What is happening in this thread? Seems like some people don't understand betting, or what counts as "doing math"...
So, you’re wanting to get in on this and do some grinding?
Why do any grinding? Based on drop rates and refreshes we can estimate expected shards through both the packs and doing refreshes to determine relative value. Unless I am mistaken, this has already been done by multiple posters in this thread, so seems like we got an answer for OP, without wasting months on some [pointless to OP] experiment.
Oh, so you’re so sure of grinding normally for shards but are unwilling to actually wager and grind the shards? Why are you here?
I don't need to grind these shards, nor is there anything I would "wager" with some random internet poster.
Here to comment on a public forum, and this thread was about helping OP make a decision but has now turned into some odd rambling.
See the problem for me started when muppets told OP that he was actually closer to SLK, which he isn’t and then people started saying 1-3 refreshes were better than the 2450 pack.
I can stay on topic, can you?
Half your posts in this thread are about betting and wagering, so no, appears you cannot stay on topic. And you are wrong, refreshes have a higher expected value and come with more control over who you are farming. But hey, you can spend your crystals however you like, thats the beauty of this game.
Ok, if you’re skittish of wagering on your math and belief, then let’s do a friendly bet, no money, just bragging rights on the outcome.
So you are willing to spend enough crystals to come up with a reasonable sample size for average outcome from the packs? otherwise a bet is useless, and besides I don't need to grind for a month, people have already recorded data to back up my math.
What is happening in this thread? Seems like some people don't understand betting, or what counts as "doing math"...
So, you’re wanting to get in on this and do some grinding?
Why do any grinding? Based on drop rates and refreshes we can estimate expected shards through both the packs and doing refreshes to determine relative value. Unless I am mistaken, this has already been done by multiple posters in this thread, so seems like we got an answer for OP, without wasting months on some [pointless to OP] experiment.
Oh, so you’re so sure of grinding normally for shards but are unwilling to actually wager and grind the shards? Why are you here?
I don't need to grind these shards, nor is there anything I would "wager" with some random internet poster.
Here to comment on a public forum, and this thread was about helping OP make a decision but has now turned into some odd rambling.
See the problem for me started when muppets told OP that he was actually closer to SLK, which he isn’t and then people started saying 1-3 refreshes were better than the 2450 pack.
I can stay on topic, can you?
Half your posts in this thread are about betting and wagering, so no, appears you cannot stay on topic. And you are wrong, refreshes have a higher expected value and come with more control over who you are farming. But hey, you can spend your crystals however you like, thats the beauty of this game.
Ok, if you’re skittish of wagering on your math and belief, then let’s do a friendly bet, no money, just bragging rights on the outcome.
So you are willing to spend enough crystals to come up with a reasonable sample size for average outcome from the packs? otherwise a bet is useless, and besides I don't need to grind for a month, people have already recorded data to back up my math.
I’ve done it for JKR and know for a fact the pack was far better than normal grinding.
I have no shards for DR, so am willing to buy those packs against anyone willing to grind them the hard way to prove the packs are a great deal.
Doesn't sound like you are willing to buy enough packs to get a large enough sample size to prove your claim, too bad you aren't gonna put your money where your mouth is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
What is happening in this thread? Seems like some people don't understand betting, or what counts as "doing math"...
So, you’re wanting to get in on this and do some grinding?
Why do any grinding? Based on drop rates and refreshes we can estimate expected shards through both the packs and doing refreshes to determine relative value. Unless I am mistaken, this has already been done by multiple posters in this thread, so seems like we got an answer for OP, without wasting months on some [pointless to OP] experiment.
Oh, so you’re so sure of grinding normally for shards but are unwilling to actually wager and grind the shards? Why are you here?
I don't need to grind these shards, nor is there anything I would "wager" with some random internet poster.
Here to comment on a public forum, and this thread was about helping OP make a decision but has now turned into some odd rambling.
See the problem for me started when muppets told OP that he was actually closer to SLK, which he isn’t and then people started saying 1-3 refreshes were better than the 2450 pack.
I can stay on topic, can you?
Half your posts in this thread are about betting and wagering, so no, appears you cannot stay on topic. And you are wrong, refreshes have a higher expected value and come with more control over who you are farming. But hey, you can spend your crystals however you like, thats the beauty of this game.
Ok, if you’re skittish of wagering on your math and belief, then let’s do a friendly bet, no money, just bragging rights on the outcome.
So you are willing to spend enough crystals to come up with a reasonable sample size for average outcome from the packs? otherwise a bet is useless, and besides I don't need to grind for a month, people have already recorded data to back up my math.
I’ve done it for JKR and know for a fact the pack was far better than normal grinding.
I have no shards for DR, so am willing to buy those packs against anyone willing to grind them the hard way to prove the packs are a great deal.
Did you really just state something from CG is a "great deal"?
