With a 3% per energy drop rate, a player that buys 3 cantina refreshes per day anyway will get around 75 shards after 5 days. Not bad compared to what you get for a Marquee.
it should be 4% for cantina tho
2% for other energy tables
I think people are just having a bad first day, and it should average out over the course of the next few days
As a mathematician, this is cringe. You can assert that this is not a sufficiently large enough sample size, but I would still disagree with you. A 'bad day' is not something that happens with normal distributions.
By three or so days if it's still around 3.0% I'm pretty sure anyone with any stats background would say the sample size is sufficiently large to draw conclusions about the actual population and we can say with a good degree of certainly what the drop rate is.
With a 3% per energy drop rate, a player that buys 3 cantina refreshes per day anyway will get around 75 shards after 5 days. Not bad compared to what you get for a Marquee.
it should be 4% for cantina tho
2% for other energy tables
I think people are just having a bad first day, and it should average out over the course of the next few days
As a mathematician, this is cringe. You can assert that this is not a sufficiently large enough sample size, but I would still disagree with you. A 'bad day' is not something that happens with normal distributions.
By three or so days if it's still around 3.5% I'm pretty sure anyone with any stats background would say the sample size is sufficiently large to draw conclusions about the actual population and we can say with a good degree of certainly what the drop rate is.
A bad day doesn’t happen but also if it doesn’t even out over the next few days it will then be a large enough sample size?
A bad day doesn’t happen but also if it doesn’t even out over the next few days it will then be a large enough sample size?
My assertion was that the sample is already sufficiently large, and that the rate holding steady at 3% will prove that to be the case and that we can conclude with statistical certainty with a small alpha value the actual drop rate is 3%
Small sample size of 468 energy, 13 shards (2.78%).
I'm just wondering why it's not set to a straight 4%.
But I'm looking forward to those guaranteed 5.5% drop rates moving forward!
Small sample size of 468 energy, 13 shards (2.78%).
I'm just wondering why it's not set to a straight 4%.
But I'm looking forward to those guaranteed 5.5% drop rates moving forward!
what do you mean by straight 4%
Each sim is an independent roll with a 4% chance, which is why there is a variance
Thing of it is, we have how many thousands of players not reporting their results because they don't do the forum or are lurkers?
The point of sampling is to get enough data from a large sample to be able to draw conclusions about the entire population within a degree of certainty (alpha value, usually 5%-.5% for medical/health outcome stats). Those who are regular posters who came with with just a large sample (3-5 refreshes worth of crystals all in one shot generally) can likely be trusted to be reliable. They're not here to complain nor brag, just helping with data collection.
Yes reporting error is a thing, and as such screenshots of small samples like StewartH's (no offense) should not be factored in, as they took and posted the screenshot because they fell outside of a normal expected outcome (in this case a very favorable drop rate, but salty players that got 0/1 shards in 20 sims should also be excluded from the sample set, unless they also reported their other 4-5 average and/or slightly above average outcomes).
Each sim is an independent roll with a 4% chance, which is why there is a variance
I thought it was based on Energy used not number of Sims?
oh right, my bad, each sim is an independent roll with (4*energy used)%
It should be 4%, but so far this thread is proving otherwise
Just Like every drop rate! Underwhelming.
How on earth do you % on energy spent over x number of sims. Is it something like below?
If I pull 1 sim 16 energy = max 1 20% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 32 energy = max 2 20% chance of drop
If I pull 1 sim 8 energy = max 1 10% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 16 energy = max 2 10% chance of drop
You mention (4*energy used)%, this can’t be right??? Maybe energy spent = % chance of drop per sim? E.g 16 energy node = 16% chance of drop
Each sim is an independent roll with a 4% chance, which is why there is a variance
I thought it was based on Energy used not number of Sims?
oh right, my bad, each sim is an independent roll with (4*energy used)%
It should be 4%, but so far this thread is proving otherwise
Just Like every drop rate! Underwhelming.
How on earth do you % on energy spent over x number of sims. Is it something like below?
If I pull 1 sim 16 energy = max 1 20% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 32 energy = max 2 20% chance of drop
If I pull 1 sim 8 energy = max 1 10% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 16 energy = max 2 10% chance of drop
You mention (4*energy used)%, this can’t be right??? Maybe energy spent = % chance of drop per sim? E.g 16 energy node = 16% chance of drop
I think you are misunderstanding how binomial distributions work. So if you sim 16 energy nodes, at 4% per energy you would have a 64% chance of pulling a shard per sim. That means that if 100 people simmed the node one time, we would expect 64 of them to have pulled a shard.
