On top of that you've nerfed rancor and haat rewards so we have a significantly smaller chance to earn fully crafted pieces (fact and don't challenge me in that).
"I have absolutely no evidence to corroborate this claim, and am aware of this, so I am declaring a rule against calling me out on it."
In 2.5 years I've almost never missed a single rancor or haat and I can tell you I've seen a tremendous decline in fully crafted pieces which coincides with the addition of TB and guild event store in the game.
You may claim that it's just RNG and I just happened to have an insane streak of RNG ever since TB came into the game but that simply sounds insane and highly less probable than the devs lowering drop rates to prevent gear overflow due to added events. You can keep making ridiculous claims like the one you made above to somehow dismiss me as crazy but that only make you look like you're trying too hard to defend the developers.
It’s actually more likely that you were on a lucky streak before and this is reversion to the mean.
But sure, people who want actual data over your feelings are the ones making ridiculous claims.
Hmm you actually believe in luck? My feelings have nothing to do with it, rather observations. I have observed a massive difference in drops which coincides with the introduction of TB. I'm sorry but I won't miss the forest looking for the tree like you do. The coincidence is far too suspicious to be coincidental. The motives are perfectly clear and the fact the devs aren't obligated to disclose anything only adds to my case
Do I believe in luck? What’s there to believe in? I guess you are making some sort of weird semantic argument but I’m not even sure what it is. If somebody got 20m credits from credit heist I call that person lucky. What do you call him?
@jkray622 "very small sample set"? So a 15 month long observation is a small sample set? Average a rancor per day and a haat every 3 days over the course of 15 months. Let's do the math, 15*30.5= 457.5 so let's say 458 days. That's 226 rancors and 152.666 haats. Let's reduce those numbers to account for not earning perfect tickets, so let's say 200 rancors and 145 haats. That's 345 raids, do you still think that's a small sample set? If so then this means we can't possibly EVER prove anything which means we can't challenge our overlords which means we just take whatever they throw at us because testing for drop changes using sample sets over 10,000+ would literally take decades and we will be dead by then. In which case I'll consider my 345 raid over 1& month sample a pretty satisfying sample set
Are you saying that in 345 raids you had 0 fully crafted gear? All I see is nonsense numbers thrown about with approximations "lets say..." um no. I want the exact number of raids, exact number of drops, gear pieces etc.
and lets not forget about ranking in the raid for those drops
First try satire to point out how ridiculous he was.
Second try logic.
Third, give up because he either can't or is unwilling to understand.
Nobody gave up, I just don't have superhuman typing powers and I can't keep track with 3 people throwing stuff at me at the same time. Do I have recorded data? NO.
But that's just simply absurd, with how raid tickets work i am limited to a raid every 2 and 3 days. By the time I have enough recorded data it would literally years which defeats the point and that's the loophole that all of you are currently exploiting. Under your way of thinking the devs are GODS who can do whatever they please and we have no possible way of challenging their creation because we simply don't have enough time to collect enough evidence
First try satire to point out how ridiculous he was.
Second try logic.
Third, give up because he either can't or is unwilling to understand.
Nobody gave up, I just don't have superhuman typing powers and I can't keep track with 3 people throwing stuff at me at the same time. Do I have recorded data? NO.
But that's just simply absurd, with how raid tickets work i am limited to a raid every 2 and 3 days. By the time I have enough recorded data it would literally years which defeats the point and that's the loophole that all of you are currently exploiting. Under your way of thinking the devs are GODS who can do whatever they please and we have no possible way of challenging their creation because we simply don't have enough time to collect enough evidence
First try satire to point out how ridiculous he was.
Second try logic.
Third, give up because he either can't or is unwilling to understand.
Nobody gave up, I just don't have superhuman typing powers and I can't keep track with 3 people throwing stuff at me at the same time. Do I have recorded data? NO.
But that's just simply absurd, with how raid tickets work i am limited to a raid every 2 and 3 days. By the time I have enough recorded data it would literally years which defeats the point and that's the loophole that all of you are currently exploiting. Under your way of thinking the devs are GODS who can do whatever they please and we have no possible way of challenging their creation because we simply don't have enough time to collect enough evidence
Then don't claim FACTS. That's the "entire point I'm trying to make." You're literally making stuff up based on your opinion.
