@sneeekypants
Granted, i don't know anything about computer programming. Statistics i know a bit more about, but to be honest, not that much either.
I agree that the chance of getting nothing 10 times is a row is 0,028% (with a 30% droprate). that's once every ~3570 attempts. Now here comes the tricky part, what is 1 attempt? It's either every sim, or all the sims until you find a shard (or 10 times getting nothing). A google search didnt give me the awnser quick enough, so you're gonna have to give an awnser
Anyway, it's either once every ~1070 shards / ~3570 sims or ~3570 shards / ~11900 sims (30% droprate). Considering the amount shards farmed it's not as uncommon as the low percentage makes it seem.
Or i'm completely wrong, feel free to correct me if that's the case.
I break up my sims and get good results. When I sim all energy at once, I get hosed. I do 3 battles at a time, and I usually hit at least 4 shards per reset, much more with double rewards. Try breaking up the RNG so it can't hose you all at once.
@sneeekypants
Granted, i don't know anything about computer programming. Statistics i know a bit more about, but to be honest, not that much either. I agree that the chance of getting nothing 10 times is a row is 0,028% (with a 30% droprate). that's once every ~3570 attempts. Now here comes the tricky part, what is 1 attempt? It's either every sim, or all the sims until you find a shard (or 10 times getting nothing). A google search didnt give me the awnser quick enough, so you're gonna have to give an awnser
Anyway, it's either once every ~1070 shards / ~3570 sims or ~3570 shards / ~11900 sims (30% droprate). Considering the amount shards farmed it's not as uncommon as the low percentage makes it seem.
Or i'm completely wrong, feel free to correct me if that's the case.
It doesn't take too many brain cells or math skills to understand they dynamically change drop rates. Farm attempts are controlled server side which prevents client side manipulation (someone hacking and giving themselves shards, credits or crystals) but also live, dynamic manipulation of economy based on any metric they choose for game or profit.
Some things are obviously possible but are mathematically so improbable that multiple occurances indicate they are changing the probability between attempts. Overall it may average x% but they may decide that too many B2 shards went out this hour so set the drop rate from 0.25 to 0.01 or realize that people are paying big for crystal refreshes when farming X so decrease the drop rate to 0.15 and so forth.
Because it's dynamic, some could be getting different drop rates.
Hey don't publish the rates so they can do anything they want with them for any reason.
Or the droprate isn't changed at all and it's just normal RNG.
It being possible and it actually happening are 2 different things. You'd have to provide some compelling evidence before i start believing it's anything other than just bad luck.
Or a higher being is controlling the drop rate through manipulating entropy. You will have to provide some compelling evidence before I believe your story.
Neither theory has any proof, but one is more likely then the others. Here is a hint: those who deny customers transparency are usually the ones with something to hide.
Seriously? Even if they were transparent about the drop rates I bet people would still doubt them...
@sneeekypants
Granted, i don't know anything about computer programming. Statistics i know a bit more about, but to be honest, not that much either. I agree that the chance of getting nothing 10 times is a row is 0,028% (with a 30% droprate). that's once every ~3570 attempts. Now here comes the tricky part, what is 1 attempt? It's either every sim, or all the sims until you find a shard (or 10 times getting nothing). A google search didnt give me the awnser quick enough, so you're gonna have to give an awnser
Anyway, it's either once every ~1070 shards / ~3570 sims or ~3570 shards / ~11900 sims (30% droprate). Considering the amount shards farmed it's not as uncommon as the low percentage makes it seem.
Or i'm completely wrong, feel free to correct me if that's the case.
Horrible drop rate here as well. I've spent at least 4 refreshes farming IGD and have gotten 4 shards. So only 2 drops out of 20 or 30(I spent all my cantina energy as well). And the gear I was farming in Darkside has been the same way.
@sneeekypants
Granted, i don't know anything about computer programming. Statistics i know a bit more about, but to be honest, not that much either.
I agree that the chance of getting nothing 10 times is a row is 0,028% (with a 30% droprate). that's once every ~3570 attempts. Now here comes the tricky part, what is 1 attempt? It's either every sim, or all the sims until you find a shard (or 10 times getting nothing). A google search didnt give me the awnser quick enough, so you're gonna have to give an awnser
Anyway, it's either once every ~1070 shards / ~3570 sims or ~3570 shards / ~11900 sims (30% droprate). Considering the amount shards farmed it's not as uncommon as the low percentage makes it seem.
Or i'm completely wrong, feel free to correct me if that's the case.
An attempt is one sim. You can have a dynamic drop rate and still average 30%, in short it has to average something and it can coincidentally be 30% or be dynamically adjusted so in a large sample set it's roughly 30%.
Nowadays analytics is everywhere in business to maximize revenue and margins. Any large platform is going to analyze data sets and looks for ways to improve their performance metrics. It was actually an interview question I had before, "Give me an example where you have used data sets to make a decision which bettered the company".
If my yearly bonus was dependent on revenue goals, you can bet I would telling people to look at the data and looks for ways to increase margins. There's nothing nefarious about it. EA is a public company, they are interested in maximum profits, not game design. Amazon does takes it to stratospheric levels which would scare most people.
Without publicizing probabilities, they can do anything they feel is better financially.
