How many times do you sim 5 and get 1 shard or 0? - for me, on a daily basis.
How many times do you sim 5 and get 5 shards? - for me, once every few months.
I hope you are aware these 2 events are not even close to be equally likely to happen?
People complain because of psychology - we tend to better remember unpleasant events, so 0/15 will be remembered for a long time, whilst couple of 9/15s will be quickly forgotten.
Hold on a sec...(you could be sarcastic here but still) if you mean drop rate is 33% per Single Sim and valid for every (farmable) character in game... yeah no, I don't think so; it can't be.
Simming 15 in one go and getting 0 shards more than once, highly unlikely the drop rate is ~30%.
It could be that but it certainly is not PER SIM; it's calculated to reach that percentage average over a certain period of time...somehow... but nobody knows because they are not being transparent over this.
How many times do you sim 5 and get 1 shard or 0? - for me, on a daily basis.
How many times do you sim 5 and get 5 shards? - for me, once every few months.
And that's for the past 4,5 years...
30% is a pretty high drop rate to get the above crap, constantly.
If the drop rate would be that, we would not have some many people complaining over the years.
It's blatantly obvious, we just can't prove it.
You know, they had to introduce a law in order to make game companies state the drop probabilities on the loot boxes / packs etc. Just because they all have been very honest and transparent about it...
Just look at that they've done over the years with their player base, where do their interests lie and tell me you honestly believe them.
Do you understand how probability works?
Yes, it is per sim.
The chances of getting 0 shards out of 15 attempts is (2/3)^15 or close to 1 out of 400.
The chance of getting 5 out of 5 is (1/3)^5 or about 1 in 250.
Probability means in the long run, it all evens out in the end.
There is no way CG would put in an adaptive algorithm for shards because they simply don't have to. A simple command of calling an RNG with 3 possible outcomes would work. If the first one comes out, give the user a reward, if outcomes 2 or 3 come out, no reward. This is similar to a basic slot machine. Ours only have 3 pictures on each reel and the number of reels are the number of sims.
For reference the chance of getting 0 out of 5 is about 13% so if you doing 5 sims a day on hard node, chances are you'll pull a 0 once a week on that 1 node.
I don’t believe half-baked rambling posts like this from someone that obviously doesn’t actually track their drop rates. Especially posts that suggest that the “per sim” drop rate is in some way different from the overall drop rate.
And please don’t try to tell me that all the other posts complaining about drop rates - that all look exactly like yours - are proof of anything other than the existence of confirmation bias and a persecution complex in tinfoil hat wearers.
I track mine, and here’s the data for the only 4 farmable things I don’t have at 7*:
Try keeping proper data like this. Not vague memories.
I was just reading your comments in the other thread - Shard drop rates as a function of arena rank - and you seem like a smart guy; I'm not going to argue with you over something we cannot prove.
My point is, what is the % drop rate per single simulation? How does the overall rate gets calculated? Do we actually have 2 types of drop rates: static/dynamic? Why no state it by devs and clear everything up.
Why do the players have to track it over the course of... some time? Do you track it until you reach the 33% drop rate or when do you stop?
Pretend I'm slower and explain it to me without thinly veiled insults, please.
I agree, we're humans, biased, tin foil hats, whatever you want to call it but still, so many players complaining about the same thing over the years... are we all paranoid? Perhaps...
Another anecdotal thing: you know the node for Jango and HT? Lousy drop rates for Jango until you get him to 7*. Then you try getting HT to 7* and all you get is Jango shards.
...do you know what I mean... how can someone NOT think otherwise?
I don’t believe half-baked rambling posts like this from someone that obviously doesn’t actually track their drop rates. Especially posts that suggest that the “per sim” drop rate is in some way different from the overall drop rate.
And please don’t try to tell me that all the other posts complaining about drop rates - that all look exactly like yours - are proof of anything other than the existence of confirmation bias and a persecution complex in tinfoil hat wearers.
I track mine, and here’s the data for the only 4 farmable things I don’t have at 7*:
Try keeping proper data like this. Not vague memories.
I was just reading your comments in the other thread - Shard drop rates as a function of arena rank - and you seem like a smart guy; I'm not going to argue with you over something we cannot prove.
My point is, what is the % drop rate per single simulation? How does the overall rate gets calculated? Do we actually have 2 types of drop rates: static/dynamic? Why no state it by devs and clear everything up.
