I don't need to research or collect data to prove to anyone. If I and many others are having the same issue that's a good amount of proof. I am sure someone is collecting data since a lot of you naysayers are saying people always say drops are low without proof to back it up. So you REALLY believe EVERY person that claims this is just disillusioned? I have several people in my guild experiencing the same thing. I see several threads here from people I don't know having the same issue. We're all wrong? None of us kept track of how much energy we spent compared to the shardsor gear we received? Us getting large amounts of useless gear or serious surplus is NOT a coincidence. We're not wrong. The disillusioned are those saying we're wrong. And really, a lot of you think you're smart but you're not. Especially if you can't admit there's a possibility the drop rates are being tampered with to make us spend more money.
Basically, you are interested in anecdotal evidence rather than empirical evidence.
I don't need to research or collect data to prove to anyone. If I and many others are having the same issue that's a good amount of proof. I am sure someone is collecting data since a lot of you naysayers are saying people always say drops are low without proof to back it up. So you REALLY believe EVERY person that claims this is just disillusioned? I have several people in my guild experiencing the same thing. I see several threads here from people I don't know having the same issue. We're all wrong? None of us kept track of how much energy we spent compared to the shardsor gear we received? Us getting large amounts of useless gear or serious surplus is NOT a coincidence. We're not wrong. The disillusioned are those saying we're wrong. And really, a lot of you think you're smart but you're not. Especially if you can't admit there's a possibility the drop rates are being tampered with to make us spend more money.
Basically, you are interested in anecdotal evidence rather than empirical evidence.
Even that anectodal evidence lends zero descriptive power. Most at least come up with "I did X runs, got nothing", here he/she is talking about experience which only makes me think of his/her emotional state while doing the runs.
I don't need to research or collect data to prove to anyone. If I and many others are having the same issue that's a good amount of proof. I am sure someone is collecting data since a lot of you naysayers are saying people always say drops are low without proof to back it up. So you REALLY believe EVERY person that claims this is just disillusioned? I have several people in my guild experiencing the same thing. I see several threads here from people I don't know having the same issue. We're all wrong? None of us kept track of how much energy we spent compared to the shardsor gear we received? Us getting large amounts of useless gear or serious surplus is NOT a coincidence. We're not wrong. The disillusioned are those saying we're wrong. And really, a lot of you think you're smart but you're not. Especially if you can't admit there's a possibility the drop rates are being tampered with to make us spend more money.
See, I read your lettuce analogy and thought you were being sarcastic, because I agreed with every word, someone does need to show they got food poisoning for anyone to listen to them and it would take a lot of illnesses for them to look for a common denominator in the SHIPPING industry. But that's not the point. There are a huge number of people that play this game, and for every person that complains on the forums there will be many more who don't. People are far less likely to comment on how well double drops serve them than the fact they didn't get anything. Just because you see 10 posts and 5 people on your guild, you think its the majority of the game? Please, today I got one drop in all my farms, and guess what, it's happened before, the day before I did a bit better, and who knows what tomorrow brings. A lot of people who complain are actually very close to the 33% margin simply because the more sims you do, the less significant the return looks. So keep a count, run the numbers, and then come whinge at CG because you don't like the way statistics works.
I've gotten 22 shards in 2 days for mission and 21 shards in 2 days for the robot who's name escapes me at the moment.
Double drops are working great for me.[/quote]
I'm sorry SIR this is STAR WARS. They are called DROIDS
"But," he whispered, "it was so artistically done"
The smile faded. The glow in his eyes did likewise... and Thrawn, the last Grand Admiral, was gone.
I don't need to research or collect data to prove to anyone. If I and many others are having the same issue that's a good amount of proof. I am sure someone is collecting data since a lot of you naysayers are saying people always say drops are low without proof to back it up. So you REALLY believe EVERY person that claims this is just disillusioned? I have several people in my guild experiencing the same thing. I see several threads here from people I don't know having the same issue. We're all wrong? None of us kept track of how much energy we spent compared to the shardsor gear we received? Us getting large amounts of useless gear or serious surplus is NOT a coincidence. We're not wrong. The disillusioned are those saying we're wrong. And really, a lot of you think you're smart but you're not. Especially if you can't admit there's a possibility the drop rates are being tampered with to make us spend more money.
People are biased, unreliable, and dishonest. Your experiences are meaningless. That is why science exists. Because feelings are frequently wrong, and need to be tested. These are just threads for people to cry about a couple of bad rolls in a row.
Well, I k ow I'm not disillusioned when I'm buying energy and using it all and not getting a single drop and do ot again and then only getting one drop. I'll just ignore you naysaying know-it-all and discuss it with those that have experienced it.
