There is a claim I have seen repeated several times on this forum that the percentage chance of a node dropping its primary reward is 30%.
I remain unconvinced.
Firstly, if this was the average then I would have roughly as many days above that % as I do below. That's how an average works - it's in the middle. If I see 5 days in a month dropping less than that then surely I should see at least a few days per month dropping more? But I never do.
Also, it seems obvious to me that certain nodes have different drop rates from certain other nodes. Is the 30% figure supposed to be the average for each individual node or is it the average across ALL nodes? Because I'd be more willing to accept the latter but some people seem to insist it's the former.
Anyway, I'm curious as to who else agrees with me that the 30% claim is wrong.
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Bassically the moral of the story is just get on with the farm and deap with what you got without moaning :-)
I'm challenging the forum figure of 30%.
There's a difference. :-)
Sure you will go 2-3 attempts straight getting zero but then you’ll get multiples a few days to even it out.
Some nodes do seem tougher but I am certain 30 percent is accurate.
Some nodes do seem better than others though but the worst you can get is 30%
Possibly but there are absurdly difficult farms that are known, such as blaze, so that leads me to believe there likely are slightly different drops on "premium" characters
My experience is that purple gear from LS/DS nodes drops at a rate of ~25%. Character shards drop consistently at roughly 33%. But I never did a comprehensive analysis because knowing any real numbers does not change anything.
Mission seems harder cause the node costs more so you get less attemps per refresh, otherwise its the same drop rate.
That's a total of 1,688 tracked attempts so far.
Not sure it's the node as much as the gear piece itself. Is it not: gold rarer than purple, which is rarer than blue?
I think I read somewhere that it's the node, but the two mostly overlap anyway. You get green gear on easiest nodes and gold on hardest.
No, that's not how it works.
The approximate 30% drop rate is measured in shards dropped per battles won/simmed. How many days you're above the average 30% and how often you're below doesn't matter at all.
This post has at least two problems.
Record the data yourself and watch the magic happen.
I didn't ask anyone to convince me. I asked who agreed with me. :-)
No one agrees with you either, this topic has been raised and beaten into submission many Times. Track your drops, and you will see that it’s around that 30% mark,
Or, use the search feature and look at the threads on this topic that have been around for years at this point. Either way. The answer for shards is approx 30% over the course of an appropriate number of attempts.
150 is not a terribly large sample size, especially when the 20-25% rate isn't that far off from the expected 30% rate.
Technically 30% of 150 is 45, . .
This is the point - your feelings fool you. Numbers don't.
From my statistics, individual nodes have varied from 26.9% up to 43.8%, but the statistical probabilities of these outcomes for given sample sizes are only below 2% for a couple of outliers. At one point, I had an extremely bad run on Xanadu Blood (35 of 162 or 21.6% [odds of this happening are almost 1400 to 1 or 0.07%]), but it has since popped back up to 27.1% [odds of this are only 43 to 1 or 2.2%--still low, but much more probable than the earlier result].
Last thing: RNGs are never truly random. They are generated by one of various computer algorithms, all of which have some bias. However, the typical RNG biases are so low, that you might only barely notice it in samples numbering in the trillions.
Ratio: today 0 of 8. Yesterday 0 of 9. Days before maybe 2 of 9. Very short time of 3-4 days with better than 1 of 3. First month with good will 1of 5 or 6. count every day if above or under 1of3. For cantina and especially mission i can not find the “magical“ the math is right.
But in 100 years there sure will come a winning strike with 1of1 for a whole year and ....in sum it will be still under the 33% ratio.
The fact that you are using the word maybe and only counting “above” or “below” is sufficient evidence that you are not properly counting drops in any meaningful way.
If in one week one player get one shard for every attempt and two other players get nothing the whole week it's still 33,3% in average, game just isn't fair to everyone.
- Grand Admiral Thrawn