The Logray problem

Replies

  • The logray problem is just a fallacy by people who want everything instantaneously
  • Logray is garbage anyway

    Woah woah woah there
  • Piewalker wrote: »
    NicWester wrote: »
    TVF wrote: »
    TVF wrote: »
    Logray looking back at me after store refresh...

    4/4 last 4 days. It’s like they flipped the switch back on.

    They left the switch in the exact same [hidden drop rate] spot it's always been. That's how odds work.

    It’s funny how so many of us notice the deficiency....except you. 🤷🏼‍♂️😂. Defending until the end I suppose lol
    You notice confirmation bias.
    TVF wrote: »
    Conspiracy theories always seem to make certain people feel better for some reason.

    Or just smart business.

    No, conspiracy theory. And even "theory" is giving it too much credit. Where's your proof? That a couple people on a forum complained and now aren't complaining any more? Let's say, for the sake of argument, that there's a 1% chance of not seeing a specific character for a couple days. That's a pretty rare, pretty low amount and shouldn't happen, right? If this game has a million players then it's going to happen to 1000 people.

    The more people in the game, the more likely unlikely outcomes become.

    There are obviously characters with greater “value” based on their abilities or their requirement to participate (and succeed) in events - to the extent that their shards are offered for cash when they are at their peak demand. It isn’t completely outrageous to imagine that those who want to generate revenue from the game would want the ability to influence the rate of occurrence for these characters to increase that demand.

    Proof works both ways. It would be great for the community if the development team could confirm that there is no capability in the code to apply different weightings to character occurrences within an overall random selection process.

    Apologies if a formal statement to that effect has been made previously but I’m not aware of one and would definitely welcome it. It may(!) quieten some of the conspiracy theorists though I suppose they’re less likely to take it on trust.

    Nobody actually bothered with checking out spawn rates in the shop so i dont think we actually have any real data here. And anw even if EACG posted the rates (like the data card probabilities), they could lie about it too couldn’t they?

    Fact is that each guild store slot has specifc toons that rotate through it, so the more toons there are that can spawn in that slot, the higher the rng.
  • Rath_Tarr
    1214 posts Member
    edited January 12
    Gcdevil wrote: »
    The logray problem is just a fallacy by people who want everything instantaneously
    The little booger is hiding from me at the moment That's a problem. I want him naoooooow!!!!! :D
  • CDFrawg wrote: »
    My ewoks did fine without Logray. What's the issue?

    No issue. Assume you had Wicket? If you had Scout in place of Wicket, Logray would be more important.
  • Oberon1066 wrote: »
    It just seems bad. The one time I was low on guild tokens recently he appeared 2 times in a row, and now I've got them again nothing since. Someone is watching me, teasing me with crystal packages...

    This is why you save.
  • Wow! 2 today, after none for a week. 4/100 and counting.
  • Logray rarely ever shows up. I'm still at 59/85. Doubt I'll have him done by the time Threepio returns, at this rate, but I'm strengthening the Ewoks that I do have to G11/12, so hopefully it won't be an issue.
  • TVF
    9359 posts Member
    Logray rarely ever shows up. I'm still at 59/85. Doubt I'll have him done by the time Threepio returns, at this rate, but I'm strengthening the Ewoks that I do have to G11/12, so hopefully it won't be an issue.

    3PO is a long ways off. You say Logray rarely shows up but odds are he will show up a bunch of times at some point. If you check the store at every refresh you will have no problem getting another 126 shards.
  • It’s been a week. No Logray.
    Fix this now please
  • YKMisfit wrote: »
    Logray never shows up in the guild store
    Dengar never shows up in the guild store
    Jyn never shows up in the guild store

    I see these threads all the time. Is it possible that they all show up at random and likely equally as often? No, the game is just out to get you, that’s the answer!

    I can ballpark my numbers for you for whatever it's worth.

    Prior to the chewbacca even i did not have Dengar. I had under 25 shards as I think that's his unlock. Whatever i got was from the random shard via the Galactic War payouts. I started farming him via the shop as soon as the first event ended. I had him 7'd with 3-4 weeks to spare before the next event. FWIW, i did the same with Zam in the same time frame, but finished here with just a few days to spare.