Why do the players have to track it over the course of... some time? Do you track it until you reach the 33% drop rate or when do you stop?
Pretend I'm slower and explain it to me without thinly veiled insults, please.
I agree, we're humans, biased, tin foil hats, whatever you want to call it but still, so many players complaining about the same thing over the years... are we all paranoid? Perhaps...
Another anecdotal thing: you know the node for Jango and HT? Lousy drop rates for Jango until you get him to 7*. Then you try getting HT to 7* and all you get is Jango shards.
...do you know what I mean... how can someone NOT think otherwise?
"All the evidence says this, and all the people who have tracked it say this, and when I do it I get this. BUT HOW DO WE KNOW IT'S THIS? What if it's not?"
I don’t believe half-baked rambling posts like this from someone that obviously doesn’t actually track their drop rates. Especially posts that suggest that the “per sim” drop rate is in some way different from the overall drop rate.
And please don’t try to tell me that all the other posts complaining about drop rates - that all look exactly like yours - are proof of anything other than the existence of confirmation bias and a persecution complex in tinfoil hat wearers.
I track mine, and here’s the data for the only 4 farmable things I don’t have at 7*:
Try keeping proper data like this. Not vague memories.
I was just reading your comments in the other thread - Shard drop rates as a function of arena rank - and you seem like a smart guy; I'm not going to argue with you over something we cannot prove.
My point is, what is the % drop rate per single simulation? How does the overall rate gets calculated? Do we actually have 2 types of drop rates: static/dynamic? Why no state it by devs and clear everything up.
Why do the players have to track it over the course of... some time? Do you track it until you reach the 33% drop rate or when do you stop?
Pretend I'm slower and explain it to me without thinly veiled insults, please.
I agree, we're humans, biased, tin foil hats, whatever you want to call it but still, so many players complaining about the same thing over the years... are we all paranoid? Perhaps...
Another anecdotal thing: you know the node for Jango and HT? Lousy drop rates for Jango until you get him to 7*. Then you try getting HT to 7* and all you get is Jango shards.
...do you know what I mean... how can someone NOT think otherwise?
How can someone not think otherwise? By actually tracking data. Absolutely none of the people you’ve found who are complaining about drop rates present anything other than anecdotal evidence gathered over a very short period of time.
I track the farming until I get the toon to 7*. Everything has been somewhere between 30% and 36%.
The Devs have openly stated that they do not use dynamic drop rates more than once - but the tinfoil hat brigade will never accept this or anyone else’s robust evidence, because they’ve already decided that the drop rates are rigged and won’t listen to reason.
Seriously - do as I’ve done. Make a note of total sims and shards earned from them for the rest of July. If you find anything other than the ~33% everyone else observes, I’ll take it seriously.
...
Seriously - do as I’ve done. Make a note of total sims and shards earned from them for the rest of July. If you find anything other than the ~33% everyone else observes, I’ll take it seriously.
I will give it a try... my problem is that I will forget to note down some of the results which will pretty much invalidate the final results. Need to try harder.
...
Seriously - do as I’ve done. Make a note of total sims and shards earned from them for the rest of July. If you find anything other than the ~33% everyone else observes, I’ll take it seriously.
I will give it a try... my problem is that I will forget to note down some of the results which will pretty much invalidate the final results. Need to try harder.
PM me if you want a google doc format for doing it yourself. My format is fairly simple and only log info twice a week and I keep it to the same number of sims per day. This makes it less tedious but still able to see your progression. It's more focused on predicting completion than shard tracking so keep that in mind but it allows you to predict when you can do specific events.
I'll throw tracking arc trooper to 7 star with a 35% drop rate, jango at 34.7% and hounds tooth at 33.8%. 3 was enough for me to assume 33% was about average and didn't track any more.
@Preto
(Please don’t take this as an insult, you, asked for a ‘slower’ version, this is as basic as I can make it)
Each individual sim has a 33% chance to drop a shard, wether you lump them together or not doesn’t really matter, there will still be hot and cold spells.
If you want to simulate it yourself at home, there is an easy test, and it is quick enough to do with very basic math.
All you need is a piece of paper, a pen or pencil, and some standard six sided dice from any old board game you have laying around the house.
33.33333% unto infinitum means a One in Three chance to get a shard.
So say that on a die roll of 1 or 2, you get nothing.
On a die roll of 3 or 4, you get nothing.
But on a die roll of 5 or 6, you get one shard.
