Drop rate when close to Unlocking toons!?

RedXVIISpence

Ive noticed a trend in cantina battles. Most recently my example will be with B2.. Ive needed 2 shards to unlock B2 for about 18 hours now. This morning i used my 50 or so cantina energy on b2's 12 energy node. with no shards dropped..spent 100 crystals for a refresh, and STILL no shards.. Just collected and used my bonus cantina energy, and STILLLL not 1 shard!?!?

This has happened MULTIPLE times when im close to either promoting, or unlocking a toon. This is obviously an attempt to get people to spend more money. Because There is no way the RNG is that bad all of a sudden..to me meaning the drop rate changes when you are in "crunch time".. Anyone else notice this trend? Drop rates are low enough as is, so atleast should stay the same.

I mean c'mon u cant tell me that its just bad RNG spending over 200 cantina energy, and not getting atleast 1 shard, much less the 2 shards i need. On ANY node this should be highly probable.. Even at a drop rate of 5% i should have atleast got 1 shard..

So aside from my personal complaints, is there any truth to my claims?

I love this game, and will continue to play. But this seems alittle ridiculous.

DarthCPA

Same thing has been happening to me trying to 6* Anakin today, in both hard battles and cantina. I haven't bought a refresh though.

RedXVIISpence

Yep i remember before i 7*ed anakin it happened during the last 4 shards.. Took me like 1.5 days to get 4 shards..

But when farming the 8* energy Lando node it seems like i got him real easy..(during the palp event)

I do spend money on the game though somtimes. Like when i needed a full stun cuff for anakin i bought one. And have bought a few furnaces. But i dont spend money when i feel forced too. Guess i just have to wait it out, maybe will get them at 7pm when my arena resets.. Will be able to try another refresh.

Davidstareater

Happens to me all the time when I'm about to seven star someone, or need gear, I can blow up to three refreshes for one shard or piece of gear..sad

Spardog713

Happens all the time. With gear too for me as well

Rumpelstilzchen

Why do you think they added 2 shard hero buys in most shops?

Sarryen

the cantina drops do seem very 'patchy'. i have had full refreshes with no shards at all, but when farming lando recently i was averaging a 50% drop rate for over a week. so it does balance out.

RedXVIISpence

Yup ive had the same. 8 energy nodes are the way to go if you only care about shards. Still havent got a shard today for b2 tho!

Biermann

Sarryen wrote: »

the cantina drops do seem very 'patchy'. i have had full refreshes with no shards at all, but when farming lando recently i was averaging a 50% drop rate for over a week. so it does balance out.

Lando was easy farm with good drop rates for me as well. I was afraid something is broken when I got like 7 shards from 8 battles

Generally I think it's only about luck. Somedays it's better and some worse and main problem is that our brain is more likely to remember "bad luck" than "good luck".

Ezeziel

Had this feeling too when getting close to finish a farm for gear or shards, most recently today and yesterday with hair dryers. Got 4-5 of them on the first challenges yesterday, but when I got to 35, it dropped to two per challenge. And same from farming with energy today, spent two energy refreshes getting none... Took 700-800 energy to get the last 6 to get to 50...
And I only need at minimum 4 complete sets more...

RedXVIISpence

Yea i am convinced the drop rate lowers when you are like 5-10 shards from the number you need.. Ive gotten atleast 8-10 shards a day for every toon i farm. Until i get close to my goal. Then it drops to 0-2 shards?? Cant be coinsidence as much as it has happened to me.

TattyWi

Its getting a bit much now, I noticed this a couple of months ago, when I was mainly F2P, then I noticed that one final shard would magically appear once I bought some crystals and used another refresh. I havent even started Wedge because of this.

jayjonbeach

Its absolutely WAI and a shameless tactic to lure someone to spend, very frustrating happens ALL the time and its VERY obvious

tRRRey

Confirmation bias, nothing more nothing less

EikasCurry

Totally agree with you. That's EA's trick attracting us to spend more money on that. Most people will lose patience and get those shards and gears immediately. I hate that they say it's all about RNG, while actually they control the RNG.

Jetlife

That's weird I was 85/100 with wedge. After my sims I ended up shard shopping 5 shards

BandoLandala

Since this double drop event started, I've had to use 200 cantina energy per drop to get the final 5 shards to get Wedge to 5*.

jayjonbeach

tRRRey wrote: »

Confirmation bias, nothing more nothing less

I seen this thread long ago and thought maybe it was only that, it wasn't

This is actually one of my only small beefs, overall I think EA has been VERY generous with what they handout (if we also subtract stun cuffs....), just find this small aspect frustrating

Kyno

I always have a funny situation, I do "notice" the lower drop rate when close to the end but not sure if it was real.

