It makes no sense that to get you to spend more money, they would remove the character that you are spending crystals on to get. Why are the forums all of the sudden infested with these tin foil hat theories that that game is suddenly out to **** over? I managed to unlock a 6 star Slave 1 because the shards keep on showing up, but to get a 5 star Umbaran took longer and it's more common. It's RNG, it's random, it's not out to get you.
It makes sense because refreshes cost crystals. I'm pretty sure he is just having bad luck though
It makes no sense that to get you to spend more money, they would remove the character that you are spending crystals on to get. Why are the forums all of the sudden infested with these tin foil hat theories that that game is suddenly out to **** over? I managed to unlock a 6 star Slave 1 because the shards keep on showing up, but to get a 5 star Umbaran took longer and it's more common. It's RNG, it's random, it's not out to get you.
It makes sense because refreshes cost crystals. I'm pretty sure he is just having bad luck though
I was in the same situation too, 5*'d Shoretrooper. It used to show up 50% of the time, rotating with Baze. But after a while it felt like 10% Shoretrooper to 90% Baze.
Same with gear drops or character shards. When you get very close to finishing up a Gear (48/50ish) or getting close to increasing a character's * Level, the drop chances feel a loooot less than the usual.
Of course it can be just "Selective Perception" or very well be a marketing tactic with a coding, to get people to spend crystals for Shipment Refreshes, or to buy more energy.. Since when you are 98/100 shards to 7* a character you are much more likely to refresh that energy than when you are only 1/100. (Same with Gear too, especially if that particular gear part will increase your gear level)
Well we will never know
Yeah, that's what I'm saying. It just seems fishy to me. And it's happened with other characters too. That's why I think it's coded in a way that makes it harder for you to complete a character or mod set.
But like you said, we'll never really know.
CLONE HELMETS!! Now let's get Sabine her epic helmet.
It makes no sense that to get you to spend more money, they would remove the character that you are spending crystals on to get. Why are the forums all of the sudden infested with these tin foil hat theories that that game is suddenly out to **** over? I managed to unlock a 6 star Slave 1 because the shards keep on showing up, but to get a 5 star Umbaran took longer and it's more common. It's RNG, it's random, it's not out to get you.
It makes sense because refreshes cost crystals. I'm pretty sure he is just having bad luck though
I was in the same situation too, 5*'d Shoretrooper. It used to show up 50% of the time, rotating with Baze. But after a while it felt like 10% Shoretrooper to 90% Baze.
Same with gear drops or character shards. When you get very close to finishing up a Gear (48/50ish) or getting close to increasing a character's * Level, the drop chances feel a loooot less than the usual.
Of course it can be just "Selective Perception" or very well be a marketing tactic with a coding, to get people to spend crystals for Shipment Refreshes, or to buy more energy.. Since when you are 98/100 shards to 7* a character you are much more likely to refresh that energy than when you are only 1/100. (Same with Gear too, especially if that particular gear part will increase your gear level)
Well we will never know
Yeah, that's what I'm saying. It just seems fishy to me. And it's happened with other characters too. That's why I think it's coded in a way that makes it harder for you to complete a character or mod set.
But like you said, we'll never really know.
I dont know why but that message of mine got deleted. I was trying to edit it all of a sudden it got erased..
I was right about to edit and say: "I just spent 50 energy (5 battles) for Stun Cuffs while it was on 47/50 and got 3 parts. And that I am weighing more on the: it is probably "Selective Perception" theory than "it is an evil Ea Plan" theory right now. But than all of a sudden my message got deleted so, I'm not sure anymore
-RNG doesn't mean even odds -At least some of the odds are dynamic
-Everything is subject to bugs, and there are A LOT in this game
Arrow, triangle and cross mods drop at a far lower rate than the fixed primary left side from challenges, just like whites drop far more than golds.
I agree with the above - except for the bolded. Source?
It's either:
A) observational based on insufficient data assumptions based on standard practice on F2P platforms
C) factual based on things which would cause the post or thread to be deleted
Or combination of all or none.
A better question is why do you think it wouldn't be? It's a for profit, public SW company.
Two quick points:
In response to C - no thread has ever been deleted for simply providing factual information (aside from identities of cheaters). So if you have actual facts and data that support your claims, please post them.
In response to your question - again, Google "Occam's Razor" - in response to A & B above, feel free to also Google "Confirmation Bias".
As several people have already posted, the work, time, effort and complexity of developing some sort of dynamic RNG that would respond to your entire inventory and what the game thought you were attempting to farm, level, etc. is far too immersive for a development team that can't fix Teebo's stealth (no offense to them).
Secondly, they wouldn't have to go to all that trouble. Slot machines are random - and well monitored for their accuracy in RNG - and casinos are making money hand over fist. There's a reason Las Vegas builds multi-billion dollar casinos - and it aint because they're losing money - or not making it fast enough. There's no reason to manipulate the odds - they don't have to and it's far too much work.
Finally, be careful - I've heard that tin foil hats can get very sweaty.
In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie
In game guild: TNR Uprising I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
When the game throws you a bone and gives you really good RNG no one seems to take notice. But if it doesn't give a specific Shard you really want, it's got to be the nefarious programing of the evil Devs. I've had both good and bad luck and it balances out. I'll agree that we won't ever know how it's coded and it's all speculation.
