I have a strategy that works for me. I wait til I get a character shard drop on a free pull then spend down and usually end up with quite a few shards, I stop spending down when I have pulled 5 times with no shards. This morning following that strat I got a full teebo (25), 2 shards of something else and 5 other single shards for around 10k all points. I have also gone to bronzium when something good showed in the shop and I was broke. If nothing drops in first 5 pulls I quit and revisit later.
I know I just opened myself to rebuffs from statisticians, but I think the store has cycles of shards available and shards denied.
You are both right and the problem is the interpretation of the phrase "chance of shards". One poster is saying it means the chance of owning a particular shard and the other is using it to mean odds on a pull.
The more spins you take increase the possibility of you having copies of the shards. The chance of obtaining a shard per pull doesn't change, but the possibility to you owning any of the shards goes up with the amount of pulls you have done.
This, odds of obtaining a shard PER PULL (1/10) doesn't change, but odds of pulling a shard on at least one of those pulls is 1-(0.9)*(0.9)=0.19.
You aren't guaranteed a shard for 10 pulls (1-0.9^10=0.65) but of course your odds of getting at least 1 go up; there are more ways (chances) to obtain shards even though the probability per pull is the same (1/10).
If I bought enough lottery tickets to have every permutation of numbers, sure, I'd win. But depending on how many permutations there are and how much a ticket costs, that's probably not worth it. For example, if I draw five numbers from a pool of 69 white balls, and then I get a red ball numbered 1-26, and each ticket costs $2, that's $70,128,321,120. I'm not sure all the payouts add to that much. Also, if I had in excess of $70 billion, I wouldn't be buying lottery tickets.
The more spins you take increase your chance of shards. The large bundles are meant to be character unlocks.
Have the devs said this anywhere? Because I have this to be completely untrue. I’ve spent upwards of 100-150k on bronziums in a row many many times and my character pulls have been slim to none.
Thats how odds work. The more tries the better chance of getting something worth while. And of course it involves rng. If I buy enough lottery tickets im sure to win on one, may not be the best winner.
That’s not how it works here. Every character pull has a set percentage for a drop rate. If (hypothetically) the drop rate is 10%, it’s 1/10 across each pull. Yeah, if you spend 10 pulls you have a better chance of getting MORE shards because you’re buying more, your odds don’t increase to 100% just because you bought 10. The lottery analogy isn’t appropriate because there’s a finite amount of lottery tickets sold, so you do increase your chances with each ticket. There’s infinite bronziums in this game, so your drop rate per pull is still the same.
Unless I’m misunderstanding what you’re saying, it seems like you’re saying the more you pull, the higher the drop rate becomes, which isn’t true.
The lottery analogy is correct.... Since when is there a finite number of lottery tickets sold?....
When they stop selling them before the drawing.
Huh?..... That's a raffle, not a lottery.....lotteries like Powerball etc do not have limited tickets.. .
They stop selling tickets for a drawing before the drawing happens, otherwise people could watch the drawing and then go buy tickets for that drawing.
Sure...... But the tix are unlimited before that...... Not sure why why you want to argue semantics.....
It's very simple....
The more 7* bronzium toons you have, the greater your chance of getting a full toon pull
The more points you spend to spin the wheel, the greater your chances of getting shards....
It's not rocket surgery.....
That’s true, but that’s not what he’s saying. He’s saying the bronziums you spend at one time, you increase your chances for a toon pull. That’s not how it works. Each pull has its own flat chance and it doesn’t increase that drop rate just because you pulled more than 1.
Thats what you believe I’m saying...
Its very simple
A: pull bronzium once, record number of shards collected.
B: pull bronzium 1000 times, record number of shards collected.
If B is greater than A then yes more pulls gets you more shards.
That is what you said, “The more spins you take increase your chance of shards. The large bundles are meant to be character unlocks.”
Not that you get more shards pulling more cards, but that you *increase chances* of shards. There’s an difference.
But whatever, I’m over this thread.
If he said it increases the drop rate i could see why you want to correct him, but you are either being really argumentive because of a slight ambiguity or you genuinely didn't understand and thought he was stupid.
Yes the drop rate will never change. But B will nearly always beat A for greater number of shards . Hence the whole " the more spins you take increases your chances of shards". Chance being a synonym of likely ,definitely more likely to see a shared with 200 pulls to 2 .
You are both right and the problem is the interpretation of the phrase "chance of shards". One poster is saying it means the chance of owning a particular shard and the other is using it to mean odds on a pull.
The more spins you take increase the possibility of you having copies of the shards. The chance of obtaining a shard per pull doesn't change, but the possibility to you owning any of the shards goes up with the amount of pulls you have done.
This, odds of obtaining a shard PER PULL (1/10) doesn't change, but odds of pulling a shard on at least one of those pulls is 1-(0.9)*(0.9)=0.19.
You aren't guaranteed a shard for 10 pulls (1-0.9^10=0.65) but of course your odds of getting at least 1 go up; there are more ways (chances) to obtain shards even though the probability per pull is the same (1/10).
If I bought enough lottery tickets to have every permutation of numbers, sure, I'd win. But depending on how many permutations there are and how much a ticket costs, that's probably not worth it. For example, if I draw five numbers from a pool of 69 white balls, and then I get a red ball numbered 1-26, and each ticket costs $2, that's $70,128,321,120. I'm not sure all the payouts add to that much. Also, if I had in excess of $70 billion, I wouldn't be buying lottery tickets.
Maybe you can get a loan.
Buy all the tickets from Apu.
Replies
I know I just opened myself to rebuffs from statisticians, but I think the store has cycles of shards available and shards denied.
This, odds of obtaining a shard PER PULL (1/10) doesn't change, but odds of pulling a shard on at least one of those pulls is 1-(0.9)*(0.9)=0.19.
You aren't guaranteed a shard for 10 pulls (1-0.9^10=0.65) but of course your odds of getting at least 1 go up; there are more ways (chances) to obtain shards even though the probability per pull is the same (1/10).
If I bought enough lottery tickets to have every permutation of numbers, sure, I'd win. But depending on how many permutations there are and how much a ticket costs, that's probably not worth it. For example, if I draw five numbers from a pool of 69 white balls, and then I get a red ball numbered 1-26, and each ticket costs $2, that's $70,128,321,120. I'm not sure all the payouts add to that much. Also, if I had in excess of $70 billion, I wouldn't be buying lottery tickets.
If he said it increases the drop rate i could see why you want to correct him, but you are either being really argumentive because of a slight ambiguity or you genuinely didn't understand and thought he was stupid.
Yes the drop rate will never change. But B will nearly always beat A for greater number of shards . Hence the whole " the more spins you take increases your chances of shards". Chance being a synonym of likely ,definitely more likely to see a shared with 200 pulls to 2 .
I've been playing for 2 years now and I've probably had two dozen 80-shard pulls, and maybe triple that in 50-shard pulls.
Maybe you can get a loan.
Buy all the tickets from Apu.