Roll one die per sim (try it singly, in pairs, groups of three, standard max sim of 5, double refreshing the node for 15 dice, take it all the way up to a 100 dice if you want, it won’t matter)
Mark the number of attempts made in rows down one edge, and number dice thrown (Sims per attempt) at the head of each column along the top edge, and the number of successful (5 or 6) results per roll in numbers in the column down the rows (attempts made) including zeros (shards received).
Do this enough times (say maybe 50 - 100, should give a decent representative sample, although it is on the smaller side and this more subject to deviation from the norm - for a “perfect” example of a marquee character farm, you should throw 840 total dice to represent the 280 shards at a 33% drop rate) to have a decent sample size.
then add together the total number of successes (5 or 6 on the die) from all the rolls (this is your shards received) In your column
Multiply your rows (attempts made) by your column header (the number of Dice/sims per attempt), this number is your total Sims attempted.
Divide your total sims attempted number by your successful Total shards Received number.
If the answer is 3 (or a bit on either side of it - standard deviation is a Thing, and the fewer attempts made, the wider that gap can be), congratulations, you have just duplicated the principle the game uses to drop shards.
Probability of success = 30% to 33.33333% or thereabouts. I tend to believe it's 1/3 or 33.33333% but there's always a region of uncertainty within which any value is a reasonable guess.
So on the calculator you can feel free to pick one or to do it multiple times, using each value.
The chance of getting 0/15 when the probability of success if 1 in 3 = 0.246%. This means that if you're farming a couple of toons 15 times per day, then you should get 0 in 15 once or twice a year.
The chance of getting 0/10 = 1.823%. You should get this result 6 or 7 times per year if you're farming a one toon per day this way, or 13-14 times per year if you're farming 2 toons a day this way. Many people do this, and thus should expect 0/10 a little more often than once per month. If we're keeping attempts even with the 15/day for two different toons strategy (30 attempts per day), you're doing 10/day for 3 different toons and can expect this to occur about 20 times per year, or more than 1.5 times per month. Expect this more than once every 3 weeks: it's closer to once every 18 days.
The chance of getting 0/5 = 13.5%. This translates into once per 7.5 days, twice per 15 days, and 4 times per month if you only run your 5 hard node sims once per day. If you run this 4 times per day, you're talking 16 times per month and you should be expecting one occurrence of 0/5 every other day. If you run this 6 times per day to stay consistent with the above, you should expect to get this 24 times per month or one time on each of 8 days out of every 10. This should be happening almost all the time. It's a very good day when you don't have a single 0/5.
Now let's look at the odds of getting 5/5, 10/10, and 15/15:
For 15/15 we get a significant digits error: the program will only tell us that the answer is less than 0.000001 or one in 1 million. If you're farming 2 toons at 15 sims per day, you can expect to get this no more than once every 500,000 days, or no more than once every 1,370 years, if 500k days is too hard to grasp. The game hasn't been functional for 5 years yet, but by the time it has, no more than one player in 274 will have experienced this even once. You shouldn't expect to have ever experienced it yourself if the drop rate is 1 in 3.
For 10/10 we get 0.001531579% or 15 times every million attempts. That's sure better than less than 1 in 1-million, but still pitiful. By the time November rolls around, we should have 15-16 players out of every 274 that have experienced this once. Your chance of being one of those players? 5.6%. So your odds of getting 10/10 are still bad, and you should expect to be one of the 94.4% of players who haven't even had this happen once. And that's if you played every day for the full 5 years, doing this for 2 different toons per day. Now, that's only 20 attempts per day, so maybe you're doing this with 3 different toons per day to still make 30 attempts (like the 15/day for each of two toons) but spread over 3 toons instead of two. Well, then your odds definitely go up! Now if you play for 5 years with that strategy, you have an 8.4% chance of having experienced 10/10 exactly one time. You're still probably in the 91.6% of folks who have never had this happen.
Now, with 5/5 the odds get a lot better. Not merely because it's more likely to get 5 in a row than 10 in a row, but also you can farm a lot of different nodes 5 times per day with the energy you have available.
The odds of getting 5/5 are 0.39% and you can try this 6 times per day. You'll expect success once every 256 tries, but with 6 of these 5-multi-sim attempts per day, you're expecting one of them to get you 5/5 every 42.7 days. This is going to happen for you 17 times every 2 years, 34 times every 4 years, and 42 times every 5 years.