As several people have already posted, the work, time, effort and complexity of developing some sort of dynamic RNG that would respond to your entire inventory and what the game thought you were attempting to farm, level, etc. is far too immersive for a development team that can't fix Teebo's stealth (no offense to them).
Secondly, they wouldn't have to go to all that trouble. Slot machines are random - and well monitored for their accuracy in RNG - and casinos are making money hand over fist. There's a reason Las Vegas builds multi-billion dollar casinos - and it aint because they're losing money - or not making it fast enough. There's no reason to manipulate the odds - they don't have to and it's far too much work.
Like someone said above the algorithm is broke somewhere in the game or the programmer did it wrong. I was beating CW every time but now it's like I have been denied. Who is doing this I can tell you it's not me I have good characters and was having no problems before. So someone needs to check what it wrong with this game. Some people may say RNG can't be manipulated but check again it's all in the numbers. Seen it in other games I play and it's obvious.
Like someone said above the algorithm is broke somewhere in the game or the programmer did it wrong. I was beating CW every time but now it's like I have been denied. Who is doing this I can tell you it's not me I have good characters and was having no problems before. So someone needs to check what it wrong with this game. Some people may say RNG can't be manipulated but check again it's all in the numbers. Seen it in other games I play and it's obvious.
GW scales as you grow stronger. What you are seeing is normal.
As several people have already posted, the work, time, effort and complexity of developing some sort of dynamic RNG that would respond to your entire inventory and what the game thought you were attempting to farm, level, etc. is far too immersive for a development team that can't fix Teebo's stealth (no offense to them).
Secondly, they wouldn't have to go to all that trouble. Slot machines are random - and well monitored for their accuracy in RNG - and casinos are making money hand over fist. There's a reason Las Vegas builds multi-billion dollar casinos - and it aint because they're losing money - or not making it fast enough. There's no reason to manipulate the odds - they don't have to and it's far too much work.
"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"
"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."
"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."
"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."
The simplest explanation is that the drops are random according to the most common form, a Gaussian distribution, and people don't like it when they get bad drops.
Lol at CG using some hidden algorithms to determine what shards and gear to give you based on what your farming that would be pretty complicated to implement and then for what purpose? People will say " so the grind is longer and you spend money" but that's why the gear and shards already have a drop rate is too slow you down further hindering your progress based on what you've farmed would basically mean no one would have multiple 7 star characters or g11 characters but this is clearly not the case
As several people have already posted, the work, time, effort and complexity of developing some sort of dynamic RNG that would respond to your entire inventory and what the game thought you were attempting to farm, level, etc. is far too immersive for a development team that can't fix Teebo's stealth (no offense to them).
Secondly, they wouldn't have to go to all that trouble. Slot machines are random - and well monitored for their accuracy in RNG - and casinos are making money hand over fist. There's a reason Las Vegas builds multi-billion dollar casinos - and it aint because they're losing money - or not making it fast enough. There's no reason to manipulate the odds - they don't have to and it's far too much work.
It actually does, apply here. That's why it would be best for everyone to just share their experiences rather than arguing about the subject, so we would get numbers rather than just assumptions.
I for one (as I've said before) in many cases noticed that I get lower drops on Gear parts whenever they get close to 50 (Same with Character Shards - To speak of a specific mod is a little far fetched but so far we know that Arrow and Triangle mods drop chances are lower than others already).
And even though I've never spelled this out before, the same exact theory came from countless people both in my Guild and on Forums alike.
Again this can be just a simple "Selective Perception", or it can actually be something along the codes of the game.
And there is no way to find out about it. (Unless everyone on this topic takes note of their drops on next 50.000 energy consumption and share them on a pool here so the numbers would talk, instead of assumptions, which is not very likely to happen lol)
"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"
"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."
"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."
"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."
The simplest explanation is that the drops are random according to the most common form, a Gaussian distribution, and people don't like it when they get bad drops.
This. What's the simpler of the two :
1) Randomness (occasionally subject to bad runs)
2) A dynamic drop rate which analyzes your roster, gear and character shard needs, spending habits, previously farmed and/or purchased gear, gear salvages or character shards, which then lowers probability as you get closer to whatever "goal" the algorithm has decided you are shooting for.
Occam's Razor suggests that option 1 is more likely. By virtue of the fact that 2 is much more complex, in fact, Occam's Razor would suggest that option 1 is almost a certainty over 2.
In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie
In game guild: TNR Uprising I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"
"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."
"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."
"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."
The simplest explanation is that the drops are random according to the most common form, a Gaussian distribution, and people don't like it when they get bad drops.
This. What's the simpler of the two :
1) Randomness (occasionally subject to bad runs)
2) A dynamic drop rate which analyzes your roster, gear and character shard needs, spending habits, previously farmed and/or purchased gear, gear salvages or character shards, which then lowers probability as you get closer to whatever "goal" the algorithm has decided you are shooting for.
Occam's Razor suggests that option 1 is more likely. By virtue of the fact that 2 is much more complex, in fact, Occam's Razor would suggest that option 1 is almost a certainty over 2.
1. While Occam's Razor apply here, it doesn't mean that you can't investigate other choices further, and this topic evolved into it already. (After OP suggested that there is no way to know)
2. We are not talking about a system that "tracks" and "analyzes" our habbits, characters, gears, farms.. We are simply talking about if there can be a code to lower drop chances when a Gear is about to be completed, or a Character is about to level it's star.