So, I don't know what nodes others are simming, but mine were on 12 energy ones. That means if you go by sims instead of energy, I got 33.3%, which is a normal character drop rate. I wonder if they forgot to put in the Galactic Chase mechanics and just did it as regular drop rate?
Each sim is an independent roll with a 4% chance, which is why there is a variance
I thought it was based on Energy used not number of Sims?
oh right, my bad, each sim is an independent roll with (4*energy used)%
It should be 4%, but so far this thread is proving otherwise
Just Like every drop rate! Underwhelming.
How on earth do you % on energy spent over x number of sims. Is it something like below?
If I pull 1 sim 16 energy = max 1 20% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 32 energy = max 2 20% chance of drop
If I pull 1 sim 8 energy = max 1 10% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 16 energy = max 2 10% chance of drop
You mention (4*energy used)%, this can’t be right??? Maybe energy spent = % chance of drop per sim? E.g 16 energy node = 16% chance of drop
I think you are misunderstanding how binomial distributions work. So if you sim 16 energy nodes, at 4% per energy you would have a 64% chance of pulling a shard per sim. That means that if 100 people simmed the node one time, we would expect 64 of them to have pulled a shard.
That why it looses me, then on 16 energy node if I have 64% chance every pull that seems like great odds and not at all what people are seeing.
Replies
By far the best run of 20 I've ever had factoring in the Omi.
I'm sure that rate will even out some over the course of the chase.
As a mathematician, this is cringe. You can assert that this is not a sufficiently large enough sample size, but I would still disagree with you. A 'bad day' is not something that happens with normal distributions.
By three or so days if it's still around 3.0% I'm pretty sure anyone with any stats background would say the sample size is sufficiently large to draw conclusions about the actual population and we can say with a good degree of certainly what the drop rate is.
A bad day doesn’t happen but also if it doesn’t even out over the next few days it will then be a large enough sample size?
My assertion was that the sample is already sufficiently large, and that the rate holding steady at 3% will prove that to be the case and that we can conclude with statistical certainty with a small alpha value the actual drop rate is 3%
I'm just wondering why it's not set to a straight 4%.
But I'm looking forward to those guaranteed 5.5% drop rates moving forward!
what do you mean by straight 4%
Each sim is an independent roll with a 4% chance, which is why there is a variance
So I am just 4 characters away from Starkiller
The point of sampling is to get enough data from a large sample to be able to draw conclusions about the entire population within a degree of certainty (alpha value, usually 5%-.5% for medical/health outcome stats). Those who are regular posters who came with with just a large sample (3-5 refreshes worth of crystals all in one shot generally) can likely be trusted to be reliable. They're not here to complain nor brag, just helping with data collection.
Yes reporting error is a thing, and as such screenshots of small samples like StewartH's (no offense) should not be factored in, as they took and posted the screenshot because they fell outside of a normal expected outcome (in this case a very favorable drop rate, but salty players that got 0/1 shards in 20 sims should also be excluded from the sample set, unless they also reported their other 4-5 average and/or slightly above average outcomes).
1 / 64
3 / 112
3 / 128
0 / 112
7 / 416
1.7%
864 energy and got 24 shards
Oh man and I thought mine was bad. I spent 1200 energy and got 34 shards for ~ 2.8% drop rate. I hope yours improves!
oh right, my bad, each sim is an independent roll with (4*energy used)%
It should be 4%, but so far this thread is proving otherwise
Burn the witch!
Got 11 Shards.
2.218% drop Rate.
Just Like every drop rate! Underwhelming.
How on earth do you % on energy spent over x number of sims. Is it something like below?
If I pull 1 sim 16 energy = max 1 20% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 32 energy = max 2 20% chance of drop
If I pull 1 sim 8 energy = max 1 10% chance of drop
If I pull 2 sim 16 energy = max 2 10% chance of drop
You mention (4*energy used)%, this can’t be right??? Maybe energy spent = % chance of drop per sim? E.g 16 energy node = 16% chance of drop
I think you are misunderstanding how binomial distributions work. So if you sim 16 energy nodes, at 4% per energy you would have a 64% chance of pulling a shard per sim. That means that if 100 people simmed the node one time, we would expect 64 of them to have pulled a shard.
5.36%. Nice.
That why it looses me, then on 16 energy node if I have 64% chance every pull that seems like great odds and not at all what people are seeing.