IDK - I personally think it is a bit more nebulous then people say. Mostly because several posters have shown a consistent amount of streakiness.
@Nikoms565 do you remember that guy who had posted the computation charts showing consistent streaks of "wins" within the RNG?
He argued that it's how really randomized numbers tend towards it -- but to a human it looks awfully suspicious. Something like 3/3 - 2/3 - 03 - 1/3 - 2/3 - then it deteriorates to 1/3-0/3-1/3-0/3-0/3-1/3 - before kind of cycling back.
Personally -- I needed to finish Plo Kloon and my drop rate was 42%. I've never farmed 39 shards so fast. I'm on to finishing TFP now but my % is 22%. Personally, regarding toon shards, it's been VERY consistent. I have 0 complaints, I put X energy in and I usually just under X/3 shards out of it.
Flip of the coin. However, on the flip of the coin... I find gear rates to be horrendous, and have given up spending any energy/refreshes for reg energy. 0 cuffs on 240 energy too many times... human expectation failure or not, it HAS succeeded on getting me to give up refreshes to farm gear.
Characters like Ayala and B2 are known to have a lower droprate. Sadly I don't have any data for them .
If you don't have data, how are they shown to be lower?
Most people/guilds who have done extensive data collection have found shard drop rates to be almost universally constant (30-33%), regardless of node, method (i.e. multi-sim vs. single sim) or character.
Personal experience. It took me longer to farm Ayala even when I got her unlocked via Chromium as opposed to other characters whom I started out with zero. I didn't increase the number of cantina refreshes but it could've been bad RNG since it's not the same for everyone.
I have had decent luck. I have farmed DT exclusively through double drop period up through 200 crystal refreshes. I went from 5 stars to 75/100 right now. About 25 of those were obtained through shard shop so I got about 150 shards out of roughly 180 sims.
☮ Consular ☮American Rebel Rebel Force (Endor)JedhaYavin IV
I've been farming B2 during the event, and it has been a mix of great and awful, with an average that would probably be close to 30%. But if I just go by my feelings, I remember the terrible drop rates yesterday much more strongly than the good and great drop rates of the prior two days.
I also remember having quite good luck with TFP shards when he was new, even while the forums were full of complaints that they must have nerfed drops on him specifically because he was new and desirable.
IDK - I personally think it is a bit more nebulous then people say. Mostly because several posters have shown a consistent amount of streakiness.
@Nikoms565 do you remember that guy who had posted the computation charts showing consistent streaks of "wins" within the RNG?
He argued that it's how really randomized numbers tend towards it -- but to a human it looks awfully suspicious. Something like 3/3 - 2/3 - 03 - 1/3 - 2/3 - then it deteriorates to 1/3-0/3-1/3-0/3-0/3-1/3 - before kind of cycling back.
Personally -- I needed to finish Plo Kloon and my drop rate was 42%. I've never farmed 39 shards so fast. I'm on to finishing TFP now but my % is 22%. Personally, regarding toon shards, it's been VERY consistent. I have 0 complaints, I put X energy in and I usually just under X/3 shards out of it.
Flip of the coin. However, on the flip of the coin... I find gear rates to be horrendous, and have given up spending any energy/refreshes for reg energy. 0 cuffs on 240 energy too many times... human expectation failure or not, it HAS succeeded on getting me to give up refreshes to farm gear.
I know what you are referring to - but I can't find it and don't remember who posted it. It was all math-based though - so I might have mentally blocked it out...like you do a nightmare.
IIRC, it has to do with probability vs. percentage and how human beings perceive short and long runs differently. One point being that human beings remember the "bad" runs better than the good - but that, especially when dealing with probabilities of less than 50%, even the decent runs "feel" bad.
There were also the math-heavy portion about RNG producing longer "bad" runs over even decent sample sizes - and that in situations where the probability is lower than 50%, those will naturally be longer.
In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie
In game guild: TNR Uprising I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
Can I interest you in a whaaburger and some french cries
Hahaha..haha.ha.........HAH.
You people with your little quirky insults must feel soooo better about yourselves. The OP did a little test monitoring the drop rates for a few day and asked a question...instead he/she receives a bunch of insults.
Check it...there is a time for insults and there is a time for appropriate reponses.
Let me guess mom and dad worked a lot as you were kids and you all were raised by the T.V. instead. Bunch of brain dead dummies.
great insult, do you feel better about yourself now?
Stuff like this gets threads closed, wich seems to be the opposite of what you want. maybe follow your own advice in the future..
I only insult when it is appropriate.
To answer your question if I feel better about myself? The answer is no I don't. I hate trying to make a person think before saying something stupidd. Parents should have raised their kids the right way..instead I have to become the Internet bad guy authority figure and put them in their places.
Let's be real here..it's not like your response to me made this discussion any better and it's not like I started the whole insult thing in the first place.
