I've seen quite a few reports now, and almost no one got over 4%. Those that did are small batches. I myself got 33 with 1100 energy, 3%. I think we have enough evidence to be confident the drop rate is NOT 4%. Probably 3% or 3.5%.
Each sim is an independent roll with a 4% chance, which is why there is a variance
I thought it was based on Energy used not number of Sims?
oh right, my bad, each sim is an independent roll with (4*energy used)%
It should be 4%, but so far this thread is proving otherwise
Just Like every drop rate! Underwhelming.
How on earth do you % on energy spent over x number of sims. Is it something like below?
If I pull 1 sim 16 energy = max 1 20% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 32 energy = max 2 20% chance of drop
If I pull 1 sim 8 energy = max 1 10% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 16 energy = max 2 10% chance of drop
You mention (4*energy used)%, this can’t be right??? Maybe energy spent = % chance of drop per sim? E.g 16 energy node = 16% chance of drop
I think you are misunderstanding how binomial distributions work. So if you sim 16 energy nodes, at 4% per energy you would have a 64% chance of pulling a shard per sim. That means that if 100 people simmed the node one time, we would expect 64 of them to have pulled a shard.
That why it looses me, then on 16 energy node if I have 64% chance every pull that seems like great odds and not at all what people are seeing.
This was my experience, I did 75 sims on a 16 energy node and only got 34 shards. Which comes out to ~45% drop rate so far.
Each sim is an independent roll with a 4% chance, which is why there is a variance
I thought it was based on Energy used not number of Sims?
oh right, my bad, each sim is an independent roll with (4*energy used)%
It should be 4%, but so far this thread is proving otherwise
Just Like every drop rate! Underwhelming.
How on earth do you % on energy spent over x number of sims. Is it something like below?
If I pull 1 sim 16 energy = max 1 20% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 32 energy = max 2 20% chance of drop
If I pull 1 sim 8 energy = max 1 10% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 16 energy = max 2 10% chance of drop
You mention (4*energy used)%, this can’t be right??? Maybe energy spent = % chance of drop per sim? E.g 16 energy node = 16% chance of drop
I think you are misunderstanding how binomial distributions work. So if you sim 16 energy nodes, at 4% per energy you would have a 64% chance of pulling a shard per sim. That means that if 100 people simmed the node one time, we would expect 64 of them to have pulled a shard.
That why it looses me, then on 16 energy node if I have 64% chance every pull that seems like great odds and not at all what people are seeing.
It seems clear that people are only seeing a 3% or so per energy drop.
But we also don't know that all people are doing 16 energy nodes. On a 12, even 4% would be 48%, etc.
Each sim is an independent roll with a 4% chance, which is why there is a variance
I thought it was based on Energy used not number of Sims?
oh right, my bad, each sim is an independent roll with (4*energy used)%
It should be 4%, but so far this thread is proving otherwise
Just Like every drop rate! Underwhelming.
How on earth do you % on energy spent over x number of sims. Is it something like below?
If I pull 1 sim 16 energy = max 1 20% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 32 energy = max 2 20% chance of drop
If I pull 1 sim 8 energy = max 1 10% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 16 energy = max 2 10% chance of drop
You mention (4*energy used)%, this can’t be right??? Maybe energy spent = % chance of drop per sim? E.g 16 energy node = 16% chance of drop
I think you are misunderstanding how binomial distributions work. So if you sim 16 energy nodes, at 4% per energy you would have a 64% chance of pulling a shard per sim. That means that if 100 people simmed the node one time, we would expect 64 of them to have pulled a shard.
That why it looses me, then on 16 energy node if I have 64% chance every pull that seems like great odds and not at all what people are seeing.
It seems clear that people are only seeing a 3% or so per energy drop.
But we also don't know that all people are doing 16 energy nodes. On a 12, even 4% would be 48%, etc.
The node shouldn't matter. It's supposed to be 4% across the board, but seems that they lowered it to 3% without notice.
Each sim is an independent roll with a 4% chance, which is why there is a variance
I thought it was based on Energy used not number of Sims?
oh right, my bad, each sim is an independent roll with (4*energy used)%
It should be 4%, but so far this thread is proving otherwise
Just Like every drop rate! Underwhelming.