If you've been playing for a full year, this should definitely have happened to you, but as lovely as it may be that this has, in fact, happened for you. But since 0/5 happens 24 times a month when simming that much, you will expect 1440 occurrences every 5 years.
So you should get more than 34 occurrences of 0/5 for every single time you get 5/5.
Yeah. 0/5 happens 34 times as often as 5/5, but that doesn't mean the drop rate isn't 33.3%.
In fact, 34 times as often means the drop rate **must be** 33.3%
I mean, it is a (conditional, but her special grants her the condition) self-revive, that again grants her the condition to self-revive. Seems pretty legit if you have a team for her to fit in.
Not something I’d just randomly throw a zeta at either though, probably not until (in my case, Christmas-ish... second GL and JKL to deal with first) you are ready to build out a Mon Mothma team.
So yeah, should probably clarify that I am not it hing about the drop rates not being 33% overall or anything. I was more wondering about others having a hard farm for her. I remember back in the day, fotp being a difficult farm for some, or maybe it was fost.
I believe that overall the drop rate is 33%. I will continue to update every time I get another star on her. Today I got her to 4 star. And will continue to farm only her 5 attempts a day. Currently she's at 0 of 65
So yeah, should probably clarify that I am not it hing about the drop rates not being 33% overall or anything. I was more wondering about others having a hard farm for her. I remember back in the day, fotp being a difficult farm for some, or maybe it was fost.
I believe that overall the drop rate is 33%. I will continue to update every time I get another star on her. Today I got her to 4 star. And will continue to farm only her 5 attempts a day. Currently she's at 0 of 65
I’m exactly on track with her at 33%.
195/585.
(Greef is one shard behind average at 194/585, while Mando has surged 19 shards ahead at 214/585)
I've had good luck on Greef the past couple weeks. Before that my luck on all three seemed average at best.
But I haven't been keeping track, and you know how availability heuristics work!
....on other topics, Cara Dune's zeta does indeed seem legit to me, though I admit that other toons got a self-revive that is just as good without a zeta (SRP is relevant in this discussion).
I have mats for 11 zetas sitting around, so I'll probably zeta her as soon as I have a MonMothma squad, but that will take a bit, I think. I just don't have spare gear for MM herself.
So yeah, should probably clarify that I am not it hing about the drop rates not being 33% overall or anything. I was more wondering about others having a hard farm for her. I remember back in the day, fotp being a difficult farm for some, or maybe it was fost.
I believe that overall the drop rate is 33%. I will continue to update every time I get another star on her. Today I got her to 4 star. And will continue to farm only her 5 attempts a day. Currently she's at 0 of 65
But if you agree the drop rate is 33%, the question of her being a hard farm or not doesn't make sense.
So yeah, should probably clarify that I am not it hing about the drop rates not being 33% overall or anything. I was more wondering about others having a hard farm for her. I remember back in the day, fotp being a difficult farm for some, or maybe it was fost.
I believe that overall the drop rate is 33%. I will continue to update every time I get another star on her. Today I got her to 4 star. And will continue to farm only her 5 attempts a day. Currently she's at 0 of 65
If I remember correctly, the problem with fotp and fost was that both were single hard node farms, and both were needed for a legendary event. We only had 3 free tries on hard nodes back then. Drop rate % was not the problem. After that, tries were increased to 5 and fotp was added to one of the shops.
So yeah, should probably clarify that I am not it hing about the drop rates not being 33% overall or anything. I was more wondering about others having a hard farm for her. I remember back in the day, fotp being a difficult farm for some, or maybe it was fost.
I believe that overall the drop rate is 33%. I will continue to update every time I get another star on her. Today I got her to 4 star. And will continue to farm only her 5 attempts a day. Currently she's at 0 of 65
I’m exactly on track with her at 33%.
195/585.
(Greef is one shard behind average at 194/585, while Mando has surged 19 shards ahead at 214/585)
Oddly enough, Greef and Mando are similar for me. Greef is a few behind and Mando is about 10 ahead and a week and a half ago, they were both perfectly on track. I'm not sure I get how you're showing your data though. 585 doesn't make sense to me.
So yeah, should probably clarify that I am not it hing about the drop rates not being 33% overall or anything. I was more wondering about others having a hard farm for her. I remember back in the day, fotp being a difficult farm for some, or maybe it was fost.
