I’ve had a roughly 11% drop rate for the month of april on cantina. So far that’s 19 days worth of data. You telling me I’m going to make up the other 19% in 11 days? Because that’s not happening.
Why would you think the drop rates averages respect arbitrary time windows such as one month?
If you continue to play and track your drop rates forever you will eventually see them settle around 33%.
I’ve had a roughly 11% drop rate for the month of april on cantina. So far that’s 19 days worth of data. You telling me I’m going to make up the other 19% in 11 days.
No, because a single month by 1 person is not a significant sample size.
And. "roughly" is not tracking. At best its guestimating. When I say tracking, I mean individuals or guilds who have used spreadsheets to record every attempt and result for months. And it always comes to 30-33%. For 3+ years. Every. Time.
No, CG didn't suddenly nerf drop rates. No, CG doesn't secretly hate you. No CG doesn't change drop rates when events are going on. Actual recorded data has proven that repeatedly. CG has also stated as such.
For those who still want to argue based on extremely limited, anecdotal "evidence", please at least learn what variance is and understand what constitutes a significant sample size. Some of you would make horrible scientists and even worse mathematicians.
In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie
In game guild: TNR Uprising I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
I’ve had a roughly 11% drop rate for the month of april on cantina. So far that’s 19 days worth of data. You telling me I’m going to make up the other 19% in 11 days.
No, because a single month by 1 person is not a significant sample size.
And. "roughly" is not tracking. At best its guestimating. When I say tracking, I mean individuals or guilds who have used spreadsheets to record every attempt and result for months. And it always comes to 30-33%. For 3+ years. Every. Time.
No, CG didn't suddenly nerf drop rates. No, CG doesn't secretly hate you. No CG doesn't change drop rates when events are going on. Actual recorded data has proven that repeatedly. CG has also stated as such.
For those who still want to argue based on extremely limited, anecdotal "evidence", please at least learn what variance is and understand what constitutes a significant sample size. Some of you would make horrible scientists and even worse mathematicians.
First of all, when I say roughly, I mean I don’t feel like putting the 11.52% that I calculated it too. Secondly, you don’t get to shift the goalposts and change around the requirements of the data so that you are satisfied. 3 weeks of data is a good range for determining an average, sorry if you don’t feel like accepting that. Dropping the rates during critical points to push players to spend money, then raising the drop rates in off seasons or on useless characters is not balanced RNG, that is predatory tactics. EA is a predatory company that uses predatory tactics. You and a handful of others denying that doesn’t change facts. Get over it and stop trying to beat people down by claiming reality isn’t what it is.
Your right - despite not providing any actual data or understanding sample size, variance, confidence factors or anything about that which you are complaining.
I give up. Hope the tinfoil hat fits well.
In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie
In game guild: TNR Uprising I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
I’ve had a roughly 11% drop rate for the month of april on cantina. So far that’s 19 days worth of data. You telling me I’m going to make up the other 19% in 11 days.
No, because a single month by 1 person is not a significant sample size.
And. "roughly" is not tracking. At best its guestimating. When I say tracking, I mean individuals or guilds who have used spreadsheets to record every attempt and result for months. And it always comes to 30-33%. For 3+ years. Every. Time.
No, CG didn't suddenly nerf drop rates. No, CG doesn't secretly hate you. No CG doesn't change drop rates when events are going on. Actual recorded data has proven that repeatedly. CG has also stated as such.
For those who still want to argue based on extremely limited, anecdotal "evidence", please at least learn what variance is and understand what constitutes a significant sample size. Some of you would make horrible scientists and even worse mathematicians.
First off, I put 11% because I didn’t feel like putting the 11.52whatever that it calculated out to. Second, you don’t get to continue shifting the goal posts and changing the required time someone should record data. 3 weeks is sufficient time to calculate an average, sorry if you don’t like that. Third, lowering the drop rate of a critical character at a critical time has the intention of pressuring players to spend money. Raising drop rates during non critical times or of non-critical players so that everything averages out in the long run is not balanced RNG, it is predatory development. EA is a predatory company that uses predatory tactics and has 100% earned their title of Worst Company in America (two years in a row by the way). So hem and haw and deny all you want. You and the handful of others who feel like reality denial is a solution to problems won’t change the fact that things are what they are.
What are you farming in cantina right now that’s currently in a “critical time”? I wasn’t aware of this being a critical time for any farming anywhere in the game.
People who don’t understand statistics and base their opinions on feelings instead of data also won’t change the fact that things are what they are.
EA [...] earned their title of Worst Company in America (two years in a row by the way).
Are you referencing the title granted to them by the now defunct Consumerist web site? Titles granted to them in 2012 and 2013? I'm not saying they've gotten better but to bring this up in a debate seems dubious at best. I'd bet that PG&E, Purdue Pharma, Wells Fargo, and Facebook would beat them out in a more recent poll.