How on earth do you % on energy spent over x number of sims. Is it something like below?
If I pull 1 sim 16 energy = max 1 20% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 32 energy = max 2 20% chance of drop
If I pull 1 sim 8 energy = max 1 10% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 16 energy = max 2 10% chance of drop
You mention (4*energy used)%, this can’t be right??? Maybe energy spent = % chance of drop per sim? E.g 16 energy node = 16% chance of drop
I think you are misunderstanding how binomial distributions work. So if you sim 16 energy nodes, at 4% per energy you would have a 64% chance of pulling a shard per sim. That means that if 100 people simmed the node one time, we would expect 64 of them to have pulled a shard.
That why it looses me, then on 16 energy node if I have 64% chance every pull that seems like great odds and not at all what people are seeing.
It seems clear that people are only seeing a 3% or so per energy drop.
But we also don't know that all people are doing 16 energy nodes. On a 12, even 4% would be 48%, etc.
Yeah that’s what I’d like to know, this “per energy” should mean higher the node you should get better chance overall,
I used 16 energy nodes
29 from 864 = 3.33% by energy
54 pulls = 53% of pulls it dropped
Each sim is an independent roll with a 4% chance, which is why there is a variance
I thought it was based on Energy used not number of Sims?
oh right, my bad, each sim is an independent roll with (4*energy used)%
It should be 4%, but so far this thread is proving otherwise
Just Like every drop rate! Underwhelming.
How on earth do you % on energy spent over x number of sims. Is it something like below?
If I pull 1 sim 16 energy = max 1 20% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 32 energy = max 2 20% chance of drop
If I pull 1 sim 8 energy = max 1 10% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 16 energy = max 2 10% chance of drop
You mention (4*energy used)%, this can’t be right??? Maybe energy spent = % chance of drop per sim? E.g 16 energy node = 16% chance of drop
I think you are misunderstanding how binomial distributions work. So if you sim 16 energy nodes, at 4% per energy you would have a 64% chance of pulling a shard per sim. That means that if 100 people simmed the node one time, we would expect 64 of them to have pulled a shard.
That why it looses me, then on 16 energy node if I have 64% chance every pull that seems like great odds and not at all what people are seeing.
It seems clear that people are only seeing a 3% or so per energy drop.
But we also don't know that all people are doing 16 energy nodes. On a 12, even 4% would be 48%, etc.
The node shouldn't matter. It's supposed to be 4% across the board, but seems that they lowered it to 3% without notice.
It shouldn't but it might. I'd be interested to see the rates for anyone exclusively farming the 12 energy nodes
Each sim is an independent roll with a 4% chance, which is why there is a variance
I thought it was based on Energy used not number of Sims?
oh right, my bad, each sim is an independent roll with (4*energy used)%
It should be 4%, but so far this thread is proving otherwise
Just Like every drop rate! Underwhelming.
How on earth do you % on energy spent over x number of sims. Is it something like below?
If I pull 1 sim 16 energy = max 1 20% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 32 energy = max 2 20% chance of drop
If I pull 1 sim 8 energy = max 1 10% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 16 energy = max 2 10% chance of drop
You mention (4*energy used)%, this can’t be right??? Maybe energy spent = % chance of drop per sim? E.g 16 energy node = 16% chance of drop
I think you are misunderstanding how binomial distributions work. So if you sim 16 energy nodes, at 4% per energy you would have a 64% chance of pulling a shard per sim. That means that if 100 people simmed the node one time, we would expect 64 of them to have pulled a shard.
That why it looses me, then on 16 energy node if I have 64% chance every pull that seems like great odds and not at all what people are seeing.
It seems clear that people are only seeing a 3% or so per energy drop.
But we also don't know that all people are doing 16 energy nodes. On a 12, even 4% would be 48%, etc.
The node shouldn't matter. It's supposed to be 4% across the board, but seems that they lowered it to 3% without notice.
