Speed secondaries and slicing - 0/26 on blue mods

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Replies

  • evoluza
    2129 posts Member
    evoluza wrote: »
    Yes, GETTING speed is not 25% as there are 12 secondaries. That sounds like 8.333% to me.

    One slice causes out of 4 secondaries. I don't know where you get the other 8 from... As every slice has his own probabilities.

    Trying to teach probabilities on a forum thread is probably as ineffective as the people on here that dont get probabilities
    Take it from a chemistry teacher

    Telling some people on the internet that you are a "chemistry teacher" is as ineffective, as telling people you work at Mc Donald's.
    But even then, there are 4 stats and each has 25%. Add 4 x 25 and you get 100% chance for one Stat increase.
  • evoluza wrote: »
    evoluza wrote: »
    Yes, GETTING speed is not 25% as there are 12 secondaries. That sounds like 8.333% to me.

    One slice causes out of 4 secondaries. I don't know where you get the other 8 from... As every slice has his own probabilities.

    Trying to teach probabilities on a forum thread is probably as ineffective as the people on here that dont get probabilities
    Take it from a chemistry teacher

    Telling some people on the internet that you are a "chemistry teacher" is as ineffective, as telling people you work at Mc Donald's.
    But even then, there are 4 stats and each has 25%. Add 4 x 25 and you get 100% chance for one Stat increase.
    Chemistry teacher or not, he has a better handle on probability than you.

    If you increase a gold mod 4 times there is absolutely not a 100% chance that each secondary will pop once.
  • TVF
    15186 posts Member
    RxDealer88 wrote: »
    I am 100% sure that speed secondaries are designed to roll less than others. I spend 3 refreshes to buy mods every day for the past year. While I don’t keep track, I know that speed is handicapped

    You don't keep track.
    TVF's guild is recruiting. Say hi in our Discord! https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Rath_Tarr
    2271 posts Member
    RxDealer88 wrote: »
    I am 100% sure that speed secondaries are designed to roll less than others. I spend 3 refreshes to buy mods every day for the past year. While I don’t keep track, I know that speed is handicapped
    And I am 100% sure that without keeping track of your results, you do not in fact know that speed is handicapped. You may believe that it is but you cannot know. Belief is not equivalent to fact.
  • jkray622
    1332 posts Member
    Rath_Tarr wrote: »
    RxDealer88 wrote: »
    I am 100% sure that speed secondaries are designed to roll less than others. I spend 3 refreshes to buy mods every day for the past year. While I don’t keep track, I know that speed is handicapped
    And I am 100% sure that without keeping track of your results, you do not in fact know that speed is handicapped. You may believe that it is but you cannot know. Belief is not equivalent to fact.

    Even if a player tracks all their results for 3 months, and gets 0 speed upgrades in that timeframe, it doesn't mean that speed upgrade is broken. On a probability curve, some people end up at the bottom.

    The best thing to do would be to get tens of thousands of players, all tracking their individual results, and then charting their speed upgrade ratios - and I strongly believe that we would see a normal distribution of results if so. No individual player collects enough data to draw a statistically significant conclusion on the rates.
  • Manumicio wrote: »
    I didn't look so close on % when speed happens to increase during slicing, but of course it does happen, but really RNG based.

    But what i noticed in the last few weeks slicing blue mods with speed stats, that if speed got increased, very often only by +1, very rarely with higher numbers.
    Someone who “noticed” something that is impossible happening very often will likely have their evidence discounted.
  • evoluza
    2129 posts Member
    evoluza wrote: »
    evoluza wrote: »
    Yes, GETTING speed is not 25% as there are 12 secondaries. That sounds like 8.333% to me.

    One slice causes out of 4 secondaries. I don't know where you get the other 8 from... As every slice has his own probabilities.

    Trying to teach probabilities on a forum thread is probably as ineffective as the people on here that dont get probabilities
    Take it from a chemistry teacher

    Telling some people on the internet that you are a "chemistry teacher" is as ineffective, as telling people you work at Mc Donald's.
    But even then, there are 4 stats and each has 25%. Add 4 x 25 and you get 100% chance for one Stat increase.
    Chemistry teacher or not, he has a better handle on probability than you.

    If you increase a gold mod 4 times there is absolutely not a 100% chance that each secondary will pop once.

    The post is about slicing blue to purple.
    That's 1 slice causing from for stats...
    Still 25% for that slice.
  • jkray622 wrote: »
    Rath_Tarr wrote: »
    RxDealer88 wrote: »
    I am 100% sure that speed secondaries are designed to roll less than others. I spend 3 refreshes to buy mods every day for the past year. While I don’t keep track, I know that speed is handicapped
    And I am 100% sure that without keeping track of your results, you do not in fact know that speed is handicapped. You may believe that it is but you cannot know. Belief is not equivalent to fact.

    Even if a player tracks all their results for 3 months, and gets 0 speed upgrades in that timeframe, it doesn't mean that speed upgrade is broken. On a probability curve, some people end up at the bottom.

    The best thing to do would be to get tens of thousands of players, all tracking their individual results, and then charting their speed upgrade ratios - and I strongly believe that we would see a normal distribution of results if so. No individual player collects enough data to draw a statistically significant conclusion on the rates.

    If a person slices a grey mod with a speed secondary every day for 3 months, that's 90 rolls with each roll having 4 possible different outcomes.
    The odds of not getting 1 speed slice is:
    A singular set of outcomes of interest/(4 roll choices ^90 rolls). I'm getting 0 speed slices out of 90 rolls occurs once every 1530000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 times you roll for 3 months like this. That's 1.53 x 10^54

    I would argue that your odds of not getting 1 speed slice in 90 days is a gross exaggeration. It's functionally zero. And that isn't rounding 99.9 to 100, that's rounding 99.9 with a hell of a lot more 9's to 100% chance of it not happening.

    Now, if we increase the weight of the non-speed choices (which some people are arguing is the case) from 0.75 (3/4) to say 0.9 (9/10) that changes the math toward your favor , marginally to get this 90 rolls of 0 speed slices but that is still going to be a really good chance of 99.999999 and more 9's of this not happening.

    Considering this morning I sliced 2 mods, and 1 of them being this, I think that's the universe's way of calling **** on your 90 days of 0 speed roll conjecture. 1 anecdotal event statistically has no bearing on the other stats, but the odds of someone winning a lottery while saying verbally they are going to win the lottery would be incredibly more rare than winning the lottery by itself. 8j7to8m13x6n.png
  • When mods were first introduced speed secondaries were dropping like crazy so the devs reduced the drop rate and announced it on here (no, I didn’t screen shot the post;) )
    Agree with a few on here, speed seems to upgrade a lot less than 25% with most gold upgrading everything except speed more often than should reasonably expected. I do the 3x mod energy refresh since it became available
  • Calbion
    91 posts Member
    Just did my weekly mod levelling/slicing and even with that small data set (natural + 3 daily refreshes of mod energy), my average hit on speed was 28%. Even got a 4x speed on a B speed mod, so happy days.

    The one thing that does vex me is when you get multiple increases of +3...
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