Back on topic: what goal posts shifted? Who prescribed the one month window for drop rates?
What are you farming in cantina right now that’s currently in a “critical time”? I wasn’t aware of this being a critical time for any farming anywhere in the game.
People who don’t understand statistics and base their opinions on feelings instead of data also won’t change the fact that things are what they are.
Critical toons and times are toons required for events leading up to when the event starts. My numbers come from farming mission for the revan event starting at the end of April, and others have made similar claims about drop rates lowering the month before an event.
Lol you think they are worried about people that are still farming for the third iteration of an event for a character that’s been out for 6 months?
I’m well aware that others have made similar claims. That nonsense gets posted here all the time and is never backed up by actual data.
Are you referencing the title granted to them by the now defunct Consumerist web site? Titles granted to them in 2012 and 2013? I'm not saying they've gotten better but to bring this up in a debate seems dubious at best. I'd bet that PG&E, Purdue Pharma, Wells Fargo, and Facebook would beat them out in a more recent poll.
Back on topic: what goal posts shifted? Who prescribed the one month window for drop rates?
No, I was looking at USA Today. Granted they are no longer too, in 2018 they were 5th worst behind University of Phoenix, the NFL, Fox, and Equifax.
Can't find anything from USA Today for 2017, nevermind 2016, that might support your two years in a row claim. Making things up really doesn't strengthen any argument you're trying to make. And in addition to doing nothing for your argument, it opens you up to straw man attacks (which are already way too numerous in these forums).
First off, I put 11% because I didn’t feel like putting the 11.52whatever that it calculated out to. Second, you don’t get to continue shifting the goal posts and changing the required time someone should record data. 3 weeks is sufficient time to calculate an average, sorry if you don’t like that. Third, lowering the drop rate of a critical character at a critical time has the intention of pressuring players to spend money. Raising drop rates during non critical times or of non-critical players so that everything averages out in the long run is not balanced RNG, it is predatory development. EA is a predatory company that uses predatory tactics and has 100% earned their title of Worst Company in America (two years in a row by the way). So hem and haw and deny all you want. You and the handful of others who feel like reality denial is a solution to problems won’t change the fact that things are what they are.
We're aware of the conspiracy theory.
Nobody has ever actually provided properly tracked, statistically significant data to support what you're saying.
Many tests have been done, over many periods of time. They have never indicated what you suggest. That's not being in denial. That's math.
There are always conspiracy theorists saying CG stealth lowers drop rates because EA is evil. But never any good, solid data for it. Yet there is often good data for the consistent 1/3. Three weeks from one person, a three figure data set, is not enough to debunk the five, six, seven figure data sets saying it's one in three.
The only "data" we've seen has dubious recording and no number of attempts attached.
I’ve had a roughly 11% drop rate for the month of april on cantina. So far that’s 19 days worth of data. You telling me I’m going to make up the other 19% in 11 days? Because that’s not happening.
Statistics do not normalize, least of all over narrow time frames. They dilute, over extended periods of time. A one in three chance is a one in three chance. Which means in a relatively narrow span- like three weeks- it absolutely can roll worse than one in three, because it's random and every roll is independent.
Galaxy of Heroes uses actual randomness. (Or pseudorandomness, as there is no true random number generator, but close enough for government work.) Actual randomness feels nonrandom to humans, partly because we biologically suck at statistics, and partly because a lot of games do not use actual randomness. They use self-normalizing randomness or they're non-random. So if you miss, your odds of hitting next time go up to force you back to the designated 33%, or if you act, a bar behind the scenes increments 33% so that you'll get the event one time in three. Either because true randomness feels wrong to humans, or simply generates a less stable and more scummable play state than the designers would prefer.
Galaxy of Heroes does not do that. And yes, it feels wrong. Because dice are not predictable in the way we want them to be.
An update 3 days later. I've been keeping exact track of what i've been getting. I did my first set for sunday 4/21, and since i've been keeping track, i'm 4/55 on badstilla, 2/25 on carth, and 2/20 on juhani. Coincidentally that adds up to exactly 100 sims, from which i've gotten 8 shards. 8 lousy percent.
I can understand one off day, but to have a run of days this bad is ludicrous. And this is just since i started keeping track of it to prove to myself I wasn't imagining things. It was like that for several days before i started keeping track.
It seriously has me considering just quitting the game entirely. If they're going to cripple the drop rates that bad, then why would i bother? I'm averaging less than a shard a day on everyone. We can round that up to 1, and i'm still not going to spend another 6 months getting the 140 - 160ish remaining shards i need for each of them.
I got 0 shards for Jango yesterday and today as well as 0 Wicket shards today and 0 shards for Embo something definitely is up that has never happened to me before it's ****
Exactly. This is how RNG works: You always get the average shards and you never get a run of bad luck. Lots of shards? You got good luck. No shards? Obviously a conspiracy to change the drop rate without telling anyone, because what is RNG if not completely, utterly dependable?