And it’s ironic that I’m actually arguing that CG created a good deal against a CGDF member that has no clue what they are even arguing for.
No, you are arguing against math
Cool, then you are willing to grind this out with me and see who has more shards sooner?
How many times do i need to say this: the grinding has already been done to calculate the drop rate, which is the evidence we need to estimate the value here.
And it’s ironic that I’m actually arguing that CG created a good deal against a CGDF member that has no clue what they are even arguing for.
No, you are arguing against math
Cool, then you are willing to grind this out with me and see who has more shards sooner?
How many times do i need to say this: the grinding has already been done to calculate the drop rate, which is the evidence we need to estimate the value here.
So, you’re saying CG has offered a pack that is a bad value?
In this case? Less valuable than traditional farming, but still better than buying shards from the store.
In general? Most of CGs packs are technically a good value when compared to the crystal exchange rate for the contents, but often not good value compared to farming the same things with refreshes.
fine you wanta be like this, lets show you why grinding is better than buying packs @ZAP
(F2P is a person who is getting crystals without buying them its simple)
2450 crystals is how much we got to spend so lets see who will get the most benefits, I'm only doing Juhani, Carth, and Badstila, since HK-47 and Ordo are free to play farm with no need of any crystals.
we are going to spend 75 crystal per day to refresh each node once that gives us 33 refreshes per 3 characters,
I have been grinding hard node characters for a long long time and every day i get 2 to 3 shards of a character in average per 5 battles, but lets say just say you will get 2 shard per refresh.
I also happen to get 2 purple salvage, 3 blue salvage and 5k credit on juhani's node,
5k credit and 2k ship credit and 2 purple salvage, 2 blue salvage, and 2 green salvage from Carth,
5k ship credit, 7k credits and 1.5 purple salvage and 3 blue salvage from Badstila,
So for Juani you get: 66 character shards, 66 purple salvage for relics, 99 blue salvage, and 165k credit.
For Carth you get: 66 character shards, 66 purple salvage, 66 blue salvage,66 green salvage, 165k credit and 66k ship credit.
For Badstila you get: 66 character shards, 49.5 purple salvage, 99 blue salvage, 231k credit and 165k ship credit.
the total you will get out of that 2450 crystal in 33 day is with 1 time refreshes is,
198 character shards,
181.5 purple salvage,
264 blue salvage,
66 green salvage,
561k credits,
231k ship credits.
or you go and buy the pack get 7 draws of 8 and 10 shards and a 25 character shard guaranteed while 40% will be of no use to you and end up getting roughly 100 or less usable shards.
You know since the event is no longer timed based you can take as much time as you want to farm these toons, and since they are no longer meta there is no urgency to spend money and to get them quicker, do your daily refreshes and don't waste the crystals OP, or do it i honestly don't care what others do with their stuff this is just a helpful advice
I think you overstate the value of 2450 crystals with normal farming, but it is still on average a better deal than the expected outcome of shards from the pack.
For 2450 crystals, you would get exactly 32 days of refreshes for each character, and then a day with a refresh on 2. That equates to 490 attempts at hard nodes with an expected drop rate of 33% (slightly lower than your estimates of 2 or 3 per 5 attempts). So, dividing 490 by 3 gives us an expected shards of 163.3
compared to the pack, which has 7 drops of and expected 11.627 shards each, plus the free character. That equates to 81.389 random shards plus an average of 36 shards from the completely free character (granted, if you draw HK it is more of a waste in this scenario, but that is hard to account for).
In conclusion, refreshing will net you 163 useful shards on average with 2450 crystals, while this pack will net you 117 random shards on average. In my opinion, if you are playing F2P then accepting the grind and maximizing you crystal value is the best move.
@jawa7778 figured i would tag you with the mathematical answer to you question:
The pack is a better deal than buying shards in the store, but worse than using crystals for 1 refresh per day.
Replies
So you are willing to spend enough crystals to come up with a reasonable sample size for average outcome from the packs? otherwise a bet is useless, and besides I don't need to grind for a month, people have already recorded data to back up my math.
Doesn't sound like you are willing to buy enough packs to get a large enough sample size to prove your claim, too bad you aren't gonna put your money where your mouth is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
No, you are arguing against math
Did you really just state something from CG is a "great deal"?
DISCLAIMER: Post is subject to change.
How many times do i need to say this: the grinding has already been done to calculate the drop rate, which is the evidence we need to estimate the value here.
In this case? Less valuable than traditional farming, but still better than buying shards from the store.
In general? Most of CGs packs are technically a good value when compared to the crystal exchange rate for the contents, but often not good value compared to farming the same things with refreshes.
@jawa7778 figured i would tag you with the mathematical answer to you question:
The pack is a better deal than buying shards in the store, but worse than using crystals for 1 refresh per day.
Good luck with the grind!
Closing this to stop the bickering.