For the statistically minded people, drops can modeled with a binomial distribution with a success being a drop and a failure being a non-drop (I say modeled as the RNG in SWGOH is likely Pseudo-RNG which is "random enough" but not completely random).
If we assume 25% drop rate on gear (I think the consensus is that it's less, but use this for ease of calculation), on 20 sims we expect to get 5 drops. However, the probability we receive 5 or less drops is just over 60%. 6 or less is over 78% and 7 or less is almost 90%.
The drop rate being so far south of 50% implies that most of the time you will at most recieve your expected value, and recieving much more than your expected value is increasingly rare.
If you want to say that this is nonsense, remember that you'll need to track collections of 20 sims and have a statistically significant sample size of them. I'd be thrilled if someone could prove me wrong, and await your data
Man I've sim'd brood alpha almost 100 times over the past few days using crystals for cantina energy. I have gotten.... Wait for it..... A grand whopping 2.... Yes TWO omega mats. I'm going to record my drops and post results when I'm done.
Man I've sim'd brood alpha almost 100 times over the past few days using crystals for cantina energy. I have gotten.... Wait for it..... A grand whopping 2.... Yes TWO omega mats. I'm going to record my drops and post results when I'm done.
25/30 percent drop rate ftw!!
I can’t tell if you’re trolling or not. Isn’t it common knowledge by now that cantina battles have an absurdly low drip rate for omega mats? I’ve done close to 100 sims of Brood alpha so far and gotten zero omegas.
Man I've sim'd brood alpha almost 100 times over the past few days using crystals for cantina energy. I have gotten.... Wait for it..... A grand whopping 2.... Yes TWO omega mats. I'm going to record my drops and post results when I'm done.
25/30 percent drop rate ftw!!
I can’t tell if you’re trolling or not. Isn’t it common knowledge by now that cantina battles have an absurdly low drip rate for omega mats? I’ve done close to 100 sims of Brood alpha so far and gotten zero omegas.
Man I've sim'd brood alpha almost 100 times over the past few days using crystals for cantina energy. I have gotten.... Wait for it..... A grand whopping 2.... Yes TWO omega mats. I'm going to record my drops and post results when I'm done.
Man I've sim'd brood alpha almost 100 times over the past few days using crystals for cantina energy. I have gotten.... Wait for it..... A grand whopping 2.... Yes TWO omega mats. I'm going to record my drops and post results when I'm done.
Man I've sim'd brood alpha almost 100 times over the past few days using crystals for cantina energy. I have gotten.... Wait for it..... A grand whopping 2.... Yes TWO omega mats. I'm going to record my drops and post results when I'm done.
25/30 percent drop rate ftw!!
The 30% drop rate is for shards.
Omega mats are not shards.
What's the drip rate for omega mats?
Let epsilon be a number greater than zero... It's less than epsilon
I've never found good data on it. With so many people farming Ebon Hawk and GBA off of 16 energy nodes, this might be a good time to get some people together and batch compile some data.
Man I've sim'd brood alpha almost 100 times over the past few days using crystals for cantina energy. I have gotten.... Wait for it..... A grand whopping 2.... Yes TWO omega mats. I'm going to record my drops and post results when I'm done.
While the drop rate on omegas is low, please do not spread bad information out of sheer spite.
Even the low drop rates are appreciable and measurable over a large dataset. Saying that they're some value so low that they may as well not exist is not helpful.
Man I've sim'd brood alpha almost 100 times over the past few days using crystals for cantina energy. I have gotten.... Wait for it..... A grand whopping 2.... Yes TWO omega mats. I'm going to record my drops and post results when I'm done.
25/30 percent drop rate ftw!!
I can’t tell if you’re trolling or not. Isn’t it common knowledge by now that cantina battles have an absurdly low drip rate for omega mats? I’ve done close to 100 sims of Brood alpha so far and gotten zero omegas.
Not common knowledge for me apparently 😅
Yea well, now u know. Nobody bothers to track omega droprates for cantina farms because it's just so absurdly low (potentially around 1%?) it probably isn't worth knowing for practical purposes.
While the drop rate on omegas is low, please do not spread bad information out of sheer spite.
Even the low drop rates are appreciable and measurable over a large dataset. Saying that they're some value so low that they may as well not exist is not helpful.
TBH I don't think you can get meaningful information when the droprates are that low. Because the rates are sooo low, getting 1 additional lucky omega mat is likely to skew the data. Also, how useful will that information be? Knowing you have to run 1.6k worth of cantina energy to potentially get 1 omega isn't really helpful.
While the drop rate on omegas is low, please do not spread bad information out of sheer spite.
Even the low drop rates are appreciable and measurable over a large dataset. Saying that they're some value so low that they may as well not exist is not helpful.
TBH I don't think you can get meaningful information when the droprates are that low. Because the rates are sooo low, getting 1 additional lucky omega mat is likely to skew the data. Also, how useful will that information be? Knowing you have to run 1.6k worth of cantina energy to potentially get 1 omega isn't really helpful.[/quote]
Let's say that's the number.