Is it really that hard to track some data so the community can start to collect it all together? Here is what I've tracked so far:
Are these double drop numbers? So would you divide the percentage in half for regular drop rates?
I'm seeing higher numbers of drops, so obviously EA has not only doubled their drop rewards, but also increased the percentage at which things drop.
Or...perhaps RNG continues to work as it normally does, and some people see lower-than-average values and others see higher-than-average. The main difference is that people who see average or above-average drop rates don't come here to complain.
Well, I k ow I'm not disillusioned when I'm buying energy and using it all and not getting a single drop and do ot again and then only getting one drop. I'll just ignore you naysaying know-it-all and discuss it with those that have experienced it.
Is it really that hard to track some data so the community can start to collect it all together? Here is what I've tracked so far:
Are these double drop numbers? So would you divide the percentage in half for regular drop rates?
I'm calling high jinx on the above data.
Because no one would really be farming a Tusken right?
You want me to show evidence but not the company? How does that sound?
It's you who is accusing them with some invented claims.
It's not the company's job to discredit you but yours to prove that it's more than just a spread of baseless fake information.
And it's CG who claim that drop rates are the same so...
.... And how exactly would you prove them wrong? If you don't trust their claim, would you really trust their 'evidence'? They could easily fabricate evidence. However, if you track your actual results/drops.....
Counterpoint: people making claims without any evidence to back it up are being ridiculous.
CG claim the drop rates are the same without backing it up so... and it's not like they haven't mislead the playerbase or not made any mistakes in these 4 years now have they?
Again, so what? The community have figured out what the drop rates are by tracking drop rates over a large sample size.
You and other conspiracy theorists are simply not producing any data whatsoever to back your claims up. What could the devs say that you would possibly believe, anyway?
For the sake of being more transparent CG could release their own data to compare it with that of the community to clear things up. It won't hurt anyone if they do it.
What would the purpose be? If "the community" already tracked a large number of attempts (100k+ attempts) resulting in a drop rate of 33% overall, then that's the actual overall drop rate - no matter what CG claims.
I don't need to research or collect data to prove to anyone.
If you want your claim to be taken seriously, you do.
If I and many others are having the same issue that's a good amount of proof.
Please describe the issue.
I am sure someone is collecting data since a lot of you naysayers are saying people always say drops are low without proof to back it up. So you REALLY believe EVERY person that claims this is just disillusioned?
I can't really say whether they are or not as long as they don't properly describe their claimed problem.
I have several people in my guild experiencing the same thing.
Really? Well, that's great. What were their drop rates? On how many attempts? Were yours the same?
I see several threads here from people I don't know having the same issue.
Really? Well, that's great. What were their drop rates? On how many attempts?
We're all wrong?
Nobody knows - not even yourself - as long as you don't know your actual drop rate and number of attempts. Nobody knows. That's the whole point. And as long as you (and others who make similar claims without Documenting it) don't document anything, nobody will ever know whether you're wrong or right.
None of us kept track of how much energy we spent compared to the shardsor gear we received?
If you want to compare your drop rates with what others achieved previously, then don't track drops per energy. Track drops per attempt/battle.
Us getting large amounts of useless gear or serious surplus is NOT a coincidence. We're not wrong.
You don't know that. Nobody does.
The disillusioned are those saying we're wrong.
Most are simply saying, that you don't know whether you're wrong or right, and that others documented an overall drop rate of roughly 1/3.
And really, a lot of you think you're smart but you're not. Especially if you can't admit there's a possibility the drop rates are being tampered with to make us spend more money.
There's always a slight possibility, but that's not the point here. The point is whether they actually are tampered with or not. If you want to find out, start researching. Until you do, you won't know anything for sure, and your claims will have no base.
Well, I k ow I'm not disillusioned when I'm buying energy and using it all and not getting a single drop and do ot again and then only getting one drop. I'll just ignore you naysaying know-it-all and discuss it with those that have experienced it.
Is it really that hard to track some data so the community can start to collect it all together? Here is what I've tracked so far:
Are these double drop numbers? So would you divide the percentage in half for regular drop rates?
No, those are already divided in half. I got twice the shards listed.
And yes, I'm farming URoRRuR'R'R. Those are the last three farmable units for me for now.
Yesterday I simmed the vulture droid node and got 18 shards for 15 sims. Today I got 2 shards for 15 sims.
Now if I didn’t bother to look at the big picture, and I was totally clueless about cognitive bias I might get on the forum to cry about my bad day today.
As it is I got 20 shards from 30 sims total which without double drops would be 10/30 which is conveniently exactly 33%. Well.. approximately 33.333333333333333%, but whatever.