I believe that overall the drop rate is 33%. I will continue to update every time I get another star on her. Today I got her to 4 star. And will continue to farm only her 5 attempts a day. Currently she's at 0 of 65
If I remember correctly, the problem with fotp and fost was that both were single hard node farms, and both were needed for a legendary event. We only had 3 free tries on hard nodes back then. Drop rate % was not the problem. After that, tries were increased to 5 and fotp was added to one of the shops.
Wait, back in the day, you could only do 3 hard node attempts a day? That's insane. How did anyone keep playing the game?
So yeah, should probably clarify that I am not it hing about the drop rates not being 33% overall or anything. I was more wondering about others having a hard farm for her. I remember back in the day, fotp being a difficult farm for some, or maybe it was fost.
I believe that overall the drop rate is 33%. I will continue to update every time I get another star on her. Today I got her to 4 star. And will continue to farm only her 5 attempts a day. Currently she's at 0 of 65
If I remember correctly, the problem with fotp and fost was that both were single hard node farms, and both were needed for a legendary event. We only had 3 free tries on hard nodes back then. Drop rate % was not the problem. After that, tries were increased to 5 and fotp was added to one of the shops.
yes much less to do (kind of), more characters we didn't have at 7* were in stores. gear caps, meant you had more time/crystals to focus on characters.
I don't track my results bc it would ruin my prediliction towards being outraged and mad at never getting the stuff I need. Altho, it would probably make me less frustrated, which would be nice...hmm...nah, too much work
So yeah, should probably clarify that I am not it hing about the drop rates not being 33% overall or anything. I was more wondering about others having a hard farm for her. I remember back in the day, fotp being a difficult farm for some, or maybe it was fost.
I believe that overall the drop rate is 33%. I will continue to update every time I get another star on her. Today I got her to 4 star. And will continue to farm only her 5 attempts a day. Currently she's at 0 of 65
I’m exactly on track with her at 33%.
195/585.
(Greef is one shard behind average at 194/585, while Mando has surged 19 shards ahead at 214/585)
Oddly enough, Greef and Mando are similar for me. Greef is a few behind and Mando is about 10 ahead and a week and a half ago, they were both perfectly on track. I'm not sure I get how you're showing your data though. 585 doesn't make sense to me.
So yeah, should probably clarify that I am not it hing about the drop rates not being 33% overall or anything. I was more wondering about others having a hard farm for her. I remember back in the day, fotp being a difficult farm for some, or maybe it was fost.
I believe that overall the drop rate is 33%. I will continue to update every time I get another star on her. Today I got her to 4 star. And will continue to farm only her 5 attempts a day. Currently she's at 0 of 65
If I remember correctly, the problem with fotp and fost was that both were single hard node farms, and both were needed for a legendary event. We only had 3 free tries on hard nodes back then. Drop rate % was not the problem. After that, tries were increased to 5 and fotp was added to one of the shops.
Wait, back in the day, you could only do 3 hard node attempts a day? That's insane. How did anyone keep playing the game?
195/585 means 195 shards out of 585 attempts.
Greef, Mando, Cara went onto their nodes on 9 July, which is 39 days ago. So someone who is doing 15 attempts per day will have done 585 attempts.
I’m only doing 10 attempts per day, so I’m on 390, as follows:
Cara: 142/390
Mando: 137/390
Greef: 126/390
Quite a difference between Cara and Greef. Will be interesting to see if she stays ahead.
So yeah, should probably clarify that I am not it hing about the drop rates not being 33% overall or anything. I was more wondering about others having a hard farm for her. I remember back in the day, fotp being a difficult farm for some, or maybe it was fost.
I believe that overall the drop rate is 33%. I will continue to update every time I get another star on her. Today I got her to 4 star. And will continue to farm only her 5 attempts a day. Currently she's at 0 of 65
I’m exactly on track with her at 33%.
195/585.
(Greef is one shard behind average at 194/585, while Mando has surged 19 shards ahead at 214/585)
Oddly enough, Greef and Mando are similar for me. Greef is a few behind and Mando is about 10 ahead and a week and a half ago, they were both perfectly on track. I'm not sure I get how you're showing your data though. 585 doesn't make sense to me.
So yeah, should probably clarify that I am not it hing about the drop rates not being 33% overall or anything. I was more wondering about others having a hard farm for her. I remember back in the day, fotp being a difficult farm for some, or maybe it was fost.