    I can tell you flat out i had less Logray shards before starting to farm him (when he shows up). Started before the 3po event by about a week or so. To this point, i have 94 total. That's in about 6-7 weeks. I have that many weeks to go (presumably) before it returns. If that math plays out i'm at 184. On my way to 6, but not sniffing 7.

    I'm not going to say it's right or wrong, it's what i've gotten to this point.

    I'm in the same boat to an extent with Chewy as well. I've got 6 BH's 7'd, but no Bossk. I'm at 12/11/11/10/10. the RNG on T6 alone was utter **** and i never took down a single toon at T7. But that's another story. At least to get Bossk it's a quantifiable thing and it's wholly 'on me' to do the farm. Sure you have the odds against you with low payouts, but I can farm him 2-3x a day every day etc. To essentially require a toon that you have little to no control over the farm - and to make that farm a rare event is a pretty crappy move. It simply is. Sure, if you've been around a long time you had a good head start. People who haven't don't and it shouldn't take 9 months because the designers want to arbitrarily make it substantially hard by blocking your access to it.

    Once i'm done with my Old Republic HM's it's off to Bossk. PITA? Sure, but you know it'll get done in a predictable time frame because he's always there. When you can't reliably farm a shop-only toon inside of 9 months because it never shows - it's just poor design to require that toon.

    And lets be clear, he shows up on a very infrequent basis. I like the math that he presumably could show up 0-56 times in a two week span. I'm not sure i've seen 0 in a two week span, but i can guarantee you i've not seen 10 in a two week span either. It's like saying fight odds on Chewy are pure RNG. They're not. It's a heavily weighted RNG like pack probabilities working against you.
  • I am not experiencing something odd in this shop. I am farming several TB toons (Aayla, B2, Kit,..) and the FOSFTFP as well as Logray for the lasts months. Of course not evveryone simultanously but 2 or 3. Between the bought shards for the toons were never a big dicrepancy.
  • cboath7 wrote: »
    YKMisfit wrote: »
    Logray never shows up in the guild store
    Dengar never shows up in the guild store
    Jyn never shows up in the guild store

    I see these threads all the time. Is it possible that they all show up at random and likely equally as often? No, the game is just out to get you, that’s the answer!

    I can ballpark my numbers for you for whatever it's worth.

    Prior to the chewbacca even i did not have Dengar. I had under 25 shards as I think that's his unlock. Whatever i got was from the random shard via the Galactic War payouts. I started farming him via the shop as soon as the first event ended. I had him 7'd with 3-4 weeks to spare before the next event. FWIW, i did the same with Zam in the same time frame, but finished here with just a few days to spare.

    I can tell you flat out i had less Logray shards before starting to farm him (when he shows up). Started before the 3po event by about a week or so. To this point, i have 94 total. That's in about 6-7 weeks. I have that many weeks to go (presumably) before it returns. If that math plays out i'm at 184. On my way to 6, but not sniffing 7.

    I'm not going to say it's right or wrong, it's what i've gotten to this point.

    I'm in the same boat to an extent with Chewy as well. I've got 6 BH's 7'd, but no Bossk. I'm at 12/11/11/10/10. the RNG on T6 alone was utter **** and i never took down a single toon at T7. But that's another story. At least to get Bossk it's a quantifiable thing and it's wholly 'on me' to do the farm. Sure you have the odds against you with low payouts, but I can farm him 2-3x a day every day etc. To essentially require a toon that you have little to no control over the farm - and to make that farm a rare event is a pretty crappy move. It simply is. Sure, if you've been around a long time you had a good head start. People who haven't don't and it shouldn't take 9 months because the designers want to arbitrarily make it substantially hard by blocking your access to it.

    Once i'm done with my Old Republic HM's it's off to Bossk. PITA? Sure, but you know it'll get done in a predictable time frame because he's always there. When you can't reliably farm a shop-only toon inside of 9 months because it never shows - it's just poor design to require that toon.

    And lets be clear, he shows up on a very infrequent basis. I like the math that he presumably could show up 0-56 times in a two week span. I'm not sure i've seen 0 in a two week span, but i can guarantee you i've not seen 10 in a two week span either. It's like saying fight odds on Chewy are pure RNG. They're not. It's a heavily weighted RNG like pack probabilities working against you.