The point is if you get what you expect it leaves little to no impression on your brain. It’s forgotten. It becomes background noise. How many pretty decent meals have you had at restaurants that you don’t remember? However, when you have a really bad experience it becomes branded into your brain forever. You remember it because brains are wired to remember unpleasant things they want to avoid. Just as you’ve forgot hundreds of perfectly pleasant meals, one time getting food poisoning and you will NEVER FORGET TO THE DAY YOU DIE.
So if you had a bad drop or even a few, it means nothing. All it means is you are not keeping track of everything. You are selectively remembering bad experiences because that’s how human brains work. Track everything for a while and you’ll see you get the same mediocre drops as everyone else. Stop spreading your superstition, and find something else to complain about.
Track everything for a while and you’ll see you get the same mediocre drops as everyone else.
If we suggest that random numbers in the game are really random or close to it, you make the incorrect assumption. The game has huge player base, and probability laws says that there is a high probability that some amount of extremely unlucky and extremely lucky players exists. And those who are unlucky doesn't care about some "average" numbers, obviously. They also can't have hope that they "catch up" in the future, because, due to the same laws, the probability of future drops isn't linked with past.
It almost feels like there is some mechanic behind the game that makes it so everyone's experience is a little different and some feel lucky and others feel unlucky, but over time it pretty much evens out.
Let's call it an Indiscriminate Figure Producer (tm).
Are double drops COMPLETELY equal across all energy nodes of the game or are they scaled across different nodes to give a percentage that reflects double drops?
Track everything for a while and you’ll see you get the same mediocre drops as everyone else.
If we suggest that random numbers in the game are really random or close to it, you make the incorrect assumption. The game has huge player base, and probability laws says that there is a high probability that some amount of extremely unlucky and extremely lucky players exists. And those who are unlucky doesn't care about some "average" numbers, obviously. They also can't have hope that they "catch up" in the future, because, due to the same laws, the probability of future drops isn't linked with past.
That’s a completely different argument then the, “CG rigs the system to screw us.”
It’s also nonsense. Of course there will be unlucky people. And there will be lucky people. But it averages out over time. Nobody is unlucky 100% of the time. You don’t have to get amazing drops to offset a bad day. After one bad day, a year of 33.33% may raise you up to 33.32% which is within the margins you would expect.
This thread is people who get a few bad rolls pretending that they didn’t also get some good ones, and inventing a conspiracy because they can’t be bothered to collect evidence.
Jacen that is your experience. I have had drops like that with certain items but not with others. How are you and others not understanding that?? Are ya'll mentally challenged?? Stop commenting if you haven't experienced what I'm experiencing. Stop trying to invalidate my experience by telling me about your good one. I bet you and the rest of these people telling me I'm disillusioned tell women that are victims of abuse or **** that they shouldn't have worn a sexy outfit, huh? "I haven't been raaped so you must have provoked it!!" Hard pass on your crap. Experts over ignoramuses! And you're not experts apparently.
So other people having normal/better than normal drop experiences shouldn't invalidate your experience, but your experience should invalidate theirs and they shouldn't comment otherwise? OK. You definitely seem like you believe in science and logic (and English and grammar).
Nobody’s experiences matter for ascertaining broad conclusions. They are single data points that need to be viewed in context. If I have a car accident then I don’t immediately conclude it’s a conspiracy by the evil car manufacturer to make unsafe vehicles. It doesn’t invalidate my experience to say that I don’t get to make up whatever sweeping claims I want.
If we suggest that random numbers in the game are really random or close to it, you make the incorrect assumption. The game has huge player base, and probability laws says that there is a high probability that some amount of extremely unlucky and extremely lucky players exists. And those who are unlucky doesn't care about some "average" numbers, obviously. They also can't have hope that they "catch up" in the future, because, due to the same laws, the probability of future drops isn't linked with past.
There is no luck stat on anyone's character sheet. No one is consistently lucky or unlucky.
There is no such thing as statistical proof, but there is statistical evidence. Bad runs happen, but the point of large data sets is to dilute improbable results so that it averages out to near the truth.
Hundreds of players come on here saying 2x0=0, that’s more than enough “evidence”! It’s not like only 1or 2 players are saying it
Hundreds of other players don't come on here and say 2x4=8 even though that's what they experience. People like to complain. It's human nature. It's not "evidence".
Hundreds of players come on here saying 2x0=0, that’s more than enough “evidence”! It’s not like only 1or 2 players are saying it
Hundreds of posts by the same 8-10 people, not hundreds of people. With the amount of people that play this game, I would expect to see more even people saying "I had bad luck" (or rigged depending on your belief in math).
