Track everything for a while and you’ll see you get the same mediocre drops as everyone else.
If we suggest that random numbers in the game are really random or close to it, you make the incorrect assumption. The game has huge player base, and probability laws says that there is a high probability that some amount of extremely unlucky and extremely lucky players exists. And those who are unlucky doesn't care about some "average" numbers, obviously. They also can't have hope that they "catch up" in the future, because, due to the same laws, the probability of future drops isn't linked with past.
Of course there will be unlucky people. And there will be lucky people. But it averages out over time. Nobody is unlucky 100% of the time.
"It [always] averages out over time" is mathematically false assumption. People who are unlucky on the long run CAN exist. It's just the fact. Yes, the probability is low. But low is not zero. And the more people play the game - the higher the probability that such players will actually exist. So you can't just tell every one who claims to be unlucky "hey, you are lying". Yes, you can ask him for additional evidence (which is good question). Or you can say that it's his own problem and doesn't matter for anyone else (which is completely true). But saying that everyone who says about bad luck are liars or biased isn't very constructive position.
Find me a person who flips a coin and gets tails 1000 times in a row, and I’ll show you a liar or a cheater. “Luck” does average out over time. There is such a thing as mathematically impossible.
Besides, nobody has come in here with 1000 drops tracked and complained about rigged rates. I’d take that seriously, and assume something dishonest was taking place. Either them or the devs.
People are crying about a dozen rolls, or a bad day. That’s total garbage to base a grand conspiracy on.
People are getting bad drop rates whether you all like it or not! And we don't have to show you any proof. There's enough of us(who doubt know each other) saying it for it to be probable. Even if someone did provide data you would probably say it was fake. Lol.
Hundreds of players come on here saying 2x0=0, that’s more than enough “evidence”! It’s not like only 1or 2 players are saying it
2x0=0 is in fact true. I don't even need evidence about that. That's just a mathemetical reality. It's also completely irrelevant to actual drop rates. Some days you get 0 drops (and x2 = 0), and some days you get 2-3 (or even 5 like I got this morning) and x2 is 4-6 (or 10).
People are getting bad drop rates whether you all like it or not! And we don't have to show you any proof. There's enough of us(who doubt know each other) saying it for it to be probable. Even if someone did provide data you would probably say it was fake. Lol.
That's not how the world works. If you allege someone is cheating you or in this case "changing the drop rate" then the burden is on you to prove it. And everyone is asking you for your proof to see if there is any credence to your claim, that is natural when someone alleges some wrongful act.
People are getting bad drop rates whether you all like it or not!
Nobody said you aren’t getting bad drops. You are also getting good drops, and mediocre drops. We are saying that isn’t proof of a wider truth on its own.
Even if someone did provide data you would probably say it was fake. Lol.
Yeah. I would pick it apart and try to find every flaw I could. That’s science. You come up with an idea, and then try to prove it wrong. Then you show others what you did, and they try to prove it wrong. After hundreds of people have done their best to destroy a theory, and it survives then we start to sort of kind of believe it’s probably true, or at least we’ve figured out something that’s close to true.
And I see some of these points. I am a strong supporter of science and data...
OK, so you see the point people make, then? Finally.
... but in this case I've had people in my guild experience this multiple times. I myself have experienced this many times and blew it off as my mind playing tricks on me but upon closer inspection it seems to be some type of rigged system to a certain extent. I'm seeing others on these forums and reddit say the same things.
Did you see any of them post solid evidence supporting their claims?
That being the case an investigation is warranted.
I'm looking forward to seeing the results of your investigation. Will you be posting them in this discussion?
You can keep looking forward to that investigation, buddy. Haha. Burden of proof isn't on me. I could discourage others from playing because of my experience. I gain nothing by investigating. CG is who would lose money. You think I would put in the time and effort for the likes of you? They got the code. Not me. You all post like you're smart but you really aren't that bright. No... I'll just post whenever I experience horrible drops and warn people of it and advise they not play.
People are getting bad drop rates whether you all like it or not!
Nobody questions, that it happens, when considering only a small number of attempts/battles. However, small sample sizes are irrelevant, when discussing your OP.
And we don't have to show you any proof.
It's your claim, which goes against the existing evidence. If you want people to believe you, you do need to provide evidence of your claim, yes.
There's enough of us(who doubt know each other) saying it for it to be probable.
Yet, none of you provided any evidence, which makes it improbable.
Even if someone did provide data you would probably say it was fake. Lol.
Only one way to find out, really, dear man of science.
