2450 crystals / 75 shards = 32 crystals per shard. (Assuming @Its_not_a_moon is correct on the number of expected shards.)
The math that I did was correct, but since I didn't do the math for shards expected from the pack I was wrong to say that 2 refreshes per day is the better crystal value. If you're maintaining 2 refreshes per day per node, then the pack is a deal, according to the math presented by @Its_not_a_moon for expected shards.
If you're only maintaining 1 node refresh per day, the pack is about the same cost per shard as the node refreshes + extra energy to make use of them. In that case, you don't save any crystals, but you do get the toons up to 7* quicker.
You can choose whether it's more valuable to splurge and get there faster or to keep on your steady pace, use about the same amount of crystals, but because you don't drop a single crystal bomb all at once it makes it easier to maintain a stash for emergencies (like an unexpected double drop event). Since it's the same cost, I'd say spend the crystals and get the farm done sooner.
And, of course, if you're not spending any crystals on node refresh, then there's no point in buying the pack. Any cost is greater than zero, and you obviously aren't in much of a rush.
Hey everyone. So, I've been saving my crystals to buy the shard pack for Darth Revan. I'm talking about the 2450 pack that gives one guaranteed character and 8 character shards. I'm prepared to buy the pack, but I'm now hesitant and want a second opinion. Here are the reasons I am hesitant:
1. I have low crystal income and it will take me several weeks to get back to a high amount of crystals.
2. I'm not actually sure if the pack is worth the investment. I'll link to my roster below.
3. I have other interests. In a recent forum discussion(https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/227893/darth-revan-or-slkr#latest) I had some forum members help me decide between Darth Revan and SLKR. However, I still want SLKR one day. Diverting such a large amount of crystals to Darth Revan will impact my SLKR farming for months.
4. My fleet arena will suffer(Kinda) Seeing as how I'm grinding for SLKR, I'm running a FO team in fleet arena. Almost all the FO characters have ships and are required for SLKR, so I'm killing two birds with one stone. If I stop gearing up my FO characters, my fleet arena will stall. I've already seen big differences since I brought my KRU up to relic 5. It's a complicated decision for me.
Thanks for reading this very long post. Note: I posted a message similar to this a few hours ago but it disappeared after I made an edit to it; so I decided to repost.
Here's my roster: https://swgoh.gg/p/725233668/characters/
The first question I have is, why make another thread that’s basically the same as your first thread? Did you not like the answers you got the first time?
My answer is the same as it was in your other thread. You will have neither DR or SLK in the next 2 months, but you could have a maxed workable DR team much faster than you could get SLK and still be working on gear for SLK in the meantime.
The answer to your first question is right at the end of his post.
The end of his post talks about a post he made hours ago, but he made a post days ago about the same thing.
I'm old, I don't remember what I had for breakfast let alone what was posted days ago
I’m probably older than you, so keep up or get out of the way.
I, for one, can’t wait to hear all the reasons why itsnotamoon is wrong
Hey don't mess with the name its:
Its_not_a_moon, not itsnotamoon
No disrespect, just too hard to type all that on phone lol
Hey everyone. So, I've been saving my crystals to buy the shard pack for Darth Revan. I'm talking about the 2450 pack that gives one guaranteed character and 8 character shards. I'm prepared to buy the pack, but I'm now hesitant and want a second opinion. Here are the reasons I am hesitant:
1. I have low crystal income and it will take me several weeks to get back to a high amount of crystals.
2. I'm not actually sure if the pack is worth the investment. I'll link to my roster below.
3. I have other interests. In a recent forum discussion(https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/227893/darth-revan-or-slkr#latest) I had some forum members help me decide between Darth Revan and SLKR. However, I still want SLKR one day. Diverting such a large amount of crystals to Darth Revan will impact my SLKR farming for months.
4. My fleet arena will suffer(Kinda) Seeing as how I'm grinding for SLKR, I'm running a FO team in fleet arena. Almost all the FO characters have ships and are required for SLKR, so I'm killing two birds with one stone. If I stop gearing up my FO characters, my fleet arena will stall. I've already seen big differences since I brought my KRU up to relic 5. It's a complicated decision for me.