There are hundreds of thousands of people playing the game who are not saying anything because their results are likely average or above average.
Feel free to shut us all up by showing us how bad your drops are over a large sample. Group together with the other "hundreds" of people you say are also seeing it and put together the data and then get out the pitchforks.
I ran 20 sims for Vet Han and got 22 shards, then I ran 15 sims and got 0. If I posted a screenshot of the 0-15, you would think my luck was bad, but overall, it has been right around expected.
Do they not teach the scientific method in school anymore? Reading this discussion has me seriously worried about the future when multiple people think that their anecdotal, undocumented, personal experiences constitute empirical evidence. Its normal to be skeptical about the drop rates if you're having a particularly bad run, but you can view the data compiled by users who have tested this on a large scale level and the drop rates over the long term appear to be consistent.
Track everything for a while and you’ll see you get the same mediocre drops as everyone else.
If we suggest that random numbers in the game are really random or close to it, you make the incorrect assumption. The game has huge player base, and probability laws says that there is a high probability that some amount of extremely unlucky and extremely lucky players exists. And those who are unlucky doesn't care about some "average" numbers, obviously. They also can't have hope that they "catch up" in the future, because, due to the same laws, the probability of future drops isn't linked with past.
Of course there will be unlucky people. And there will be lucky people. But it averages out over time. Nobody is unlucky 100% of the time.
"It [always] averages out over time" is mathematically false assumption. People who are unlucky on the long run CAN exist. It's just the fact. Yes, the probability is low. But low is not zero. And the more people play the game - the higher the probability that such players will actually exist. So you can't just tell every one who claims to be unlucky "hey, you are lying". Yes, you can ask him for additional evidence (which is good question). Or you can say that it's his own problem and doesn't matter for anyone else (which is completely true). But saying that everyone who says about bad luck are liars or biased isn't very constructive position.
Replies
Basically, you are interested in anecdotal evidence rather than empirical evidence.
Stating a claim without evidence does nothing to bolster an argument.
Even that anectodal evidence lends zero descriptive power. Most at least come up with "I did X runs, got nothing", here he/she is talking about experience which only makes me think of his/her emotional state while doing the runs.
See, I read your lettuce analogy and thought you were being sarcastic, because I agreed with every word, someone does need to show they got food poisoning for anyone to listen to them and it would take a lot of illnesses for them to look for a common denominator in the SHIPPING industry. But that's not the point. There are a huge number of people that play this game, and for every person that complains on the forums there will be many more who don't. People are far less likely to comment on how well double drops serve them than the fact they didn't get anything. Just because you see 10 posts and 5 people on your guild, you think its the majority of the game? Please, today I got one drop in all my farms, and guess what, it's happened before, the day before I did a bit better, and who knows what tomorrow brings. A lot of people who complain are actually very close to the 33% margin simply because the more sims you do, the less significant the return looks. So keep a count, run the numbers, and then come whinge at CG because you don't like the way statistics works.
I've gotten 22 shards in 2 days for mission and 21 shards in 2 days for the robot who's name escapes me at the moment.
Double drops are working great for me.[/quote]
I'm sorry SIR this is STAR WARS. They are called DROIDS
The smile faded. The glow in his eyes did likewise... and Thrawn, the last Grand Admiral, was gone.
People are biased, unreliable, and dishonest. Your experiences are meaningless. That is why science exists. Because feelings are frequently wrong, and need to be tested. These are just threads for people to cry about a couple of bad rolls in a row.
Are these double drop numbers? So would you divide the percentage in half for regular drop rates?
Or...perhaps RNG continues to work as it normally does, and some people see lower-than-average values and others see higher-than-average. The main difference is that people who see average or above-average drop rates don't come here to complain.
I'm calling high jinx on the above data.
Because no one would really be farming a Tusken right?
hehehe. Sorry, I just had to.
.... And how exactly would you prove them wrong? If you don't trust their claim, would you really trust their 'evidence'? They could easily fabricate evidence. However, if you track your actual results/drops.....
What would the purpose be? If "the community" already tracked a large number of attempts (100k+ attempts) resulting in a drop rate of 33% overall, then that's the actual overall drop rate - no matter what CG claims.
If you want your claim to be taken seriously, you do.
Please describe the issue.
I can't really say whether they are or not as long as they don't properly describe their claimed problem.
Really? Well, that's great. What were their drop rates? On how many attempts? Were yours the same?
Really? Well, that's great. What were their drop rates? On how many attempts?
Nobody knows - not even yourself - as long as you don't know your actual drop rate and number of attempts. Nobody knows. That's the whole point. And as long as you (and others who make similar claims without Documenting it) don't document anything, nobody will ever know whether you're wrong or right.