You can keep looking forward to that investigation, buddy. Haha. Burden of proof isn't on me. I could discourage others from playing because of my experience. I gain nothing by investigating. CG is who would lose money. You think I would put in the time and effort for the likes of you? They got the code. Not me. You all post like you're smart but you really aren't that bright. No... I'll just post whenever I experience horrible drops and warn people of it and advise they not play.
Just curious, will you post when you have great drops and encourage people to play more?
Donoff, seems like you would favor the swindler. You can't leave it up to people/corporations to be honest! Corporations have given people cancer or any number of diseases and illnesses and so many people have died not challenging a corporation. No one's dying here but multiple people are experiencing the same thing. And this is only the people who bothered to say anything at all. Could be a glitch and only affect a small portion of players but you don't know that. You know who could find out? CG...
You can keep looking forward to that investigation, buddy. Haha. Burden of proof isn't on me. I could discourage others from playing because of my experience. I gain nothing by investigating. CG is who would lose money. You think I would put in the time and effort for the likes of you? They got the code. Not me. You all post like you're smart but you really aren't that bright. No... I'll just post whenever I experience horrible drops and warn people of it and advise they not play.
So you admit you are going to purposefully leave out relevant data to deceive people to act in line with your agenda to do harm to CG?
Also telling people they “aren’t bright” is insulting and against the forum guidelines.
Donoff, seems like you would favor the swindler. You can't leave it up to people/corporations to be honest! Corporations have given people cancer or any number of diseases and illnesses and so many people have died not challenging a corporation. No one's dying here but multiple people are experiencing the same thing. And this is only the people who bothered to say anything at all. Could be a glitch and only affect a small portion of players but you don't know that. You know who could find out? CG...
that's why the burdon of proof lies with the accuser, like @Dnoff423 said...
Donoff, seems like you would favor the swindler. You can't leave it up to people/corporations to be honest! Corporations have given people cancer or any number of diseases and illnesses and so many people have died not challenging a corporation. No one's dying here but multiple people are experiencing the same thing. And this is only the people who bothered to say anything at all. Could be a glitch and only affect a small portion of players but you don't know that. You know who could find out? CG...
As I said before, you are completely wrong about how to approach this. You don’t ask a corporation you suspect of dishonesty to provide proof of their innocence. They will mysteriously find that they are innocent 100% of the time.
An outsider has to investigate. And you are in a prime position to do that if you feel it affects you. Track your own drops. Tell others who share your experience to track theirs. Compile the data. Then go through legal channels with the evidence you collect.
As it is the only thing you said is that you experienced EXACTLY what happens when thousands and thousands and thousands of people do something random a small number of times. A few people have below average outcomes in the short term. A bunch will have close to average. A few will have above average outcomes.
If you want sympathy that you had bad drops then I’m genuinely sorry. It sucks getting a bad break. If you want someone to confirm you inaccurate way of looking at the world I have nothing for you.
Track everything for a while and you’ll see you get the same mediocre drops as everyone else.
If we suggest that random numbers in the game are really random or close to it, you make the incorrect assumption. The game has huge player base, and probability laws says that there is a high probability that some amount of extremely unlucky and extremely lucky players exists. And those who are unlucky doesn't care about some "average" numbers, obviously. They also can't have hope that they "catch up" in the future, because, due to the same laws, the probability of future drops isn't linked with past.
Of course there will be unlucky people. And there will be lucky people. But it averages out over time. Nobody is unlucky 100% of the time.
"It [always] averages out over time" is mathematically false assumption. People who are unlucky on the long run CAN exist. It's just the fact. Yes, the probability is low. But low is not zero. And the more people play the game - the higher the probability that such players will actually exist. So you can't just tell every one who claims to be unlucky "hey, you are lying". Yes, you can ask him for additional evidence (which is good question). Or you can say that it's his own problem and doesn't matter for anyone else (which is completely true). But saying that everyone who says about bad luck are liars or biased isn't very constructive position.
Saying it's a false assumption is, itself, deceptive.
There is no such thing as statistical proof. But there is absolutely a difference in the strength of statistical evidence.
It does always average out over time. What varies is how long "over time" is and what "average out" means. Yes, a bad run will bring down your average forever, and you will not magically get better drop rates to compensate. But that bad run will be diluted in a large sample set such that its impact is reduced, and your overall results are proportionately brought closer to the average.
Yes, there's always theoretically a chance of anomalous behavior, but the larger the sample size the more remote the chance of behavior so anomalous that it throws your averages outside of a meaningful approximation of the drop rate, to a point where the possibility becomes so remote that bringing it up is just trolling.