Thanks for reading this very long post. Note: I posted a message similar to this a few hours ago but it disappeared after I made an edit to it; so I decided to repost.
Here's my roster: https://swgoh.gg/p/725233668/characters/
The first question I have is, why make another thread that’s basically the same as your first thread? Did you not like the answers you got the first time?
My answer is the same as it was in your other thread. You will have neither DR or SLK in the next 2 months, but you could have a maxed workable DR team much faster than you could get SLK and still be working on gear for SLK in the meantime.
The answer to your first question is right at the end of his post.
The end of his post talks about a post he made hours ago, but he made a post days ago about the same thing.
I'm old, I don't remember what I had for breakfast let alone what was posted days ago
I’m probably older than you, so keep up or get out of the way.
I, for one, can’t wait to hear all the reasons why itsnotamoon is wrong
Please bet with it’s a moon, would love to take your money.
I’m willing to make a small wager, nothing too big, just for bragging rights, that the pack in question has a greater value than grinding shards with refreshes. We can come to terms with how many refreshes and how long we will do this.
Any takers, please please let Giffy take the bet.
Oh.
Idk, what exactly is the pack? I don’t think I can see it as I have all these chars (cough. 😎😉)
Then why are you posting here when you have no idea what’s being discussed?
Save your K gifs for layups son
crystals for shards are almost never better than crystals for refreshes, as a rule.
if, as op said, it's 8(??) shards plus an unlock then it is not worth it. If, as it seems to read now that he put the offer in the op, it's at least 7 shard "sets" which I can only assume are 7 tries at the 5-50 (not 330, btw, as the guy you quoted said) of each, plus an unlock, that's at least better, assuming starting from scratch. But op has 7* hk and 2* dbast, so I still don't think it's worth it. Someone would have to do all the math and factor in the energy/attempts etc to really know, and there's always a chance op could get more than 5 per char, however low that is.
Yeah, you still haven’t shown your # for crystals per shard at 1,2 and 3 refreshes.
Yes I did. If you can't work a spoiler tag that says a lot about you, but nothing about whether or not I've omitted cost per shard at 2 or 3 refreshes.
You’ve also discounted who of the 5 are on which nodes, which affects crystal cost.
I didn't specify who was on which node b/c I didn't care to look it up. What I did instead was give a range of crystal costs per shard where energy cost per attempt was one variable.
But again, if you can't bother to read the math in the spoiler tag labeled "Math", then you probably shouldn't be accusing people of neglecting the math.
You can't even acknowledge that you accused me of omitting math that I actually did. If you can't be honest about what other people are saying, why should anyone take you seriously.
Apologize for the false accusation and maybe I'll reply to you again. If not, bye bye.
What is happening in this thread? Seems like some people don't understand betting, or what counts as "doing math"...
So, you’re wanting to get in on this and do some grinding?
Why do any grinding? Based on drop rates and refreshes we can estimate expected shards through both the packs and doing refreshes to determine relative value. Unless I am mistaken, this has already been done by multiple posters in this thread, so seems like we got an answer for OP, without wasting months on some [pointless to OP] experiment.
Oof, this derailed. I don’t think a “head start” happens in true experiments.
OP, I would go the route you feel will give you the most fun. This is a game, after all. I run CLS in a 2016 shard, found my place at around 200, and have fun playing. This is just how I play the game, and considering that people here who commit a lot of energy are generally negative, I would suggest just doing you.
What is happening in this thread? Seems like some people don't understand betting, or what counts as "doing math"...
So, you’re wanting to get in on this and do some grinding?
Why do any grinding? Based on drop rates and refreshes we can estimate expected shards through both the packs and doing refreshes to determine relative value. Unless I am mistaken, this has already been done by multiple posters in this thread, so seems like we got an answer for OP, without wasting months on some [pointless to OP] experiment.
Oh, so you’re so sure of grinding normally for shards but are unwilling to actually wager and grind the shards? Why are you here?
I don't need to grind these shards, nor is there anything I would "wager" with some random internet poster.