- MK2 Zaltin Bacta gel requires 20, so when you are at 18-19 the drop chance automatically can reduce,
- Mk 3 Czerka Stun Cuffs require 50 parts, so when you are at let's say 45+, the drop chance reduce,
- Every character needs 10-15-25-30-65-85-100 shards to level a star, so when you are close to those numbers, the drop chance again can reduce,
that is based on the theory, which is infinitely simpler than what you are trying to suggest (game analyzing our habbits etc etc.) and infinitely easier to code as well.
(5% close to completion of a piece, drop chance becomes x%)
Countless people came up with the exact theory, in different times, in different places, (and to be honest it is not about just this game either) and there can be only 2 options to:
1. Drop rates are always same, but when people get bad RNG close to finishing an item/a character they realize it even more, which translates to "Selective Perception"
2. There really can be some sort of mechanic to cause this, which is not very hard to make either (certainly not harder than sorting drop chances for white/gold/purple items), and a quite legit marketing strategy.
Hence you are "much more likely" to spend crystal to refresh your energy if you have 49/50 Stun Cuffs and especially if that's the single last piece of gear to get your Maul to G11 for example, or you are at 98/100 shards on an important character and you can't get any drops, again you are much more likely to spend crystals to refresh energy to get that last pieces, than if you were on 1/100 shards. (Same with Shoretrooper or Baze from Shipments as well)
As in those lines, both are a probability. But option 2 is an assumption therefore Occam's Razor apply here. But it doesn't mean that we can't discuss it, or can't share our experiences, or even make some sort of test here by using everyone's data. (Almost all game-based calculations on Reddit are made through Data provided by the commentors)
"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"
"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."
"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."
"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."
The simplest explanation is that the drops are random according to the most common form, a Gaussian distribution, and people don't like it when they get bad drops.
This. What's the simpler of the two :
1) Randomness (occasionally subject to bad runs)
2) A dynamic drop rate which analyzes your roster, gear and character shard needs, spending habits, previously farmed and/or purchased gear, gear salvages or character shards, which then lowers probability as you get closer to whatever "goal" the algorithm has decided you are shooting for.
Occam's Razor suggests that option 1 is more likely. By virtue of the fact that 2 is much more complex, in fact, Occam's Razor would suggest that option 1 is almost a certainty over 2.
1. While Occam's Razor apply here, it doesn't mean that you can't investigate other choices further, and this topic evolved into it already. (After OP suggested that there is no way to know)
2. We are not talking about a system that "tracks" and "analyzes" our habbits, characters, gears, farms.. We are simply talking about if there can be a code to lower drop chances when a Gear is about to be completed, or a Character is about to level it's star.
- MK2 Zaltin Bacta gel requires 20, so when you are at 18-19 the drop chance automatically can reduce,
- Mk 3 Czerka Stun Cuffs require 50 parts, so when you are at let's say 45+, the drop chance reduce,
- Every character needs 10-15-25-30-65-85-100 shards to level a star, so when you are close to those numbers, the drop chance again can reduce,
that is based on the theory, which is infinitely simpler than what you are trying to suggest (game analyzing our habbits etc etc.) and infinitely easier to code as well.
(5% close to completion of a piece, drop chance becomes x%)
Countless people came up with the exact theory, in different times, in different places, (and to be honest it is not about just this game either) and there can be only 2 options to:
1. Drop rates are always same, but when people get bad RNG close to finishing an item/a character they realize it even more, which translates to "Selective Perception"
2. There really can be some sort of mechanic to cause this, which is not very hard to make either (certainly not harder than sorting drop chances for white/gold/purple items), and a quite legit marketing strategy.
Hence you are "much more likely" to spend crystal to refresh your energy if you have 49/50 Stun Cuffs and especially if that's the single last piece of gear to get your Maul to G11 for example, or you are at 98/100 shards on an important character and you can't get any drops, again you are much more likely to spend crystals to refresh energy to get that last pieces, than if you were on 1/100 shards. (Same with Shoretrooper or Baze from Shipments as well)
Yeah, this. lol! This guy broke down my original rant more coherent and without my rage keyboard.
CLONE HELMETS!! Now let's get Sabine her epic helmet.
to add another argument; if in fact they coded the game in a way that reduced droprates when you're close to unlock/star up or what not, don't you think this would have been a hot topic since launch?
As we have established it's completely natural to start noticing worse drops just when you need them most, so players are already dealing with that happening, combine that with actually reduced droprates = forum's a blaze!
to add another argument; if in fact they coded the game in a way that reduced droprates when you're close to unlock/star up or what not, don't you think this would have been a hot topic since launch?
As we have established it's completely natural to start noticing worse drops just when you need them most, so players are already dealing with that happening, combine that with actually reduced droprates = forum's a blaze!
You are much less likely to check how many drops you get, let's say when you have 1 Stun Cuffs and need 50 of them. And on top of it there is always the RNG element too, the fact that you can simply spend 5000 energy and not get a single shard. When these interfere, it would be next to impossible to make a judgement. Especially if you don't even know what you are looking for. Now that you have this idea on your mind though, you will involuntarily check it on your journey in the game. (Inceptioned! Got the idea in all of your minds, even to the ones that doesn't accept it will involuntarily check it now lol )
The only way to come up with an answer to this would be to make a controlled experiment, which would require spending hundreds of thousands of Energy (if not millions), checking how much drops you got at 0/50 Stun Cuffs and 49/50 Stun Cuffs.