It shouldn't but it might. I'd be interested to see the rates for anyone exclusively farming the 12 energy nodes
I'll be doing 12's for a bit. Kyle drop rates will determine if I jump back to 16's or not. 29/100 on Kyle so I probably won't finish before the chase is over.
Each sim is an independent roll with a 4% chance, which is why there is a variance
I thought it was based on Energy used not number of Sims?
oh right, my bad, each sim is an independent roll with (4*energy used)%
It should be 4%, but so far this thread is proving otherwise
Just Like every drop rate! Underwhelming.
How on earth do you % on energy spent over x number of sims. Is it something like below?
If I pull 1 sim 16 energy = max 1 20% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 32 energy = max 2 20% chance of drop
If I pull 1 sim 8 energy = max 1 10% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 16 energy = max 2 10% chance of drop
You mention (4*energy used)%, this can’t be right??? Maybe energy spent = % chance of drop per sim? E.g 16 energy node = 16% chance of drop
I think you are misunderstanding how binomial distributions work. So if you sim 16 energy nodes, at 4% per energy you would have a 64% chance of pulling a shard per sim. That means that if 100 people simmed the node one time, we would expect 64 of them to have pulled a shard.
That why it looses me, then on 16 energy node if I have 64% chance every pull that seems like great odds and not at all what people are seeing.
It seems clear that people are only seeing a 3% or so per energy drop.
But we also don't know that all people are doing 16 energy nodes. On a 12, even 4% would be 48%, etc.
The node shouldn't matter. It's supposed to be 4% across the board, but seems that they lowered it to 3% without notice.
Each sim is an independent roll with a 4% chance, which is why there is a variance
I thought it was based on Energy used not number of Sims?
oh right, my bad, each sim is an independent roll with (4*energy used)%
It should be 4%, but so far this thread is proving otherwise
Just Like every drop rate! Underwhelming.
How on earth do you % on energy spent over x number of sims. Is it something like below?
If I pull 1 sim 16 energy = max 1 20% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 32 energy = max 2 20% chance of drop
If I pull 1 sim 8 energy = max 1 10% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 16 energy = max 2 10% chance of drop
You mention (4*energy used)%, this can’t be right??? Maybe energy spent = % chance of drop per sim? E.g 16 energy node = 16% chance of drop
I think you are misunderstanding how binomial distributions work. So if you sim 16 energy nodes, at 4% per energy you would have a 64% chance of pulling a shard per sim. That means that if 100 people simmed the node one time, we would expect 64 of them to have pulled a shard.
That why it looses me, then on 16 energy node if I have 64% chance every pull that seems like great odds and not at all what people are seeing.
It seems clear that people are only seeing a 3% or so per energy drop.
But we also don't know that all people are doing 16 energy nodes. On a 12, even 4% would be 48%, etc.
The node shouldn't matter. It's supposed to be 4% across the board, but seems that they lowered it to 3% without notice.
Maybe
Maybe not
Indeed. Hence "seems that they lowered," and not "they lowered."
Each sim is an independent roll with a 4% chance, which is why there is a variance
I thought it was based on Energy used not number of Sims?
oh right, my bad, each sim is an independent roll with (4*energy used)%
It should be 4%, but so far this thread is proving otherwise
Just Like every drop rate! Underwhelming.
How on earth do you % on energy spent over x number of sims. Is it something like below?
If I pull 1 sim 16 energy = max 1 20% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 32 energy = max 2 20% chance of drop
If I pull 1 sim 8 energy = max 1 10% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 16 energy = max 2 10% chance of drop
You mention (4*energy used)%, this can’t be right??? Maybe energy spent = % chance of drop per sim? E.g 16 energy node = 16% chance of drop
I think you are misunderstanding how binomial distributions work. So if you sim 16 energy nodes, at 4% per energy you would have a 64% chance of pulling a shard per sim. That means that if 100 people simmed the node one time, we would expect 64 of them to have pulled a shard.
That why it looses me, then on 16 energy node if I have 64% chance every pull that seems like great odds and not at all what people are seeing.
It seems clear that people are only seeing a 3% or so per energy drop.