There are many places in the game which are supposed to be "random" which don't behave that way either due to a bug or adjustments for one reason or another like an arena toon having 2% dodge but actually dodging closer to 30% or fixing a toons "random" triple hit probabilities.
Look how uneven assist attacks are.
Ever wonder how GW you can keep backing out and redo it but get the exact same "random" result? It's due to a static number list with an identical seed. If you back out of a raid attack, they are reseeding it.
It's all I'm going to say about it but 20 years in the biz tells me that "RNG" isn't really as random as they would like you to believe and their "ai" isn't really intelligent, it's a string of basic conditionals. Basic AI would be more like a decision tree that nodes can dynamically change based on previous actions and results. That's where the "intelligent" comes from, it learns from mistakes. It's just a game and they don't advertise it as AI, it's just a personal issue when I see people call it "AI".
Like how other games have double xp all rewards from cantina missions provide double what they normally do. You get more credits, training droids, character shards, etc... Now I actually think the drop rates are static. I have been playing this game since launch and count my drop rates every few weeks. For me it averages out to a 1/3 chance at getting the character shards even now during the double drops. Either way the bonus credits, droids, and ability mats are very nice.
I think the droprate is a little lower than 30%. Maybe 20%. If we assume the chances are 30% and you sim 10 times. The chance you will get nothing is .7^10(70% to the tenth power. That chance for nothing after 10 sims would be 8.23%. I dont buy that.
Consider the rate is 20%. The chance you get nothing after 10 tries is .8^10. Which is 10.74%. That still seems lower than the reality. But for my sanity Im telling myself its 20%.
240 energy and I get 2 lousy shards... normal drops yesterday, today 0. That's the thing about "rng", they can easily minipulate the drops during these events and most ppl will excuse it away to bad rng. I don't care what ppl say, they def minipulate these rates. Normal 1 day so you waste a bunch of crystals the next. This is done to make you feel like you're missing out and therefor make you spend even more crystals. This is the last straw for me, 1 less paying customer.
Replies
Granted, i don't know anything about computer programming. Statistics i know a bit more about, but to be honest, not that much either.
I agree that the chance of getting nothing 10 times is a row is 0,028% (with a 30% droprate). that's once every ~3570 attempts. Now here comes the tricky part, what is 1 attempt? It's either every sim, or all the sims until you find a shard (or 10 times getting nothing). A google search didnt give me the awnser quick enough, so you're gonna have to give an awnser
Anyway, it's either once every ~1070 shards / ~3570 sims or ~3570 shards / ~11900 sims (30% droprate). Considering the amount shards farmed it's not as uncommon as the low percentage makes it seem.
Or i'm completely wrong, feel free to correct me if that's the case.
Tuesday the 20th.
Rewards for, in this case, Cantina battles are doubled. Where you would normally get a chance at one shard, now if it drops you get two, etc.
1 sim or battle is an attempt.
Wow, I was just thinking about that comic strip as I read this. I'm happy to see it here
Seriously? Even if they were transparent about the drop rates I bet people would still doubt them...
24 or so of TFP from 4 refreshes here......
Did the exact same thing. I got 10 though
You are correct, that was my mistake
An attempt is one sim. You can have a dynamic drop rate and still average 30%, in short it has to average something and it can coincidentally be 30% or be dynamically adjusted so in a large sample set it's roughly 30%.
Nowadays analytics is everywhere in business to maximize revenue and margins. Any large platform is going to analyze data sets and looks for ways to improve their performance metrics. It was actually an interview question I had before, "Give me an example where you have used data sets to make a decision which bettered the company".
If my yearly bonus was dependent on revenue goals, you can bet I would telling people to look at the data and looks for ways to increase margins. There's nothing nefarious about it. EA is a public company, they are interested in maximum profits, not game design. Amazon does takes it to stratospheric levels which would scare most people.
Without publicizing probabilities, they can do anything they feel is better financially.
There are many places in the game which are supposed to be "random" which don't behave that way either due to a bug or adjustments for one reason or another like an arena toon having 2% dodge but actually dodging closer to 30% or fixing a toons "random" triple hit probabilities.
Look how uneven assist attacks are.
Ever wonder how GW you can keep backing out and redo it but get the exact same "random" result? It's due to a static number list with an identical seed. If you back out of a raid attack, they are reseeding it.
It's all I'm going to say about it but 20 years in the biz tells me that "RNG" isn't really as random as they would like you to believe and their "ai" isn't really intelligent, it's a string of basic conditionals. Basic AI would be more like a decision tree that nodes can dynamically change based on previous actions and results. That's where the "intelligent" comes from, it learns from mistakes. It's just a game and they don't advertise it as AI, it's just a personal issue when I see people call it "AI".
Like how other games have double xp all rewards from cantina missions provide double what they normally do. You get more credits, training droids, character shards, etc... Now I actually think the drop rates are static. I have been playing this game since launch and count my drop rates every few weeks. For me it averages out to a 1/3 chance at getting the character shards even now during the double drops. Either way the bonus credits, droids, and ability mats are very nice.
Consider the rate is 20%. The chance you get nothing after 10 tries is .8^10. Which is 10.74%. That still seems lower than the reality. But for my sanity Im telling myself its 20%.
Today, I have spent 100 crystals and l get 0 shards l am so sad