That means if you've cleared the board, you can choose between an omega every week or two from a 16 energy node without crystal refreshed or additional shard shop currency from the KRUM/Silencer node. That is relevant information and a meaningful decision, particularly considering how hard the omega crunch is.
And while the low probabilities do make the size of a relevant data set larger, it's still measurable. It just may be more practical to go to a guild or alliance scale to harvest your data.
Been farming 5 attempts on G13 finisher salvage per day to keep track of some data on drop rates. 5/45 right now. Small sample size, but 11% seems pretty low
A sample of 11 attempts clearly provides sufficient data to make conclusions.
If only laboratories and companies would stop wasting money running hundreds or thousands of tests..
....I bet a finger that if he does another 11 he's not going to get more than 3 pieces, if he keeps doing 11 attempts he's going to get alot more 1s, 2s and 0s than 6-7s, so honestly I just don't buy that whole " drop rates will even out"
The best results come from 2.sims.at a time. CG knows.this hence the update to blow all our resources at once when we're not paying attention. Causing some to purchase vaults. As well the closer you are to completing something the lower the drip rate becomes. Don't forget double drips equates to half rates.
Been farming 5 attempts on G13 finisher salvage per day to keep track of some data on drop rates. 5/45 right now. Small sample size, but 11% seems pretty low
I've been tracking my drop rates. So far, 23.59% (92/390).
Been farming 5 attempts on G13 finisher salvage per day to keep track of some data on drop rates. 5/45 right now. Small sample size, but 11% seems pretty low
If I were you, I'd be jumping for joy.
Every single other person in the game is still working on g12 finishers. If you've got g13 salvage already, you're far ahead of everyone else.
The fact that you think the driprate is 30% on the finisher salvage is your first flaw. Data so far indicate that it's probably 20%, maybe even lower. Which is similar to other high end purples and yellows.
Been farming 5 attempts on G13 finisher salvage per day to keep track of some data on drop rates. 5/45 right now. Small sample size, but 11% seems pretty low
If I were you, I'd be jumping for joy.
Every single other person in the game is still working on g12 finishers. If you've got g13 salvage already, you're far ahead of everyone else.
Thanks for the correction, my mistake. G12 finisher salvage is correct. There is no G13 gear yet
Replies
If we assume 25% drop rate on gear (I think the consensus is that it's less, but use this for ease of calculation), on 20 sims we expect to get 5 drops. However, the probability we receive 5 or less drops is just over 60%. 6 or less is over 78% and 7 or less is almost 90%.
The drop rate being so far south of 50% implies that most of the time you will at most recieve your expected value, and recieving much more than your expected value is increasingly rare.
If you want to say that this is nonsense, remember that you'll need to track collections of 20 sims and have a statistically significant sample size of them. I'd be thrilled if someone could prove me wrong, and await your data
Edit: fixed a fat thumb error
This is a fallacy.
Drop rates are static.
25/30 percent drop rate ftw!!
I can’t tell if you’re trolling or not. Isn’t it common knowledge by now that cantina battles have an absurdly low drip rate for omega mats? I’ve done close to 100 sims of Brood alpha so far and gotten zero omegas.
Not common knowledge for me apparently 😅
Omega mats are not shards.
What's the drip rate for omega mats?
Let epsilon be a number greater than zero... It's less than epsilon
Slap in the face.
.000001%
Even the low drop rates are appreciable and measurable over a large dataset. Saying that they're some value so low that they may as well not exist is not helpful.
Yea well, now u know. Nobody bothers to track omega droprates for cantina farms because it's just so absurdly low (potentially around 1%?) it probably isn't worth knowing for practical purposes.
TBH I don't think you can get meaningful information when the droprates are that low. Because the rates are sooo low, getting 1 additional lucky omega mat is likely to skew the data. Also, how useful will that information be? Knowing you have to run 1.6k worth of cantina energy to potentially get 1 omega isn't really helpful.
TBH I don't think you can get meaningful information when the droprates are that low. Because the rates are sooo low, getting 1 additional lucky omega mat is likely to skew the data. Also, how useful will that information be? Knowing you have to run 1.6k worth of cantina energy to potentially get 1 omega isn't really helpful.[/quote]
Let's say that's the number.
That means if you've cleared the board, you can choose between an omega every week or two from a 16 energy node without crystal refreshed or additional shard shop currency from the KRUM/Silencer node. That is relevant information and a meaningful decision, particularly considering how hard the omega crunch is.
And while the low probabilities do make the size of a relevant data set larger, it's still measurable. It just may be more practical to go to a guild or alliance scale to harvest your data.
I hope it's your posting finger
These g12 finishers are 30%... and don't tie emotion to your farms. It'll balance.
50/261 = 19.16%
If I were you, I'd be jumping for joy.
Every single other person in the game is still working on g12 finishers. If you've got g13 salvage already, you're far ahead of everyone else.
Thanks for the correction, my mistake. G12 finisher salvage is correct. There is no G13 gear yet