So sick of rigged drop rates

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I have been with this game from the very beginning. Im trying to very very hard to like this game. And i really want to. BUT.... Grinding for what equals to YEARS to get a toon to 7* is absolutely ridiculous and un called for. Ive been keeping track everyday of my drops and this is the **** i have been given.

50 days straight in Fleet 5A hard trying to get Shaak Ti. I started keeping track 50 days ago. 50 days times 5 per day is 250 attempts. Thats 250 possible shards. Ive gotten 17. 17 days I got 1 shard and the other 33 i got zero. This is total crap EA. ****?!?! If getting 2, 3,4 or 5 shards is 100% completely and totally impossible than getting 0 should be as well. At this drop rate it should take me roughly close to 2 years to get her to 7. Nope. Not going to happen. I refuse to grind for that ****. Thats not a grind, its purposely rigged stupidity.

Light side 8B hard. Going after the Driodeka. 30 days, 5 attempts per day. Possible 150 shards. Ive gotten 8. Never more than 1 in a single day.

Darkside 7A hard trying for Bastila Fallen. Again 30 days 5 tries per day. 150 possible shards Ive gotten 4. FOUR!!!

At these drop rates it will literally take me YEARS to grind these to 7 stars. I refuse to do that. I refuse to spend another cent on this game until this is looked at. I do not expect 330 shards in the first 5 days. No. I do expect some sort of grind. But this is just pay to win ignorance. Purposely making abysmal drop rates so ill spend money to get the character faster.

Gear is even worse. Tell me why do ALL toons require the exact same gear ? I have hundreds of pieces of gear that i have 10s of thousands of because they go to NO ONE. Yet somehow someway a ewok attacker, sith tank, rebel support, jedi healer and so on all require the exact same gear despite having no where near the same properties. How about rotating the gear in the challenges. In all those challenges there only 1 piece of gear that i dont have at least 7k of. How about rotating the gear that drops in these so we have a chance to get what we need. You know like the 750 pieces of salvage it takes to get a team 1 piece of gear a piece because they all require the exact same crap.

Last time they did double shard drops, in cantina I did one mission 200 times trying to get B2 droid shards on 6D. In those 200 attempts I got 6. I gave up. I almost quit the game right then and there. There is simply zero excuse for that crap.

I will listen and try to respond to intelligent replies but i will refuse to get into name calling arguments with the EA apologists who have their mommies credit card and love to bash people who bash their precious EA. Thank you. sorry this is so long.

Replies

  • DadKev
    314 posts Member
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    Yeah that's a bummer RNG. Sorry mate. Yeah I got 70-80 shards of those toons with similar number of attempts.
  • Sewpot
    2010 posts Member
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    https://swgoh.gg/p/673588219/gl-gear-needed/

    You want to really cry use this and then come back here and post your feeling lol
  • ImaSmakya
    1068 posts Member
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    While I don’t agree with this in general, I have had farms that definitely seemed more frustrating than others, juhani, b1 and wicket in particular for me. BSF was actually quite a quick farm for me.

    Were they actually different over the long haul? Probably not, but that didn’t decrease the level of frustration any.
    https://swgoh.gg/p/319514721/
    DISCLAIMER: Post is subject to change.
  • Saada
    664 posts Member
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    I agree with the percentage. If it's a 1% chance or there abouts to get 5/5 then it should be the same to get 0/5. Then atleast every 5 turns everyone would get at minimum 1 shard or if you didn't you would be pretty much guaranteed the next round of 5.
    And I still reckon there's some code built in that if you are searching for shards or gear and are close 98/100 or 48/50 for gear, the percentage drops. I needed 2 pieces of g12+ gear, used 10 attempts get 0, refresh 10 attempts 0, refresh 10 attempts 1, refresh 10 attempts 0, end up refreshing using 200 crystals, 10 attempts drops 3. Happened so many times, it can't just be a coincidence but you'll get the pain in the **** ones who'll say, where's the proof, keep track etc etc but save it guys, I don't want a response either just giving my honest opinion to this post. Just my gut feel....
  • Options
    Regarding the gear question: I don't know exactly why all characters require the same gear, but I expect it is meant to slow you down and encourage you to buy gear packs and crystal refreshes to speed things along. Yes most of the Challenge gear is redundant, but that's what we get. Remember when Mk 6 hypo syringes were in short supply? At least the challenge gear has helped there.