You're like the year one psyche student pulling the, "Ah, but you can't prove it," "Ah, but every time Achilles reaches the turtle's location, the turtle's already moved so he'll never catch the tortoise," shenanigans. That's not insight. That's trolling. In reality, Achilles is going to pass the tortoise, sufficiently large data sets converge near the average, and the suggestion that some people have a low luck stat that changes the odds of a fair die is not reasonable just because it cannot be proven impossible.
Now, that said? Confirmation bias is real. Confirmation bias exists. Confirmation bias skews perception and blows the assessment of tiny sample sizes out of proportion. Someone concluding that the dice are rigged because of skewed perception as a result of confirmation bias or tiny data sets are not liars. They are, however, wrong and making conclusions based on bad data. That's why you track your data over extended periods of time. To get a meaningful data set untainted by confirmation bias. Just thinking back all, "I choose to feel angry," ain't gonna give you meaningful data even if the person doing it believes it wholeheartedly.
I ain't ever seen anybody actually compile a thousand point dataset and conclude their drop rates are sabotaged.
You can keep looking forward to that investigation, buddy. Haha. Burden of proof isn't on me. I could discourage others from playing because of my experience. I gain nothing by investigating. CG is who would lose money. You think I would put in the time and effort for the likes of you? They got the code. Not me. You all post like you're smart but you really aren't that bright. No... I'll just post whenever I experience horrible drops and warn people of it and advise they not play.
Well, your plan to get back at big bad CG will not make it very far as post convincing players to quit the game are against forum TOS. Good Luck!
This thread is addictive, I have such a bad relationship with the array of sensible logic from one side and angry shouts from the other. (I would say angry shouts from both sides, but actually those that know how life works are far more patient than I am, kudos to you all.) If you want to prove someone is wrong, it's up to you not them, just like you prove someone is guilty, not make them prove they are innocent, that is how court and life works. Luck is an abstract concept that just doesn't exist. Flat out. It's a word we have for something that isn't there, so no, there is no such thing as someone who is always unlucky and no such thing as someone who is always lucky. You want me to prove it? I dare you to find someone who is. You want me to prove I am right? I say unicorns are real, prove me wrong. It's the same situation. I was going to quote something here but there are just too many...
Donoff, seems like you would favor the swindler. You can't leave it up to people/corporations to be honest! Corporations have given people cancer or any number of diseases and illnesses and so many people have died not challenging a corporation. No one's dying here but multiple people are experiencing the same thing. And this is only the people who bothered to say anything at all. Could be a glitch and only affect a small portion of players but you don't know that. You know who could find out? CG...
“You can’t leave it up to corporations to be honest!”
Yet you’re demanding they release their data whilst refusing to provide your own?
“Even if we did provide data you would probably say it was fake. Lol.”
All we want is your data. Refusing to provide data because you think we won’t trust it makes me, for one, think that this data does not exist.
I’m going to follow your logic on this, maybe you’ll realise how you sound:
Carbantis in daily challenges are broken. Me and all my guild mates are only ever getting 3 carbantis on the Tarkin daily challenge on a Monday, Thursday, Sunday. Sure, the icon says you can get more but we never do.
I don’t need to provide proof, because I’m telling you me and my mates are experiencing this. And there’s enough of us saying it for it to be probable.
The carbanti challenge is broken and I demand the devs come forward with their data to prove it can award more than 3 carbanti at a time.
I’m going to follow your logic on this, maybe you’ll realise how you sound:
Carbantis in daily challenges are broken. Me and all my guild mates are only ever getting 3 carbantis on the Tarkin daily challenge on a Monday, Thursday, Sunday. Sure, the icon says you can get more but we never do.
I don’t need to provide proof, because I’m telling you me and my mates are experiencing this. And there’s enough of us saying it for it to be probable.
The carbanti challenge is broken and I demand the devs come forward with their data to prove it can award more than 3 carbanti at a time.
Why do you have double drops for the harder to find items like kyrotek when the drop rate ends up getting cut in half? So you got double drops but I'm still spending the SAME amount of energy and getting the same amount of items from energy spent!
Its double drops not double drop rate. This means you get twice the rewards based on the current drop rates. 1 shard now equals 2 shards. Its still a roll of the dice if you get the reward or not.
Donoff, seems like you would favor the swindler. You can't leave it up to people/corporations to be honest! Corporations have given people cancer or any number of diseases and illnesses and so many people have died not challenging a corporation. No one's dying here but multiple people are experiencing the same thing. And this is only the people who bothered to say anything at all. Could be a glitch and only affect a small portion of players but you don't know that. You know who could find out? CG...
"You can't leave it up to people/corporations to be honest!"