@jkray622 "very small sample set"? So a 15 month long observation is a small sample set? Average a rancor per day and a haat every 3 days over the course of 15 months. Let's do the math, 15*30.5= 457.5 so let's say 458 days. That's 226 rancors and 152.666 haats. Let's reduce those numbers to account for not earning perfect tickets, so let's say 200 rancors and 145 haats. That's 345 raids, do you still think that's a small sample set? If so then this means we can't possibly EVER prove anything which means we can't challenge our overlords which means we just take whatever they throw at us because testing for drop changes using sample sets over 10,000+ would literally take decades and we will be dead by then. In which case I'll consider my 345 raid over 1& month sample a pretty satisfying sample set
Are you saying that in 345 raids you had 0 fully crafted gear? All I see is nonsense numbers thrown about with approximations "lets say..." um no. I want the exact number of raids, exact number of drops, gear pieces etc.
and lets not forget about ranking in the raid for those drops
Find one quote of mine where I said "I've never earned fully crafted gear". I've actually stated 2-3 times already that I have earned multiple fully crafted pieces, just far less frequently than before TB
First try satire to point out how ridiculous he was.
Second try logic.
Third, give up because he either can't or is unwilling to understand.
Nobody gave up, I just don't have superhuman typing powers and I can't keep track with 3 people throwing stuff at me at the same time. Do I have recorded data? NO.
But that's just simply absurd, with how raid tickets work i am limited to a raid every 2 and 3 days. By the time I have enough recorded data it would literally years which defeats the point and that's the loophole that all of you are currently exploiting. Under your way of thinking the devs are GODS who can do whatever they please and we have no possible way of challenging their creation because we simply don't have enough time to collect enough evidence
One person's observation of a few drops per week over a period of time is not enough to draw an irrefutable conclusion.
You can "challenge the devs" and say you "believe" it's changed. But you can't say you "know" that it's a "fact."
It absolutely could be true - but right now you don't have enough data to make that conclusion. I'm not saying there was or wasn't a nerf - because I don't have enough data to conclude either way.
I'm just pointing out that you don't either, and your arbitrary statement to the contrary is ridiculous.
First try satire to point out how ridiculous he was.
Second try logic.
Third, give up because he either can't or is unwilling to understand.
Nobody gave up, I just don't have superhuman typing powers and I can't keep track with 3 people throwing stuff at me at the same time. Do I have recorded data? NO.
But that's just simply absurd, with how raid tickets work i am limited to a raid every 2 and 3 days. By the time I have enough recorded data it would literally years which defeats the point and that's the loophole that all of you are currently exploiting. Under your way of thinking the devs are GODS who can do whatever they please and we have no possible way of challenging their creation because we simply don't have enough time to collect enough evidence
Then don't claim FACTS. That's the "entire point I'm trying to make." You're literally making stuff up based on your opinion.
But under your logic nothing can be a fact, everything could be on a long lasting STREAK and we just happened to observe and record it during the streak but months or years from now the streak could end therefore altering our facts.
I am simply saying that although this could be a streak, there's a strong motive behind it which greatly reduces the possibility of it being a coincidence
One person's observation of a few drops per week over a period of time is not enough to draw an irrefutable conclusion.
You can "challenge the devs" and say you "believe" it's changed. But you can't say you "know" that it's a "fact."
It absolutely could be true - but right now you don't have enough data to make that conclusion. I'm not saying there was or wasn't a nerf - because I don't have enough data to conclude either way.
I'm just pointing out that you don't either, and your arbitrary statement to the contrary is ridiculous.
So what's your proposition to find the truth since observation isn't good enough for you and without engaging in year long data collection which defeats the purpose of doing it?
Gravity is actually just an artificial construction from an invisible alien ship parked in the center of the planet, slightly out-of-phase with our reality so it can't be detected. (fact and don't challenge me on that).
On top of that you've nerfed rancor and haat rewards so we have a significantly smaller chance to earn fully crafted pieces (fact and don't challenge me in that).
I am simply saying that although this could be a streak, there's a strong motive behind it which greatly reduces the possibility of it being a coincidence
See the difference between these two statements? Your second one is not what you originally said. If you had said your updated statement at first, I would have never commented.
Uhh that's not how it works buddy, if the sky one day turned yellow and I observed the color change for 15 months but never took any pictures or gave you any recorded data of it would that make the claim invalid?
If you want to prove something about drop rates you engage in a group effort with a lot of other players to track everyone’s data over a period of time. People have actually done this with respect to node drop rates. People are doing it right now for credit heists - there’s a thread on reddit every time for people to list their results, which can then be aggregated until it reaches a significant number of data points.