But the funny part is I have had so many toons at 95-99/100 get finished in last GW node and bronzium drops, it's actually not funny. So now when I get that close I run a bunch of bronzium and at 99 I wait until I finish GW to try.

Just an observation nothing, no claims intended.

NicWester

The droprate never changes. Never ever never.

When you're at five stars and you still need 185 shards to finish them off, you throw your sim tickets in, glance at the reward, then hit OK reflexively to collect. The slog is so long (especially if it it's not a Cantina character--try farming a Hard Node character some day! Fun, fun, silly-willy!) that getting 9 on a good day feels like huge progress. You don't even notice all the times you get below-average returns because the distance is just so vast.

When you're sitting at 83/100 you start to notice those days where you only get 5 a lot more than you noticed the earlier, equally probable, days where you got 9 in the past.

jayjonbeach

NicWester wrote: »

The droprate never changes. Never ever never.

When you're at five stars and you still need 185 shards to finish them off, you throw your sim tickets in, glance at the reward, then hit OK reflexively to collect. The slog is so long (especially if it it's not a Cantina character--try farming a Hard Node character some day! Fun, fun, silly-willy!) that getting 9 on a good day feels like huge progress. You don't even notice all the times you get below-average returns because the distance is just so vast.

When you're sitting at 83/100 you start to notice those days where you only get 5 a lot more than you noticed the earlier, equally probable, days where you got 9 in the past.

There is some of that "anticipation" aspect near the end, unfortunately its not just that

WrathofCaedus

Same result here, needed 2 shards for 6* FOTP and went 0 for 6. Refreshed both areas & got 1 shard. And no its not an isolated incident, I've noticed the trend on every toon that's close to promotion.

TheShadow1983

Count me in for this trend too. Happens every time without fail on shards and gear. Fpr example, I had wedge at 91, did two 200 shard refreshes during the double days, got 4 shards. Next day did two 100s, got 4 shards total. Now sitting on 99 shards and I've gone 0-7 since the double event ended. Every one in my guild notices the same trends, it's a clear scam to get you to buy and profit off of impatience. I only spent those crystals for the double drop event because that's when it's worth it otherwise I don't bother.

WrathofCaedus

TheShadow1983 wrote: »

Count me in for this trend too. Happens every time without fail on shards and gear. Fpr example, I had wedge at 90, did two 200 shard refreshes during the double days, got 4 shards. Next day did two 100s, got 4 shards total. Now sitting on 99 shards and I've gone 0-7 since the double event ended. Every one in my guild notices the same trends, it's a clear scam to get you to buy and profit off of impatience. I only spent those crystals for the double drop event because that's when it's worth it otherwise I don't bother.

Normally I don't buy refreshes either, this is maybe the third time ever. FOTP has been a long slow grind and I'll be more patient once I'm on the final 100.

Bail_Writte

I just played cantina 6-f , instead of SIM without auto, and got wedge shard to drop 6 games in a row. Maby give the SIM tickets a rest and play it occasionally and you'll get better drops.

FaRule_DaGalexy91

Ive noticed it on a consistent 9/10 basis for both shards and gear.

They throw the 1/10 where you get the shards easily in order to throw you off their trail. That way people can just call confirmation bias on our end.

Me and some guild mates did a fairly large study on it a while back (10 members---around 300 pieces of gear and 30 toons to 7*) its on here somewhere if you search it.(i didnt post it, it may have been on reddit)

MithliCathal

I am FTP, and used to think this as well. However, I have had no issues of late with this. I will have random periods of 'poor drop rate', but when they start I go away for a while, then come back and usually get what I am aiming at. I also only sim in groups of 3, just a personal habit. Except for purple gear, that I sometimes do as a 5 simmer. I reached star/unlock goals for 5-6 toons this weekend, with no decrease along the way. In fact, I felt like I was on a lucky run.

ArglosH

Pff u guys havent started farming fotp i guess.. If u complain about some bad rng , they try to farm hrsoldier well with luck u get 1 shard a day.. Thats 330 days of farming..

Slayer2faith

Happens to me on hard nodes a lot. Takes days to get the last 1-3 shards. Daka & Ashoka come to mind. Was doing them both at the same time. After I finally got them maxed, a wk later I bought chromiums & got 3 drops of them. Now it's been a few days trying to get the last couple of Talia shards. At 99/100... I also had a good time with farming Lando for the credit heist. I did the 12 energy node.

Isaiah_THE_Jedi

This is a trick used by EA to make you spend more crystals because you get impatient and irritated and then you spend thinking it is random where it is not in the slightest. This also happens with drops for gear ... when ever you get close the drops get fewer. This is a fact of the game. We have to get use to it and stop spending money until things change. It is called the power of the purse.

Olddumper

Trying to finish a set of stun cuffs is torture. 5 more stun cuffs? 6 refreshes sounds about right.