I believe that overall the drop rate is 33%. I will continue to update every time I get another star on her. Today I got her to 4 star. And will continue to farm only her 5 attempts a day. Currently she's at 0 of 65
If I remember correctly, the problem with fotp and fost was that both were single hard node farms, and both were needed for a legendary event. We only had 3 free tries on hard nodes back then. Drop rate % was not the problem. After that, tries were increased to 5 and fotp was added to one of the shops.
Wait, back in the day, you could only do 3 hard node attempts a day? That's insane. How did anyone keep playing the game?
showing data as shards received/sims attempted
I’ve received 195 shards/I’ve attempted 585 sims.
Cara haa been swinging for me, she has been as much as 5 shards behind and as high as 7 shards ahead of average.
Greef has been lagging the entire time due to a couple low shard days early on, and dipped as low as 9 shards behind average before starting to climb back towards normal.
Mando has been pretty steady gaining ground (I haven’t had worse than a 4/15 day with him), and he has peaked (so far) at 20 shards ahead of average.
So yeah, should probably clarify that I am not it hing about the drop rates not being 33% overall or anything. I was more wondering about others having a hard farm for her. I remember back in the day, fotp being a difficult farm for some, or maybe it was fost.
I believe that overall the drop rate is 33%. I will continue to update every time I get another star on her. Today I got her to 4 star. And will continue to farm only her 5 attempts a day. Currently she's at 0 of 65
If I remember correctly, the problem with fotp and fost was that both were single hard node farms, and both were needed for a legendary event. We only had 3 free tries on hard nodes back then. Drop rate % was not the problem. After that, tries were increased to 5 and fotp was added to one of the shops.
yes much less to do (kind of), more characters we didn't have at 7* were in stores. gear caps, meant you had more time/crystals to focus on characters.
Yep. I remember when Geo Soldier was dominant because he was the only character who could get to g9. Lol.
In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie
In game guild: TNR Uprising I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
Replies
I hope you are aware these 2 events are not even close to be equally likely to happen?
People complain because of psychology - we tend to better remember unpleasant events, so 0/15 will be remembered for a long time, whilst couple of 9/15s will be quickly forgotten.
Do you understand how probability works?
Yes, it is per sim.
The chances of getting 0 shards out of 15 attempts is (2/3)^15 or close to 1 out of 400.
The chance of getting 5 out of 5 is (1/3)^5 or about 1 in 250.
Probability means in the long run, it all evens out in the end.
There is no way CG would put in an adaptive algorithm for shards because they simply don't have to. A simple command of calling an RNG with 3 possible outcomes would work. If the first one comes out, give the user a reward, if outcomes 2 or 3 come out, no reward. This is similar to a basic slot machine. Ours only have 3 pictures on each reel and the number of reels are the number of sims.
For reference the chance of getting 0 out of 5 is about 13% so if you doing 5 sims a day on hard node, chances are you'll pull a 0 once a week on that 1 node.
I was just reading your comments in the other thread - Shard drop rates as a function of arena rank - and you seem like a smart guy; I'm not going to argue with you over something we cannot prove.
My point is, what is the % drop rate per single simulation? How does the overall rate gets calculated? Do we actually have 2 types of drop rates: static/dynamic? Why no state it by devs and clear everything up.
Why do the players have to track it over the course of... some time? Do you track it until you reach the 33% drop rate or when do you stop?
Pretend I'm slower and explain it to me without thinly veiled insults, please.
I agree, we're humans, biased, tin foil hats, whatever you want to call it but still, so many players complaining about the same thing over the years... are we all paranoid? Perhaps...
Another anecdotal thing: you know the node for Jango and HT? Lousy drop rates for Jango until you get him to 7*. Then you try getting HT to 7* and all you get is Jango shards.
...do you know what I mean... how can someone NOT think otherwise?
You're definitely a Q person, aren't you.
At some point your hand is your hand.
I track the farming until I get the toon to 7*. Everything has been somewhere between 30% and 36%.
The Devs have openly stated that they do not use dynamic drop rates more than once - but the tinfoil hat brigade will never accept this or anyone else’s robust evidence, because they’ve already decided that the drop rates are rigged and won’t listen to reason.
Seriously - do as I’ve done. Make a note of total sims and shards earned from them for the rest of July. If you find anything other than the ~33% everyone else observes, I’ll take it seriously.
33%
@AM2Rainman - thank you for your input.