OP asked a question..and people begin belittling him/her with insults. If I seen someone getting talked to like that in real life I'm the kind of person that will step in and do something about it. I wouldn't pic up my phone, start recording and post it on the internet like the majority of brain dead people would do in the world.
aah, the internet bad guy authority figure who puts people in their place. How's that working out for you? I can only assume it's not counterproductive at all haha.
I only pointed out that insults, regardless of whether the insult is warrented or not, is a great way to get threads closed. If you want the OP to be heard, you're not helping him by "sticking up for him" the way you did.
you might be that kinda person, but on the internet you're only that guy who says he is that kinda person. In my experience people who are that kinda person usually don't feel the need to point out to others on the internet that they are that kinda person, they just are that kinda person.
but hey, i might be a 12yo with a keyboard
My name is a reflection of my personality. I am just brutally honest. I don't have to make up things to make people think I'm something that I am not. I'll just leave it at that and people can assume or believe whatever they want, that's fine by me.
I did pretty well on DT shards (would guess around 35%)... I'm surprised no one is talking about the drop rate on Omegas from that farm. I got 4 (2 drops) so far from the start of the double drops with all my energy and 2 refreshes a day. Same or less from all but 1 of my guildies in regards to the Omega drops. So I'm guessing we're in a crazy unlucky bubble and the rest of you now have dozens of omegas?
I will not be able to continue tracking drops for DT because I will not be farming DT shards anymore. Sometimes you reach a point when enough is enough and in my case 149 tries were enough. I hope that DT is useful at 5* at least in arena, since raids are out of the question, and if I will bother even gearing him up.
I just came to this realisation this morning as well. Seemingly the worst drop rates Ive ever encountered for a character and buggered if Im wasting cantina energy on him anymore
I did pretty well on DT shards (would guess around 35%)... I'm surprised no one is talking about the drop rate on Omegas from that farm. I got 4 (2 drops) so far from the start of the double drops with all my energy and 2 refreshes a day. Same or less from all but 1 of my guildies in regards to the Omega drops. So I'm guessing we're in a crazy unlucky bubble and the rest of you now have dozens of omegas?
Nope - the fact that you have any is amazing. The drop rate for Omegas is almost nothing. This has been discussed numerous times on the boards.
In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie
In game guild: TNR Uprising I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
To the guy who said B2 is "known" to be lower... I have 330 data points to add to that equation. It came out to about 34%.
My previous farm, Wedge, was about 33%.
Kylo has been about 34% since I satrted farming him a few weeks ago, including during double drops.
I'll have the complete numbers next week when I'm on my normal computer at work.
Thank you for keeping track of the data. I know it's tedious work - but it is appreciated.
In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie
In game guild: TNR Uprising I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
Okay but like......... isn't it weird that whenever people sit down and calculate what their drop rate is its always inexplicably lower than 33%? Shouldn't an equal number of people be able to attest to a rate higher than 33% and at 33%?
Find the "I tracked over 2000 drops thread".
Hint: It's not lower than 33%
Find the thread by cosmicturtle, where the entire guild recorded and tracked Drop rates for Rey.
Hint: it's 32.7% - within margin of error.
The only time it's lower than 33% is when people post extremely limited sample sizes that amount to anecdote. Whenever data is tracked and recorded over a statistically significant sample size, it has always pointed to 33% - that's why "everybody says it".
I farmed Old Ben from cantina nodes. Farming Kylo was roughly 1.5x as expensive.
IDK - I personally think it is a bit more nebulous then people say. Mostly because several posters have shown a consistent amount of streakiness.
@Nikoms565 do you remember that guy who had posted the computation charts showing consistent streaks of "wins" within the RNG?
He argued that it's how really randomized numbers tend towards it -- but to a human it looks awfully suspicious. Something like 3/3 - 2/3 - 03 - 1/3 - 2/3 - then it deteriorates to 1/3-0/3-1/3-0/3-0/3-1/3 - before kind of cycling back.
Personally -- I needed to finish Plo Kloon and my drop rate was 42%. I've never farmed 39 shards so fast. I'm on to finishing TFP now but my % is 22%. Personally, regarding toon shards, it's been VERY consistent. I have 0 complaints, I put X energy in and I usually just under X/3 shards out of it.
Flip of the coin. However, on the flip of the coin... I find gear rates to be horrendous, and have given up spending any energy/refreshes for reg energy. 0 cuffs on 240 energy too many times... human expectation failure or not, it HAS succeeded on getting me to give up refreshes to farm gear.
I know what you are referring to - but I can't find it and don't remember who posted it. It was all math-based though - so I might have mentally blocked it out...like you do a nightmare.
IIRC, it has to do with probability vs. percentage and how human beings perceive short and long runs differently. One point being that human beings remember the "bad" runs better than the good - but that, especially when dealing with probabilities of less than 50%, even the decent runs "feel" bad.