But if 50-100 people close to finishing an item checks out for it and shares their data, it would be such an easier job.
So yeah still impossible, since people like to argue more than to help out to collect data
"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"
"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."
"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."
"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."
The simplest explanation is that the drops are random according to the most common form, a Gaussian distribution, and people don't like it when they get bad drops.
This. What's the simpler of the two :
1) Randomness (occasionally subject to bad runs)
2) A dynamic drop rate which analyzes your roster, gear and character shard needs, spending habits, previously farmed and/or purchased gear, gear salvages or character shards, which then lowers probability as you get closer to whatever "goal" the algorithm has decided you are shooting for.
Occam's Razor suggests that option 1 is more likely. By virtue of the fact that 2 is much more complex, in fact, Occam's Razor would suggest that option 1 is almost a certainty over 2.
1. While Occam's Razor apply here, it doesn't mean that you can't investigate other choices further, and this topic evolved into it already. (After OP suggested that there is no way to know)
2. We are not talking about a system that "tracks" and "analyzes" our habbits, characters, gears, farms.. We are simply talking about if there can be a code to lower drop chances when a Gear is about to be completed, or a Character is about to level it's star.
- MK2 Zaltin Bacta gel requires 20, so when you are at 18-19 the drop chance automatically can reduce,
- Mk 3 Czerka Stun Cuffs require 50 parts, so when you are at let's say 45+, the drop chance reduce,
- Every character needs 10-15-25-30-65-85-100 shards to level a star, so when you are close to those numbers, the drop chance again can reduce,
that is based on the theory, which is infinitely simpler than what you are trying to suggest (game analyzing our habbits etc etc.) and infinitely easier to code as well.
(5% close to completion of a piece, drop chance becomes x%)
Countless people came up with the exact theory, in different times, in different places, (and to be honest it is not about just this game either) and there can be only 2 options to:
1. Drop rates are always same, but when people get bad RNG close to finishing an item/a character they realize it even more, which translates to "Selective Perception"
2. There really can be some sort of mechanic to cause this, which is not very hard to make either (certainly not harder than sorting drop chances for white/gold/purple items), and a quite legit marketing strategy.
Hence you are "much more likely" to spend crystal to refresh your energy if you have 49/50 Stun Cuffs and especially if that's the single last piece of gear to get your Maul to G11 for example, or you are at 98/100 shards on an important character and you can't get any drops, again you are much more likely to spend crystals to refresh energy to get that last pieces, than if you were on 1/100 shards. (Same with Shoretrooper or Baze from Shipments as well)
As in those lines, both are a probability. But option 2 is an assumption therefore Occam's Razor apply here. But it doesn't mean that we can't discuss it, or can't share our experiences, or even make some sort of test here by using everyone's data. (Almost all game-based calculations on Reddit are made through Data provided by the commentors)
You can, of course, discuss it. And virtually all data that has ever been tracked suggests that drop rates are constant and consistent. The only time it becomes an "issue" is when a few people with no actual data agree with each other's anecdotal "evidence" and post it on the forums.
But sure, if people would rather trust and discuss their feelings regardless of actual data, have at it.
In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie
In game guild: TNR Uprising I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"
"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."
"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."
"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."
The simplest explanation is that the drops are random according to the most common form, a Gaussian distribution, and people don't like it when they get bad drops.
This. What's the simpler of the two :
1) Randomness (occasionally subject to bad runs)
2) A dynamic drop rate which analyzes your roster, gear and character shard needs, spending habits, previously farmed and/or purchased gear, gear salvages or character shards, which then lowers probability as you get closer to whatever "goal" the algorithm has decided you are shooting for.
Occam's Razor suggests that option 1 is more likely. By virtue of the fact that 2 is much more complex, in fact, Occam's Razor would suggest that option 1 is almost a certainty over 2.
1. While Occam's Razor apply here, it doesn't mean that you can't investigate other choices further, and this topic evolved into it already. (After OP suggested that there is no way to know)
2. We are not talking about a system that "tracks" and "analyzes" our habbits, characters, gears, farms.. We are simply talking about if there can be a code to lower drop chances when a Gear is about to be completed, or a Character is about to level it's star.
- MK2 Zaltin Bacta gel requires 20, so when you are at 18-19 the drop chance automatically can reduce,
- Mk 3 Czerka Stun Cuffs require 50 parts, so when you are at let's say 45+, the drop chance reduce,
- Every character needs 10-15-25-30-65-85-100 shards to level a star, so when you are close to those numbers, the drop chance again can reduce,
that is based on the theory, which is infinitely simpler than what you are trying to suggest (game analyzing our habbits etc etc.) and infinitely easier to code as well.
(5% close to completion of a piece, drop chance becomes x%)
Countless people came up with the exact theory, in different times, in different places, (and to be honest it is not about just this game either) and there can be only 2 options to:
1. Drop rates are always same, but when people get bad RNG close to finishing an item/a character they realize it even more, which translates to "Selective Perception"
2. There really can be some sort of mechanic to cause this, which is not very hard to make either (certainly not harder than sorting drop chances for white/gold/purple items), and a quite legit marketing strategy.