PM me if you want a google doc format for doing it yourself. My format is fairly simple and only log info twice a week and I keep it to the same number of sims per day. This makes it less tedious but still able to see your progression. It's more focused on predicting completion than shard tracking so keep that in mind but it allows you to predict when you can do specific events.
(Please don’t take this as an insult, you, asked for a ‘slower’ version, this is as basic as I can make it)
Each individual sim has a 33% chance to drop a shard, wether you lump them together or not doesn’t really matter, there will still be hot and cold spells.
If you want to simulate it yourself at home, there is an easy test, and it is quick enough to do with very basic math.
All you need is a piece of paper, a pen or pencil, and some standard six sided dice from any old board game you have laying around the house.
33.33333% unto infinitum means a One in Three chance to get a shard.
So say that on a die roll of 1 or 2, you get nothing.
On a die roll of 3 or 4, you get nothing.
But on a die roll of 5 or 6, you get one shard.
Roll one die per sim (try it singly, in pairs, groups of three, standard max sim of 5, double refreshing the node for 15 dice, take it all the way up to a 100 dice if you want, it won’t matter)
Mark the number of attempts made in rows down one edge, and number dice thrown (Sims per attempt) at the head of each column along the top edge, and the number of successful (5 or 6) results per roll in numbers in the column down the rows (attempts made) including zeros (shards received).
Do this enough times (say maybe 50 - 100, should give a decent representative sample, although it is on the smaller side and this more subject to deviation from the norm - for a “perfect” example of a marquee character farm, you should throw 840 total dice to represent the 280 shards at a 33% drop rate) to have a decent sample size.
then add together the total number of successes (5 or 6 on the die) from all the rolls (this is your shards received) In your column
Multiply your rows (attempts made) by your column header (the number of Dice/sims per attempt), this number is your total Sims attempted.
Divide your total sims attempted number by your successful Total shards Received number.
If the answer is 3 (or a bit on either side of it - standard deviation is a Thing, and the fewer attempts made, the wider that gap can be), congratulations, you have just duplicated the principle the game uses to drop shards.
Hope that helps.
Use this website:
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
Probability of success = 30% to 33.33333% or thereabouts. I tend to believe it's 1/3 or 33.33333% but there's always a region of uncertainty within which any value is a reasonable guess.
So on the calculator you can feel free to pick one or to do it multiple times, using each value.
The chance of getting 0/15 when the probability of success if 1 in 3 = 0.246%. This means that if you're farming a couple of toons 15 times per day, then you should get 0 in 15 once or twice a year.
The chance of getting 0/10 = 1.823%. You should get this result 6 or 7 times per year if you're farming a one toon per day this way, or 13-14 times per year if you're farming 2 toons a day this way. Many people do this, and thus should expect 0/10 a little more often than once per month. If we're keeping attempts even with the 15/day for two different toons strategy (30 attempts per day), you're doing 10/day for 3 different toons and can expect this to occur about 20 times per year, or more than 1.5 times per month. Expect this more than once every 3 weeks: it's closer to once every 18 days.
The chance of getting 0/5 = 13.5%. This translates into once per 7.5 days, twice per 15 days, and 4 times per month if you only run your 5 hard node sims once per day. If you run this 4 times per day, you're talking 16 times per month and you should be expecting one occurrence of 0/5 every other day. If you run this 6 times per day to stay consistent with the above, you should expect to get this 24 times per month or one time on each of 8 days out of every 10. This should be happening almost all the time. It's a very good day when you don't have a single 0/5.
Now let's look at the odds of getting 5/5, 10/10, and 15/15:
For 15/15 we get a significant digits error: the program will only tell us that the answer is less than 0.000001 or one in 1 million. If you're farming 2 toons at 15 sims per day, you can expect to get this no more than once every 500,000 days, or no more than once every 1,370 years, if 500k days is too hard to grasp. The game hasn't been functional for 5 years yet, but by the time it has, no more than one player in 274 will have experienced this even once. You shouldn't expect to have ever experienced it yourself if the drop rate is 1 in 3.
For 10/10 we get 0.001531579% or 15 times every million attempts. That's sure better than less than 1 in 1-million, but still pitiful. By the time November rolls around, we should have 15-16 players out of every 274 that have experienced this once. Your chance of being one of those players? 5.6%. So your odds of getting 10/10 are still bad, and you should expect to be one of the 94.4% of players who haven't even had this happen once. And that's if you played every day for the full 5 years, doing this for 2 different toons per day. Now, that's only 20 attempts per day, so maybe you're doing this with 3 different toons per day to still make 30 attempts (like the 15/day for each of two toons) but spread over 3 toons instead of two. Well, then your odds definitely go up! Now if you play for 5 years with that strategy, you have an 8.4% chance of having experienced 10/10 exactly one time. You're still probably in the 91.6% of folks who have never had this happen.