    Shard farming is often frustrating. Sounds like you are having a rough go, but over time it will even out to somewhere very close to 33%. After this much time (since launch) you should be used to it. I tracked Shaak Ti and Droideka farming here and found ~33% over the long haul:
    https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/213406/shaak-ti-shard-farming-253-755-33-5-7-update-bonus-droideka-xanadu-and-b1/p1

    It will turn around for you. Well ... probably.
  • Lysandrax
    1127 posts Member
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    Yeah, i don't believe any of these numbers.

    Try refreshing nodes though, more attempts, more made up results :)
  • Options
    Drop rates are 33%. That is both a stated dev fact and community proven. I have personally tracked over 10K in battles on diferent nodes. So either you have had horrible RNG or your data is flawed.

    250 or 150 battles is still a relatively small sample size.

    If you are only doing free hard nodes and not refreshing for crystals, you are in for a 180 day grind (6 months) on average if you start at 3 star (meaning you need 300 shards). If it is a critical farm, you should refresh at least once, if not twice. It is still economical and drastically reduces farm time.
    Do or Do not.

    DarthBarron (Kevin, aka KevWalker)
  • MaruMaru
    3338 posts Member
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    On a %33=1/3 chance getting 5 in a row is 1/243, getting 0 5 times is 32/243. Merely how probability works and why 0 in 5 times vs. 5 in 5 can't be equal. If you want them to be equal the droprate would have to be %50.
  • Ultra
    11502 posts Moderator
    edited March 2020
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    50 days straight in Fleet 5A hard trying to get Shaak Ti. I started keeping track 50 days ago. 50 days times 5 per day is 250 attempts. Thats 250 possible shards. Ive gotten 17.
    5elzg1o85umi.jpeg

    Stopped reading after this point

    Post your tracked data
  • Jarvind
    3926 posts Member
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    50 days straight in Fleet 5A hard trying to get Shaak Ti. I started keeping track 50 days ago. 50 days times 5 per day is 250 attempts. Thats 250 possible shards. Ive gotten 17. 17 days I got 1 shard and the other 33 i got zero. This is total crap EA. ****?!?! If getting 2, 3,4 or 5 shards is 100% completely and totally impossible than getting 0 should be as well. At this drop rate it should take me roughly close to 2 years to get her to 7. Nope. Not going to happen. I refuse to grind for that ****. Thats not a grind, its purposely rigged stupidity.

    Light side 8B hard. Going after the Driodeka. 30 days, 5 attempts per day. Possible 150 shards. Ive gotten 8. Never more than 1 in a single day.

    Darkside 7A hard trying for Bastila Fallen. Again 30 days 5 tries per day. 150 possible shards Ive gotten 4. FOUR!!!

    I'm calling shenanigans on all these numbers. The chances of your RNG being this bad range into the billions to one.

    Post your data.
    u58t4vkrvnrz.png



  • Saada
    664 posts Member
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    MaruMaru wrote: »
    On a %33=1/3 chance getting 5 in a row is 1/243, getting 0 5 times is 32/243. Merely how probability works and why 0 in 5 times vs. 5 in 5 can't be equal. If you want them to be equal the droprate would have to be %50.

    You could scale the other results so that the average would still be 1/3 (in terms of a 5 attempt scale). 1% for 0, 60% for 1 20% for 2 etc ( this is just made up since I can't be bothered to do the maths) but they can definitely have an average drop rate of 1/3 while lowering the percentage of 0 occurring.

    But argue.....cause I know you will
  • MaruMaru
    3338 posts Member
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    Saada wrote: »
    MaruMaru wrote: »
    On a %33=1/3 chance getting 5 in a row is 1/243, getting 0 5 times is 32/243. Merely how probability works and why 0 in 5 times vs. 5 in 5 can't be equal. If you want them to be equal the droprate would have to be %50.

    You could scale the other results so that the average would still be 1/3 (in terms of a 5 attempt scale). 1% for 0, 60% for 1 20% for 2 etc ( this is just made up since I can't be bothered to do the maths) but they can definitely have an average drop rate of 1/3 while lowering the percentage of 0 occurring.