    Logery isn't a req for the 3PO event. He may make it easier but you can definitely do it without him.
  • Simple math and i know not pure statistical analysis.

    If Logray is 1/6 chance to drop, over a week that's 28 chances, which is a bit over 4.5 drops per week (if 1/6 holds). So, over 2 weeks that'd be 9 drops = 45 shards. (22.5 per week) which nets you 330 shards in roughly 15 weeks.

    94 over 7 weeks is under that at 13.5 per week.Taking you from 15 weeks to between 25-30. Providing the numbers don't change. I can't say the numbers won't change, but both Dengar and Zam were fairly consistent throughout.
  • Piewalker wrote: »
    Proof works both ways.
    No, actually, it doesn't. There's a burden of proof that only rests on one person, and it's the side that's making the extraordinary claim. Like, we can see drop rates if we track them long enough with enough of a sample size and we can see that they're consistently the same whether there's an event going on or not. If you're going to say that it's anything other than what's been established the burden of proof is on you to prove your claim, not on us to disprove yours or prove ours.
    TVF wrote: »
    Well ok but this a thread complaining about Logray, and by extension it's a complaint about the way rotating shops work. It had nothing to do with a hard node farm like Wicket.
    Hard node? Feh, get him through the event! I've got him at 76/100 and I've never farmed him seriously (I was about to say I'd never farmed him period, but somehow I got at least 1 shard outside of the event, so I must have done it at some point).
    Ceterum censeo Patientia esse meliat.
  • NicWester wrote: »
    Piewalker wrote: »
    Proof works both ways.
    No, actually, it doesn't. There's a burden of proof that only rests on one person, and it's the side that's making the extraordinary claim. Like, we can see drop rates if we track them long enough with enough of a sample size and we can see that they're consistently the same whether there's an event going on or not. If you're going to say that it's anything other than what's been established the burden of proof is on you to prove your claim, not on us to disprove yours or prove ours.
    TVF wrote: »
    Well ok but this a thread complaining about Logray, and by extension it's a complaint about the way rotating shops work. It had nothing to do with a hard node farm like Wicket.
    Hard node? Feh, get him through the event! I've got him at 76/100 and I've never farmed him seriously (I was about to say I'd never farmed him period, but somehow I got at least 1 shard outside of the event, so I must have done it at some point).

    Wicket’s node drops mk5 stun guns, so it’s a decent farm anyway.
  • It took me over (iirc, if not it was at least a week) a week to get the last ten I needed for him. I feel your pain, op/etc. And I would check all the shop changes (maybe missed one or two, in a week). gl all
  • TVF
    9359 posts Member
    NicWester wrote: »
    TVF wrote: »
    Well ok but this a thread complaining about Logray, and by extension it's a complaint about the way rotating shops work. It had nothing to do with a hard node farm like Wicket.
    Hard node? Feh, get him through the event! I've got him at 76/100 and I've never farmed him seriously (I was about to say I'd never farmed him period, but somehow I got at least 1 shard outside of the event, so I must have done it at some point).

    Says the guy with a 6* C3PO. :p
  • Fair enough, but I'll get him to 7* next time for sure!
    Ceterum censeo Patientia esse meliat.
  • It's been 5 or 6 days for me and before the last drop it was nearly as long. I check every refresh. I have strong suspicions that his "chance to drop" is lower than the others in that spot. Why wouldn't CG lower it if they can make money off it? Anybody that "believes" it's random is naive.
  • Chance for there to be no drops in a week = (5/6)^28 = 0.0061
    Average time to farm = 330/(28*(1/6)*5) = 14.14 weeks
    Chance to see no drops in a week during farm = 14.14 * 0.0061 = 0.086
    Lets take a wild guess there are 1 mil players of which 1% are farming Logrey...
    No. Players seeing no drops in a week = 1000000 * 0.01 * 0.086 = 858
    Chance of being a complain on a forum type of person = 1%
    Number of complainers = 0.01 * 858 = 8.58

    If you count some of the complaints on this thread as sort of half complaints that's almost exactly the number we have!!!!!!

