/3 chance happening that many times in a row. By which I mean precisely 1,048,576 times less likely. Because math.
Second, there is the question of circles. Yes, people may be inclined to share their good fortune at a great role. But with whom, and to what end?
People complaining about a bad string generally seek a platform to rail against CG, and the culture of Reddit and the forums are very conducive to that as well as giving that platform. People celebrating good rolls are more likely to go to a tighter peer group for a round of, "Yay." I know the last time I got a 5/5 drop, I posted that to my guild Discord, not to the forums or Reddit.
This, which is approximately as likely as not getting a shard over the course of twenty consecutive attempts, came from the SWGOH Discord yesterday:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/126814946699771908/574483797983363073/image0.png
And it still gets posted on larger venues, like this one from Reddit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/SWGalaxyOfHeroes/comments/bkuve4/i_was_faeming_cad_banes_ship_but_still_thank_yiu/
I currently have 12/100 shards for Juhani. I have 68/85 for Carth. That is a 29 shard difference in less than 3 months. (75ish days?) How's that for a statistic? I'm just really really unlucky on Carth and someone else has him 7* so it evens out in the averages for player total drop rates?
Because the people who can't show statistically significant data to support their position keep putting that position forward as fact rather than feeling.
Like this person did here:
https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/196365/new-old-republic-characters-drop-rates-day-28-completed/p1
Unsurprisingly, its a 33% drop rate for Juhani, Carth, Canderous, Bastila Fallen
People constantly post small sample sizes and whine about the results.... Look at any eBay or Amazon review..... For every ten that posts a 5*, there will be at least one that posts a one star for a bad experience..... These are the ones most likely to complain...... Confirmation bias....
And if I did 76 days, you'd say "no no no, you need 80 days" and if I did 80 days, you'd say, "no no no you need 90 days!" and so on and so forth. Almost 30 fewer shards in 2.5 months is pretty substantial.
I bet even if I did drop rates for one year, you'd say, "well those were just YOUR results and you didn't track them long enough! Do two years and then you can talk...."
Lets take an educated guess as to why Carth and Juhani, both farmable on the same day, have a difference with Juhani in the lead
Juhani is in 16 Energy Hard Node
Carth is in 20 Energy Fleet Hard Node
You get 540 Energy per day in LS/DS Nodes for free
You get 165 Energy per day in Ship Nodes for free
You cannot sim Carth's node twice a day after every few days, You can sim Juhani's node multiple times a day
I am willing to wager you refreshed Juhani's node more often than Carth's because of the total energy you gained throughout the day
Since you never kept track of how many times each node was refreshed, you just see what's in front of you now (30 shard difference in 2.5 months).
Like I said, CG_Ultra, I refreshed Carth's node maybe 5 times total since he became farmable (including 4 times this weekend, two each day). When their nodes were 8 Sims, I did 8 sims for BOTH of them. Every. Day. I didn't refresh the node daily, like some do. I did the basic 8, or the basic 5 for each. I buy energy refreshes everyday from my arena crystals. Once in a while I had to buy more fleet energy to do the max amount of sims with no 'node' refresh to get Carth. Hopefully that clears up your confusion about how many times a day I did each?
And yes, I KNOW I did the max for each because I really really want Darth Revan the next time he shows up. I might have to start buying shards from the stores for Carth, but not in Panic mode yet. Anything else you're confused by? (And the only thing I farm from fleet nodes besides Carth is ETA2 shards, which has a crahppy drop rate too, but only if I have energy left over when I max out Carth's, which is much easier since everything dropped to 5 sims a day.)
I just did a very quick experiment. I opened Excel, and input the command, "=if((RANDBETWEEN(1,3)=1),1,0)" which simulates a 1/3 chance of getting 1 shard. I then copied this command six hundred times per column, across ten columns. What this does is give us a simulated result for 90 days of farming at somewhere between 5 and 8 attempts per day. I'm not going back to look up exactly when the shift happened. 5/day would be 450, and 8/day would be 720, so this is somewhere in the middle. I reproduced this across ten columns, and summed each of the ten columns.
The simulated results are as follows:
197 217 205 191 188 175 212 184 194 195
The theoretical average is two hundred. The average of these sets is 195.8. Some did better than 200. Some did worse. None got exactly 200. And despite all having the same odds, the difference between the best and the worst of this narrow set is 37. It happens.
Things like that instance of a 29 shard difference for one person are not meaningful evidence that nodes have different drop rates, or that CG mucks around with the drop rates, or that the drop rate is not one in three. It is a normal, expected phenomenon in a random system.
You forgot to give evidence to them cutting drop rates. Your bad luck is just that. Your bad luck.
I've had to complete opposite outcomes as you, so....
If that’s what “ they “ do, then what you do is just make up nonsense and call it fact. You don’t understand chance and probability. You’re a gamer with nerd rage mad that things aren’t working out for you. Bleed yourself dry on the double drops. Keep refreshing and refreshing , take screen shots of every single one , post them here. If you can’t post the results for everyone else to see as proof then I’m sure you will be dismissed. Even after that , if your 9 percent holds true, you are still a small sample size. Facts and proof my dude. That’s what will change these people’s mind.
More anecdotal evidence 😀
"Gambler's fallacy."
Hahah no you're just the unluckiest person playing swgoh apparently. I had a blast during the weekend. Managed to collect over 50 Droideka shards, over 30 B2 shards, some 30 Nihilus shards, and both Carth and Juhani from 4* to more than halfway to 6*. Really it was great.