Here to comment on a public forum, and this thread was about helping OP make a decision but has now turned into some odd rambling.
fine you wanta be like this, lets show you why grinding is better than buying packs @ZAP
(F2P is a person who is getting crystals without buying them its simple)
2450 crystals is how much we got to spend so lets see who will get the most benefits, I'm only doing Juhani, Carth, and Badstila, since HK-47 and Ordo are free to play farm with no need of any crystals.
we are going to spend 75 crystal per day to refresh each node once that gives us 33 refreshes per 3 characters,
I have been grinding hard node characters for a long long time and every day i get 2 to 3 shards of a character in average per 5 battles, but lets say just say you will get 2 shard per refresh.
I also happen to get 2 purple salvage, 3 blue salvage and 5k credit on juhani's node,
5k credit and 2k ship credit and 2 purple salvage, 2 blue salvage, and 2 green salvage from Carth,
5k ship credit, 7k credits and 1.5 purple salvage and 3 blue salvage from Badstila,
So for Juani you get: 66 character shards, 66 purple salvage for relics, 99 blue salvage, and 165k credit.
For Carth you get: 66 character shards, 66 purple salvage, 66 blue salvage,66 green salvage, 165k credit and 66k ship credit.
For Badstila you get: 66 character shards, 49.5 purple salvage, 99 blue salvage, 231k credit and 165k ship credit.
the total you will get out of that 2450 crystal in 33 day is with 1 time refreshes is,
198 character shards,
181.5 purple salvage,
264 blue salvage,
66 green salvage,
561k credits,
231k ship credits.
or you go and buy the pack get 7 draws of 8 and 10 shards and a 25 character shard guaranteed while 40% will be of no use to you and end up getting roughly 100 or less usable shards.
You know since the event is no longer timed based you can take as much time as you want to farm these toons, and since they are no longer meta there is no urgency to spend money and to get them quicker, do your daily refreshes and don't waste the crystals OP, or do it i honestly don't care what others do with their stuff this is just a helpful advice
I think you overstate the value of 2450 crystals with normal farming, but it is still on average a better deal than the expected outcome of shards from the pack.
For 2450 crystals, you would get exactly 32 days of refreshes for each character, and then a day with a refresh on 2. That equates to 490 attempts at hard nodes with an expected drop rate of 33% (slightly lower than your estimates of 2 or 3 per 5 attempts). So, dividing 490 by 3 gives us an expected shards of 163.3
compared to the pack, which has 7 drops of and expected 11.627 shards each, plus the free character. That equates to 81.389 random shards plus an average of 36 shards from the completely free character (granted, if you draw HK it is more of a waste in this scenario, but that is hard to account for).
In conclusion, refreshing will net you 163 useful shards on average with 2450 crystals, while this pack will net you 117 random shards on average. In my opinion, if you are playing F2P then accepting the grind and maximizing you crystal value is the best move.
What is happening in this thread? Seems like some people don't understand betting, or what counts as "doing math"...
So, you’re wanting to get in on this and do some grinding?
Why do any grinding? Based on drop rates and refreshes we can estimate expected shards through both the packs and doing refreshes to determine relative value. Unless I am mistaken, this has already been done by multiple posters in this thread, so seems like we got an answer for OP, without wasting months on some [pointless to OP] experiment.
Oh, so you’re so sure of grinding normally for shards but are unwilling to actually wager and grind the shards? Why are you here?
I don't need to grind these shards, nor is there anything I would "wager" with some random internet poster.
Here to comment on a public forum, and this thread was about helping OP make a decision but has now turned into some odd rambling.
See the problem for me started when muppets told OP that he was actually closer to SLK, which he isn’t and then people started saying 1-3 refreshes were better than the 2450 pack.
I can stay on topic, can you?
Half your posts in this thread are about betting and wagering, so no, appears you cannot stay on topic. And you are wrong, refreshes have a higher expected value and come with more control over who you are farming. But hey, you can spend your crystals however you like, thats the beauty of this game.
Replies
The math that I did was correct, but since I didn't do the math for shards expected from the pack I was wrong to say that 2 refreshes per day is the better crystal value. If you're maintaining 2 refreshes per day per node, then the pack is a deal, according to the math presented by @Its_not_a_moon for expected shards.