Hence you are "much more likely" to spend crystal to refresh your energy if you have 49/50 Stun Cuffs and especially if that's the single last piece of gear to get your Maul to G11 for example, or you are at 98/100 shards on an important character and you can't get any drops, again you are much more likely to spend crystals to refresh energy to get that last pieces, than if you were on 1/100 shards. (Same with Shoretrooper or Baze from Shipments as well)
As in those lines, both are a probability. But option 2 is an assumption therefore Occam's Razor apply here. But it doesn't mean that we can't discuss it, or can't share our experiences, or even make some sort of test here by using everyone's data. (Almost all game-based calculations on Reddit are made through Data provided by the commentors)
And virtually all data that has ever been tracked suggests that drop rates are constant and consistent.
And that's your assumption. You have no solid data or any info whatsoever about it. Since no one has ever tested this exact theory. Yes they tested drop chances generally and on average came up with a close number, but this is entirely different.
@Tharivol
during the course of my "swgoh carreer" i've farmed quite alot of characters and gear, yet i've only noticed myself noticing worse drops just before an unlock/star up etc. not nearly as often. So it's easy for me to assume it's my mind playing tricks on me, wich is also far more likely than the game being coded to drop less when needed most.
to add another argument; if in fact they coded the game in a way that reduced droprates when you're close to unlock/star up or what not, don't you think this would have been a hot topic since launch?
As we have established it's completely natural to start noticing worse drops just when you need them most, so players are already dealing with that happening, combine that with actually reduced droprates = forum's a blaze!
Personally I have never noticed a drop in rates when I'm close; however, it is not out of the realm of possibility for normal gear drops to be put in it's own probability bracket or scale the probability curve depending on a number out of another number. That being said, there is nothing to correlate reduced mod drops in this way since there is no possible way to ascertain what combination and character, the player may be trying to advance.
... Countless people came up with the exact theory, in different times, in different places, (and to be honest it is not about just this game either) and ...
I usually stay out of these debates because RNG is a frustrating lord and savior, and you can never convince somebody that the game is not out to get them once they've made up their minds. But just because you have not counted the number of people who share in your conspiracy theory does not mean that the population is too large to count. In fact, I would wager that we could count up the number of people in your guild (<50) + the number of people in this forum who adhere to this theory using fewer than 100 fingers and toes.
If what you say is true, then I propose this solution for you: farm up your Baze until you get close to promoting to the next star and the game "decides" to stop giving you Baze shards, and instead switches over to Shoretrooper. Now reap the profits of your ingenuity by collecting the non-stop cornucopia of Shoretrooper shards that the algorithm is forced to shower upon you.
By the way, RNG does not care that you are looking for a Health triangle and withholding it from you. The simple truth is that triangles don't drop as often as say, squares, diamonds, or circles. We have had numerous discussions about this in the forum. Some folks have even calculated drop rates for each shape based on actual empirical data (shocking, I know). You can find the numbers if you look for them.
Big Brother is not out to get you. RNGesus is. You can improve your odds by burning incense during gaming, kissing the screen before rolling, and by rubbing the bald head of a stranger on Sunday morning.
@Tharivol
during the course of my "swgoh carreer" i've farmed quite alot of characters and gear, yet i've only noticed myself noticing worse drops just before an unlock/star up etc. not nearly as often. So it's easy for me to assume it's my mind playing tricks on me, wich is also far more likely than the game being coded to drop less when needed most.
As I said, I am not suggesting that there "is" some code like that mate. I am suggesting that there can very well be such codes in the game, and that it would be a genius Marketing Tactic. Also the only way to know it, would be to test it out very thoroughly, that only 1 person can't handle in a limited time.
Also it is not something to take lightly, if you only knew how much money was spent by Candy Crush to analyze and code stuff you would be blown away. (From analyzing people who are more likely to spend money on the game to changing chances in the game)
"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"
"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."
"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."
"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."
The simplest explanation is that the drops are random according to the most common form, a Gaussian distribution, and people don't like it when they get bad drops.
This. What's the simpler of the two :
1) Randomness (occasionally subject to bad runs)
2) A dynamic drop rate which analyzes your roster, gear and character shard needs, spending habits, previously farmed and/or purchased gear, gear salvages or character shards, which then lowers probability as you get closer to whatever "goal" the algorithm has decided you are shooting for.
Occam's Razor suggests that option 1 is more likely. By virtue of the fact that 2 is much more complex, in fact, Occam's Razor would suggest that option 1 is almost a certainty over 2.
1. While Occam's Razor apply here, it doesn't mean that you can't investigate other choices further, and this topic evolved into it already. (After OP suggested that there is no way to know)
2. We are not talking about a system that "tracks" and "analyzes" our habbits, characters, gears, farms.. We are simply talking about if there can be a code to lower drop chances when a Gear is about to be completed, or a Character is about to level it's star.
- MK2 Zaltin Bacta gel requires 20, so when you are at 18-19 the drop chance automatically can reduce,
- Mk 3 Czerka Stun Cuffs require 50 parts, so when you are at let's say 45+, the drop chance reduce,
- Every character needs 10-15-25-30-65-85-100 shards to level a star, so when you are close to those numbers, the drop chance again can reduce,
that is based on the theory, which is infinitely simpler than what you are trying to suggest (game analyzing our habbits etc etc.) and infinitely easier to code as well.