There were also the math-heavy portion about RNG producing longer "bad" runs over even decent sample sizes - and that in situations where the probability is lower than 50%, those will naturally be longer.
Thank you. It was nightmarish. I just remember the drop rate being weirdly cyclical and the guy defending that this is how random numbers really look. Clearly, the problem with random stuff.... is that it is indeed random.
I kind of think people people posting their 33% which, while it might be the actual drop rate, isn't a promise to anyone that they'll get 33 shards on 100 tries.
Would we like to get a "bit" of a gear with every attempt, 3 "bits" equal 1 piece. Then you'd be certain to end up with 33.3 gear on 100 attempts. Devs could clearly do that, probably be easier and less headaches on this board if they did. But guaranteed drops remove the gambling factor.
'Cause, you know, four letter curse words and chatting in a guild are bad for minors, but building up a tendency for gambling and exploiting a want for short term gains is okay.
So now that the double drops have finished this are my final results. After spending 3400 crystals on refreshes I received 90 DT shards and 36 Kylo shards. Also I collected from cantina store 74 shards of Poe and QGJ.
I don't know about anyone else, but it's always seemed to me that the number of sims you do affects the probability. If I roll 1 sim it seems I never get anything, if I roll 2 sims I almost always get 1, if I roll anywhere from 4-8 sims I'll get about half of the number of sims, and if I roll 8+ I have awful success rates. Just a seemingly odd observation with no data.
I don't know about anyone else, but it's always seemed to me that the number of sims you do affects the probability. If I roll 1 sim it seems I never get anything, if I roll 2 sims I almost always get 1, if I roll anywhere from 4-8 sims I'll get about half of the number of sims, and if I roll 8+ I have awful success rates. Just a seemingly odd observation with no data.
Mos def! I sim one at a time and have horrible results. I sim 20 at once and have horrible results. I sim 3 at a time and only have bad results.
It was not bad drops for us all. My drop rate was around 45 to 50% in the cantina. It helped that I am not doing tfp anymore. That toon has the worst drops in game for me
140 attempts is a drop in the bucket to measure accurately a proper sample on RNG. this has been covered on dozens of posts to the same conclusion.
assuming I'm remembering my statistics class correctly there's a 0.97% chance of only getting 33/140 if the expected amount was 47/140
Can you please type the formula? I read something similar on a statistic site, but a cannot remember the site anymore and it drives me crazy. I could be useful toon to evaluate possible future farms
yeah that's great and all but most people aren't flush enough to sit around dumping enough $$ into the game to arrive at your precious milestone -- and maybe by the time they've reached a couple/few hundred they're over it.
I didn't write either of the threads. Just providing real information.
140 attempts is a drop in the bucket to measure accurately a proper sample on RNG. this has been covered on dozens of posts to the same conclusion.
assuming I'm remembering my statistics class correctly there's a 0.97% chance of only getting 33/140 if the expected amount was 47/140
Can you please type the formula? I read something similar on a statistic site, but a cannot remember the site anymore and it drives me crazy. I could be useful toon to evaluate possible future farms
There is not really any way to estimate this (or know the percent chance of this happening) without access to statistics like the standard deviation. Simply given a nebulous average from hearsay and no sample size, there is no way to calculate this.
yeah that's great and all but most people aren't flush enough to sit around dumping enough $$ into the game to arrive at your precious milestone -- and maybe by the time they've reached a couple/few hundred they're over it.
I didn't write either of the threads. Just providing real information.
My bad, the second thread comes up with 30% cantina drop rate - not 33%.
Lol @cosmicturtle333 would be thrilled to see he is still remembered around these parts..
I have a shrine...and it's surrounded by Nightsister Statues.
Well that's definitely not creepy
Lol! Miss you brother! Good to know that you still drop in every now and then. I don't have a Pikachu, but I do try to correct confirmation bias and tin foil hat conspiracy theories where I see them.
May the Force be with you.
In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie
In game guild: TNR Uprising I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
yeah that's great and all but most people aren't flush enough to sit around dumping enough $$ into the game to arrive at your precious milestone -- and maybe by the time they've reached a couple/few hundred they're over it.
I didn't write either of the threads. Just providing real information.
My bad, the second thread comes up with 30% cantina drop rate - not 33%.
Lol @cosmicturtle333 would be thrilled to see he is still remembered around these parts..
I have a shrine...and it's surrounded by Nightsister Statues.
Well that's definitely not creepy
Lol! Miss you brother! Good to know that you still drop in every now and then. I don't have a Pikachu, but I do try to correct confirmation bias and tin foil hat conspiracy theories where I see them.
May the Force be with you.
Glad to know that my teachings will be passed on to future generations so that they may lean the knowledge of RNGeesus.
May the Force be with you, always.