But we also don't know that all people are doing 16 energy nodes. On a 12, even 4% would be 48%, etc.
The node shouldn't matter. It's supposed to be 4% across the board, but seems that they lowered it to 3% without notice.
It shouldn't but it might. I'd be interested to see the rates for anyone exclusively farming the 12 energy nodes
I'll be doing 12's for a bit. Kyle drop rates will determine if I jump back to 16's or not. 29/100 on Kyle so I probably won't finish before the chase is over.
Oh, I didn't realize he was on a 12 energy node, thanks. I'll pivot from Talon to Kyle and see if I can get a little better drop rate...
Swear to god guys I have some magic galactic chase luck. Last neg run in was getting crazy drops but for this one I don’t care as I don’t have res or their ships. But I will go hard on FO ship
Each sim is an independent roll with a 4% chance, which is why there is a variance
I thought it was based on Energy used not number of Sims?
oh right, my bad, each sim is an independent roll with (4*energy used)%
It should be 4%, but so far this thread is proving otherwise
Just Like every drop rate! Underwhelming.
How on earth do you % on energy spent over x number of sims. Is it something like below?
If I pull 1 sim 16 energy = max 1 20% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 32 energy = max 2 20% chance of drop
If I pull 1 sim 8 energy = max 1 10% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 16 energy = max 2 10% chance of drop
You mention (4*energy used)%, this can’t be right??? Maybe energy spent = % chance of drop per sim? E.g 16 energy node = 16% chance of drop
I think you are misunderstanding how binomial distributions work. So if you sim 16 energy nodes, at 4% per energy you would have a 64% chance of pulling a shard per sim. That means that if 100 people simmed the node one time, we would expect 64 of them to have pulled a shard.
That why it looses me, then on 16 energy node if I have 64% chance every pull that seems like great odds and not at all what people are seeing.
It seems clear that people are only seeing a 3% or so per energy drop.
But we also don't know that all people are doing 16 energy nodes. On a 12, even 4% would be 48%, etc.
The node shouldn't matter. It's supposed to be 4% across the board, but seems that they lowered it to 3% without notice.
It shouldn't but it might. I'd be interested to see the rates for anyone exclusively farming the 12 energy nodes
Spent around 1600 energy on 12 node Kyle. 3% for me.
Each sim is an independent roll with a 4% chance, which is why there is a variance
I thought it was based on Energy used not number of Sims?
oh right, my bad, each sim is an independent roll with (4*energy used)%
It should be 4%, but so far this thread is proving otherwise
Just Like every drop rate! Underwhelming.
How on earth do you % on energy spent over x number of sims. Is it something like below?
If I pull 1 sim 16 energy = max 1 20% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 32 energy = max 2 20% chance of drop
If I pull 1 sim 8 energy = max 1 10% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 16 energy = max 2 10% chance of drop
You mention (4*energy used)%, this can’t be right??? Maybe energy spent = % chance of drop per sim? E.g 16 energy node = 16% chance of drop
I think you are misunderstanding how binomial distributions work. So if you sim 16 energy nodes, at 4% per energy you would have a 64% chance of pulling a shard per sim. That means that if 100 people simmed the node one time, we would expect 64 of them to have pulled a shard.
That why it looses me, then on 16 energy node if I have 64% chance every pull that seems like great odds and not at all what people are seeing.
It seems clear that people are only seeing a 3% or so per energy drop.
But we also don't know that all people are doing 16 energy nodes. On a 12, even 4% would be 48%, etc.
The node shouldn't matter. It's supposed to be 4% across the board, but seems that they lowered it to 3% without notice.
I'm responding to the person who is wanting to look at the per battle rate. In that case the node does matter if you are trying to calculate it. But it's per energy, so like you say, using that as the denominator doesn’t matter.
Each sim is an independent roll with a 4% chance, which is why there is a variance
I thought it was based on Energy used not number of Sims?
oh right, my bad, each sim is an independent roll with (4*energy used)%
It should be 4%, but so far this thread is proving otherwise
Just Like every drop rate! Underwhelming.
How on earth do you % on energy spent over x number of sims. Is it something like below?