(5% close to completion of a piece, drop chance becomes x%)
Countless people came up with the exact theory, in different times, in different places, (and to be honest it is not about just this game either) and there can be only 2 options to:
1. Drop rates are always same, but when people get bad RNG close to finishing an item/a character they realize it even more, which translates to "Selective Perception"
2. There really can be some sort of mechanic to cause this, which is not very hard to make either (certainly not harder than sorting drop chances for white/gold/purple items), and a quite legit marketing strategy.
Hence you are "much more likely" to spend crystal to refresh your energy if you have 49/50 Stun Cuffs and especially if that's the single last piece of gear to get your Maul to G11 for example, or you are at 98/100 shards on an important character and you can't get any drops, again you are much more likely to spend crystals to refresh energy to get that last pieces, than if you were on 1/100 shards. (Same with Shoretrooper or Baze from Shipments as well)
As in those lines, both are a probability. But option 2 is an assumption therefore Occam's Razor apply here. But it doesn't mean that we can't discuss it, or can't share our experiences, or even make some sort of test here by using everyone's data. (Almost all game-based calculations on Reddit are made through Data provided by the commentors)
And virtually all data that has ever been tracked suggests that drop rates are constant and consistent.
And that's your assumption. You have no solid data or any info whatsoever about it. Since no one has ever tested this exact theory. Yes they tested drop chances generally and on average came up with a close number, but this is entirely different.
Ah, no. It's not an assumption. Numbers have been compiled, results have been logged. There is no evil control algorithm.
"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"
"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."
"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."
"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."
The simplest explanation is that the drops are random according to the most common form, a Gaussian distribution, and people don't like it when they get bad drops.
This. What's the simpler of the two :
1) Randomness (occasionally subject to bad runs)
2) A dynamic drop rate which analyzes your roster, gear and character shard needs, spending habits, previously farmed and/or purchased gear, gear salvages or character shards, which then lowers probability as you get closer to whatever "goal" the algorithm has decided you are shooting for.
Occam's Razor suggests that option 1 is more likely. By virtue of the fact that 2 is much more complex, in fact, Occam's Razor would suggest that option 1 is almost a certainty over 2.
1. While Occam's Razor apply here, it doesn't mean that you can't investigate other choices further, and this topic evolved into it already. (After OP suggested that there is no way to know)
2. We are not talking about a system that "tracks" and "analyzes" our habbits, characters, gears, farms.. We are simply talking about if there can be a code to lower drop chances when a Gear is about to be completed, or a Character is about to level it's star.
- MK2 Zaltin Bacta gel requires 20, so when you are at 18-19 the drop chance automatically can reduce,
- Mk 3 Czerka Stun Cuffs require 50 parts, so when you are at let's say 45+, the drop chance reduce,
- Every character needs 10-15-25-30-65-85-100 shards to level a star, so when you are close to those numbers, the drop chance again can reduce,
that is based on the theory, which is infinitely simpler than what you are trying to suggest (game analyzing our habbits etc etc.) and infinitely easier to code as well.
(5% close to completion of a piece, drop chance becomes x%)
Countless people came up with the exact theory, in different times, in different places, (and to be honest it is not about just this game either) and there can be only 2 options to:
1. Drop rates are always same, but when people get bad RNG close to finishing an item/a character they realize it even more, which translates to "Selective Perception"
2. There really can be some sort of mechanic to cause this, which is not very hard to make either (certainly not harder than sorting drop chances for white/gold/purple items), and a quite legit marketing strategy.
Hence you are "much more likely" to spend crystal to refresh your energy if you have 49/50 Stun Cuffs and especially if that's the single last piece of gear to get your Maul to G11 for example, or you are at 98/100 shards on an important character and you can't get any drops, again you are much more likely to spend crystals to refresh energy to get that last pieces, than if you were on 1/100 shards. (Same with Shoretrooper or Baze from Shipments as well)
As in those lines, both are a probability. But option 2 is an assumption therefore Occam's Razor apply here. But it doesn't mean that we can't discuss it, or can't share our experiences, or even make some sort of test here by using everyone's data. (Almost all game-based calculations on Reddit are made through Data provided by the commentors)
You can, of course, discuss it. And virtually all data that has ever been tracked suggests that drop rates are constant and consistent. The only time it becomes an "issue" is when a few people with no actual data agree with each other's anecdotal "evidence" and post it on the forums.
But sure, if people would rather trust and discuss their feelings regardless of actual data, have at it.
Isn't that why we still have religion in the 21st century. But let's better not go there I guess.
@EventineElessedil I would write a looong essay to you as well, but someone that doesn't even read the whole topic and messages inside it, and comes to a decision by 2 lines alone doesn't actually deserve it, besides game refreshed and I got a raid to finish
Read everything first than comment please, so we can discuss.
@EventineElessedil I would write a looong essay to you as well, but someone that doesn't even read the whole topic and messages inside it, and comes to a decision by 2 lines alone doesn't actually deserve it, besides game refreshed and I got a raid to finish
Read everything first than comment please, so we can discuss.
Oh dear, am I beneath your contempt? Sorry. Did not intend to offend. But like I said, it is impossible to change the mind of the conspiracy theorist.
@EventineElessedil I would write a looong essay to you as well, but someone that doesn't even read the whole topic and messages inside it, and comes to a decision by 2 lines alone doesn't actually deserve it, besides game refreshed and I got a raid to finish
Read everything first than comment please, so we can discuss.
