Bear in mind B2 has low drop rate anyway. I did one refresh and got 12 shards. Previously I was farming finn for the falcon unlock, until I learned he would become login character for january, so i ditched farming him and switched to B2. Spent maybe 240 energy for 12 shards.
So I guess he has something like 25% drop chance. Remember the boost doesn't affect drop rates, only the rewards from the drops. So it's still about a 25% chance for 2 shards instead of 1.
From my experience, B2 and Aayla have poor drops to begin with, worse than Wedge. I stopped refreshing completely and just use the daily free cantina to farm Aayla and B2, and call it a day. It's slow, but I'll get there with the same poor drop rate with a little patience and my saved crystals going to gear instead.
TFP drops is more generous even without the double drops. Getting 15-20 shards on 10 sims, simming 2 at a time with the double drops. I'm buying cantina refreshes for him until I hit 7*.
Why can't there be double drop with mods.. There's no characters I need in cantina so this double drop is useless. I do think we'll see another character added once double drop is over
unfortunately first post stole my quote....double from zero is zero...before they put their famous double drops at least i had steady 15/20 % drop......with double drops it went to 5%....
True because today already I got 22 shards for wedge. Leaves me 28 short for the ep finally in a week so I'm in good shape now. Plus I buy them in fleet too so I can finish and be on to the next toon. Maybe get a good head start on tfp or b2 haven't decided yet
i remember the last time there was a double drop in cantina there were a lot of people complaining about how the drop rate was very low but at the same time i was getting crazy amount of shards
seen others in my guild that were really lucky so i hope my RNG balances out before the double drop ends
I had a real hot streak yesterday with JKA shards on final Cantina battle on level 7 - got 28 shards in two refreshes. Today, with two refreshes, I have only managed four. Need 18 more to get him to 6* - actually got more from the LS/DS Hard battles today (5 in all).
"Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen...mostly"
It doesn't take too many brain cells or math skills to understand they dynamically change drop rates. Farm attempts are controlled server side which prevents client side manipulation (someone hacking and giving themselves shards, credits or crystals) but also live, dynamic manipulation of economy based on any metric they choose for game or profit.
Some things are obviously possible but are mathematically so improbable that multiple occurances indicate they are changing the probability between attempts. Overall it may average x% but they may decide that too many B2 shards went out this hour so set the drop rate from 0.25 to 0.01 or realize that people are paying big for crystal refreshes when farming X so decrease the drop rate to 0.15 and so forth.
Because it's dynamic, some could be getting different drop rates.
Hey don't publish the rates so they can do anything they want with them for any reason.
It doesn't take too many brain cells or math skills to understand they dynamically change drop rates. Farm attempts are controlled server side which prevents client side manipulation (someone hacking and giving themselves shards, credits or crystals) but also live, dynamic manipulation of economy based on any metric they choose for game or profit.
Some things are obviously possible but are mathematically so improbable that multiple occurances indicate they are changing the probability between attempts. Overall it may average x% but they may decide that too many B2 shards went out this hour so set the drop rate from 0.25 to 0.01 or realize that people are paying big for crystal refreshes when farming X so decrease the drop rate to 0.15 and so forth.
Because it's dynamic, some could be getting different drop rates.
Hey don't publish the rates so they can do anything they want with them for any reason.
Or the droprate isn't changed at all and it's just normal RNG.
It being possible and it actually happening are 2 different things. You'd have to provide some compelling evidence before i start believing it's anything other than just bad luck.
It doesn't take too many brain cells or math skills to understand they dynamically change drop rates. Farm attempts are controlled server side which prevents client side manipulation (someone hacking and giving themselves shards, credits or crystals) but also live, dynamic manipulation of economy based on any metric they choose for game or profit.
Some things are obviously possible but are mathematically so improbable that multiple occurances indicate they are changing the probability between attempts. Overall it may average x% but they may decide that too many B2 shards went out this hour so set the drop rate from 0.25 to 0.01 or realize that people are paying big for crystal refreshes when farming X so decrease the drop rate to 0.15 and so forth.
Because it's dynamic, some could be getting different drop rates.
Hey don't publish the rates so they can do anything they want with them for any reason.