    Maths Jokes!!! Yay! :smiley:
  • Chance for there to be no drops in a week = (5/6)^28 = 0.0061
    Average time to farm = 330/(28*(1/6)*5) = 14.14 weeks
    Chance to see no drops in a week during farm = 14.14 * 0.0061 = 0.086
    Lets take a wild guess there are 1 mil players of which 1% are farming Logrey...
    No. Players seeing no drops in a week = 1000000 * 0.01 * 0.086 = 858
    Chance of being a complain on a forum type of person = 1%
    Number of complainers = 0.01 * 858 = 8.58

    If you count some of the complaints on this thread as sort of half complaints that's almost exactly the number we have!!!!!!

    Maths Jokes!!! Yay! :smiley:

    Math jokes don't work on the complainers. They don't understand math, drop rates, or statistics.
  • NicWester wrote: »
    Piewalker wrote: »
    Proof works both ways.
    No, actually, it doesn't. There's a burden of proof that only rests on one person, and it's the side that's making the extraordinary claim. Like, we can see drop rates if we track them long enough with enough of a sample size and we can see that they're consistently the same whether there's an event going on or not. If you're going to say that it's anything other than what's been established the burden of proof is on you to prove your claim, not on us to disprove yours or prove ours.

    So if we track them long enough with enough of a sample size...

    Great...Okay, so let’s get what 1,000(?) maybe 10,000(?) people to count occurrences in that slot for what, a week? a month? Without missing a refresh...and then still get someone (maybe you?) saying it’s not statistally significant enough for proof or pointing out that some people might be making some of their numbers up to help prove the point. Yes, that’s going to work really well isn’t it?! I’ll get right on that!

    CG were transparent about pack probabilities and so a simple statement from them saying there is no occurrence weighting mechanism might just be quicker and easier.

    Thanks anyway.
  • TVF
    9359 posts Member
    Piewalker wrote: »
    NicWester wrote: »
    Piewalker wrote: »
    Proof works both ways.
    No, actually, it doesn't. There's a burden of proof that only rests on one person, and it's the side that's making the extraordinary claim. Like, we can see drop rates if we track them long enough with enough of a sample size and we can see that they're consistently the same whether there's an event going on or not. If you're going to say that it's anything other than what's been established the burden of proof is on you to prove your claim, not on us to disprove yours or prove ours.

    So if we track them long enough with enough of a sample size...

    Great...Okay, so let’s get what 1,000(?) maybe 10,000(?) people to count occurrences in that slot for what, a week? a month? Without missing a refresh...and then still get someone (maybe you?) saying it’s not statistally significant enough for proof or pointing out that some people might be making some of their numbers up to help prove the point. Yes, that’s going to work really well isn’t it?! I’ll get right on that!

    CG were transparent about pack probabilities and so a simple statement from them saying there is no occurrence weighting mechanism might just be quicker and easier.

    Thanks anyway.

    There's a legal reason they did the pack odds.

    Just because you don't like what it would take to get a relevant sample size does not mean you can just ignore the need for it.
  • TVF wrote: »
    Piewalker wrote: »
    NicWester wrote: »
    Piewalker wrote: »
    Proof works both ways.
    No, actually, it doesn't. There's a burden of proof that only rests on one person, and it's the side that's making the extraordinary claim. Like, we can see drop rates if we track them long enough with enough of a sample size and we can see that they're consistently the same whether there's an event going on or not. If you're going to say that it's anything other than what's been established the burden of proof is on you to prove your claim, not on us to disprove yours or prove ours.

    So if we track them long enough with enough of a sample size...

    Great...Okay, so let’s get what 1,000(?) maybe 10,000(?) people to count occurrences in that slot for what, a week? a month? Without missing a refresh...and then still get someone (maybe you?) saying it’s not statistally significant enough for proof or pointing out that some people might be making some of their numbers up to help prove the point. Yes, that’s going to work really well isn’t it?! I’ll get right on that!

    CG were transparent about pack probabilities and so a simple statement from them saying there is no occurrence weighting mechanism might just be quicker and easier.

    Thanks anyway.

    There's a legal reason they did the pack odds.

    Just because you don't like what it would take to get a relevant sample size does not mean you can just ignore the need for it.

    Yes, organising that would be logistally challenging compared to the alternative and still no doubt be disputed. I get that CG aren’t legally obliged to be transparent on everything and therefore in this case the debate will go on (and on) therefore. 😞
  • Wicket is more important for 7 star imo
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