    But argue.....cause I know you will

    You know me? Oh ok.
  • leef
    13458 posts Member
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    I will listen and try to respond to intelligent replies but i will refuse to get into name calling arguments with the EA apologists who have their mommies credit card and love to bash people who bash their precious EA.

    This would have been so much better if you didn't resort to calling others "EA apologists who have their mommies credit card" even before someone replied to your questionable numbers.
    Save water, drink champagne!
  • Gifafi
    6017 posts Member
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    Saada wrote: »
    MaruMaru wrote: »
    On a %33=1/3 chance getting 5 in a row is 1/243, getting 0 5 times is 32/243. Merely how probability works and why 0 in 5 times vs. 5 in 5 can't be equal. If you want them to be equal the droprate would have to be %50.

    You could scale the other results so that the average would still be 1/3 (in terms of a 5 attempt scale). 1% for 0, 60% for 1 20% for 2 etc ( this is just made up since I can't be bothered to do the maths) but they can definitely have an average drop rate of 1/3 while lowering the percentage of 0 occurring.

    But argue.....cause I know you will

    "Made up numbers" should be the title of this thread. Also, if anyone knows how I can get mommy's credit card to use for swgoh stuff please lmk asap! Finna kraken
    Maybe End Game isn't for you
  • Options
    Saada wrote: »
    I agree with the percentage. If it's a 1% chance or there abouts to get 5/5 then it should be the same to get 0/5. Then atleast every 5 turns everyone would get at minimum 1 shard or if you didn't you would be pretty much guaranteed the next round of 5.

    Sadly this isn't how math and probablilities work.

    The chances of not getting a shard is [1-drop rate]^[number of attempts], or 0.66^5

    The chances of getting a 5/5 pull is [drop rate]^[number of attempts], so 0.33^5

    The only way to get them equal would be to up the drop rate to .5, and that would massively change the game economy and likely lead to a reduction in attempts available.
    Looking for a new guild? Come check out the Underworld Alliance on Discord:https://discord.gg/wvrYb4Q
  • Saada
    664 posts Member
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    Saada wrote: »
    I agree with the percentage. If it's a 1% chance or there abouts to get 5/5 then it should be the same to get 0/5. Then atleast every 5 turns everyone would get at minimum 1 shard or if you didn't you would be pretty much guaranteed the next round of 5.

    Sadly this isn't how math and probablilities work.

    The chances of not getting a shard is [1-drop rate]^[number of attempts], or 0.66^5

    The chances of getting a 5/5 pull is [drop rate]^[number of attempts], so 0.33^5

    The only way to get them equal would be to up the drop rate to .5, and that would massively change the game economy and likely lead to a reduction in attempts available.

    Geeze. If you skew the results the drop rate can still be a third.

    1% 0
    60% 1
    20% 2
    12% 3
    6% 4
    1% 5

    Gives an average drop rate of 1.65 out of every 5 attempts which in turn is almost a third.....
  • Saada
    664 posts Member
    edited March 2020
    Options
    If you write on 100 bits of paper:
    0 down once, 1 60 times, 2 20 times etc (as above) and then conduct an experiment by drawing a hundred numbers with replacement and keeping track and averaging them out you'll see that I'm right.
  • leef
    13458 posts Member
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    Saada wrote: »
    Saada wrote: »
    I agree with the percentage. If it's a 1% chance or there abouts to get 5/5 then it should be the same to get 0/5. Then atleast every 5 turns everyone would get at minimum 1 shard or if you didn't you would be pretty much guaranteed the next round of 5.

    Sadly this isn't how math and probablilities work.

    The chances of not getting a shard is [1-drop rate]^[number of attempts], or 0.66^5

    The chances of getting a 5/5 pull is [drop rate]^[number of attempts], so 0.33^5

    The only way to get them equal would be to up the drop rate to .5, and that would massively change the game economy and likely lead to a reduction in attempts available.

    Geeze. If you skew the results the drop rate can still be a third.

    1% 0
    60% 1
    20% 2
    12% 3
    6% 4
    1% 5

    Gives an average drop rate of 1.65 out of every 5 attempts which in turn is almost a third.....