My name is cosmicturtle333, aka CT-333, aka Threes.
Replies
The biggest study has it at 30% (29.78)
@Nikoms565 do you remember that guy who had posted the computation charts showing consistent streaks of "wins" within the RNG?
He argued that it's how really randomized numbers tend towards it -- but to a human it looks awfully suspicious. Something like 3/3 - 2/3 - 03 - 1/3 - 2/3 - then it deteriorates to 1/3-0/3-1/3-0/3-0/3-1/3 - before kind of cycling back.
Personally -- I needed to finish Plo Kloon and my drop rate was 42%. I've never farmed 39 shards so fast. I'm on to finishing TFP now but my % is 22%. Personally, regarding toon shards, it's been VERY consistent. I have 0 complaints, I put X energy in and I usually just under X/3 shards out of it.
Flip of the coin. However, on the flip of the coin... I find gear rates to be horrendous, and have given up spending any energy/refreshes for reg energy. 0 cuffs on 240 energy too many times... human expectation failure or not, it HAS succeeded on getting me to give up refreshes to farm gear.
Personal experience. It took me longer to farm Ayala even when I got her unlocked via Chromium as opposed to other characters whom I started out with zero. I didn't increase the number of cantina refreshes but it could've been bad RNG since it's not the same for everyone.
I also remember having quite good luck with TFP shards when he was new, even while the forums were full of complaints that they must have nerfed drops on him specifically because he was new and desirable.
I know what you are referring to - but I can't find it and don't remember who posted it. It was all math-based though - so I might have mentally blocked it out...like you do a nightmare.
IIRC, it has to do with probability vs. percentage and how human beings perceive short and long runs differently. One point being that human beings remember the "bad" runs better than the good - but that, especially when dealing with probabilities of less than 50%, even the decent runs "feel" bad.
There were also the math-heavy portion about RNG producing longer "bad" runs over even decent sample sizes - and that in situations where the probability is lower than 50%, those will naturally be longer.
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
My name is a reflection of my personality. I am just brutally honest. I don't have to make up things to make people think I'm something that I am not. I'll just leave it at that and people can assume or believe whatever they want, that's fine by me.
I just came to this realisation this morning as well. Seemingly the worst drop rates Ive ever encountered for a character and buggered if Im wasting cantina energy on him anymore
Nope - the fact that you have any is amazing. The drop rate for Omegas is almost nothing. This has been discussed numerous times on the boards.
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
My previous farm, Wedge, was about 33%.
Kylo has been about 34% since I satrted farming him a few weeks ago, including during double drops.
I'll have the complete numbers next week when I'm on my normal computer at work.
-Sun Tzu
Thank you for keeping track of the data. I know it's tedious work - but it is appreciated.
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
Life's a garden, dig it!
I farmed Old Ben from cantina nodes. Farming Kylo was roughly 1.5x as expensive.
Thank you. It was nightmarish. I just remember the drop rate being weirdly cyclical and the guy defending that this is how random numbers really look. Clearly, the problem with random stuff.... is that it is indeed random.
I kind of think people people posting their 33% which, while it might be the actual drop rate, isn't a promise to anyone that they'll get 33 shards on 100 tries.
Would we like to get a "bit" of a gear with every attempt, 3 "bits" equal 1 piece. Then you'd be certain to end up with 33.3 gear on 100 attempts. Devs could clearly do that, probably be easier and less headaches on this board if they did. But guaranteed drops remove the gambling factor.
'Cause, you know, four letter curse words and chatting in a guild are bad for minors, but building up a tendency for gambling and exploiting a want for short term gains is okay.
Lower drop rate, double drops! Same thing. Go spend those crystals!
Mos def! I sim one at a time and have horrible results. I sim 20 at once and have horrible results. I sim 3 at a time and only have bad results.
Can you please type the formula? I read something similar on a statistic site, but a cannot remember the site anymore and it drives me crazy. I could be useful toon to evaluate possible future farms
Well that's definitely not creepy
There is not really any way to estimate this (or know the percent chance of this happening) without access to statistics like the standard deviation. Simply given a nebulous average from hearsay and no sample size, there is no way to calculate this.
Lol!
May the Force be with you.
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
Glad to know that my teachings will be passed on to future generations so that they may lean the knowledge of RNGeesus.
May the Force be with you, always.
@Nikoms565 As promised, here are my data:
B2 farm, 09 Feb - 03 April:
12 energy node (obviously)
11,160 energy spent, 930 attempts, 330 shards pulled, 35.48% drop rate.
Kylo farm, 03-18 April:
10 energy node
5050 energy spent, 505 attempts, 299 shards pulled, 59.2% drop rate (double drops included) and 36.44% drop rate (double drops corrected).
I just began JKA on his 16 energy node so I'll report on that in a few months when I'm done with him.
-Sun Tzu