Well I guess "people" includes you too so by your logic, since I don't have the exact same experience as you, I can just say your wrong without any proof and move on because I cant rely on you to be honest with your claim.
See how that works? See how your argument is circular? That's why the world requires proof before we condemn people and not just a bare allegation, which is all you provided.
@Paleon You're literally asking for the same thing, defining you as an **** in your own eyes. Before you even give us data you need to collect it, and that is what people want from you, so why not perhaps do that then complain about CG not releasing data that you are also keeping to yourself?
@DarjeloSalas I don't have to show you anything to prove to you that I was getting low drop rates. I did get low drop rates. Who are you? You work for CG? Disappear along with the other naysayers. I'm calling all of you CG Inquisitors from now on. CGIs. Lmfao. You're all a joke.
You actually do have to show us you were getting low drop rates, to prove to us you were getting low drop rates. If you don't want to prove it, don't show us any information that you haven't got, but don't expect anyone to do anything but laugh at you.
I HAVE experienced this. There's no thinking to it. And if you have not then shut up! You and all these others who haven't experienced it, I'm happy for you. Good for you! [Clap] But it's happening to me for a while now. So I'm saying something and you can say whatever bull ya want but try telling me to produce data and that this corporation can't. I'll push for legislation is I need to. But On starting by putting it out there and seeing who else has experienced this.
lol this is great. No thinking required, I feel like I'm right and shut up if you don't agree! That's a scientific approach if ever I saw one. This has all the makings of a witch hunt.
People are getting bad drop rates whether you all like it or not! And we don't have to show you any proof. There's enough of us(who doubt know each other) saying it for it to be probable. Even if someone did provide data you would probably say it was fake. Lol.
No, we would not say your data was fake. We would encourage you to record the data over the long term, show proof of how bad your rates are. If you do this, we expect you will find the same results everyone else finds. If you don't, that would in fact be highly interesting to the community. Without data, your complaints are just noise.
Replies
So when you say hundreds are that mean hundreds of thousands are not. And I agree with that evidence.
Find me a person who flips a coin and gets tails 1000 times in a row, and I’ll show you a liar or a cheater. “Luck” does average out over time. There is such a thing as mathematically impossible.
Besides, nobody has come in here with 1000 drops tracked and complained about rigged rates. I’d take that seriously, and assume something dishonest was taking place. Either them or the devs.
People are crying about a dozen rolls, or a bad day. That’s total garbage to base a grand conspiracy on.
2x0=0 is in fact true. I don't even need evidence about that. That's just a mathemetical reality. It's also completely irrelevant to actual drop rates. Some days you get 0 drops (and x2 = 0), and some days you get 2-3 (or even 5 like I got this morning) and x2 is 4-6 (or 10).
That's not how the world works. If you allege someone is cheating you or in this case "changing the drop rate" then the burden is on you to prove it. And everyone is asking you for your proof to see if there is any credence to your claim, that is natural when someone alleges some wrongful act.
Nobody said you aren’t getting bad drops. You are also getting good drops, and mediocre drops. We are saying that isn’t proof of a wider truth on its own.
Then nobody needs to listen to you or take anything you say seriously.
And there are enough screen shots of fantastic drops to prove it’s just random unless someone wants to compile actual data.
Yeah. I would pick it apart and try to find every flaw I could. That’s science. You come up with an idea, and then try to prove it wrong. Then you show others what you did, and they try to prove it wrong. After hundreds of people have done their best to destroy a theory, and it survives then we start to sort of kind of believe it’s probably true, or at least we’ve figured out something that’s close to true.
But you keep insisting on your fairytales.
OK, so you see the point people make, then? Finally.
Did you see any of them post solid evidence supporting their claims?
I'm looking forward to seeing the results of your investigation. Will you be posting them in this discussion?
Nobody questions, that it happens, when considering only a small number of attempts/battles. However, small sample sizes are irrelevant, when discussing your OP.
It's your claim, which goes against the existing evidence. If you want people to believe you, you do need to provide evidence of your claim, yes.
Yet, none of you provided any evidence, which makes it improbable.
Only one way to find out, really, dear man of science.
Just curious, will you post when you have great drops and encourage people to play more?
So you admit you are going to purposefully leave out relevant data to deceive people to act in line with your agenda to do harm to CG?
Also telling people they “aren’t bright” is insulting and against the forum guidelines.
that's why the burdon of proof lies with the accuser, like @Dnoff423 said...
As I said before, you are completely wrong about how to approach this. You don’t ask a corporation you suspect of dishonesty to provide proof of their innocence. They will mysteriously find that they are innocent 100% of the time.