If you want to compare your drop rates with what others achieved previously, then don't track drops per energy. Track drops per attempt/battle.
You don't know that. Nobody does.
Most are simply saying, that you don't know whether you're wrong or right, and that others documented an overall drop rate of roughly 1/3.
There's always a slight possibility, but that's not the point here. The point is whether they actually are tampered with or not. If you want to find out, start researching. Until you do, you won't know anything for sure, and your claims will have no base.
No, those are already divided in half. I got twice the shards listed.
And yes, I'm farming URoRRuR'R'R. Those are the last three farmable units for me for now.
Now if I didn’t bother to look at the big picture, and I was totally clueless about cognitive bias I might get on the forum to cry about my bad day today.
As it is I got 20 shards from 30 sims total which without double drops would be 10/30 which is conveniently exactly 33%. Well.. approximately 33.333333333333333%, but whatever.
The point is if you get what you expect it leaves little to no impression on your brain. It’s forgotten. It becomes background noise. How many pretty decent meals have you had at restaurants that you don’t remember? However, when you have a really bad experience it becomes branded into your brain forever. You remember it because brains are wired to remember unpleasant things they want to avoid. Just as you’ve forgot hundreds of perfectly pleasant meals, one time getting food poisoning and you will NEVER FORGET TO THE DAY YOU DIE.
So if you had a bad drop or even a few, it means nothing. All it means is you are not keeping track of everything. You are selectively remembering bad experiences because that’s how human brains work. Track everything for a while and you’ll see you get the same mediocre drops as everyone else. Stop spreading your superstition, and find something else to complain about.
If we suggest that random numbers in the game are really random or close to it, you make the incorrect assumption. The game has huge player base, and probability laws says that there is a high probability that some amount of extremely unlucky and extremely lucky players exists. And those who are unlucky doesn't care about some "average" numbers, obviously. They also can't have hope that they "catch up" in the future, because, due to the same laws, the probability of future drops isn't linked with past.
Let's call it an Indiscriminate Figure Producer (tm).
Hard empirical evidence to prove a statistical fact will always be better than eye witness testimony or experience.
A scientific theory must be proven by scientific evidence otherwise it is just hypothesis.
Are double drops COMPLETELY equal across all energy nodes of the game or are they scaled across different nodes to give a percentage that reflects double drops?
That’s a completely different argument then the, “CG rigs the system to screw us.”
It’s also nonsense. Of course there will be unlucky people. And there will be lucky people. But it averages out over time. Nobody is unlucky 100% of the time. You don’t have to get amazing drops to offset a bad day. After one bad day, a year of 33.33% may raise you up to 33.32% which is within the margins you would expect.
This thread is people who get a few bad rolls pretending that they didn’t also get some good ones, and inventing a conspiracy because they can’t be bothered to collect evidence.
Nobody’s experiences matter for ascertaining broad conclusions. They are single data points that need to be viewed in context. If I have a car accident then I don’t immediately conclude it’s a conspiracy by the evil car manufacturer to make unsafe vehicles. It doesn’t invalidate my experience to say that I don’t get to make up whatever sweeping claims I want.
There is no such thing as statistical proof, but there is statistical evidence. Bad runs happen, but the point of large data sets is to dilute improbable results so that it averages out to near the truth.
Hundreds of other players don't come on here and say 2x4=8 even though that's what they experience. People like to complain. It's human nature. It's not "evidence".
Hundreds of posts by the same 8-10 people, not hundreds of people. With the amount of people that play this game, I would expect to see more even people saying "I had bad luck" (or rigged depending on your belief in math).
There are hundreds of thousands of people playing the game who are not saying anything because their results are likely average or above average.
Feel free to shut us all up by showing us how bad your drops are over a large sample. Group together with the other "hundreds" of people you say are also seeing it and put together the data and then get out the pitchforks.
I ran 20 sims for Vet Han and got 22 shards, then I ran 15 sims and got 0. If I posted a screenshot of the 0-15, you would think my luck was bad, but overall, it has been right around expected.
Confirmation bias.
"It [always] averages out over time" is mathematically false assumption. People who are unlucky on the long run CAN exist. It's just the fact. Yes, the probability is low. But low is not zero. And the more people play the game - the higher the probability that such players will actually exist. So you can't just tell every one who claims to be unlucky "hey, you are lying". Yes, you can ask him for additional evidence (which is good question). Or you can say that it's his own problem and doesn't matter for anyone else (which is completely true). But saying that everyone who says about bad luck are liars or biased isn't very constructive position.
"No one"? Can you prove it? Please do.