Oh dear, am I beneath your contempt? Sorry. Did not intend to offend. But like I said, it is impossible to change the mind of the conspiracy theorist.
As I said, I am not suggesting that there "is" some code like that mate. I am suggesting that there can very well be such codes in the game, and that it would be a genius Marketing Tactic
To your question, "yes, you are". Since you don't even read before writing.
@EventineElessedil I would write a looong essay to you as well, but someone that doesn't even read the whole topic and messages inside it, and comes to a decision by 2 lines alone doesn't actually deserve it, besides game refreshed and I got a raid to finish
Read everything first than comment please, so we can discuss.
Oh dear, am I beneath your contempt? Sorry. Did not intend to offend. But like I said, it is impossible to change the mind of the conspiracy theorist.
As I said, I am not suggesting that there "is" some code like that mate. I am suggesting that there can very well be such codes in the game, and that it would be a genius Marketing Tactic
To your question, "yes, you are". Since you don't even read before writing.
Replies
It makes sense because refreshes cost crystals. I'm pretty sure he is just having bad luck though
Yeah, that's what I'm saying. It just seems fishy to me. And it's happened with other characters too. That's why I think it's coded in a way that makes it harder for you to complete a character or mod set.
But like you said, we'll never really know.
I dont know why but that message of mine got deleted. I was trying to edit it all of a sudden it got erased..
I was right about to edit and say: "I just spent 50 energy (5 battles) for Stun Cuffs while it was on 47/50 and got 3 parts. And that I am weighing more on the: it is probably "Selective Perception" theory than "it is an evil Ea Plan" theory right now. But than all of a sudden my message got deleted so, I'm not sure anymore
Two quick points:
In response to C - no thread has ever been deleted for simply providing factual information (aside from identities of cheaters). So if you have actual facts and data that support your claims, please post them.
In response to your question - again, Google "Occam's Razor" - in response to A & B above, feel free to also Google "Confirmation Bias".
As several people have already posted, the work, time, effort and complexity of developing some sort of dynamic RNG that would respond to your entire inventory and what the game thought you were attempting to farm, level, etc. is far too immersive for a development team that can't fix Teebo's stealth (no offense to them).
Secondly, they wouldn't have to go to all that trouble. Slot machines are random - and well monitored for their accuracy in RNG - and casinos are making money hand over fist. There's a reason Las Vegas builds multi-billion dollar casinos - and it aint because they're losing money - or not making it fast enough. There's no reason to manipulate the odds - they don't have to and it's far too much work.
Finally, be careful - I've heard that tin foil hats can get very sweaty.
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
Irony: noun
a situation in which something which was intended to have a particular result has the opposite or a very different result.
GW scales as you grow stronger. What you are seeing is normal.
Occam's razor doesn't apply here
Not sure what result u were going for, but u just proved all that was said wasnt irony, while trying to give examples of irony. How ironic
It can apply,
"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"
"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."
"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."
"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."
The simplest explanation is that the drops are random according to the most common form, a Gaussian distribution, and people don't like it when they get bad drops.
You really need the explanation of the whole thing spoon-fed to you, don't you?
Or just trying to be funny I guess.
Anyway back to topic;
It actually does, apply here. That's why it would be best for everyone to just share their experiences rather than arguing about the subject, so we would get numbers rather than just assumptions.
I for one (as I've said before) in many cases noticed that I get lower drops on Gear parts whenever they get close to 50 (Same with Character Shards - To speak of a specific mod is a little far fetched but so far we know that Arrow and Triangle mods drop chances are lower than others already).
And even though I've never spelled this out before, the same exact theory came from countless people both in my Guild and on Forums alike.
Again this can be just a simple "Selective Perception", or it can actually be something along the codes of the game.
And there is no way to find out about it. (Unless everyone on this topic takes note of their drops on next 50.000 energy consumption and share them on a pool here so the numbers would talk, instead of assumptions, which is not very likely to happen lol)
This. What's the simpler of the two :
1) Randomness (occasionally subject to bad runs)
2) A dynamic drop rate which analyzes your roster, gear and character shard needs, spending habits, previously farmed and/or purchased gear, gear salvages or character shards, which then lowers probability as you get closer to whatever "goal" the algorithm has decided you are shooting for.
Occam's Razor suggests that option 1 is more likely. By virtue of the fact that 2 is much more complex, in fact, Occam's Razor would suggest that option 1 is almost a certainty over 2.
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
1. While Occam's Razor apply here, it doesn't mean that you can't investigate other choices further, and this topic evolved into it already. (After OP suggested that there is no way to know)
2. We are not talking about a system that "tracks" and "analyzes" our habbits, characters, gears, farms.. We are simply talking about if there can be a code to lower drop chances when a Gear is about to be completed, or a Character is about to level it's star.
- MK2 Zaltin Bacta gel requires 20, so when you are at 18-19 the drop chance automatically can reduce,
- Mk 3 Czerka Stun Cuffs require 50 parts, so when you are at let's say 45+, the drop chance reduce,
- Every character needs 10-15-25-30-65-85-100 shards to level a star, so when you are close to those numbers, the drop chance again can reduce,
that is based on the theory, which is infinitely simpler than what you are trying to suggest (game analyzing our habbits etc etc.) and infinitely easier to code as well.
