Tracking of drop rates
September 30, 2019 4:27PM
edited March 2022
Well, since I got abysmal droprates today, decided to start tracking the rates for shaakti.
Day 1 (1-Oct):
Main - 3/25 (12%)
Alt - 7/15 (47%)
Overall - 10/40 (25%)
Day 2 (2-Oct):
Main - 9/25 (36%)
Alt - 4/15 (27%)
Overall - 13/40 (33%)
Day 3 (3-Oct)
Main - 5/15 (33%)
Feel free to track ur own in the same thread. More data points definitely work out for better averages.
Edit: added alt’s runs. Clearly better rates there than my main as usual.
Day 1 (1-Oct):
Main - 3/25 (12%)
Alt - 7/15 (47%)
Overall - 10/40 (25%)
Day 2 (2-Oct):
Main - 9/25 (36%)
Alt - 4/15 (27%)
Overall - 13/40 (33%)
Day 3 (3-Oct)
Main - 5/15 (33%)
Feel free to track ur own in the same thread. More data points definitely work out for better averages.
Edit: added alt’s runs. Clearly better rates there than my main as usual.
Post edited by EA_Mako on
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Howdy, Stranger!
Replies
It works out to around 33%. Your individual results may vary due to small sample sizes.
Is there a database on discord or somewhere that you know of that has the results from these attempts?
I ask because I’m wondering if 20 energy hard nodes characters have a lower drop rate than lesser energy ones. I’ve questioned it before, but recently (in the summer) I started farming Rose and droideka on the same day doing 5 attempts per day. About a month in, I decide to increase droideka to 10 per day. A week after that, I increased Rose as well. Yesterday, Rose finished, but I still needed 12 more on Droideka.
That's a noise level difference. Inconsequential.
That might be true, but it would be nice to see data to back that up as being noise.
Kyno close this thread.
There's a group in the Planet Coruscant discord server that collects drop rates.
So, the short answer, is basically, that the energy per node doesn't matter, and neither does the node type. Hope this clears that up.
For the morbidly curious, the Percentile column is simply a measure of how many possible outcomes have fewer successes, similar to how some standardized exams are scored. In this case, it is also a roundabout measure of the likeliness of getting that result, based on statistical probability. A percentile of 50% means that you exactly hit the expectation of 1 in 3 successes, whereas a percentile of 97% means that there is only a 3% (100% - 97%) chance of getting better. If there were no statistical variation (meaning this was deterministic), one would get 50% for all of the percentiles. Most of the percentiles are relatively near 50%, so these are not unlikely results. Only the 20-energy Light/Dark and the 20-energy Fleet nodes could be considered somewhat atypical under the assumption of 1/3 success rate. One is high, though, and one is low. In the end, the total percent drop rate is pretty consistent (and varies more with smaller sample size).
Item more, if you can’t see the code and didn’t track anything, you never know the exact rate. May be 30,29,34%...
Pls @Eddiemundie, do it.
380 sims, 140 shards. 36.8% drop rate.
Nerf drop rates!
And only one of those groups of players has any data to back up their stance. But clearly your fellow players who have crowd-sourced the data gathering are all lying to support this giant conspiracy around drop rates
I’d take anyone who had tracked a node for 3 months seriously, and their data would be significant.
The thing that the “lot of players” who say it isn’t 33% all have in common is that none of them have more than 3 days worth of data, let alone 3 weeks or 3 months.
570, 165, ~29% drop rate.
I see you've been taking my shards there bud...
330 versus 318 shards. Under 4% difference. That's well within normal statistical variation for a sample of this size.
I've been that lucky with Brood Alpha's node, with purple mats and one omega on top. But a few days ago I got zero shards for two Cantina energy refreshes. It evens out eventually.
It's not hard at all to be at 4.8mil gp ftp.
I dont know why you would have an issue with this.
We can conclude the drop rate is 100%.
Thank you, close thread.
You can't take 1 bad day and say the drop rate is bad. its 33% on the long run.
followed by 2/5 jolee and 3/5 bsf
Sure I have days at 0/5,
today its 100% 40% and 60%.
@JDIII When it comes to drop rates, I tend to place my trust in people who present robust data. Take this post from further up the thread: And then, in a different thread, there is a post like this... I’m hopeful you can spot the difference between them.
Posts with the same level of detail as the first post, they’re the ones I would trust, and they’re the ones that have convinced me and many others that the shard drop rate is ~33%. Posts like the second one I dismiss as vague and unreliable. I’ve never yet seen a post that claims the drop rate is lower than 33% come anywhere close to the level of trustworthy data.
You just have to trust the numbers and data they provide in their posts. I hardly believe players, who are tracking their drops, also screenshot everything.
Thank you for this good laugh, @JDIII. 5 million GP can easily have been reached FTP by veteran players.