I mean, that complete dependability in providing minimum rewards is why they call it RNG, right?
That would imply that on average, for every 0/5 set you get, you'll get a 2/5 at some point to make up for that. You know how many of those i've gotten since the "change"? Zero. I had tough runs when it was 8 per day (not including refreshes), but generally it got made up for (conveniently after i buy additional sets of sims for crystals). Since the change, that has not happened. I'd literally have to get 40 of my next 100 just to come close to getting back to 25%. I'm relatively certain that will not happen.
I'm not the only guild member who has noticed this. I've seen this comment from at least 7 to 8 people who are farming for darth revan.
You telling me I’m going to make up the other 19% in 11 days? Because that’s not happening.
Correct. Dice have no memory. Your next 100 attempts are highly likely to drop 25-38 shards no matter what happened in your last hundred attempts. RNG does not "make up for" fewer drops than you expected. Nor does it penalize you for a run of good luck. It's R. N. G.
I haven’t kept track at all because I accept the accepted drop rates but I do notice unusual instances like going 5/5, 4/5 and 3/5 on BSF in the last 3 days.
Can't find anything from USA Today for 2017, nevermind 2016, that might support your two years in a row claim. Making things up really doesn't strengthen any argument you're trying to make. And in addition to doing nothing for your argument, it opens you up to straw man attacks (which are already way too numerous in these forums).
It’s not my fault you’re too lazy to do a google search.
I can play that game too.
I did a Google search. Nothing came up. Therefore you're clearly to lazy to do proper research and are using information from 6 years ago. This makes me believe that you're to lazy to properly track stats too and are just throwing around numbers that support how you "feel" your experience is going.
What kind of **** looks at hundreds of people making the same claim and discredits every one of them in favor of a handful of people that claim they have tracked it? Your denial is strong.
Hundreds of people in a game with a six or seven figure playerbase, for a game that's been around for over three years.
Part of true randomness is, if you roll enough, unlikely events will happen. If there are a million players, odds are somebody is having that one in a million improbably bad week. Guess who's more likely to post about it?
Anecdotes are not evidence. Especially since frustration warps memory. You tend to round down in your head a lot when you're frustrated at a streak and thinking back.
Keep in mind that, pure math, with a 1/3 chance to get a shard and 5 attempts, it comes out to about a 50/50 chance of getting 0 or 1 shards. And about another 1/3 chance of 2 shards, with the remaining 1/6 being 3 or more. Getting 0 or 1 shards is just losing a coin toss.
You're trying to force a conspiracy narrative when all that's happening is normal.
Can't find anything from USA Today for 2017, nevermind 2016, that might support your two years in a row claim. Making things up really doesn't strengthen any argument you're trying to make. And in addition to doing nothing for your argument, it opens you up to straw man attacks (which are already way too numerous in these forums).
It’s not my fault you’re too lazy to do a google search.
I can play that game too.
I did a Google search. Nothing came up. Therefore you're clearly to lazy to do proper research and are using information from 6 years ago. This makes me believe that you're to lazy to properly track stats too and are just throwing around numbers that support how you "feel" your experience is going.
Given you can’t string together a logica thought, it makes sense you can’t google either. So here http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Ea+worst+company+in+america go ahead and click and feel free to browse any of the many articles that discuss ea being a **** company. I’m done with you now, I don’t have the energy anymore to explain basic thought process to someone too ignorant to learn.
Thanks for proving my point. None of the top 5 are in the last 3 years. And the ones that are more recent talk about EA being "among the most hated". Nothing about two years running or whatever you claimed. Stick with your made up facts. You're great with them.
On topic: I had 4/5 drops today and yesterday. Clearly drop rates have been buffed.
Replies
Why would you think the drop rates averages respect arbitrary time windows such as one month?
If you continue to play and track your drop rates forever you will eventually see them settle around 33%.
And. "roughly" is not tracking. At best its guestimating. When I say tracking, I mean individuals or guilds who have used spreadsheets to record every attempt and result for months. And it always comes to 30-33%. For 3+ years. Every. Time.
No, CG didn't suddenly nerf drop rates. No, CG doesn't secretly hate you. No CG doesn't change drop rates when events are going on. Actual recorded data has proven that repeatedly. CG has also stated as such.
For those who still want to argue based on extremely limited, anecdotal "evidence", please at least learn what variance is and understand what constitutes a significant sample size. Some of you would make horrible scientists and even worse mathematicians.
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
I give up. Hope the tinfoil hat fits well.
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
What are you farming in cantina right now that’s currently in a “critical time”? I wasn’t aware of this being a critical time for any farming anywhere in the game.