Now, with 5/5 the odds get a lot better. Not merely because it's more likely to get 5 in a row than 10 in a row, but also you can farm a lot of different nodes 5 times per day with the energy you have available.
The odds of getting 5/5 are 0.39% and you can try this 6 times per day. You'll expect success once every 256 tries, but with 6 of these 5-multi-sim attempts per day, you're expecting one of them to get you 5/5 every 42.7 days. This is going to happen for you 17 times every 2 years, 34 times every 4 years, and 42 times every 5 years.
If you've been playing for a full year, this should definitely have happened to you, but as lovely as it may be that this has, in fact, happened for you. But since 0/5 happens 24 times a month when simming that much, you will expect 1440 occurrences every 5 years.
So you should get more than 34 occurrences of 0/5 for every single time you get 5/5.
Yeah. 0/5 happens 34 times as often as 5/5, but that doesn't mean the drop rate isn't 33.3%.
In fact, 34 times as often means the drop rate **must be** 33.3%
I've never felt more alive.
Come for the original post...
Stay for the ensuing arguments...
I mean, it is a (conditional, but her special grants her the condition) self-revive, that again grants her the condition to self-revive. Seems pretty legit if you have a team for her to fit in.
Not something I’d just randomly throw a zeta at either though, probably not until (in my case, Christmas-ish... second GL and JKL to deal with first) you are ready to build out a Mon Mothma team.
I believe that overall the drop rate is 33%. I will continue to update every time I get another star on her. Today I got her to 4 star. And will continue to farm only her 5 attempts a day. Currently she's at 0 of 65
I’m exactly on track with her at 33%.
195/585.
(Greef is one shard behind average at 194/585, while Mando has surged 19 shards ahead at 214/585)
But I haven't been keeping track, and you know how availability heuristics work!
....on other topics, Cara Dune's zeta does indeed seem legit to me, though I admit that other toons got a self-revive that is just as good without a zeta (SRP is relevant in this discussion).
I have mats for 11 zetas sitting around, so I'll probably zeta her as soon as I have a MonMothma squad, but that will take a bit, I think. I just don't have spare gear for MM herself.
But if you agree the drop rate is 33%, the question of her being a hard farm or not doesn't make sense.
If I remember correctly, the problem with fotp and fost was that both were single hard node farms, and both were needed for a legendary event. We only had 3 free tries on hard nodes back then. Drop rate % was not the problem. After that, tries were increased to 5 and fotp was added to one of the shops.
Oddly enough, Greef and Mando are similar for me. Greef is a few behind and Mando is about 10 ahead and a week and a half ago, they were both perfectly on track. I'm not sure I get how you're showing your data though. 585 doesn't make sense to me.
Wait, back in the day, you could only do 3 hard node attempts a day? That's insane. How did anyone keep playing the game?
Before my time, but there were way less things to farm.
yes much less to do (kind of), more characters we didn't have at 7* were in stores. gear caps, meant you had more time/crystals to focus on characters.
195/585 means 195 shards out of 585 attempts.
Greef, Mando, Cara went onto their nodes on 9 July, which is 39 days ago. So someone who is doing 15 attempts per day will have done 585 attempts.
I’m only doing 10 attempts per day, so I’m on 390, as follows:
Cara: 142/390
Mando: 137/390
Greef: 126/390
Quite a difference between Cara and Greef. Will be interesting to see if she stays ahead.
showing data as shards received/sims attempted
I’ve received 195 shards/I’ve attempted 585 sims.
Cara haa been swinging for me, she has been as much as 5 shards behind and as high as 7 shards ahead of average.
Greef has been lagging the entire time due to a couple low shard days early on, and dipped as low as 9 shards behind average before starting to climb back towards normal.
Mando has been pretty steady gaining ground (I haven’t had worse than a 4/15 day with him), and he has peaked (so far) at 20 shards ahead of average.
Yep. I remember when Geo Soldier was dominant because he was the only character who could get to g9. Lol.
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
She seems to be a good addition to the Rebel Fighter faction, surely?