On top of that you've nerfed rancor and haat rewards so we have a significantly smaller chance to earn fully crafted pieces (fact and don't challenge me in that).
I am simply saying that although this could be a streak, there's a strong motive behind it which greatly reduces the possibility of it being a coincidence
See the difference between these two statements? Your second one is not what you originally said. If you had said your updated statement at first, I would have never commented.
I guess I set up myself for failure there but then again you know what could solve all of this? The devs making an official statement. An innocent person wants to prove their innocence, I would expect CG to say that they never altered the drop rates to accommodate for the increase in events
Uhh that's not how it works buddy, if the sky one day turned yellow and I observed the color change for 15 months but never took any pictures or gave you any recorded data of it would that make the claim invalid?
We are all looking at the same sky so that's not how it works either.
On top of that you've nerfed rancor and haat rewards so we have a significantly smaller chance to earn fully crafted pieces (fact and don't challenge me in that).
I am simply saying that although this could be a streak, there's a strong motive behind it which greatly reduces the possibility of it being a coincidence
See the difference between these two statements? Your second one is not what you originally said. If you had said your updated statement at first, I would have never commented.
I guess I set up myself for failure there but then again you know what could solve all of this? The devs making an official statement. An innocent person wants to prove their innocence, I would expect CG to say that they never altered the drop rates to accommodate for the increase in events
They don't usually address baseless accusations though.
On top of that you've nerfed rancor and haat rewards so we have a significantly smaller chance to earn fully crafted pieces (fact and don't challenge me in that).
I am simply saying that although this could be a streak, there's a strong motive behind it which greatly reduces the possibility of it being a coincidence
See the difference between these two statements? Your second one is not what you originally said. If you had said your updated statement at first, I would have never commented.
I guess I set up myself for failure there but then again you know what could solve all of this? The devs making an official statement. An innocent person wants to prove their innocence, I would expect CG to say that they never altered the drop rates to accommodate for the increase in events
They might say that if enough people accuse them of changing it. If nobody is accusing them of a change, then there would be no need to make a statement.
So it's cool for you to say you think the drop rates were nerfed. I don't think they were, but I don't have enough data to conclude either way. I can't refute the fact that you believe they were nerfed.
And if they were, and you champion a higher drop rate, then more power to you! I love Carbanti, and I'm choked to death on them right now post-Ewok & C3PO....
(right now I'm refreshing my stocks through the guild store, GET store, and shard shop, but it's never fast enough).
The simplest solution would be for the devs to come out at make an official statement that drop rates for rancor or haat have never been altered but their inability to do so I beyond fishy to me. @CG_SBCrumb care to weigh in?
A clear sky doesn't fear lightnings, if the devs are not guilty of altering drop rates then they would be eager to come out with a statement to prove their innocence.
Really? They'd have to spend their entire workday on the forum "proving their innocence" every time some forumite with a "feeling" posted some theory.
Not to mention, when it comes to conspiracy thought, any answer at all (or even silence) will just be spun to prove the accuser's point.
You need to back up your claims with hard data. As of now you don’t have any. Make a spreadsheet of your drops. Make a spreadsheet of the drops from let’s say last year and compare it to now.
It’s all RNG. You haven’t been saying your nightly prayer to RNGesus so he hasn’t been visiting you. Don’t make such bold claims without hard data. You can say that stun guns rarely drop. That’s more accurate. But to say “CG nerfed pit rewards!” Well...there’s no proof
Yes. All I see is a rough estimation of how many raids you've done. I see nothing that indicates you tracked what you've actually gotten.
Human beings are very good at noticing patterns
This is actually true, except that we're so hard-wired to pick out patterns and trends that we see them where none exist, particularly when said nonexistent patterns can be said to somehow victimize us: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negativity_bias
My observation of the Rancor raid is that the drop rate of Mk V Fusion Furnace salvage is 100%. Every time. I have hundreds of the stupid things.
The reality is that they have roughly the same drop rate as everything else, I just notice it because I get them often and I emphatically don't need them. It's a negative outcome, so it sticks out in my head.
The simplest solution would be for the devs to come out at make an official statement that drop rates for rancor or haat have never been altered but their inability to do so I beyond fishy to me. @CG_SBCrumb care to weigh in?
A clear sky doesn't fear lightnings, if the devs are not guilty of altering drop rates then they would be eager to come out with a statement to prove their innocence.