(5% close to completion of a piece, drop chance becomes x%)
Countless people came up with the exact theory, in different times, in different places, (and to be honest it is not about just this game either) and there can be only 2 options to:
1. Drop rates are always same, but when people get bad RNG close to finishing an item/a character they realize it even more, which translates to "Selective Perception"
2. There really can be some sort of mechanic to cause this, which is not very hard to make either (certainly not harder than sorting drop chances for white/gold/purple items), and a quite legit marketing strategy.
Hence you are "much more likely" to spend crystal to refresh your energy if you have 49/50 Stun Cuffs and especially if that's the single last piece of gear to get your Maul to G11 for example, or you are at 98/100 shards on an important character and you can't get any drops, again you are much more likely to spend crystals to refresh energy to get that last pieces, than if you were on 1/100 shards. (Same with Shoretrooper or Baze from Shipments as well)
As in those lines, both are a probability. But option 2 is an assumption therefore Occam's Razor apply here. But it doesn't mean that we can't discuss it, or can't share our experiences, or even make some sort of test here by using everyone's data. (Almost all game-based calculations on Reddit are made through Data provided by the commentors)
Yeah, this. lol! This guy broke down my original rant more coherent and without my rage keyboard.
As we have established it's completely natural to start noticing worse drops just when you need them most, so players are already dealing with that happening, combine that with actually reduced droprates = forum's a blaze!
You are much less likely to check how many drops you get, let's say when you have 1 Stun Cuffs and need 50 of them. And on top of it there is always the RNG element too, the fact that you can simply spend 5000 energy and not get a single shard. When these interfere, it would be next to impossible to make a judgement. Especially if you don't even know what you are looking for. Now that you have this idea on your mind though, you will involuntarily check it on your journey in the game. (Inceptioned! Got the idea in all of your minds, even to the ones that doesn't accept it will involuntarily check it now lol
The only way to come up with an answer to this would be to make a controlled experiment, which would require spending hundreds of thousands of Energy (if not millions), checking how much drops you got at 0/50 Stun Cuffs and 49/50 Stun Cuffs.
But if 50-100 people close to finishing an item checks out for it and shares their data, it would be such an easier job.
So yeah still impossible, since people like to argue more than to help out to collect data
You can, of course, discuss it. And virtually all data that has ever been tracked suggests that drop rates are constant and consistent. The only time it becomes an "issue" is when a few people with no actual data agree with each other's anecdotal "evidence" and post it on the forums.
But sure, if people would rather trust and discuss their feelings regardless of actual data, have at it.
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
And that's your assumption. You have no solid data or any info whatsoever about it. Since no one has ever tested this exact theory. Yes they tested drop chances generally and on average came up with a close number, but this is entirely different.
during the course of my "swgoh carreer" i've farmed quite alot of characters and gear, yet i've only noticed myself noticing worse drops just before an unlock/star up etc. not nearly as often. So it's easy for me to assume it's my mind playing tricks on me, wich is also far more likely than the game being coded to drop less when needed most.
Personally I have never noticed a drop in rates when I'm close; however, it is not out of the realm of possibility for normal gear drops to be put in it's own probability bracket or scale the probability curve depending on a number out of another number. That being said, there is nothing to correlate reduced mod drops in this way since there is no possible way to ascertain what combination and character, the player may be trying to advance.
I usually stay out of these debates because RNG is a frustrating lord and savior, and you can never convince somebody that the game is not out to get them once they've made up their minds. But just because you have not counted the number of people who share in your conspiracy theory does not mean that the population is too large to count. In fact, I would wager that we could count up the number of people in your guild (<50) + the number of people in this forum who adhere to this theory using fewer than 100 fingers and toes.
If what you say is true, then I propose this solution for you: farm up your Baze until you get close to promoting to the next star and the game "decides" to stop giving you Baze shards, and instead switches over to Shoretrooper. Now reap the profits of your ingenuity by collecting the non-stop cornucopia of Shoretrooper shards that the algorithm is forced to shower upon you.
By the way, RNG does not care that you are looking for a Health triangle and withholding it from you. The simple truth is that triangles don't drop as often as say, squares, diamonds, or circles. We have had numerous discussions about this in the forum. Some folks have even calculated drop rates for each shape based on actual empirical data (shocking, I know). You can find the numbers if you look for them.
Big Brother is not out to get you. RNGesus is. You can improve your odds by burning incense during gaming, kissing the screen before rolling, and by rubbing the bald head of a stranger on Sunday morning.
As I said, I am not suggesting that there "is" some code like that mate. I am suggesting that there can very well be such codes in the game, and that it would be a genius Marketing Tactic. Also the only way to know it, would be to test it out very thoroughly, that only 1 person can't handle in a limited time.
Also it is not something to take lightly, if you only knew how much money was spent by Candy Crush to analyze and code stuff you would be blown away. (From analyzing people who are more likely to spend money on the game to changing chances in the game)
Ah, no. It's not an assumption. Numbers have been compiled, results have been logged. There is no evil control algorithm.
Isn't that why we still have religion in the 21st century. But let's better not go there I guess.
Read everything first than comment please, so we can discuss.
Oh dear, am I beneath your contempt? Sorry. Did not intend to offend. But like I said, it is impossible to change the mind of the conspiracy theorist.
To your question, "yes, you are". Since you don't even read before writing.
This makes me sad.