An outsider has to investigate. And you are in a prime position to do that if you feel it affects you. Track your own drops. Tell others who share your experience to track theirs. Compile the data. Then go through legal channels with the evidence you collect.
As it is the only thing you said is that you experienced EXACTLY what happens when thousands and thousands and thousands of people do something random a small number of times. A few people have below average outcomes in the short term. A bunch will have close to average. A few will have above average outcomes.
If you want sympathy that you had bad drops then I’m genuinely sorry. It sucks getting a bad break. If you want someone to confirm you inaccurate way of looking at the world I have nothing for you.
There is no such thing as statistical proof. But there is absolutely a difference in the strength of statistical evidence.
It does always average out over time. What varies is how long "over time" is and what "average out" means. Yes, a bad run will bring down your average forever, and you will not magically get better drop rates to compensate. But that bad run will be diluted in a large sample set such that its impact is reduced, and your overall results are proportionately brought closer to the average.
Yes, there's always theoretically a chance of anomalous behavior, but the larger the sample size the more remote the chance of behavior so anomalous that it throws your averages outside of a meaningful approximation of the drop rate, to a point where the possibility becomes so remote that bringing it up is just trolling.
You're like the year one psyche student pulling the, "Ah, but you can't prove it," "Ah, but every time Achilles reaches the turtle's location, the turtle's already moved so he'll never catch the tortoise," shenanigans. That's not insight. That's trolling. In reality, Achilles is going to pass the tortoise, sufficiently large data sets converge near the average, and the suggestion that some people have a low luck stat that changes the odds of a fair die is not reasonable just because it cannot be proven impossible.
Now, that said? Confirmation bias is real. Confirmation bias exists. Confirmation bias skews perception and blows the assessment of tiny sample sizes out of proportion. Someone concluding that the dice are rigged because of skewed perception as a result of confirmation bias or tiny data sets are not liars. They are, however, wrong and making conclusions based on bad data. That's why you track your data over extended periods of time. To get a meaningful data set untainted by confirmation bias. Just thinking back all, "I choose to feel angry," ain't gonna give you meaningful data even if the person doing it believes it wholeheartedly.
I ain't ever seen anybody actually compile a thousand point dataset and conclude their drop rates are sabotaged.
Well, your plan to get back at big bad CG will not make it very far as post convincing players to quit the game are against forum TOS. Good Luck!
https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/127295/forum-guidelines
Threads telling people to quit, to stop spending on the game or to lower their review scores.
“You can’t leave it up to corporations to be honest!”
Yet you’re demanding they release their data whilst refusing to provide your own?
“Even if we did provide data you would probably say it was fake. Lol.”
All we want is your data. Refusing to provide data because you think we won’t trust it makes me, for one, think that this data does not exist.
I’m going to follow your logic on this, maybe you’ll realise how you sound:
Carbantis in daily challenges are broken. Me and all my guild mates are only ever getting 3 carbantis on the Tarkin daily challenge on a Monday, Thursday, Sunday. Sure, the icon says you can get more but we never do.
I don’t need to provide proof, because I’m telling you me and my mates are experiencing this. And there’s enough of us saying it for it to be probable.
The carbanti challenge is broken and I demand the devs come forward with their data to prove it can award more than 3 carbanti at a time.
You laugh, but I've seen those posts too...
Its double drops not double drop rate. This means you get twice the rewards based on the current drop rates. 1 shard now equals 2 shards. Its still a roll of the dice if you get the reward or not.
"You can't leave it up to people/corporations to be honest!"
Well I guess "people" includes you too so by your logic, since I don't have the exact same experience as you, I can just say your wrong without any proof and move on because I cant rely on you to be honest with your claim.
See how that works? See how your argument is circular? That's why the world requires proof before we condemn people and not just a bare allegation, which is all you provided.
You actually do have to show us you were getting low drop rates, to prove to us you were getting low drop rates. If you don't want to prove it, don't show us any information that you haven't got, but don't expect anyone to do anything but laugh at you.
I’m picturing him spending the past week pacing back and forth mumbling about drop rates while everyone else enjoys their lives.
lol this is great. No thinking required, I feel like I'm right and shut up if you don't agree! That's a scientific approach if ever I saw one. This has all the makings of a witch hunt.
Gold Jerry, GOLD! Get out of here with your stinking evidence, I've got feelings here! Me too, I'm actually starting to feel sad.
No, we would not say your data was fake. We would encourage you to record the data over the long term, show proof of how bad your rates are. If you do this, we expect you will find the same results everyone else finds. If you don't, that would in fact be highly interesting to the community. Without data, your complaints are just noise.