They don't need to make any such statement because nobody else is out there accusing them of stealth-nerfing drop rates to an old raid. And if they took the time to respond every time some random ding-**** decided the game was rigged against them, they'd never get anything else done.
Replies
Do I believe in luck? What’s there to believe in? I guess you are making some sort of weird semantic argument but I’m not even sure what it is. If somebody got 20m credits from credit heist I call that person lucky. What do you call him?
and lets not forget about ranking in the raid for those drops
Nobody gave up, I just don't have superhuman typing powers and I can't keep track with 3 people throwing stuff at me at the same time. Do I have recorded data? NO.
But that's just simply absurd, with how raid tickets work i am limited to a raid every 2 and 3 days. By the time I have enough recorded data it would literally years which defeats the point and that's the loophole that all of you are currently exploiting. Under your way of thinking the devs are GODS who can do whatever they please and we have no possible way of challenging their creation because we simply don't have enough time to collect enough evidence
Then don't claim FACTS. That's the "entire point I'm trying to make." You're literally making stuff up based on your opinion.
Find one quote of mine where I said "I've never earned fully crafted gear". I've actually stated 2-3 times already that I have earned multiple fully crafted pieces, just far less frequently than before TB
I NEVER SAID FEELINGS, I said observations
You can "challenge the devs" and say you "believe" it's changed. But you can't say you "know" that it's a "fact."
It absolutely could be true - but right now you don't have enough data to make that conclusion. I'm not saying there was or wasn't a nerf - because I don't have enough data to conclude either way.
I'm just pointing out that you don't either, and your arbitrary statement to the contrary is ridiculous.
But under your logic nothing can be a fact, everything could be on a long lasting STREAK and we just happened to observe and record it during the streak but months or years from now the streak could end therefore altering our facts.
I am simply saying that although this could be a streak, there's a strong motive behind it which greatly reduces the possibility of it being a coincidence
Thank you!
Thread can now be closed.
So what's your proposition to find the truth since observation isn't good enough for you and without engaging in year long data collection which defeats the purpose of doing it?
Yer so unedumicated. The world is flat dupid. Lol
See the difference between these two statements? Your second one is not what you originally said. If you had said your updated statement at first, I would have never commented.
Uhh that's not how it works buddy, if the sky one day turned yellow and I observed the color change for 15 months but never took any pictures or gave you any recorded data of it would that make the claim invalid?
I guess I set up myself for failure there but then again you know what could solve all of this? The devs making an official statement. An innocent person wants to prove their innocence, I would expect CG to say that they never altered the drop rates to accommodate for the increase in events
We are all looking at the same sky so that's not how it works either.
They don't usually address baseless accusations though.
If they did, would you believe them?
They might say that if enough people accuse them of changing it. If nobody is accusing them of a change, then there would be no need to make a statement.
So it's cool for you to say you think the drop rates were nerfed. I don't think they were, but I don't have enough data to conclude either way. I can't refute the fact that you believe they were nerfed.
And if they were, and you champion a higher drop rate, then more power to you! I love Carbanti, and I'm choked to death on them right now post-Ewok & C3PO....
(right now I'm refreshing my stocks through the guild store, GET store, and shard shop, but it's never fast enough).
Really? They'd have to spend their entire workday on the forum "proving their innocence" every time some forumite with a "feeling" posted some theory.
Not to mention, when it comes to conspiracy thought, any answer at all (or even silence) will just be spun to prove the accuser's point.
You need to back up your claims with hard data. As of now you don’t have any. Make a spreadsheet of your drops. Make a spreadsheet of the drops from let’s say last year and compare it to now.
It’s all RNG. You haven’t been saying your nightly prayer to RNGesus so he hasn’t been visiting you. Don’t make such bold claims without hard data. You can say that stun guns rarely drop. That’s more accurate. But to say “CG nerfed pit rewards!” Well...there’s no proof
This is actually true, except that we're so hard-wired to pick out patterns and trends that we see them where none exist, particularly when said nonexistent patterns can be said to somehow victimize us: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negativity_bias
My observation of the Rancor raid is that the drop rate of Mk V Fusion Furnace salvage is 100%. Every time. I have hundreds of the stupid things.
The reality is that they have roughly the same drop rate as everything else, I just notice it because I get them often and I emphatically don't need them. It's a negative outcome, so it sticks out in my head.
They don't need to make any such statement because nobody else is out there accusing them of stealth-nerfing drop rates to an old raid. And if they took the time to respond every time some random ding-**** decided the game was rigged against them, they'd never get anything else done.