I’ve started monitoring drop rates of char/ship shards since December 31st, 2018, and I’ve observed an average drop rate of 34.6%. Not all farms share that rate and some are more lucrative than others.
I started tracking my Vet Chewie drop rate a couple of weeks ago, and I tally the total daily. I always thought the 16 cantina energy nodes "seem" to have a low drop rate, and the Vets go on "forever," so I decided to collect the data to see what it actually says:
Note: I sim anywhere between 3-10 cantina battles at a time. Nothing less or more since I started this data tracking.
As of today, 1/26/19: 61 shards out of 180 battles simmed = 33.89%.
That rumored 33% drop rate is right in line with my data. After I get the final 65 shards I need for Vet Chewie I'll have the final numbers.
Technically speaking, it is 100% possible for EA to meddle with your drop rate, earse your account data, or penalize ur RNG in Tenacity Evasion Crit test in Arena. But that doesn't mean EA actually does it, or has a motive to do it.
If OP and his son were both F2P, why would EA leave OP's son out of penalizing target, assuming EA actually penalizes F2P.
If OP's son were a P2P whale, EA might be tempted to penalize F2P, but EA is already doing it with Gear progress, TB Platoons, HSTR, etc, so EA won't dare take a risk of RNG meddling, as it can result in lawsuits and all.
Maybe OP was way too unlucky, or OP's son spent more crystals to compensate low log in frequency.
30% drop rate? Utter rubbish. How many times I have spent 160 energy and gotten 1 or 0 character shards... The best would be 2 or 3 out of 8 but that is occasional not every time. It is blatantly arbitrary.
Of course this 30% is crap.
This RNG game mechanics is crap.
One of the reasons I left.
Even if on average it is 33%. For specific player it can be less or higher, depends on pure luck.
Even if average for player is 33% it can be 20% for gear you wanted for your most wanted char and 40% for your secondary.
I wished everything was given set amount of resources with costs recalculated accordingly. This approach rewards time spent and doesn't frustrate.
30% drop rate? Utter rubbish. How many times I have spent 160 energy and gotten 1 or 0 character shards... The best would be 2 or 3 out of 8 but that is occasional not every time. It is blatantly arbitrary.
Go on then, how many times?
The people reporting 30-33% have recorded actual data, not just spurious claims.
I've been tracking drop rates for some of my recent farms. Also, I know a bit about statistics. After over 1400 battles, the data shows with 95% confidence that the drop rate is between 29% and 34%. So, there is nothing here to suggest anything other than a 33% drop rate. This is summing data across 3 farms.
Here is the data for three farms--hard node, cantina, and fleet. I've shown the observed drop rate and the confidence interval (think of it as the uncertainty) for each farm.
Note that each of the three, as well as the overall, include 33% with the uncertainty range. That means there is nothing here to suggest that the actual drop rate is anything other than 33%. Also notice that the confidence intervals get smaller the more data you have. It takes a LOT of data to get an accurate fix on the drop rate. Conversely, if you are only looking at a little data, it is easy to get way more or way less than 33%.
One last point, it is human nature to think that the drop rate is low. Doing sims 8 at a time, you would expect to get 3 shards. If you get less you feel bad, if you get more you feel good. With a 33% drop rate, pure RNG says you will only see 3 shards about a quarter of the time. And you are twice as likely to get a bad result (2 or fewer) than you are to get a good one (4 or more). No wonder we all feel screwed!
This chart shows the actual shard drops from 69 8 roll sims for BSF compared to what one expects based on RNG alone. It tracks pretty well, don't you think? I got more twos than I would've expected. But fewer 0's and 1's.
Replies
Discord: Iona Starbound#5299
Can you link CG official explanation?
Note: I sim anywhere between 3-10 cantina battles at a time. Nothing less or more since I started this data tracking.
As of today, 1/26/19: 61 shards out of 180 battles simmed = 33.89%.
That rumored 33% drop rate is right in line with my data. After I get the final 65 shards I need for Vet Chewie I'll have the final numbers.
If OP and his son were both F2P, why would EA leave OP's son out of penalizing target, assuming EA actually penalizes F2P.
If OP's son were a P2P whale, EA might be tempted to penalize F2P, but EA is already doing it with Gear progress, TB Platoons, HSTR, etc, so EA won't dare take a risk of RNG meddling, as it can result in lawsuits and all.
Maybe OP was way too unlucky, or OP's son spent more crystals to compensate low log in frequency.
This RNG game mechanics is crap.
One of the reasons I left.
Even if on average it is 33%. For specific player it can be less or higher, depends on pure luck.
Even if average for player is 33% it can be 20% for gear you wanted for your most wanted char and 40% for your secondary.
I wished everything was given set amount of resources with costs recalculated accordingly. This approach rewards time spent and doesn't frustrate.
Go on then, how many times?
The people reporting 30-33% have recorded actual data, not just spurious claims.
Kakaka
Telegram @Kakakawakaka
https://swgoh.gg/u/kakakawakaka/
Código aliado 192-195-873
https://swgoh.gg/g/516/global-elite-games/
Here is the data for three farms--hard node, cantina, and fleet. I've shown the observed drop rate and the confidence interval (think of it as the uncertainty) for each farm.
Note that each of the three, as well as the overall, include 33% with the uncertainty range. That means there is nothing here to suggest that the actual drop rate is anything other than 33%. Also notice that the confidence intervals get smaller the more data you have. It takes a LOT of data to get an accurate fix on the drop rate. Conversely, if you are only looking at a little data, it is easy to get way more or way less than 33%.
One last point, it is human nature to think that the drop rate is low. Doing sims 8 at a time, you would expect to get 3 shards. If you get less you feel bad, if you get more you feel good. With a 33% drop rate, pure RNG says you will only see 3 shards about a quarter of the time. And you are twice as likely to get a bad result (2 or fewer) than you are to get a good one (4 or more). No wonder we all feel screwed!
This chart shows the actual shard drops from 69 8 roll sims for BSF compared to what one expects based on RNG alone. It tracks pretty well, don't you think? I got more twos than I would've expected. But fewer 0's and 1's.