People who don’t understand statistics and base their opinions on feelings instead of data also won’t change the fact that things are what they are.
Are you referencing the title granted to them by the now defunct Consumerist web site? Titles granted to them in 2012 and 2013? I'm not saying they've gotten better but to bring this up in a debate seems dubious at best. I'd bet that PG&E, Purdue Pharma, Wells Fargo, and Facebook would beat them out in a more recent poll.
Back on topic: what goal posts shifted? Who prescribed the one month window for drop rates?
Lol you think they are worried about people that are still farming for the third iteration of an event for a character that’s been out for 6 months?
I’m well aware that others have made similar claims. That nonsense gets posted here all the time and is never backed up by actual data.
Can't find anything from USA Today for 2017, nevermind 2016, that might support your two years in a row claim. Making things up really doesn't strengthen any argument you're trying to make. And in addition to doing nothing for your argument, it opens you up to straw man attacks (which are already way too numerous in these forums).
Nobody has ever actually provided properly tracked, statistically significant data to support what you're saying.
Many tests have been done, over many periods of time. They have never indicated what you suggest. That's not being in denial. That's math.
There are always conspiracy theorists saying CG stealth lowers drop rates because EA is evil. But never any good, solid data for it. Yet there is often good data for the consistent 1/3. Three weeks from one person, a three figure data set, is not enough to debunk the five, six, seven figure data sets saying it's one in three.
The only "data" we've seen has dubious recording and no number of attempts attached. Statistics do not normalize, least of all over narrow time frames. They dilute, over extended periods of time. A one in three chance is a one in three chance. Which means in a relatively narrow span- like three weeks- it absolutely can roll worse than one in three, because it's random and every roll is independent.
Galaxy of Heroes uses actual randomness. (Or pseudorandomness, as there is no true random number generator, but close enough for government work.) Actual randomness feels nonrandom to humans, partly because we biologically suck at statistics, and partly because a lot of games do not use actual randomness. They use self-normalizing randomness or they're non-random. So if you miss, your odds of hitting next time go up to force you back to the designated 33%, or if you act, a bar behind the scenes increments 33% so that you'll get the event one time in three. Either because true randomness feels wrong to humans, or simply generates a less stable and more scummable play state than the designers would prefer.
Galaxy of Heroes does not do that. And yes, it feels wrong. Because dice are not predictable in the way we want them to be.
I can understand one off day, but to have a run of days this bad is ludicrous. And this is just since i started keeping track of it to prove to myself I wasn't imagining things. It was like that for several days before i started keeping track.
It seriously has me considering just quitting the game entirely. If they're going to cripple the drop rates that bad, then why would i bother? I'm averaging less than a shard a day on everyone. We can round that up to 1, and i'm still not going to spend another 6 months getting the 140 - 160ish remaining shards i need for each of them.
That would imply that on average, for every 0/5 set you get, you'll get a 2/5 at some point to make up for that. You know how many of those i've gotten since the "change"? Zero. I had tough runs when it was 8 per day (not including refreshes), but generally it got made up for (conveniently after i buy additional sets of sims for crystals). Since the change, that has not happened. I'd literally have to get 40 of my next 100 just to come close to getting back to 25%. I'm relatively certain that will not happen.
I'm not the only guild member who has noticed this. I've seen this comment from at least 7 to 8 people who are farming for darth revan.
Coming onto the forums and seeing other people who have had bad luck is not evidence.
Correct. Dice have no memory. Your next 100 attempts are highly likely to drop 25-38 shards no matter what happened in your last hundred attempts. RNG does not "make up for" fewer drops than you expected. Nor does it penalize you for a run of good luck. It's R. N. G.
I can play that game too.
I did a Google search. Nothing came up. Therefore you're clearly to lazy to do proper research and are using information from 6 years ago. This makes me believe that you're to lazy to properly track stats too and are just throwing around numbers that support how you "feel" your experience is going.
Part of true randomness is, if you roll enough, unlikely events will happen. If there are a million players, odds are somebody is having that one in a million improbably bad week. Guess who's more likely to post about it?
Anecdotes are not evidence. Especially since frustration warps memory. You tend to round down in your head a lot when you're frustrated at a streak and thinking back.
Keep in mind that, pure math, with a 1/3 chance to get a shard and 5 attempts, it comes out to about a 50/50 chance of getting 0 or 1 shards. And about another 1/3 chance of 2 shards, with the remaining 1/6 being 3 or more. Getting 0 or 1 shards is just losing a coin toss.
You're trying to force a conspiracy narrative when all that's happening is normal.
Thanks for proving my point. None of the top 5 are in the last 3 years. And the ones that are more recent talk about EA being "among the most hated". Nothing about two years running or whatever you claimed. Stick with your made up facts. You're great with them.
On topic: I had 4/5 drops today and yesterday. Clearly drop rates have been buffed.