If you're only maintaining 1 node refresh per day, the pack is about the same cost per shard as the node refreshes + extra energy to make use of them. In that case, you don't save any crystals, but you do get the toons up to 7* quicker.
You can choose whether it's more valuable to splurge and get there faster or to keep on your steady pace, use about the same amount of crystals, but because you don't drop a single crystal bomb all at once it makes it easier to maintain a stash for emergencies (like an unexpected double drop event). Since it's the same cost, I'd say spend the crystals and get the farm done sooner.
And, of course, if you're not spending any crystals on node refresh, then there's no point in buying the pack. Any cost is greater than zero, and you obviously aren't in much of a rush.
But it's up to you. Good luck.
A bold assumption.
What are your conditions here?
Might be the issue.
crystals for shards are almost never better than crystals for refreshes, as a rule.
if, as op said, it's 8(??) shards plus an unlock then it is not worth it. If, as it seems to read now that he put the offer in the op, it's at least 7 shard "sets" which I can only assume are 7 tries at the 5-50 (not 330, btw, as the guy you quoted said) of each, plus an unlock, that's at least better, assuming starting from scratch. But op has 7* hk and 2* dbast, so I still don't think it's worth it. Someone would have to do all the math and factor in the energy/attempts etc to really know, and there's always a chance op could get more than 5 per char, however low that is.
but he should go for slkr anyway, so who cares
tl;dr:
Yes I did. If you can't work a spoiler tag that says a lot about you, but nothing about whether or not I've omitted cost per shard at 2 or 3 refreshes.
I didn't specify who was on which node b/c I didn't care to look it up. What I did instead was give a range of crystal costs per shard where energy cost per attempt was one variable.
But again, if you can't bother to read the math in the spoiler tag labeled "Math", then you probably shouldn't be accusing people of neglecting the math.
Were you even for serious with that comment?
You can't even acknowledge that you accused me of omitting math that I actually did. If you can't be honest about what other people are saying, why should anyone take you seriously.
Apologize for the false accusation and maybe I'll reply to you again. If not, bye bye.
Not sure the OP wants to wait that long. But, hey, if this is a hill you wanna die on....
DISCLAIMER: Post is subject to change.
Why do any grinding? Based on drop rates and refreshes we can estimate expected shards through both the packs and doing refreshes to determine relative value. Unless I am mistaken, this has already been done by multiple posters in this thread, so seems like we got an answer for OP, without wasting months on some [pointless to OP] experiment.
OP, I would go the route you feel will give you the most fun. This is a game, after all. I run CLS in a 2016 shard, found my place at around 200, and have fun playing. This is just how I play the game, and considering that people here who commit a lot of energy are generally negative, I would suggest just doing you.
I don't need to grind these shards, nor is there anything I would "wager" with some random internet poster.
Here to comment on a public forum, and this thread was about helping OP make a decision but has now turned into some odd rambling.
I think you overstate the value of 2450 crystals with normal farming, but it is still on average a better deal than the expected outcome of shards from the pack.
For 2450 crystals, you would get exactly 32 days of refreshes for each character, and then a day with a refresh on 2. That equates to 490 attempts at hard nodes with an expected drop rate of 33% (slightly lower than your estimates of 2 or 3 per 5 attempts). So, dividing 490 by 3 gives us an expected shards of 163.3
compared to the pack, which has 7 drops of and expected 11.627 shards each, plus the free character. That equates to 81.389 random shards plus an average of 36 shards from the completely free character (granted, if you draw HK it is more of a waste in this scenario, but that is hard to account for).
In conclusion, refreshing will net you 163 useful shards on average with 2450 crystals, while this pack will net you 117 random shards on average. In my opinion, if you are playing F2P then accepting the grind and maximizing you crystal value is the best move.
Half your posts in this thread are about betting and wagering, so no, appears you cannot stay on topic. And you are wrong, refreshes have a higher expected value and come with more control over who you are farming. But hey, you can spend your crystals however you like, thats the beauty of this game.