    So what happens if you do 1 sim?
    Save water, drink champagne!
  • Options
    Saada wrote: »
    Saada wrote: »
    I agree with the percentage. If it's a 1% chance or there abouts to get 5/5 then it should be the same to get 0/5. Then atleast every 5 turns everyone would get at minimum 1 shard or if you didn't you would be pretty much guaranteed the next round of 5.

    Sadly this isn't how math and probablilities work.

    The chances of not getting a shard is [1-drop rate]^[number of attempts], or 0.66^5

    The chances of getting a 5/5 pull is [drop rate]^[number of attempts], so 0.33^5

    The only way to get them equal would be to up the drop rate to .5, and that would massively change the game economy and likely lead to a reduction in attempts available.

    Geeze. If you skew the results the drop rate can still be a third.

    1% 0
    60% 1
    20% 2
    12% 3
    6% 4
    1% 5

    Gives an average drop rate of 1.65 out of every 5 attempts which in turn is almost a third.....

    so you want to get rid of drop rates? What you posted is not a "drop rate", aka the chances of success on an attempt for a character shard. What happens when you want to sim 3 at a time?
    Looking for a new guild? Come check out the Underworld Alliance on Discord:https://discord.gg/wvrYb4Q
  • Saada
    664 posts Member
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    I put forward an option for 5 sims..... this whole idea was an idea not arguing what was happening. You guys said it's wrong etc so I just wanted to show it's possible. If they put it out that if you complete 5 sims and this was the possibilities. It still keeps the one third drop rate with a lower chance if getting 0 shards.
  • Options
    Saada wrote: »
    I put forward an option for 5 sims..... this whole idea was an idea not arguing what was happening. You guys said it's wrong etc so I just wanted to show it's possible. If they put it out that if you complete 5 sims and this was the possibilities. It still keeps the one third drop rate with a lower chance if getting 0 shards.

    My question still stands: how do you extrapolate it to different number of sims?

    Of course it is possible to give a set of outcomes and apply probabilities to them such that the end result is what you want, but that is completely changing the system (and making it no longer a "drop rate").

    Looking for a new guild? Come check out the Underworld Alliance on Discord:https://discord.gg/wvrYb4Q
  • DarthBarron
    339 posts Member
    edited March 2020
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    Saada wrote: »
    I put forward an option for 5 sims..... this whole idea was an idea not arguing what was happening. You guys said it's wrong etc so I just wanted to show it's possible. If they put it out that if you complete 5 sims and this was the possibilities. It still keeps the one third drop rate with a lower chance if getting 0 shards.

    This is not how the math works.

    If you are running 5 sims together, your are conductiongs comply to a binomial trial.

    Success Times Probablity
    0 0.1316872428
    1 0.329218107
    2 0.329218107
    3 0.1646090535
    4 0.04115226337
    5 0.004115226337


    Do or Do not.

    DarthBarron (Kevin, aka KevWalker)
  • Saada
    664 posts Member
    Options
    Saada wrote: »
    I put forward an option for 5 sims..... this whole idea was an idea not arguing what was happening. You guys said it's wrong etc so I just wanted to show it's possible. If they put it out that if you complete 5 sims and this was the possibilities. It still keeps the one third drop rate with a lower chance if getting 0 shards.

    My question still stands: how do you extrapolate it to different number of sims?

    Of course it is possible to give a set of outcomes and apply probabilities to them such that the end result is what you want, but that is completely changing the system (and making it no longer a "drop rate").

    Maybe come up with similar scales for 4 sims, 3 sims etc but I was really just thinking this idea for maxed sims and if you do anything less then the current system is used.

    I'm no programmer and implementing something like this might be impossible but it would just take away that 0/5, 0/5, 0/5 run people have. It was just an idea.....
  • Fanatic
    415 posts Member
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    Saada wrote: »
    I put forward an option for 5 sims..... this whole idea was an idea not arguing what was happening. You guys said it's wrong etc so I just wanted to show it's possible. If they put it out that if you complete 5 sims and this was the possibilities. It still keeps the one third drop rate with a lower chance if getting 0 shards.