Or the droprate isn't changed at all and it's just normal RNG.
It being possible and it actually happening are 2 different things. You'd have to provide some compelling evidence before i start believing it's anything other than just bad luck.
Or a higher being is controlling the drop rate through manipulating entropy. You will have to provide some compelling evidence before I believe your story.
Neither theory has any proof, but one is more likely then the others. Here is a hint: those who deny customers transparency are usually the ones with something to hide.
Or the droprate isn't changed at all and it's just normal RNG.
It being possible and it actually happening are 2 different things. You'd have to provide some compelling evidence before i start believing it's anything other than just bad luck.
It's not random, I highly doubt they introduced any level of entropy to it so it's just a seed into a static list. I don't blame the implementor, it's just a game. If it's not purposely, the usual cause for irregular behavior is usually poor seeding methods from an inexperienced coder.
I don't know your knowledge of computing probability but say you have a 30% chance of a successful outcome, the chance of two in a row is 0.3x0.3 = 0.09 = 9%. Chance of two failures is 49%. Chance of 10 failures is 0.7^10 = 0.028 %. Possible yes? Now compute the probability of doing that twice out of 21 tries. It would simulate someone who buys 2x refreshes and sims a toon which costs 12 per attempt and twice not getting anything. In sure MANY people have experiences that, I have.
So think about how rare that is yet how often it happens. That is not a result of something that is random.
From my own observation, there seems to be a throttle mechanism. I've always gotten insane shards from lame characters, and next to nothing on characters like Wedge. If there is throttling, that would also explain why shard percentages seem to go down during Double Shard events. There are still people who get lucky and hit the throttle reset time, but the rest of us are probably hitting the decaying rate. I tend to farm less popular characters during these events now. But Wedge is my lead. Grrr.
Replies
I'm in the same boat here. I think I've gotten 10 shards total with 2 refreshes.... Am I missing something... other than the shards I thought I'd get?
So I guess he has something like 25% drop chance. Remember the boost doesn't affect drop rates, only the rewards from the drops. So it's still about a 25% chance for 2 shards instead of 1.
TFP drops is more generous even without the double drops. Getting 15-20 shards on 10 sims, simming 2 at a time with the double drops. I'm buying cantina refreshes for him until I hit 7*.
Yeah happened with me too
f...
i remember the last time there was a double drop in cantina there were a lot of people complaining about how the drop rate was very low but at the same time i was getting crazy amount of shards
seen others in my guild that were really lucky so i hope my RNG balances out before the double drop ends
Some things are obviously possible but are mathematically so improbable that multiple occurances indicate they are changing the probability between attempts. Overall it may average x% but they may decide that too many B2 shards went out this hour so set the drop rate from 0.25 to 0.01 or realize that people are paying big for crystal refreshes when farming X so decrease the drop rate to 0.15 and so forth.
Because it's dynamic, some could be getting different drop rates.
Hey don't publish the rates so they can do anything they want with them for any reason.
Or the droprate isn't changed at all and it's just normal RNG.
It being possible and it actually happening are 2 different things. You'd have to provide some compelling evidence before i start believing it's anything other than just bad luck.
Or a higher being is controlling the drop rate through manipulating entropy. You will have to provide some compelling evidence before I believe your story.
Neither theory has any proof, but one is more likely then the others. Here is a hint: those who deny customers transparency are usually the ones with something to hide.
It's not random, I highly doubt they introduced any level of entropy to it so it's just a seed into a static list. I don't blame the implementor, it's just a game. If it's not purposely, the usual cause for irregular behavior is usually poor seeding methods from an inexperienced coder.
I don't know your knowledge of computing probability but say you have a 30% chance of a successful outcome, the chance of two in a row is 0.3x0.3 = 0.09 = 9%. Chance of two failures is 49%. Chance of 10 failures is 0.7^10 = 0.028 %. Possible yes? Now compute the probability of doing that twice out of 21 tries. It would simulate someone who buys 2x refreshes and sims a toon which costs 12 per attempt and twice not getting anything. In sure MANY people have experiences that, I have.
So think about how rare that is yet how often it happens. That is not a result of something that is random.
Dilbert comic says it all.