If I pull 1 sim 16 energy = max 1 20% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 32 energy = max 2 20% chance of drop
If I pull 1 sim 8 energy = max 1 10% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 16 energy = max 2 10% chance of drop
You mention (4*energy used)%, this can’t be right??? Maybe energy spent = % chance of drop per sim? E.g 16 energy node = 16% chance of drop
I think you are misunderstanding how binomial distributions work. So if you sim 16 energy nodes, at 4% per energy you would have a 64% chance of pulling a shard per sim. That means that if 100 people simmed the node one time, we would expect 64 of them to have pulled a shard.
That why it looses me, then on 16 energy node if I have 64% chance every pull that seems like great odds and not at all what people are seeing.
It seems clear that people are only seeing a 3% or so per energy drop.
But we also don't know that all people are doing 16 energy nodes. On a 12, even 4% would be 48%, etc.
Yeah that’s what I’d like to know, this “per energy” should mean higher the node you should get better chance overall,
I used 16 energy nodes
29 from 864 = 3.33% by energy
54 pulls = 53% of pulls it dropped
You get a better chance per sim, but at higher energy, you are doing fewer sims. So it shouldn't matter which node you do.
Could those who want to contribute please stop using 'about' and 'around?' We're trying to crunch numbers here not guestimate. Just look at and jot down your energy and number of shards before simming and afterwards.
It's unreliable reporting when someone gets 'about 40' in '400 or so' energy and thus reports a 5% rate. If that was actually 20 shards (per your screenshot) in 460 energy that's a 4.3% drop rate and only 1 or 2 standard deviations from the norm. Hard to believe and include as reputable data an approximation that's 3 standard deviations from the sample mean experienced by others.
Replies
This was my experience, I did 75 sims on a 16 energy node and only got 34 shards. Which comes out to ~45% drop rate so far.
It seems clear that people are only seeing a 3% or so per energy drop.
But we also don't know that all people are doing 16 energy nodes. On a 12, even 4% would be 48%, etc.
The node shouldn't matter. It's supposed to be 4% across the board, but seems that they lowered it to 3% without notice.
Yeah that’s what I’d like to know, this “per energy” should mean higher the node you should get better chance overall,
I used 16 energy nodes
29 from 864 = 3.33% by energy
54 pulls = 53% of pulls it dropped
It shouldn't but it might. I'd be interested to see the rates for anyone exclusively farming the 12 energy nodes
I'll be doing 12's for a bit. Kyle drop rates will determine if I jump back to 16's or not. 29/100 on Kyle so I probably won't finish before the chase is over.
Good lord that’s 80% of your pulls dropped 1, shame this only happens for 1 out of every 100 people
Nice job
Maybe
Maybe not
yeah
Indeed. Hence "seems that they lowered," and not "they lowered."
Oh, I didn't realize he was on a 12 energy node, thanks. I'll pivot from Talon to Kyle and see if I can get a little better drop rate...
Spent around 1600 energy on 12 node Kyle. 3% for me.
17/536 - 3.17%
Both were done on 16 energy nodes.
12 Energy Nodes reward 36% of the time on a 3% Drop rate so its close to what it should be.
Drop Rate per Sim will vary per level of Cantina
At 3% each energy cost would be....
8 = 24%
10 = 30%
12 = 36%
16 = 48%
Its only day 1 but at this rate what we are seeing, the forums is averaging WAY below the previous expected rates.
I'm responding to the person who is wanting to look at the per battle rate. In that case the node does matter if you are trying to calculate it. But it's per energy, so like you say, using that as the denominator doesn’t matter.
You get a better chance per sim, but at higher energy, you are doing fewer sims. So it shouldn't matter which node you do.
It's unreliable reporting when someone gets 'about 40' in '400 or so' energy and thus reports a 5% rate. If that was actually 20 shards (per your screenshot) in 460 energy that's a 4.3% drop rate and only 1 or 2 standard deviations from the norm. Hard to believe and include as reputable data an approximation that's 3 standard deviations from the sample mean experienced by others.
Well, not bad, but can you pull 6 out of 5?
I see this, and raise you.