    There is a super easy way to achieve the end result. Set the drop rate to 33% per sim and leave it at that.
  • Saada
    664 posts Member
    Options
    Saada wrote: »
    I put forward an option for 5 sims..... this whole idea was an idea not arguing what was happening. You guys said it's wrong etc so I just wanted to show it's possible. If they put it out that if you complete 5 sims and this was the possibilities. It still keeps the one third drop rate with a lower chance if getting 0 shards.

    This is not how the math works.

    If you are running 5 sims together, your are conduction 5 binomial "trials" with a probability of success of each independent trial of 1/3 (33.333%). The results comply to a binomial trial.

    Success Times Probablity
    0 0.1316872428
    1 0.329218107
    2 0.329218107
    3 0.1646090535
    4 0.04115226337
    5 0.004115226337


    I chuck up a thought and the nerds pop up lol
    maths does work like that in an experimental sense, not theory.

    If you break down what your saying, it would still give an average of 1.66*

    If 5 and 0 have the same percentage than the averages would be 2.5 which is 50%. I get it. Just chucking up set numbers for maxed sims that if could be implemented prevent bad runs of 0/5
  • Options
    Saada wrote: »
    Saada wrote: »
    I put forward an option for 5 sims..... this whole idea was an idea not arguing what was happening. You guys said it's wrong etc so I just wanted to show it's possible. If they put it out that if you complete 5 sims and this was the possibilities. It still keeps the one third drop rate with a lower chance if getting 0 shards.

    My question still stands: how do you extrapolate it to different number of sims?

    Of course it is possible to give a set of outcomes and apply probabilities to them such that the end result is what you want, but that is completely changing the system (and making it no longer a "drop rate").

    Maybe come up with similar scales for 4 sims, 3 sims etc but I was really just thinking this idea for maxed sims and if you do anything less then the current system is used.

    I'm no programmer and implementing something like this might be impossible but it would just take away that 0/5, 0/5, 0/5 run people have. It was just an idea.....

    Its not that it would be impossible, it would just take more work and it would fundamentally change how shards are distributed. It would no longer be a "drop rate" in the same sense of the word.

    Just trying to discuss an idea here.
    Looking for a new guild? Come check out the Underworld Alliance on Discord:https://discord.gg/wvrYb4Q
  • Options
    Saada wrote: »
    Saada wrote: »
    I put forward an option for 5 sims..... this whole idea was an idea not arguing what was happening. You guys said it's wrong etc so I just wanted to show it's possible. If they put it out that if you complete 5 sims and this was the possibilities. It still keeps the one third drop rate with a lower chance if getting 0 shards.

    This is not how the math works.

    If you are running 5 sims together, your are conduction 5 binomial "trials" with a probability of success of each independent trial of 1/3 (33.333%). The results comply to a binomial trial.

    Success Times Probablity
    0 0.1316872428
    1 0.329218107
    2 0.329218107
    3 0.1646090535
    4 0.04115226337
    5 0.004115226337


    I chuck up a thought and the nerds pop up lol
    maths does work like that in an experimental sense, not theory.

    If you break down what your saying, it would still give an average of 1.66*

    If 5 and 0 have the same percentage than the averages would be 2.5 which is 50%. I get it. Just chucking up set numbers for maxed sims that if could be implemented prevent bad runs of 0/5

    But then your drop rate isn't 33% anymore. You are essentially creating unique distributions based on number of trials. And if you assign drop rates per quantity of sim attempt, the trials are no longer truly independent events. That means you need to do the same for gear too. All because player perception of the way atcual probability works. You also run into issues at 1 sim since you no longer have independent trial probabilities.

    And I don't believe the OP's post at all, as the odds of getting what he described are astounding low. The system they have in place now works just fine.
    Do or Do not.

    DarthBarron (Kevin, aka KevWalker)
  • MaruMaru
    3338 posts Member
    Options
    CGs previous game actually implemented warranted drops after certain numbers. But this was pretty case specific. In that game you either had the character in full or you don't. So whales were crash&burning sometimes pulling hundreds of packs. Your guarantee resets if you pull the thing early. It also gave you something you don't have every 10th pull etc. We are talking about things in %1 range.

    Compared to that our %20-%33 things are constantly happening, we just need them happen a lot. I would welcome any change, but not appease folks perceptions. I just don't see CG doing anything in this regard either.
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